August 15th, 2025

Crypto bleeds and Wall Street collapses as 0.9 PPI shock triggers Fed panic right now

Markets reacted with caution yesterday as an unexpected surge in the US Producer Price Index for July rattled investors and reignited concerns over persistent inflation. The PPI climbed 0.9 per cent month-over-month, far exceeding the consensus forecast of 0.2 per cent, and pushed the annual rate to 3.3 per cent.

Analysts attribute this jump largely to businesses beginning to pass on higher import costs from recent tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy components, also rose sharply by 0.9 per cent, lifting its yearly figure to 3.7 per cent, the highest since March.

This data suggests inflationary pressures are broadening beyond consumer goods, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s path to easing monetary policy. The Bureau of Labour Statistics highlighted significant increases in produce prices and services, underscoring how trade policies are filtering through the supply chain. This development highlights the double-edged sword of protectionist measures.

While tariffs aim to bolster domestic industries, they often translate into higher costs for businesses and ultimately consumers, fuelling inflation at a time when the economy is already navigating post-pandemic recovery challenges. I believe this could force the Fed into a more measured approach, balancing growth risks against the spectre of resurgent price pressures.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added to the market’s uncertainty with his clarification on recent remarks about interest rates. On Wednesday, Bessent had suggested that short-term rates might need to drop by 150 to 175 basis points to reach a neutral level, sparking speculation about aggressive Fed action.

However, he emphasised yesterday that he was not advocating for a specific 50 basis point cut in September, instead pointing to economic models that indicate current rates are too restrictive. Bessent reiterated that his comments were observational, not prescriptive, telling interviewers that the Fed should consider a gradual reduction, perhaps starting with 25 basis points before accelerating if needed.

This backpedaling came amid criticism that the administration was pressuring the independent central bank, a recurring theme under President Trump. Market-implied odds for a September rate cut, as tracked by CME Group’s FedWatch tool, adjusted back to around 90 per cent following Bessent’s statements, aligning with levels seen before Tuesday’s milder CPI release.

Prior to the PPI data, odds had briefly surged toward certainty for a cut, but the hotter wholesale inflation figures tempered enthusiasm, with swaps now pricing in about a 96 per cent chance of at least a quarter-point reduction. From my perspective, Bessent’s interventions, while data-driven, risk undermining Fed credibility.

In an era of heightened political influence on economic policy, such public commentary could erode investor confidence, especially if it leads to perceptions of policy interference. I think the Fed will proceed cautiously, prioritising data over rhetoric, but this episode underscores the tense interplay between fiscal and monetary authorities in 2025.

Equity markets felt the brunt of this mixed sentiment, with Wall Street’s recent rally stalling as major indices closed essentially flat. The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones all hovered near unchanged, reflecting a tug-of-war between optimism over potential rate relief and worries about inflation’s resurgence. Investors appeared to shrug off the PPI surprise initially, but as the day progressed, profit-taking emerged, particularly in tech-heavy sectors sensitive to higher yields.

Bond markets, however, reacted more decisively, with short-term US Treasury yields climbing sharply. The two-year yield rose six basis points to 3.73 per cent, while the benchmark 10-year yield settled near 4.29 per cent. This inversion in the yield curve’s movement signals renewed bets on a less dovish Fed, as traders anticipate fewer or smaller cuts if inflation proves stickier than expected.

In Asia, the Hang Seng and CSI 300 indices surrendered early gains to finish down 0.37 per cent and 0.08 per cent respectively, as regional investors locked in profits from the prior rally. Today’s early trading sessions opened mixed, with some indices edging higher on hopes of global stimulus, while US equity futures pointed to a similarly uneven start.

My take here is that this sideways trading masks underlying fragility. With tariffs amplifying cost pressures, equities could face headwinds if corporate earnings begin to reflect squeezed margins. I remain cautiously optimistic for tech and growth stocks, but only if the Fed delivers on easing without stoking further inflation.

The US dollar capitalised on the higher yields, rebounding 0.4 per cent on the Dollar Index to recoup recent losses. This strength pressured commodities, with gold dipping 0.6 per cent to close at US$3,336 per ounce, as a firmer dollar and elevated rates diminished its appeal as a non-yielding asset. Oil prices, conversely, bucked the trend, advancing 1.8 per cent to around US$67 per barrel.

