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What’s shaping the markets right now: AI hype, Bitcoin’s calm, and the Fed’s next move

What’s shaping the markets right now: AI hype, Bitcoin’s calm, and the Fed’s next move

Global markets are currently riding a wave of optimism, with risk sentiment surging as investors appear to shrug off a host of economic and political uncertainties. This buoyant mood stems mainly from two key drivers: the anticipation of earlier-than-expected Federal Reserve rate cuts and growing excitement about the potential for artificial intelligence to fuel economic growth.

Beneath this surface of confidence, there are substantial risks that could easily unsettle this delicate balance. From escalating trade tensions to shifting monetary policies and fluctuating commodity prices, the global financial landscape is anything but stable. Adding to the complexity is the cryptocurrency market, where Bitcoin’s price volatility has recently hit its lowest point in over a year, offering a curious contrast to the broader market dynamics.

Let’s begin with the economic and political risks that, despite being overlooked by many market participants, remain critical to understanding the current sentiment. One of the most prominent issues is the resurgence of trade tensions, highlighted by former President Donald Trump’s recent threat to raise tariffs on Indian goods substantially. His reasoning ties to India’s continued purchases of Russian oil, a move that has irked US policymakers amid geopolitical strains.

This isn’t just a bilateral spat between the US and India. It has the potential to ripple across global trade networks, disrupting supply chains and increasing costs for businesses worldwide. India plays a vital role in the global economy, particularly in technology and manufacturing, so any escalation in tariffs could dampen corporate earnings and slow economic momentum. This is a reminder that geopolitical posturing can quickly translate into economic consequences, and investors ignoring this risk might find themselves caught off guard if tensions boil over.

Turning to monetary policy, the Federal Reserve’s next moves are shaping up to be a linchpin for market sentiment. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly recently indicated that the Fed might need to implement more than two rate cuts this year if the labour market weakens further and inflationary pressures from tariffs fail to materialise.

This comment caught my attention because it suggests a willingness to adopt a more supportive stance, which could bolster markets by lowering borrowing costs and encouraging investment. However, it also underscores the Fed’s challenging position. Cutting rates too aggressively risks reigniting inflation, especially if trade disruptions push up prices. On the other hand, holding back could stifle growth if the labor market deteriorates. Fed is walking a tightrope, and its decisions will likely amplify market swings in the coming months. For investors, this means staying attuned to economic data like employment figures and inflation readings, which will heavily influence the Fed’s path.

AI hype changes things

Meanwhile, the optimism around AI-driven growth is injecting a dose of excitement into the markets, and I can see why. Advances in artificial intelligence are no longer just theoretical. They’re starting to reshape industries. Companies are pouring resources into AI, betting that it will streamline operations, boost productivity, and open new revenue channels.

This enthusiasm is most evident in the tech sector, which has powered a recent rebound in US stock markets. The S&P 500 climbed 1.5 per cent, the NASDAQ jumped 2.0 per cent, and the Dow Jones rose 1.3 per cent, reflecting a clear risk-on attitude. I find this rally encouraging because it signals confidence in innovation as a growth driver. I also think it’s worth tempering expectations.

AI’s economic impact is still unfolding, and while the long-term potential is immense, short-term gains might be overstated. If other risks like trade disputes or policy missteps intensify, the AI narrative could lose its luster, leaving tech-heavy indices vulnerable.

The bond market offers another lens into investor sentiment, and here I see a mix of caution and opportunism. US Treasuries consolidated their gains on Monday after a strong showing the previous Friday, when renewed expectations of Fed rate cuts drove demand. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 2.4 basis points to 4.192 per cent, inching close to its support level at 4.185 per cent.

Lower yields typically suggest investors are seeking safety, which seems at odds with the equity market’s rally. To me, this divergence hints at underlying unease; some investors are hedging their bets even as others pile into stocks. The US Dollar Index fell 0.4 per cent in response to these lower yields, while gold edged up 0.3 per cent to US$3,373 per ounce. Gold’s modest gain reinforces my view that safe-haven assets still hold appeal, despite the risk-on vibe dominating headlines. It’s a subtle but telling sign that not everyone is fully convinced by the current optimism.

The case with commodities

Commodities, too, are part of this intricate puzzle. Brent crude oil slipped 1.3 per cent to US$68 per barrel after OPEC+ agreed to increase production by over 500,000 barrels per day starting in September.

