Tag Archives: crypto

Crypto’s perfect storm: Broken support, hawkish Fed, and Nasdaq lockstep

Crypto’s perfect storm: Broken support, hawkish Fed, and Nasdaq lockstep

The confluence of macro uncertainty, technical breakdowns, and sector-specific stressors has created a volatile environment that tests the resilience of risk assets across the board. This turbulence lies behind Bitcoin’s breach of the US$100,000 level, a psychological and structural support that, once broken, triggered a cascade of leveraged liquidations totaling US$1.3 billion.

This event did not occur in isolation. Instead, it amplified and was amplified by broader financial dynamics, especially the tightening correlation between crypto and equities, particularly the Nasdaq-100, which reached an unusually high 0.95 over the past 24 hours. These developments, layered atop structural pressures in Bitcoin mining and shifting monetary policy expectations, signal more than just a routine correction. They reflect deeper questions about crypto’s role in a risk-on/risk-off world and the sustainability of its recent rally.

The breakdown below US$100,000 marks a pivotal moment for Bitcoin’s price trajectory. This level had served not only as a price anchor but also as a signal of institutional confidence and market maturity. Its breach suggests that sentiment has soured rapidly, possibly due to a combination of overextended positioning and macro headwinds.

The data underscores this fragility. Open interest in Bitcoin derivatives rose 4.21 per cent immediately before the drop, indicating a dense concentration of long positions that were suddenly exposed when the market turned. In leveraged markets, such crowded trades can magnify price moves exponentially, as margin calls force further selling into a thin market. The resulting feedback loop accelerated the decline and pushed many positions underwater. Now, all eyes are on the 200-day exponential moving average around US$95,000. Should Bitcoin stabilise above this level, it could signal that the worst of the liquidation cascade has passed. But a failure to hold would likely invite another wave of forced deleveraging, especially if broader risk sentiment continues to deteriorate.

Compounding this technical vulnerability is the reassertion of crypto’s tie to equity markets, particularly to the Nasdaq. The 0.95 correlation with the Nasdaq-100 over 24 hours, its highest since June 2025, confirms that institutional participants continue to treat crypto as a risk-on proxy rather than a distinct asset class. This linkage became especially pronounced as technology shares sold off sharply, with the Nasdaq dropping 2.29 per cent amid concerns over AI-related earnings and the fading likelihood of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut by January 2026 has collapsed to just 20 per cent, down from 49 per cent a week earlier. This shift reflects increasingly hawkish commentary from Fed officials, who appear reluctant to ease policy despite the recent government shutdown and market volatility. For crypto markets, this means less near-term tailwind from monetary policy and more sensitivity to equity market swings. As long as institutional capital flows remain dictated by macro liquidity expectations, crypto will struggle to decouple from the broader risk narrative.

Adding another layer of pressure is the growing distress in the Bitcoin mining sector. Bitfarms’ announcement that it plans to exit mining by 2027 after reporting a US$46 million quarterly loss highlights the mounting economic challenges facing miners. The company cited unsustainable energy costs and declining profitability, conditions exacerbated by a 41 per cent drop in industry-wide mining revenue since October. Historically, miners have been consistent sellers of Bitcoin, liquidating approximately 1,000 BTC per day to cover operational expenses. As margins compress, this selling pressure could intensify, especially if more miners follow Bitfarms’ strategic pivot toward AI infrastructure. While such transitions may make business sense in the long run, they erode near-term confidence in Bitcoin’s network fundamentals. A sustained decline in network hashrate would be a red flag, signaling that more miners are capitulating under financial stress. This dynamic not only increases selling pressure but also raises concerns about network security and decentralization if smaller operators are forced offline.

The macro backdrop adds further complexity. Although the US government has resumed operations after a 43-day shutdown, the resolution offers little clarity on fiscal sustainability or the path of monetary policy. Markets initially welcomed the end of the impasse, but this relief was short-lived as investors refocused on the Fed’s tightening stance. The modest rise in Treasury yields, 10-year yields climbing to 4.11 per cent and two-year yields to 3.59 per cent, reflects both the removal of shutdown-related uncertainty and a reassessment of rate cut probabilities. Meanwhile, gold declined 1.1 per cent to US$4,151.86 per ounce, suggesting that safe-haven demand weakened as the immediate fiscal crisis abated. The dollar also dipped slightly, closing at 99.16, but this move appears more technical than fundamental. Crucially, Friday’s upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI) data will serve as a litmus test for inflation expectations. Should the data come in hotter than anticipated, it could further delay rate cut hopes and extend the selloff across risk assets, including crypto.