This uptick stemmed from dim prospects for a breakthrough at tomorrow’s US-Russia summit in Alaska, where Presidents Trump and Putin are set to discuss energy cooperation, sanctions, and geopolitical tensions. Officials from both sides have downplayed expectations, with Trump warning of potential consequences for Russian oil exports if agreements falter. Harsher sanctions could disrupt supplies, pushing Brent crude above US$80 if tensions escalate.

The summit, hosted at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, marks a high-stakes diplomatic effort amid ongoing conflicts, but low hopes have traders positioning for volatility. In my opinion, oil’s resilience here is telling. Geopolitical risks often trump economic data in driving energy prices, and with Russia’s role as a major exporter, any summit fallout could exacerbate global supply strains. This as a reminder that energy markets remain vulnerable to non-economic factors, potentially offsetting any demand slowdown from higher rates.

Amid this macro turbulence, the cryptocurrency market presented a contrasting narrative, with Bitcoin demonstrating remarkable strength. The flagship digital asset surged past US$124,000 overnight before retreating to approximately US$120,991 early Thursday, still marking a 0.6 per cent gain over the past 24 hours. This move initially rode bets on Fed rate cuts fueling risk assets, but momentum waned post-PPI, as inflation doubts clouded the easing outlook.

A key on-chain indicator, Bitcoin’s realised price, has overtaken its 200-week moving average for the first time this cycle, a crossover not seen since 2020. The realised price, calculated as the realised capitalisation divided by total supply, represents the average cost basis of all Bitcoin holders, essentially the price at which coins last moved on-chain. Currently, this metric stands above the 200-week MA, which averages Bitcoin’s closing prices over roughly four years to gauge long-term cycle trends.

Historical data shows this flip coincided with the onset of the 2021 bull run, maintaining the orientation until 2022’s downturn. In the 2017 cycle, while no full crossover occurred, a retest propelled prices higher. Analysts like those at Mitrade and AInvest note that when realised price stays above the 200-WMA, bull markets tend to extend, signalling sustained holder profitability and reduced selling pressure.

This crossover, shared by analyst Van Straten via charts spanning the past decade, illustrates how Bitcoin’s uptrend has naturally elevated the realised price as investors transact at higher levels, repricing their cost bases upward. The graph reveals a clear pattern: the metric’s surge above the MA often heralds prolonged uptrends, as it indicates the average investor is in profit, discouraging mass capitulation. In 2020, the timing aligned perfectly with the bull market’s ignition, driven by institutional adoption and stimulus. Even in 2017, where realised price never dipped below, a touchpoint sparked explosive growth.

Recent X posts echo this bullish sentiment, highlighting the three-year milestone and historical precedents for extended rallies. From my standpoint, this technical milestone is profoundly significant. In a market still tethered to macro events, Bitcoin’s on-chain resilience suggests it’s maturing as an asset class, less swayed by short-term inflation blips and more by network fundamentals. I predict this could propel BTC toward US$200,000 by year-end, especially if rate cuts materialise, drawing in sidelined capital.

Altcoins, however, bore the inflation hit more acutely, underscoring crypto’s internal divergences. Ether fell 2.3 per cent to US$4,577, Solana dropped 2.9 per cent, XRP slid 5.1 per cent, and Dogecoin tumbled 7.7 per cent. These riskier tokens, often amplified versions of Bitcoin’s moves, suffered as sentiment shifted toward caution, with traders scrutinising every economic release ahead of the Fed’s September decision.

If rates remain elevated longer, the upside case for ETH and SOL dims, as higher borrowing costs curb speculative flows into DeFi and memecoins. Yet, Bitcoin’s dominance in such environments typically rises, as seen in past cycles. While altcoins face near-term murkiness, the broader crypto ecosystem benefits from Bitcoin’s leadership. Innovations like layer-2 scaling on Ethereum could mitigate downside, but patience is key until macro clarity emerges.

Overall, yesterday’s developments paint a picture of a global economy at a crossroads, where inflation’s stubbornness clashes with easing hopes, and geopolitical wildcards like the Alaska summit loom large. In crypto, Bitcoin’s realised price crossover stands as a beacon of bullish potential, backed by historical patterns and on-chain data. Drawing from financial analyses, I see this as the start of an uptrend that could define the cycle.

Investors should monitor Fed signals closely, but in my estimation, the confluence of technical strength and potential policy shifts positions digital assets for outperformance, even as traditional markets grapple with uncertainty. This dynamic reinforces my belief in crypto’s role as a hedge against fiat volatility, urging diversified portfolios in these turbulent times.

