October 21st, 2025

Gold at record highs, crypto on a knife’s edge: Contradictions in a risk-on world

I see broad optimism coexists with deep structural vulnerabilities. At the heart of this dynamic lies the S&P 500, which remains technically constructive despite recent volatility. However, this strength is not evenly distributed. The rally is overwhelmingly concentrated in a narrow cohort of AI-linked equities, with AI-related stocks now accounting for 43 per cent of the index’s total market capitalisation.

This level of concentration creates a precarious foundation, as the overall health of the market hinges on the performance of a select few firms. Investors are increasingly discerning, favouring publicly listed companies with proven profitability over private, unprofitable ventures that promise future AI breakthroughs but lack current earnings.

This shift reflects a maturing of the AI investment thesis, where the market demands tangible monetisation rather than speculative potential. The upcoming 2026 earnings cycle will serve as a critical stress test, as these AI leaders must demonstrate a clear and scalable path to converting their technological edge into sustained revenue and profit growth.

This selective bullishness unfolds against a backdrop of a supportive macroeconomic environment. The 10-year US Treasury yield has recently dipped to 3.98 per cent, a level that signals a market expectation of a dovish Federal Reserve trajectory. Investors are now pricing in up to five rate cuts by September 2026, which would bring the Federal Funds Rate down to 2.75 per cent.

This anticipated monetary easing acts as a powerful tailwind for risk assets, providing a safety net that encourages investors to stay engaged in the market. Compounding this effect is the favourable seasonal trend that typically characterises the year-end period, creating a setup that is historically conducive to positive returns. Investor sentiment remains a study in contradictions.

While a significant 60 per cent of fund managers believe equities are overvalued, they are simultaneously positioned as “nervous longs,” maintaining high exposure to emerging markets, the highest level since February 2021. This barbelled strategy, which pairs long equity positions with investments in stable, high-yield sectors like telecoms and healthcare while simultaneously shorting the US dollar, reveals a deep-seated caution. Within this cautious framework, the utilities sector stands out as a “boring but brilliant” opportunity, with analysts anticipating double-digit earnings growth in the third quarter of 2025, offering a haven of predictable returns in an otherwise speculative market.

A key barometer of this fragile confidence is the price of gold, which has reached a record high of US$4,356.30 per ounce. This surge is primarily driven by persistent central bank buying, a trend that has been a cornerstone of the gold bull market that began in 2001. Historical analysis of that previous decade-long run suggests the current cycle may only be at its midpoint, providing a long-term bullish narrative.

However, the recent steepness of the price trajectory has raised alarms, as sharp corrections often follow such rapid ascents. The metal now sits at a critical crossroads, with its future path dependent on external geopolitical and political factors. A de-escalation of global tensions or a swift resolution to the US government shutdown would remove key drivers of safe-haven demand, posing a significant downside risk to the gold price.

The immediate catalyst for the latest market moves was a wave of positive quarterly earnings that alleviated fears about the health of the regional banking sector, thereby reviving global risk appetite. A significant policy development in Japan further amplified this positive sentiment. The Financial Services Agency has proposed a landmark reform that would allow domestic banks to buy, hold, trade, and custody Bitcoin and other digital assets, treating them similarly to traditional securities like stocks and government bonds.

This move is a seismic shift for a nation that has been a cautious but steady participant in the crypto space. Major institutions like Mitsubishi UFJ are already developing stablecoins, and this regulatory green light would create a powerful, regulated on-ramp for Japan’s over 12 million crypto account holders, channeling institutional capital directly into the market. This development was the primary driver behind the recent gains in Bitcoin and BNB, which are seen as the most direct proxies for institutional adoption.

The crypto market’s 0.78 per cent rise over the last 24 hours, however, tells a more complex story than just a bullish regulatory headline. The surge in perpetuals trading volume by 65.85 per cent to US$1.56 trillion, coupled with a 6.88 per cent decline in open interest, paints a picture of a market in flux. This data suggests that traders are actively closing out their highly leveraged positions in the wake of last week’s US$16 billion in liquidations, and are now cautiously re-entering the market with new, more conservative bets.