This move surprised me a bit, given the group’s usual caution, but it could ease inflationary pressures by keeping oil prices in check. For consumers and businesses, cheaper oil is a welcome relief, potentially supporting spending and investment. However, it also raises questions about global demand. If OPEC+ feels confident boosting output, does that mean they see economic growth slowing? I lean toward the idea that this is a strategic play to maintain market share, but it’s a development worth watching. Lower oil prices might give central banks like the Fed more room to cut rates without stoking inflation, indirectly supporting the risk sentiment driving markets.

Now, let’s shift gears to Bitcoin, where an intriguing story is unfolding. The cryptocurrency’s price volatility has plummeted to its lowest level in over a year, a stark contrast to its historically wild swings. According to Blockforce Capital, Bitcoin’s annualised 60-day volatility fell to 28.53 per cent on July 30, the lowest since August 28, 2023. Its 30-day volatility hit 25.26 per cent on July 23, the calmest since October 15, 2023. This happened as Bitcoin’s price oscillated between US$105,000 and US$122,750 in July, per Coinbase data from TradingView.

I find this stability fascinating, especially given the broader market turbulence. Part of it stems from regulatory progress, including the passage of three US House bills on crypto and the enactment of regulations in July, with the GENIUS Act signed into law by President Trump. These steps likely reassured investors, reducing uncertainty.

But there’s more to this story. Institutional players are flexing their muscles, and I see this as a game-changer. Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, acquired US$2.46 billion worth of Bitcoin between July 28 and August 3, increasing its holdings to 628,791 tokens, valued at over US$71 billion. That’s a massive bet, averaging $117,526 per token, and it shows how Michael Saylor has turned his company into a Bitcoin juggernaut.

Similarly, Japan’s Metaplanet grabbed 463 BTC for US$53 million, pushing its stash to 17,595 BTC, worth about $2.02 billion. These firms are treating Bitcoin like a treasury asset, buying even as retail enthusiasm wanes. I think this institutional muscle could steady Bitcoin through choppy waters, though it also ties the crypto’s fate closer to corporate strategies.

My view? Enjoy the ride, but keep your eyes wide open. The next few months could be a wild one.

 

Source: https://e27.co/whats-shaping-the-markets-right-now-ai-hype-bitcoins-calm-and-the-feds-next-move-20250805/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Bitcoin News Today: Weaker Jobs Data Sparks 70% Odds of 25-Basis-Point Fed Rate Cut in September

Bitcoin News Today: Weaker Jobs Data Sparks 70% Odds of 25-Basis-Point Fed Rate Cut in September

Summary

– Weaker U.S. jobs data (73,000 new jobs in July) has raised 70% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September, boosting crypto markets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

– Analysts highlight reduced opportunity costs for holding non-yielding crypto assets under lower rates, though market reactions depend on Fed communication clarity.

– Despite optimism, experts warn of traditional crypto weakness (August-October) and risks from economic deterioration or geopolitical tensions undermining gains.

– Political pressures on the Fed, including Trump’s criticism of Powell, complicate policy decisions while inflation and volatility remain key concerns.

 

The U.S. jobs market has weakened significantly, increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve will implement a 25-basis-point rate cut in September. This development has sparked renewed optimism in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP showing signs of stabilization after a period of underperformance [1].

Ask Aime: What will happen if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and how will it affect Bitcoin?

According to Polymarket data, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September has climbed to 70% as of August 1, up sharply from earlier in the week. The odds of a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut stand at 6.8% [1]. These expectations follow a disappointing July jobs report, which revealed a mere 73,000 new jobs, far below the estimated 110,000. This figure was compounded by downward revisions to May and June job figures, marking the largest two-month adjustment since the onset of the pandemic in 2020 [1].

The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and wage growth remained robust at 0.3% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year. Analysts suggest that the weaker labor market narrative weakens the Fed’s rationale for maintaining higher interest rates, potentially opening the door for easing measures without appearing to capitulate to political pressure [1].

Greg Magadini, Director of Derivatives at Amberdata, emphasized the market’s surprise at the sharp downward revisions and weak July data, which caused the U.S. dollar to weaken and bond yields to fall. He noted that this scenario provides the Fed with flexibility to cut rates without appearing to act under external pressure [1].

Anndy Lian, a blockchain advisor, pointed out that lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. He stressed, however, that the market’s response will depend on the Fed’s communication strategy [1].

Prediction markets reflect this shift in sentiment. A contract for a December rate cut now shows over 60% of participants anticipating another 25-basis-point reduction [1].

Despite this optimism, experts caution that crypto markets face a traditionally weak period from August through mid-October. Tom Bruni of Stocktwits highlighted that recent ‘good news’ has failed to significantly boost prices, and while a Fed rate cut could provide support, economic deterioration could undermine any positive momentum [1].