Source: https://e27.co/crypto-bleeds-and-wall-street-collapses-as-0-9-ppi-shock-triggers-fed-panic-right-now-20250815/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

August 10th, 2025

How North Korea’s US$1.5 billion hack exposed Asia’s crypto weaknesses

It began, as so many epochal crimes do, with a single breach. But by the time the dust had settled on the Bybit hack, nearly US$1.5 billion in digital assets had vanished, exposing not just the vulnerabilities of Asia’s fledgling crypto markets but the growing reach of North Korea’s cyber operatives.

The hack on February 21 represented a quantum leap in the scale and sophistication of cyber operations emanating from North Korea, according to a report released last month by American blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis.

It accounted for nearly 70 per cent of all stolen digital assets globally in the first half of 2025 – laying bare the widening security cracks in Asia’s digital ecosystem and signalling the arrival of a new era of cybercrime that is increasingly targeting victims around the globe, from Bybit’s Dubai headquarters to the United States and beyond.

Last year, North Korea-linked cybercriminals were responsible for an estimated US$1.3 billion in losses, then the highest figure on record. But this year is shaping up to be even worse for the victims, with Pyongyang’s state-sponsored hackers on track to reap even greater illicit rewards, according to the Chainalysis report.

Experts warn that the sheer size of the Bybit heist is not the most alarming element. The degree of technical proficiency, coupled with clear signs of state involvement, have raised concerns that the stolen funds are being funnelled directly into North Korea’s arms and weapons programmes, fuelling instability far beyond the digital realm.

“While North Korea typically doesn’t claim responsibility for these cyber exploits, extensive evidence has linked them to sophisticated hacking groups like the Lazarus Group,” Diederik van Wersch, regional director for Asean at Chainalysis, told This Week in Asia.

The Lazarus Group, a shadowy collective of state-sponsored cybercriminals infamous for siphoning off billions from the cryptocurrency industry, is thought to be behind the Bybit hack. The group’s modus operandi? Exploiting security vulnerabilities in order to finance the North Korean regime by employing complex laundering methods to obscure the trail of stolen funds.

“These aren’t merely cybersecurity incidents, they represent significant national security concerns,” van Wersch warned. “The UN has confirmed that North Korea uses these stolen funds to finance its weapons programmes, making these attacks a direct threat to international security.”

The United States and its allies have repeatedly accused Pyongyang of using cyberattacks to fund its military and nuclear ambitions.

Pyongyang has never officially acknowledged any connection to the Lazarus Group, but it is believed to be unique in its state-directed quest for financial gain through hacking. Its operations, which include advanced social engineering and the infiltration of crypto platforms via compromised IT staff, have set a new standard for financial cybercrime.

Asia: cybercrime epicentre?

The dangers are not confined to any one country. Southeast Asia – Cambodia, Myanmar and Laos, in particular – has now become a global hub for cybercrime, cybersecurity experts say, driven by a toxic mix of weak rule of law, authoritarian protection and economic desperation.

International sanctions and the closure of criminal platforms such as Russia’s Garantex and Cambodia-based Huione Guarantee have barely made a dent in the volume of illicit cyber transactions, which Chainalysis estimates hit US$51 billion worldwide in 2024 alone.

Against this backdrop, North Korea’s relentless focus on cryptocurrency theft had been propelled by US-led sanctions strangling its other revenue streams, said Anndy Lian, a Singapore-based intergovernmental blockchain adviser.

“It seems likely that this phenomenon could inspire other countries, particularly those facing political instability or sanctions, to engage in similar activities,” he said. “However, replicating North Korea’s capabilities requires significant investment in cyber infrastructure and expertise, which may be challenging.”

Research suggests that while North Korea leverages a mixture of services to launder its gains, other nations that lack its technical sophistication would indeed struggle to emulate its success.

The technical prowess of Pyongyang’s hackers was now such that it allowed them to “target even well-versed cybersecurity professionals”, Lian said, adding that their increasingly elaborate laundering networks complicated the recovery of stolen assets.

In Asia’s other cybercrime hotspots, such as Myanmar and Cambodia, the focus has tended to be more on scamming and money laundering, but this threat matrix now appears to be evolving.

According to Chainalysis, 2025 has seen a marked expansion of cybercriminal activities: more laundering, larger cross-border networks and a disturbing rise in physical violence.

‘Wrench attacks’

For the hackers’ victims the pain can be both financial and physical. Chainalysis in its report described a “particularly disturbing subset” of recent thefts known as “wrench attacks”.