This is further confirmed by the sharp 152 per cent increase in funding rates over the past day, indicating a return of speculative interest, albeit a more measured one. From a technical perspective, the market found a crucial support level at the US$3.6 trillion market capitalisation mark, which corresponds to the 78.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement of its recent uptrend.

With the RSI-14 indicator exiting oversold territory at 33.21, many traders viewed the preceding seven-day, six per cent selloff as a prime buying opportunity. However, the lack of a broad-based rally, evidenced by a weak Altcoin Season Index of just 26, shows that this optimism is largely confined to the largest, most established cryptocurrencies.

In conclusion, the markets are navigating a delicate balance. The powerful, narrow rally in AI stocks and the supportive macro outlook provide a strong foundation, but the extreme concentration of risk and cautious investor positioning reveal an underlying fragility. The record gold price is a testament to lingering uncertainty.

At the same time, the crypto market’s reaction to Japan’s banking reforms shows how a single, well-targeted policy shift can ignite a new wave of institutional optimism. The critical question moving forward is whether these sector-specific catalysts can withstand a broader macroeconomic shock.

If US equity markets were to extend their losses following a wave of disappointing earnings from the more than 900 firms reporting this week, the pressure on Bitcoin to hold its key US$109,000 support level would be immense. The negative 24-hour correlation of -0.58 between crypto and the Nasdaq suggests that in a true risk-off scenario, the sector-specific bullish narrative from Japan may be quickly overwhelmed by the tide of broader market fear. The next few weeks will be a crucial test of whether the market’s current resilience is a sign of true underlying strength or merely a calm before a more significant storm.

Source: https://e27.co/gold-at-record-highs-crypto-on-a-knifes-edge-contradictions-in-a-risk-on-world-20251021/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

September 24th, 2025

Markets on edge: Fed ambiguity fuels risk-off mood as Aster surges amid crypto bloodbath

Global markets showed signs of caution this week as investors digested conflicting messages from Federal Reserve officials on future interest rate moves.

Chair Jerome Powell emphasised uncertainties in the labour market and inflation during his recent comments, avoiding clear guidance on a potential October cut while highlighting ongoing challenges for policymakers. This ambiguity contributed to a retreat in risk sentiment, with Wall Street closing lower on Tuesday amid concerns over tech stock valuations.

Wall Street and commodities react

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.19 per cent, the S&P 500 fell 0.55 per cent, and the Nasdaq declined 0.95 per cent. Treasury yields eased slightly, with the 10-year note down four basis points to 4.11 per cent and the two-year yield slipping one basis point to 3.59 per cent.

The US dollar index held steady with a minor dip of 0.08 per cent to 97.26, reflecting limited movement amid the mixed Fed outlook. Gold prices rose 0.5 per cent to US$3,764.59 per ounce, drawing safe-haven buying as geopolitical tensions simmered and expectations for a rate cut lingered.

Brent crude oil rose 1.6 per cent to US$67.63 per barrel, supported by disruptions to Russian supply from Ukrainian strikes and escalating NATO frictions. Asian equities opened weaker today, though US futures pointed to a modest rebound at the open.

Crypto extends risk-off decline

The cryptocurrency market mirrored this broader risk-off tone, shedding 0.64 per cent over the past 24 hours and extending a seven-day slide of 4.46 per cent. This downturn closely aligned with equity movements, as evidenced by a strong correlation of 0.91 with the Nasdaq-100 over the same period.

A massive liquidation event on September 22 wiped out US$1.8 billion in long positions, primarily on exchanges, triggering a cascade that erased US$150 billion from the overall crypto market cap. Ethereum bore the brunt, with over $500 million in liquidations, outpacing Bitcoin and amplifying losses across altcoins due to high leverage in those segments.

Regulatory uncertainty added fuel to the fire, as the SEC delayed approvals for altcoin ETFs, dampening investor enthusiasm and prompting a cooldown in momentum trading. Open interest across derivatives fell 3.3 per cent as traders unwound positions, signalling a broader deleveraging amid fears of further volatility.