Within this environment, sentiment has plunged into Extreme Fear, as reflected by a Fear & Greed Index reading of 22. Historically, such extremes have often marked contrarian buying opportunities, especially in crypto markets where panic selling tends to overshoot fundamentals. However, the current context may be different. Unlike previous fear-driven corrections, today’s selloff emerges against a backdrop of structural shifts, a re-tethering to equity markets, miner distress, and a less accommodative macro regime. These factors suggest that the usual buy the dip narrative may not apply, at least not immediately. For long-term believers in Bitcoin’s value proposition, the current pullback could represent a strategic entry point, but only if one assumes that the macro environment will eventually ease and that mining sector stress is transitory. Short-term traders, on the other hand, must contend with the very real possibility of further downside if equities continue to lead the move or if miner selling accelerates.

In conclusion, this market wrap captures more than a routine correction. It reflects a convergence of technical, macro, and sector-specific pressures that challenge crypto’s independence as an asset class. Bitcoin’s fall below US$100,000, its tight correlation with the Nasdaq, and the exodus from mining all point to a moment of reckoning. The path forward hinges on whether crypto can reassert its unique narrative, decouple from equities, absorb miner sell pressure, and regain institutional confidence in a higher-for-longer rate environment.

Until then, volatility will remain elevated, and the market will stay at the mercy of macro crosscurrents and technical thresholds. Traders and investors alike must navigate this terrain with caution, recognising that the current fear may be justified, but also that in crypto, fear often plants the seeds of the next bull run.

 

Source: https://e27.co/cryptos-perfect-storm-broken-support-hawkish-fed-and-nasdaq-lockstep-20251114/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

No CPI, no confidence: How data paralysis is fueling crypto’s November slide

No CPI, no confidence: How data paralysis is fueling crypto’s November slide

The macro landscape this week sits in a state of suspended animation, defined less by new developments than by their absence. At the heart of this inertia is the ongoing US government shutdown, which began on October 1 and has now stretched into its sixth week, becoming the longest in the nation’s history. This institutional paralysis has created a critical data void, most notably delaying the release of the October Consumer Price Index report that was originally scheduled for Thursday, November 13.

The White House has even conceded that this key inflation gauge for October may never be officially released, leaving a permanent blind spot in the economic record. This vacuum of information forces markets to anchor their expectations on whatever data trickles out, elevating the importance of tonight’s release of weekly initial jobless claims, which are expected to show a figure of 218,000 for the week ending November 8.

In this context of uncertainty, risk sentiment has turned cautious. US equities closed mixed on Wednesday, with the Dow showing modest strength while the tech-heavy Nasdaq declined, a divergence that speaks to a subtle but important rotation within the market. This caution was also evident in the Treasury market, where yields edged lower as investors welcomed tentative signs of progress in Congress toward a resolution that would reopen the government. The 10-year yield’s retreat to 4.06 per cent reflects this flight to safety and a renewed hope for a political compromise. The US Dollar Index, for its part, remained largely flat, closing at 99.47, signaling that traders are in a holding pattern, unwilling to make significant directional bets until the political fog lifts and the next concrete piece of economic data arrives.

The crypto market, however, has been unable to insulate itself from this broader macro malaise. It has fallen a further 0.56 per cent over the last 24 hours, a move that extends a more painful 11.7 per cent monthly decline. This persistent weakness is not a single-factor event but rather a perfect storm of three distinct, reinforcing pressures: a clear pattern of institutional profit-taking, a sharp contagion event in the derivatives market, and an uncomfortably tight correlation with the performance of US tech stocks.