Far less sophisticated than the image of an invisible hand picking the digital pockets of unsuspecting crypto adopters, these actual assaults rely on violence and threats of force to extract assets from victims.

The kidnapping and murder of Chinese-Filipino tycoon Anson Que, former CEO of Ellison Steel, earlier this year provided a chilling example of these so-called wrench attacks in action. Investigators believe his death was linked to ransom payments laundered through casino gaming and digital shell accounts to obscure the money trail.

Meanwhile, Asia’s digital boom has in many ways made it a magnet for cybercriminals. Japan, Indonesia and South Korea now rank among the world’s leading victims of stolen digital funds, reflecting not only their increasing adoption of crypto but also their exposure to North Korean hackers – with the infamous 2016 Bank of Bangladesh cyber heist being an early and illuminating case in point.

That US$81 million theft from the bank’s account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York was one of the largest cyber heists ever recorded at the time. The attack, attributed to the Lazarus Group, was ultimately traced back to servers in the Philippines, where much of the stolen money was laundered through casinos.

A decade on and the “velocity and consistency” continues to grow exponentially, Chainalysis warns. It took hackers just 142 days this year to surpass the US$2 billion mark in global losses, compared to 214 days in 2022. At this rate, total losses could exceed US$4.3 billion by year’s end, the report warned.

The soaring prices of cryptocurrencies and other digital tokens have only made things worse. Bitcoin, for example, hit an all-time high of more than US$123,000 last month, buoyed in part by favourable signals from US President Donald Trump’s administration and a growing global appetite for crypto assets.

Chainalysis data shows that attackers are now deliberately targeting high-value individual wallets, with bitcoin theft accounting for a disproportionate share of losses. As asset values rise, the incentive for thieves grows ever larger.

“The current crypto market momentum also presents increased opportunities for attackers,” van Wersch said, adding that the liquidity and cross-border nature of digital tokens made them especially attractive targets.

Experts warn that advanced economies such as South Korea and Japan are especially exposed to hacks due to their proximity to North Korean actors and their thriving crypto markets, while emerging economies like Indonesia are also at risk as digital finance gains in popularity.

“Geopolitical tensions may motivate North Korea to target these nations, as seen in reports linking attacks to historical adversaries,” Lian said of Japan and South Korea.

Building smarter defences

Amid the surge in cybercrime, there are signs of hope. Advances in tracing cryptocurrency transactions now allow for near-instant tracking of funds and the transparency of blockchain technology provides some measure of visibility into illicit flows.

“As jurisdictions like Hong Kong move forward with progressive stablecoin legislation, the focus should be on building robust security alongside innovation,” van Wersch said.

“The key is implementing sophisticated real-time threat monitoring systems and leveraging advanced blockchain analytics that can help prevent attacks before they occur.”

Real-time monitoring and predictive technologies are set to become indispensable, as hackers probe for vulnerabilities across the region’s digital infrastructure. Crypto exchanges, in turn, must demonstrate to regulators and users alike that they can safeguard funds against increasingly resourceful adversaries, according to van Wersch.

Jake Sims, founding partner of Operation Shamrock – a global coalition working to disrupt Southeast Asian cybercrime networks – stressed the complexity of taking on state-linked actors, as well as the risks of financial contagion.

“The use of crypto for laundering cyber-scam proceeds certainly erodes public and regulatory confidence in digital assets,” he said. “Unresolved enforcement gaps in Southeast Asia risk contaminating broader digital finance ecosystems.”

Earlier this year, Hong Kong was ranked as the second-most crypto-friendly city in the world, behind only the Slovenian capital of Ljubljana, by migration platform Multipolitan.

Regional rival Singapore, meanwhile, was recently named as one of the most crypto-obsessed countries globally, after research from digital asset exchanges ApeX Protocol and Taurex found nearly one in four Singaporeans owned cryptocurrency in 2024.

Recent high-profile attacks have exposed the urgency with which robust defences need to be built. In July last year, US$235 million was stolen from Indian crypto exchange WazirX by North Korean hackers masquerading as legitimate users – a breach that ultimately led to the closure of the platform and a restructuring plan by its Singapore-based parent Zettai.

Lian said such incidents had exposed persistent weaknesses in the security of even major exchanges and risked provoking a regulatory backlash that could stifle digital innovation.

Hong Kong, which has spent years steadily building a regulatory framework for virtual assets, has so far licensed 10 virtual asset trading platforms including New York-based Bullish, which in February became the first international crypto exchange to gain approval in the city.

