Bitcoin halving is the most anticipated event of the crypto industry that occurs once every four years. According to the Bitcoin halving countdown, April 18, 2024, is the date when Bitcoin is expected to mint its 840,000 block and subsequently undergo its fourth halving.
From an investor’s perspective, halvings are seen as milestone events that have ushered crypto bull markets. For miners, halvings bring challenging business conditions where miner revenues are cut by half and production costs per Bitcoin theoretically double.
In this article, we conduct an in-depth Bitcoin halving analysis, as well as provide potential post-halving price scenarios and tips for both investors and miners from industry experts on how to prepare for the fourth Bitcoin halving cycle.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin is expected to undergo its fourth halving on April 18, 2024.
- Historical charts showed Bitcoin prices took between 12 to 18 months to peak post-halving.
- The introduction of spot BTC ETFs has created unprecedented market conditions.
- Graeme Moore, the head of tokenization at Polymesh Association, predicted that the price of BTC could go as high as $100,000 past halving in 2024.
- Anndy Lian, an intergovernmental blockchain expert, predicted that the BTC price post-halving has the potential to surge 10% higher than its all-time high, which currently surpasses $73,000.
- With more funds flowing into BTC ETFs, Lian added, the BTC price could go up an additional 30% by the end of the next quarter.
- Yuya Hasegawa, an analyst at the crypto exchange Bitbank, expected a strong rally during the latter half of this year.
How to Prepare for the Next Bitcoin Halving
Tips for Investors
The crypto market is unpredictable, but that shouldn’t keep investors from learning about historical patterns and possible outcomes to stay ahead of the curve.
Here is how investors can prepare for the Bitcoin halving event.
1. No Near-Term BTC Price Increase Guaranteed
Financial markets are forward-looking. Trades are made based on the potential of future returns. Therefore, it may come as no surprise that investors have been accumulating Bitcoin since the fourth quarter of 2023 in preparation for Bitcoin’s fourth halving, having seen BTC prices surge in past halving cycles.
As of March 13, 2024, Bitcoin prices have gained over 70% year-to-date and hit new all-time highs of over $73,000 without seeing a significant correction in the first three months of 2024.
Given the predictable and anticipated nature of halving events, you should keep in mind that rational investors are most likely to buy Bitcoins ahead of the event.
Therefore, the Bitcoin halving event does not guarantee an immediate uptick in Bitcoin prices. We could even see a sell-the-news event as euphoria around Bitcoin halving fades away.
2. Positive Long-Term Impact of Halving
Over the mid-to-long term, halving is expected to have a positive impact on the price of Bitcoin due to the reduction of BTC supply. Supporting this theory is the historical market data that showed that Bitcoin prices surged astronomically over the next 18-month period following past halving cycles.
- According to Fidelity Asset Management, Bitcoin prices surged as much as 10,485% within 371 days after the first Bitcoin halving.
- Following the second halving in July 2016, Bitcoin prices rose as much as 3,103% over the next 525 days.
- Similarly, after the third halving period in May 2020, Bitcoin prices jumped as much as 707% within the next 546 days.
3. Impact of Spot BTC ETFs
The introduction of spot BTC ETFs has created unprecedented market conditions that halving cycles of the past did not encounter.
Since the spot BTC ETFs were approved on January 11, 2024, the popularity of the instrument has created a Bitcoin demand shock.
For reference, the average BTC daily demand on ETF trading days currently stands at 4500 Bitcoins surpassing an average of 921 new Bitcoins minted per day, Coinshares reported.
If the spot BTC ETF remains consistent when the supply of Bitcoins reduces by 50% post-halving, the supply-demand principles of economics tell us that Bitcoin prices might rise.
Tips for Miners
One of the biggest challenges that the BTC halving event poses for miners is the reduction in mining rewards.
Apart from the 50% cut, the halving might also increase competition, heightening mining difficulty and potentially increasing the price of transaction fees.
Yuya Hasegawa, an analyst at the crypto exchange Bitbank, told Techopedia in a note that miners often have to consider how they will manage to operate with 50% less revenue.
“This has affected Bitcoin’s hash rate and the network’s difficulty post-halving, as some of them halt operation until the difficulty drops low enough for them to make a profit again. Some others sell their Bitcoin holdings to make up for decreased cash flow.”