The first of these bearish forces is institutional retrenchment. While spot Bitcoin ETFs have been a major structural support for the market since their launch, their influence has waned in recent weeks. Data from trackers shows a clear trend of capital flight, with the total assets under management for these funds dropping from a recent high of around US$140.7 billion to US$138.9 billion over a single week, a decline of 8.7 per cent. This outflow is more than a simple portfolio rebalance; it signals a deeper shift in sentiment among large, sophisticated players. As the 10x Research CEO warned, a sense of fatigue has set in, driven by Bitcoin’s notable underperformance in 2025 relative to both the soaring price of gold and the resilient gains in the tech-heavy Nasdaq. For institutions that bought the post-ETF approval rally, the current environment offers a compelling reason to trim their exposure and lock in what gains remain.

The second pressure point is a stark reminder of the fragility embedded in the crypto ecosystem’s leverage. The US$63 million liquidation cascade on the Popcat memecoin, centered on the Hyperliquid exchange, was not an isolated incident but a canary in the coal mine. This single event triggered a broader wave of deleveraging across the entire crypto market, evidenced by a 14.7 per cent drop in total open interest. This is the process of overextended, speculative positions, particularly in the volatile altcoin sector, being forcibly closed out, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of selling that spills over into the entire asset class. The subsequent cooling of perpetual funding rates, which fell by 41 per cent in just 24 hours, confirms a sharp and sudden reduction in speculative appetite. The market is in a defensive crouch.

The third and perhaps most inescapable headwind is crypto’s persistent and powerful link to traditional equities, specifically the Nasdaq-100. The market’s 24-hour price action has shown a correlation of 0.88 with the Nasdaq-100, its strongest link to the index since March 2025. This statistic is a powerful testament to the fact that, for all its claims of being a separate, uncorrelated asset, crypto remains a risk asset first and foremost. Its fate is now inextricably tied to the same macro forces that move the markets for Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. Therefore, any pre-market weakness in the Nasdaq, such as the 1.2 per cent drop seen on Thursday, driven by fears over sticky inflation and a more hawkish Federal Reserve, will inevitably be mirrored in a retreat across the crypto board.

In conclusion, the market’s current malaise is a confluence of its own internal dynamics and the external macroeconomic environment. The derivatives market is in a state of recovery from its recent squeeze, with perpetual funding rates having turned slightly positive again at plus 0.0014 per cent. However, this technical stabilisation is overshadowed by a collapse in market confidence, as evidenced by the Fear and Greed Index plunging into the Extreme Fear territory at a reading of 25.

The path forward is clouded by the absence of the CPI data, but its eventual release or its continued absence will be a critical test. The key question on every trader’s mind is whether Bitcoin can hold the critical psychological and technical support level of US$100,000 if the October inflation data, when it finally emerges, shows a year-over-year increase that exceeds the 3.4 per cent threshold, which would likely cement a risk-off posture across all markets.

Until then, all assets remain chained to this unprecedented political and data-driven uncertainty.

Source: https://e27.co/no-cpi-no-confidence-how-data-paralysis-is-fueling-cryptos-november-slide-20251113/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Crypto crashes 3.7 per cent despite US shutdown deal: US$260M liquidations and whale exodus trigger sell-off

Crypto crashes 3.7 per cent despite US shutdown deal: US$260M liquidations and whale exodus trigger sell-off

The past 24 hours have exposed the fragility beneath recent crypto market gains, delivering a sobering reminder that sentiment can shift abruptly even amid macroeconomic progress. At first glance, the backdrop appears favourable. The US Senate passed a government funding bill on Monday evening, November 10, that would extend operations through January, marking a decisive step toward ending what has become the longest government shutdown in American history.

With a 60 to 40 vote, the chamber cleared the path for the measure to advance to the Republican-controlled House, where Speaker Mike Johnson signalled readiness to pass it swiftly and forward it to President Donald Trump for signature. This legislative breakthrough should, in theory, stabilise risk sentiment and restore confidence in the continuity of US fiscal governance.

The market’s reaction has been conspicuously muted, even negative. While US equities closed mixed on Tuesday, with the Dow surging 1.18 per cent, the S&P 500 edging up just 0.21 per cent, and the Nasdaq slipping 0.25 per cent, the crypto market tumbled by 3.67 per cent over the same 24-hour window. This divergence underscores a growing decoupling between legacy risk assets and digital ones, at least in the short term.