Experts are now calling for regional and international cooperation, from establishing intelligence-sharing platforms to harmonising cryptocurrency regulation, to help reduce risks.

Joint efforts under the aegis of the United Nations might exert much-needed diplomatic pressure, Lian suggested, while targeted sanctions could help stem the tide of cyber crimes.

A “harm minimisation approach” targeting revenue streams and increasing reputational costs and legal expenses for jurisdictions that host cybercriminals was another option, Sims said.

Regulators needed to strengthen both domestic security and cross-border collaboration, he argued, possibly through task forces operating outside the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

“A subregional task force outside formal Asean structures may actually be more effective for constraining harms emerging in high-risk contexts, like Cambodia where political will is lacking,” Sims said.

Despite differing international treatment, Sims said that North Korea and Cambodia shared “significant similarities … in terms of the degree of consolidated coercive power, the degree of state involvement in criminal activity, and the global reach of state-embedded criminal industries”.

The recent border conflict with Thailand could also lead “Cambodia’s scam-invested elite to look away from the Thai border as they evaluate new locations”, he said. “But it is important to note that scam compounds in Cambodia are everywhere.”

So what of Asia’s digital future? While new tools built using artificial intelligence can flag scam scripts and analyse transaction patterns for signs of deep-faked identities, Sims cautioned that technology alone was insufficient to combat cybercrime.

“These tools will need to be complemented by human intelligence, as well as policy reforms and enforcement mechanisms,” he said. “Without political will and cross-border cooperation, AI and other technological interventions will only offer partial mitigation.”

For now, it would seem that no one is immune. The Bybit hack may have set a new record, but it is unlikely to be the last. Asia’s digital future will depend on what happens next.

Source: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3321262/how-north-koreas-us15-billion-hack-exposed-asias-crypto-weaknesses

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

August 6th, 2025

The perfect storm: Jobs plunge, tariffs hit, and crypto volatility soars

Global risk sentiment has taken a noticeable hit recently, and it’s not hard to see why. A weaker-than-expected US ISM services PMI report for July, dropping to 50.1 from 50.8 in June, has raised eyebrows. Any reading below 50 signals contraction, and while 50.1 is just above that line, it’s a close call that suggests the services sector, a massive chunk of the US economy, is losing steam.

Firms are cutting jobs too, with the employment index plunging to 46.4, one of the lowest levels since the pandemic shook things up. This points to tepid demand and rising costs squeezing businesses, and it’s a red flag for anyone watching the broader economic picture.

Then there’s the trade situation, which feels like throwing fuel on an already flickering fire. President Trump has put out word that he’s gearing up to slap tariffs on chips and pharmaceuticals, with the latter starting small but potentially ramping up to a jaw-dropping 250 per cent down the road.

He’s also planning to hike tariffs on Indian goods substantially, and he means to do it fast, within the next 24 hours. These moves could rattle global supply chains, jack up prices for everything from tech to medicine, and sour trade ties with a big player like India. Markets hate uncertainty, and this is a textbook case of it.

The US stock markets didn’t waste time reacting. The S&P 500 dropped 0.5 per cent, the Dow Jones edged down 0.1 per cent, and the Nasdaq took a 0.7 per cent hit. Investors are clearly jittery, pulling back from riskier bets as they digest the economic slowdown signals and the tariff threats. US Treasuries, meanwhile, had a mixed day after two sessions of gains.

The 10-year yield ticked up 1.8 basis points to 4.210 per cent, while the 30-year yield slipped 1.1 basis points to 4.780 per cent. That split tells a story of its own, hinting at confusion over where interest rates and inflation might head next, especially with talk of a Federal Reserve rate cut picking up steam.

Speaking of the Fed, the US Dollar Index, or DXY, is hanging out near recent lows, closing slightly down at 98.78 after last Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. A softer dollar could give US exports a boost, but it also means imports might get pricier, which could stoke inflation just when the economy looks shaky. Gold, always a go-to when things feel uncertain, climbed 0.2 per cent, riding the wave of that weaker dollar and bets on a Fed rate cut coming soon.

On the flip side, Brent crude took a 1.3 per cent dive to US$67 a barrel, thanks to news that the Kremlin might pause air strikes to dodge Trump’s threat of secondary sanctions. That’s a geopolitical chess move that could steady oil prices or shift the conversation with the US, depending on how it plays out.