Technical indicators painted a grim picture, with Bitcoin’s RSI dipping to 20.69, indicating extreme oversold conditions, yet rebounds remained weak, underscoring persistent risk aversion. Bitcoin tested its US$105,000 support level, and a breach could spark another 10 to 15 per cent correction, potentially dragging the market lower if global sentiment sours further.

Aster’s breakout amid market weakness

Amid this gloom, Aster emerged as a standout performer, surging 39.27 per cent in the last 24 hours and boasting an astonishing 2,376 per cent gain over seven days. This rally stemmed from the completion of its APX-to-ASTER token migration on September 22, a 1:1 swap that unlocked US$704 million in ASTER tokens for trading and injected fresh liquidity. The project, rebranded from APX Finance, drew significant attention through new exchange listings and perceived backing from Binance and its founder Changpeng Zhao, often called CZ.

Whale activity intensified post-migration, with an Aster project multi-signature wallet transferring 80 million APX tokens valued at around US$132 million, further boosting trading volumes. By September 23, Aster’s market cap reached US$3.4 billion, a sharp rise fuelled by hype around its decentralised perpetual futures and spot trading platform.

Built on a multi-chain framework with support for up to 100x leverage on select pairs, Aster positioned itself as a high-yield alternative in the DeFi space, attracting traders seeking aggressive opportunities amid the broader market slump. Social media buzz amplified the momentum, with posts highlighting CZ’s strategic involvement as a bid to reclaim DeFi influence from centralised exchanges.

Aster’s rise invited inevitable comparisons to Hyperliquid, an established decentralised exchange specialising in perpetual futures on its custom Layer-1 blockchain. Hyperliquid gained traction after a viral airdrop in late 2024, coinciding with an industry-wide rally following Donald Trump’s reelection.

By August 2025, Hyperliquid surpassed Ethereum and Solana in user fee revenues, commanding a 75 to 80 per cent market share in perpetual DEX volumes at its peak. Its token, HYPE, traded at a US$15 billion market cap as of September 23, with daily volumes hitting US$200 billion and a total value locked exceeding US$670 million. Hyperliquid’s efficiency stemmed from its on-chain matching engine paired with an off-chain orderbook, enabling low-latency execution and deep liquidity for professional traders.

Community-driven initiatives, like proposals for a native stablecoin USDH backed by institutional partners such as State Street and VanEck, further solidified its ecosystem. In contrast, Aster’s US$2.5 billion market cap and US$20 billion in September volumes paled against Hyperliquid’s dominance, but it flipped the latter in daily perpetual futures volumes for three consecutive days, generating higher fees temporarily.

Innovation or hype? The road ahead

In my view, Aster’s explosive entry injects healthy competition into the perpetual DEX arena, where demand for leveraged trading remains robust despite market headwinds. Narratives labelling Aster as a Hyperliquid killer echo past hype, like Solana challenging Ethereum, but history shows room for multiple innovators rather than zero-sum outcomes. Hyperliquid’s battle-tested infrastructure, with 97 per cent of revenues funnelled into HYPE buybacks and a lean team of 11 delivering consistent upgrades, gives it a durable edge over newcomers.

Aster benefits from Binance ecosystem ties and CZ’s endorsement, potentially accelerating adoption through BNB Chain integration and higher leverage caps, but its rapid ascent carries risks of sharp reversals, as seen in on-chain data showing engineered growth patterns that may lack sustainability. Beginners should approach with caution, given the volatility inherent in fresh projects; swings can erase gains in a single candle, as skeptics on X noted.

Ultimately, both platforms could thrive if they carve distinct niches, Hyperliquid for institutional-grade perps and Aster for yield-focused DeFi plays. This dynamic might even spur broader innovation, benefiting users in a sector still recovering from deleveraging shocks.