Sunil Raina, CEO of CereBree, echoed these sentiments, stating that a September rate cut appears to be the only viable option unless the Fed risks damaging the economy. However, he warned that inflation and geopolitical risks remain, contributing to ongoing volatility [1].

The broader context is a divided Federal Reserve navigating political pressures, particularly from President Donald Trump, who has publicly criticized Jerome Powell and urged direct intervention by the Fed. While the Fed has avoided premature action, the weaker labor data may now serve as cover for a policy shift without appearing politically compromised [1].

This evolving situation has significant implications for Bitcoin and other risk assets in the coming weeks as investors closely watch for further developments in both the labor market and monetary policy [1].

Source: [1] Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP Struggle After Underwhelming Jobs Report: Will A September Rate Cut Save The Bull Run? (https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/08/46802086/bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-struggle-after-underwhelming-jobs-report-will-a-september-rate-cut-save-the-bull-run?utm_source=coingecko&utm_campaign=partner_feed&utm_medium=partner_feed&utm_content=site)

 

Source: https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-weaker-jobs-data-sparks-70-odds-25-basis-point-fed-rate-cut-september-2508/

Bit

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The Fed, tariffs, and Bitcoin: Unpacking the market dynamics

The Fed, tariffs, and Bitcoin: Unpacking the market dynamics

Global risk sentiment holds steady, yet an undercurrent of caution persists, shaped by a blend of robust economic data, trade policy turbulence, and a Federal Reserve that refuses to tip its hand.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently signalled that no firm decision has been reached for the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, leaving investors guessing about the likelihood of a rate cut. With interest rates unchanged at 4.25 per cent to 4.50 per cent for the fifth consecutive meeting, the Fed aligns with market expectations but offers little clarity on its next move.

Meanwhile, economic indicators like a strong US GDP and employment figures paint an optimistic picture, only to be muddied by new tariffs and a volatile commodity market. Add to this mix the evolving cryptocurrency narrative, highlighted by Bitcoin’s potential to hit US$141,000, and the stakes for understanding these dynamics grow even higher. What does this all mean for traditional markets and digital assets alike? I will try to explain.

Global risk sentiment and the Federal Reserve’s stance

Global risk sentiment remains balanced, neither plunging into panic nor surging with unchecked optimism. This stability stems from a tug-of-war between encouraging economic signals and unsettling policy developments.

The Federal Reserve plays a central role in this narrative. By maintaining rates at 4.25 per cent to 4.50 per cent, the Fed reinforces a wait-and-see posture, a decision that met market forecasts but left room for debate. Two voting members dissented, the most since 1993, hinting at internal divisions over the path forward.

Powell’s remarks during the post-meeting news conference underscored this uncertainty, dampening expectations for a September rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of a cut dropped to 47 per cent from 63 per cent just a day prior, reflecting a market recalibration after the Fed’s cautious tone collided with upbeat economic data.

This steady sentiment faces pressure from external forces. New tariffs on India and Brazil, coupled with the removal of the “de minimis” exemption for small packages, signal a tougher US stance on trade. The White House’s proclamation of 50 per cent tariffs on “processed” copper (but not “refined” copper) starting August 1st sent shockwaves through commodity markets, with Comex copper prices plummeting by as much as 20 per cent at one point.

These moves threaten to disrupt global supply chains and stoke inflation, challenges the Fed must weigh as it plots its course. For now, the central bank opts for patience, balancing the vigour of the US economy against these looming risks.

Economic data: A bright spot amid uncertainty

The US economy offers compelling reasons for optimism. Second-quarter GDP growth clocked in at a robust 3.0 per cent quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate, surpassing expectations and signalling resilience. July’s ADP employment report added to the good news, revealing a surprising 104,000 new private-sector jobs.

These figures suggest a labor market and broader economy that continue to defy slowdown fears, providing a counterweight to global uncertainties. Investors and policymakers alike find reassurance in these numbers, which bolster the case for the Fed’s steady-hand approach.

Yet, this strength does not exist in a vacuum. Rising Treasury yields hint at underlying concerns. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed 5 basis points to 4.370 per cent, while the 2-year yield jumped 7.2 basis points to 3.941 per cent. Higher yields often reflect expectations of inflation or a belief that rate cuts remain distant, both of which align with the Fed’s current rhetoric and the tariff-driven pressures on prices.

The US Dollar Index advanced 0.93 per cent, buoyed by the Fed’s stance and perhaps some safe-haven demand amid trade tensions. Gold, typically a refuge in uncertain times, slipped 1.5 per cent to US$3,275 per ounce, possibly due to the stronger dollar or profit-taking after recent gains. Brent crude oil, however, rose 1.0 per cent to US$73 per barrel after President Trump threatened tariffs on India over its energy purchases from Russia, a reminder of how geopolitics can sway commodity prices.