While the US markets nursed their wounds, Asian stock markets caught a second wind on Tuesday. Investors over there are feeling optimistic, pricing in a 90 per cent chance of a Fed rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. That kind of monetary easing could pump some life into global growth, and Asian markets opened higher this morning, shrugging off the gloom stateside. US equity index futures suggest a mixed open back home, so it’s clear the world’s not moving in lockstep on this one.

The crypto angle: Bitcoin, altcoins, and market mood

Now, let’s zoom in on the cryptocurrency market, where things are just as messy but with a twist of their own. Bitcoin recently slid to US$112,000, and normally, you’d expect altcoins to perk up when the big dog stumbles, maybe even kick off an altcoin season. That hasn’t happened this time. Solana’s down 9.45 per cent over the past week, XRP’s off 5.48 per cent, and Dogecoin’s taken a 10.80 per cent beating. The altcoin crowd isn’t catching a bid, and that’s got people wondering what’s up.

Over the last 30 days, Bitcoin’s dominance, its share of the total crypto market cap, has slipped by nearly 5.5 per cent. Meanwhile, Ether’s been on a tear, jumping 40 per cent. You’d think that might mean traders are diving into riskier assets, but the broader altcoin slump tells a different story. It looks more like folks are cashing out Ether’s gains rather than piling into the next big thing.

The OTHERS index, which tracks altcoins outside the top 10 by market cap, crashed 18.7 per cent in just 10 days before bouncing back a bit. That’s a clear sign of investors running from the high-risk, high-reward corners of the market, mirroring the cautious vibe globally.

Bitcoin itself is holding the spotlight, though, and not without reason. Its price just retested a key weekly uptrend line, a level that’s sparked big moves before. Back in early 2023, it broke out of a downtrend after a similar retest and shot up over 95 per cent. In 2024, it did it again, climbing 171 per cent past US$73,000.

Now, in August 2025, it’s bounced off that same ascending support, and analysts are eyeing a short-term target of US$123,300, with a longer-term goal of US$150,000. There’s even talk of an inverse head and shoulders pattern on a 2-day chart, a bullish setup that could push Bitcoin to US$170,000 if it plays out. Volume’s backing the breakout, moving averages are turning up, and the neckline at US$110,000 is holding as support. That’s a 40-50 per cent upside from where we sit, which is no small potatoes.

Adding fuel to the fire, a whale has placed a massive leveraged long bet on Bitcoin, and parabolic chart projections are floating around, hinting at another wild ride. Big bets like that can juice the market, but they also bring volatility, and a wrong move could spark liquidations. Still, the technicals are lining up for a potential rally, and history suggests this trendline retest could be the start of something big.

Piecing it together: What’s driving all this?

So, what’s the bigger picture here? The global risk retreat ties straight back to the US economy, showing cracks. The services sector slowdown and job cuts signal weaker growth ahead, and Trump’s tariff plans are stirring the pot, threatening to disrupt trade and hike costs. Stock markets in the US are feeling the heat, while Asia’s betting on a Fed lifeline to keep things humming. Gold’s up, oil’s down, and the dollar’s soft, all classic moves when uncertainty reigns.

In crypto, the story’s a bit split. Altcoins are floundering, suggesting investors are playing it safe or pocketing gains rather than chasing the next moonshot. Bitcoin, though, looks poised for a breakout, backed by solid technicals and some heavy hitters betting big. It’s a tale of two markets, caution on one side, opportunity on the other.

My take: Risks and rewards in a shaky world

Here’s where I weigh in. The US data is worrisome, no doubt, and those tariffs could make a challenging situation worse, hitting consumers and businesses alike. But the Fed’s got room to step in, and if they cut rates, it could cushion the blow and give markets a lift, especially outside the US. Asia’s already banking on that, and they might be onto something.

Crypto’s trickier. Altcoins look stuck, and I wouldn’t hold my breath for a sudden rally there. Too many folks are sitting on the sidelines or cashing out. Bitcoin’s another story. The setup feels legit, and if it breaks out, US$150,000 or even US$170,000 isn’t crazy talk. That said, the macro risks, like a deeper US slowdown or a trade war flare-up, could derail it. Leverage in the mix makes me nervous, too. Volatility cuts both ways.

For anyone playing these markets, it’s about balance. Keep an eye on the Fed, watch how those tariffs land, and don’t sleep on Bitcoin’s next move. Diversifying’s smart, there’s too much up in the air to go all-in anywhere.

Source: https://e27.co/the-perfect-storm-jobs-plunge-tariffs-hit-and-crypto-volatility-soars-20250806/