The Nasdaq 100, a traditional proxy for tech-driven risk appetite, now shows a sharply negative 24-hour correlation with crypto at negative 0.77. This marks the most pronounced short-term divergence in months, suggesting that crypto traders are acting on distinct catalysts absent in broader equity markets.

Three interlocking forces drove this sell-off: a cascade of leveraged liquidations, coordinated whale exits in Ethereum, and macro-level caution despite apparent political resolution. The first, and perhaps most mechanically significant, was the unwinding of excessive leverage in futures markets. Over US$260 million in crypto positions were liquidated in just one day, with longs accounting for 84 per cent of Bitcoin and 90 per cent of Ethereum losses.

This follows a 10 per cent weekly increase in open interest, indicating that speculators had aggressively positioned for further upside. When prices dipped, even modestly, margin calls triggered a feedback loop of forced selling, amplifying the initial decline into a full-blown washout.

Compounding this technical pressure was a strategic retreat by institutional and whale participants in the Ethereum ecosystem. Data confirms that two large holders offloaded 178,080 ETH, valued at approximately US$528 million, in what appears to be a coordinated profit-taking manoeuvre. This move coincided with the worst weekly outflow period for Ethereum spot ETFs since their launch. US$796 million fled the nine US-listed funds over the prior week, with every single ETF posting net redemptions.

Such synchronised outflows suggest more than just retail sentiment fatigue. They reflect a loss of institutional conviction at current valuations. With Ethereum’s RSI hovering near 38, a level often deemed oversold, the asset lacks organic buying pressure to absorb such large-scale exits, leaving technical support at US$3,360 as the next critical threshold.

Meanwhile, the macroeconomic data released this week offers a mixed signal. On one hand, the ADP National Employment Report published on November 5 showed that private employers added 42,000 jobs in October, the first monthly gain since July. Annual pay growth held steady at 4.5 per cent, signalling persistent wage pressures. However, a separate weekly ADP metric covering the four weeks ending October 25 paints a bleaker picture.

Private-sector employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs per week during that window. This internal contradiction, monthly gains versus deteriorating weekly trends, fuels uncertainty about labour market resilience heading into year-end. With the Federal Reserve still data-dependent, such ambiguity keeps rate-cut expectations tentative, despite gold rising to US$4,118.58 per ounce on hopes of easing monetary policy.

The US Dollar Index edged down 0.13 per cent to 99.46, while Brent crude rose 1.72 per cent to US$65.16 per barrel, reflecting cautious optimism about global demand. Crypto failed to participate in this risk-on drift. Instead, it exhibited classic risk-off behaviour, not because of direct Fed commentary or CPI surprises, but due to internal market structure vulnerabilities, namely, too much leverage and too little institutional anchoring.

From a strategic standpoint, this correction may be healthy. The 2.99 per cent weekly gain preceding the drop had stretched technical indicators and elevated funding rates into unsustainable territory. The liquidation event serves as a necessary recalibration, clearing weak hands and resetting leverage ratios.

The simultaneous ETF outflows and whale selling in Ethereum suggest deeper concerns about the token’s near-term utility or valuation relative to Bitcoin. While Bitcoin continues to benefit from its digital gold narrative and ETF inflows, Ethereum faces scrutiny over scaling progress, staking yields, and its role in a potential Web4 stack that increasingly integrates AI and decentralised finance in novel ways.

Looking ahead, all eyes turn to two pivotal levels. Bitcoin’s psychological and technical floor sits at US$60,000, and Ethereum’s support rests at US$3,360. A break below either could trigger further algorithmic selling and sentiment deterioration.

Conversely, suppose the government funding bill passes the House and is signed into law, currently estimated at a 96 per cent probability by November 15. In that case, it may restore enough macro calm to reignite risk appetite. Crypto’s fate will ultimately depend less on political theatre and more on whether organic demand can replace speculative leverage and institutional outflows. Until then, volatility remains the only certainty.

 

Source: https://e27.co/crypto-crashes-3-7-per-cent-despite-us-shutdown-deal-us260m-liquidations-and-whale-exodus-trigger-sell-off-20251112/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j