Looking ahead, the crypto market’s fragility persists, with liquidation risks and regulatory delays capping upside. If Bitcoin holds above US$105,000 and the Fed signals a tilt dovish, a relief rally could ensue, but geopolitical uncertainties and equity correlations suggest choppy waters. Aster’s story adds intrigue, proving that even in downturns, targeted narratives can drive outsized moves, but long-term success demands more than initial hype.

Source: https://e27.co/markets-on-edge-fed-ambiguity-fuels-risk-off-mood-as-aster-surges-amid-crypto-bloodbath-20250924/

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

March 21st, 2025

Global economy on edge: What it signals for investors amid economic uncertainty

The global financial landscape today, March 21, 2025, is a complex tapestry woven with threads of uncertainty, cautious optimism, and shifting economic priorities. Let’s unpack this and offer my perspective on what’s driving these dynamics, where things might be headed, and what it all means for investors, policymakers, and everyday people keeping an eye on their financial futures.

Global risk sentiment and central bank ambiguity

The global risk sentiment being described as “tentative” feels like an apt reflection of the moment we’re in. Central bank meetings, which are typically a cornerstone for market stability, seem to have left us with more ambiguity than clarity. It’s not uncommon for these gatherings—whether it’s the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, or others—to set the tone for monetary policy expectations, influencing everything from interest rates to currency strength.

But when they raise “more questions than answers,” as the Market Wrap notes, it signals a lack of consensus or a hesitancy to commit to bold moves. Perhaps central bankers are grappling with the same uncertainties as the rest of us: inflationary pressures that refuse to fully subside, geopolitical tensions exacerbated by trade policies, and a global economy that’s still finding its footing post-pandemic.

My take is that this ambiguity is less about indecision and more about a deliberate wait-and-see approach. Central banks are likely holding their cards close, waiting for clearer signals from corporate earnings and trade developments before making significant policy shifts.

Corporate earnings, tariffs, and market reactions

Speaking of corporate earnings, they’re poised to be the next big litmus test for the markets. Investors are hungry for guidance, and rightly so. With tariff fears casting a long shadow, the performance of major companies could either bolster confidence or deepen the unease.

In the US, where the MSCI US index slipped by 0.2 per cent, the energy sector’s modest 0.4 per cent gain stands out as a bright spot. This uptick aligns with the rise in Brent crude prices to US$75 per barrel, fuelled by OPEC+’s new schedule for oil output cuts.

It’s a reminder that energy markets remain a critical driver of sentiment, especially as supply constraints—like the US sanctions on a Chinese refinery tied to Iranian oil—tighten the screws further. For American investors, the upcoming earnings season will be a chance to see if companies can navigate these headwinds, particularly with new tariffs looming on the horizon.

Those tariffs, announced by US President Donald Trump to take effect on April 2, are a game-changer. The promise of both broad reciprocal tariffs and sector-specific measures suggests a continuation of his administration’s aggressive trade stance.

From my perspective, this move is less about economic protectionism in a vacuum and more about geopolitical leverage. Trump’s strategy seems to hinge on using tariffs as a bargaining chip—pressuring trading partners into concessions while signaling strength to domestic audiences. The timing, just over a week from now, adds urgency to the mix.

Markets hate uncertainty, and with Asian equities already showing mixed responses and US equity futures pointing to a flat open, it’s clear that investors are bracing for turbulence. The delay of the European Union’s proposed tariff on American whiskey this week feels like a small reprieve, perhaps a diplomatic nod to avoid escalating tensions further, but it’s a drop in the bucket compared to the broader tariff storm brewing.

In China, the focus on bellwethers like Xiaomi Corp. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. is particularly telling. These tech giants have been at the heart of China’s recent stock surge, a rally that’s defied global headwinds to some extent. Investors are now asking whether this momentum is sustainable or if it’s a house of cards built on speculative exuberance.

My view is that China’s market resilience reflects a mix of domestic policy support and a pivot by companies to diversify away from US-centric supply chains—a direct response to past tariff pressures. Xiaomi’s push into emerging markets and Tencent’s dominance in digital ecosystems could provide the earnings firepower needed to keep the rally alive. But if these reports disappoint, it might expose cracks in China’s economic facade, especially as US sanctions and tariffs tighten the noose on key sectors like refining.