However, Hasegawa added that miners should also consider the release of spot BTC ETFs, which could make the situation a little different.
This is because spot BTC ETFs are buying more than they can produce almost every day, thus overwhelming the BTC supply.
“If the ETF inflow continues to overwhelm Bitcoin’s supply, which it probably will since it already is buying more than the network can produce in a day even before halving, the price may continue to rise post-halving, and that could maintain mining profitability.”
Moreover, miners should also prioritize energy efficiency as the cost of electricity is a major component of mining expenses, Anndy Lian, an intergovernmental blockchain expert and the author of NFT: From Zero to Hero, explained.
This can be done through the use of efficient hardware and access to low-cost energy sources, which can help maintain profitability post-halving.
Lian told Techopedia:
“In the past, most miners looked at standard operation costs. I hope they will do more research and stay informed about market behaviors and trends to make educated decisions regarding their operations. They should evaluate their financial health, including debt levels and capital reserves, to withstand potential revenue drops due to the halving. This would also give them a gauge on how fast they expand.”
Bitcoin Price Scenarios to Consider With Approaching BTC Halving Event
Post-Halving Bitcoin Price Action: Analyst Views
Historically, BTC halving events led to the cryptocurrency’s price increases due to the reduced supply of new Bitcoin tokens entering the market.
Lian predicted that the BTC price post-halving has the potential to surge 10% higher than its all-time high, which currently surpasses $73,000.
However, he added that post-halving and with more funds flowing into BTC ETFs, the BTC price could go up an additional 30% by the end of the next quarter.
“It’s also worth noting that predictions vary widely, and the actual outcome will depend on a multitude of factors, including market demand, investor sentiment, and broader economic conditions. Always remember that investing in cryptocurrencies carries risk, and prices can be highly volatile. It’s advisable to conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from financial experts before making investment decisions,” Lian added.
The launch of spot BTC ETFs earlier this year was a huge success, and their demand could grow even bigger later in the year, according to Hasegawa.
He added that while the Federal Reserve is still waiting for inflation to calm down, there is a possibility they could start cutting rates, which could increase demand for both BTC and ETFs and facilitate more cash flow.
Bitbank’s Hasegawa concluded:
“Furthermore, halving will crunch Bitcoin’s supply, so we could expect that those three elements (rate cuts, ETFs, halving) will together create a strong rally sometime during the latter half of this year.”
Graeme Moore, the head of tokenization at Polymesh Association, predicted that the price of BTC could go as high as $100,000 past-halving in 2024 as the cryptocurrency is already experiencing massive heights.
“We are already seeing the effect of the upcoming halving with a 50% increase in price since February. Bitcoin is now over $72K. In addition, the relentless bid from the new Bitcoin ETFs is proving that the broader market is beginning to see the value in a global, decentralized, provably scarce asset. If the previous cycles are an indicator, the price of Bitcoin will continue to rally into the halving and after.”
Historical Bitcoin Halving Analysis
A study of historical Bitcoin halving charts showed that BTC consistently saw price increases in the weeks ahead of halving events. Following halving events, Bitcoin showed a tendency to trade within a range in the next months.
Following the second Bitcoin halving, BTC price traded range bound between $600 and $800 from July 2016 to November 2016.
Similarly, following the third Bitcoin halving cycle in May 2020, BTC traded in the $8,000-$14,000 range for the next six months before finally breaking out to scale new all-time highs.
Historical charts also showed that Bitcoin prices took between 12 months to 18 months to hit the peak price during the first three halving cycles.
Market catalysts that supported Bitcoin prices during each cycle included the European debt crisis of 2009-2012, the initial coin offering (ICO) boom of 2016, and ultra-low interest rates of the post-pandemic era.
The Bottom Line
The upcoming BTC halving is poised to impact both investors and miners. While historical data suggests a potential for long-term price increases, short-term volatility and uncertainty remain prevalent.
Investors should exercise caution, considering the unpredictability of market reactions post-halving, and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
Miners facing reduced rewards and heightened competition must prioritize efficiency and strategic planning to navigate the challenges ahead.
As the crypto landscape evolves with the introduction of spot BTC ETFs, staying informed and adaptable will be crucial for all stakeholders in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Source: https://www.techopedia.com/how-to-prepare-for-bitcoin-halving
Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.
Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.
An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.