Market reactions: A mixed bag

US stock markets mirrored the broader uncertainty, closing with varied results. The S&P 500 dipped 0.12 per cent, the Dow Jones fell 0.38 per cent, and the NASDAQ eked out a 0.15 per cent gain. This patchwork performance reflects investor efforts to parse positive economic data against trade policy risks.

In Asia, early trading showed similarly mixed equity indices, while US equity futures pointed to an indecisive opening. The day ahead promises more clues, with China’s July manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data, alongside Taiwan and Hong Kong’s second-quarter GDP figures, set to influence sentiment further. These releases could either reinforce the steady outlook or tip the scales toward caution, depending on their strength.

Commodity markets, meanwhile, felt the tariff fallout acutely. The copper price collapse underscores how swiftly policy shifts can ripple through global trade. Such volatility could feed into inflation, challenging the Fed’s efforts to maintain stability. For now, markets navigate a landscape where economic growth coexists with policy-induced turbulence, leaving investors on edge but not in retreat.

Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency angle

Bitcoin offers a compelling subplot in this financial drama. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode highlights US$141,000 as a potential next significant resistance if Bitcoin breaks higher with conviction. This projection ties to the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis, which tracks the average acquisition price for investors holding coins for less than 155 days.

Currently at US$105,400, this level shows STHs enjoying an 11.5 per cent unrealised profit at recent prices. Historically, trading above this basis signals bullish momentum, a pattern Bitcoin has followed since breaching it earlier this year.

Glassnode’s analysis adds depth with standard deviation bands. The +1 SD band, at US$125,100, has repeatedly capped Bitcoin’s upward moves, with two rejections in recent months. A decisive break above this could target the +2 SD level at US$141,600, where STH profits would swell, possibly triggering profit-taking and new resistance. For now, Bitcoin hovers between US$105,000 and US$125,000, a range that may hold until a catalyst, be it policy or market sentiment, sparks a breakout.

The Fed’s announcement and Powell’s remarks dented cryptocurrency prices, with Bitcoin sliding in afternoon trading. This sensitivity to monetary policy underscores Bitcoin’s role as a barometer for risk appetite and expectations of Fed action. Matthew Sigel of VanEck argues Bitcoin serves as a hedge against monetary debasement, suggesting that signals of easier policy could ignite crypto enthusiasm.

Historical data support this: Bitcoin rose after four of the year’s prior FOMC meetings, though it dipped post-June before recovering. Lower rates, by reducing borrowing costs, often drive investment into alternative assets like Bitcoin, a dynamic worth watching if the Fed shifts gears.

The White House’s digital asset vision

The White House’s new report, Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology, adds another layer to the crypto story. Compiled by the Working Group on Digital Asset Markets, it champions digital assets and blockchain as transformative forces for finance and beyond.

Legislative priorities like the Genius stablecoin act and the Clarity Act aim to provide structure. At the same time, recommendations urge the SEC and CFTC to clarify rules on trading, custody, and record-keeping at the federal level. Support for decentralised finance through safe harbors and regulatory sandboxes signals openness to innovation, a boon for the sector.

The report’s stance on a Bitcoin reserve stands out. Administered by the Treasury, this stockpile of seized digital assets will be held, not sold, as reserve assets. This move could legitimise Bitcoin further, boosting confidence among investors wary of regulatory hostility.

Conversely, the report opposes a US central bank digital currency, aligning with the Anti-CBDC Act and reinforcing a decentralised ethos that crypto advocates cherish. These developments suggest a regulatory tailwind for Bitcoin, though their full impact will unfold over time.

My take on the situation

I see a world of opportunity and risk in equal measure. The US economy’s strength, evident in GDP and jobs data, offers a solid foundation, but trade tensions and tariffs threaten to erode it. The Fed’s caution makes sense given these crosscurrents, yet its indecision leaves markets vulnerable to swings.

For traditional assets, volatility seems likely as investors grapple with these forces. Bitcoin, meanwhile, intrigues me most. Its potential to hit US$141,000 hinges on breaking key resistance, a feat that regulatory clarity and a dovish Fed could enable. The White House’s embrace of digital assets feels like a game-changer, though execution will matter.

I lean cautiously optimistic on crypto, believing its hedge appeal and policy support could shine amid uncertainty. Still, prudence dictates watching the Fed and global data closely—volatility cuts both ways.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-fed-tariffs-and-bitcoin-unpacking-the-market-dynamics-20250731/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j