Financial indicators and the energy-crypto divide

Shifting to the financial indicators, the US Treasury yields dropping—with the 10-year at 4.24 per cent and the 2-year at 3.96 per cent—suggests a flight to safety amid the uncertainty. Lower yields typically signal that investors are seeking the relative security of government bonds over riskier assets, a trend reinforced by the US Dollar index’s 0.4 per cent gain as it consolidates recent losses. Gold holding firm above US$3,000 per ounce further underscores this cautious mood—it’s the classic safe-haven play.

Yet, there’s a paradox here: Brent crude’s 1.7 per cent rise indicates that not all risk assets are out of favour. My interpretation is that we’re seeing a bifurcated market—energy and commodities holding up due to supply-side dynamics, while equities and bonds reflect broader trepidation about growth prospects.

Now, let’s dive into the cryptocurrency angle, which adds another layer of intrigue. Bitcoin’s market sentiment hitting a two-year low, as per CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index of 20, is a stark warning. This index, blending ten metrics like network activity and investor behaviour, paints a picture of a “weak environment” unlikely to support a sustained rally.

Historically, Bitcoin needs a score above 60 to fuel significant price surges, and prolonged periods below 40 align with bear markets. As someone who’s tracked crypto’s rollercoaster ride, I see this as a natural ebb in the cycle. The euphoria of past bull runs—often tied to macroeconomic stimulus or institutional adoption—has given way to a sober reality.

Regulatory scrutiny, energy cost debates, and now tariff-induced economic uncertainty could be dampening enthusiasm. For Bitcoin holders, this might feel like a gut punch, but it’s not necessarily a death knell. Markets move in waves, and a bearish phase could set the stage for a stronger rebound if fundamentals like adoption or halving effects kick in later.

Ethereum, meanwhile, offers a glimmer of hope amid the gloom. Its price hovering around US$1,970, with a key support level at US$1,861, suggests resilience. The nine per cent recovery earlier this week, followed by a 3.5 per cent dip, shows volatility but also potential. If that US$1,861 support holds, a push toward the March 7 high of US$2,258 isn’t out of the question. The technicals back this up: the RSI climbing to 40 from an oversold 30 indicates fading bearish momentum, though it needs to break 50 for a confirmed recovery.

The MACD’s bullish crossover and rising green histograms above zero add to the case for upward strength. From my standpoint, Ethereum’s outlook hinges on broader market sentiment and its ability to differentiate itself from Bitcoin’s struggles. If tariff fears ease or corporate earnings surprise to the upside, ETH could ride that wave. But a break below US$1,861 would open the door to a drop toward US$1,700—a level that could test the resolve of even the most ardent HODLers.

The interconnectedness of markets

Stepping back, what strikes me most about this Market Wrap is the interconnectedness of it all. Tariffs don’t just affect trade balances; they ripple through equity markets, commodity prices, and even cryptocurrencies. Central bank hesitancy amplifies the noise, leaving corporate earnings as the next beacon.

My point of view is cautiously pragmatic: we’re in a transitional phase where old playbooks—whether for stocks, bonds, or crypto—are being rewritten. Investors should watch China’s tech giants for signs of durability, lean into energy’s relative strength, and brace for tariff-driven volatility. For crypto enthusiasts, patience might be the best strategy—Bitcoin’s malaise and Ethereum’s teetering recovery suggest a market in purgatory, awaiting a catalyst.

In conclusion, the global economy today feels like a tightrope walk. The stakes are high, and the safety net is fraying. I see my role as cutting through the noise to spotlight the data and trends that matter. Right now, that means recognising the weight of tariffs, the pivotal role of earnings, and the fragile state of risk assets like crypto.

We’re not in freefall, but we’re not on solid ground either—April 2, when those tariffs hit, could be the tipping point that defines the next chapter.

Source: https://e27.co/global-economy-on-edge-what-it-signals-for-investors-amid-economic-uncertainty-20250321/