Tag Archives: fed

Trump’s Fed firing threat shakes markets: A deep dive into the economic fallout

Trump’s Fed firing threat shakes markets: A deep dive into the economic fallout

The most striking development in this saga is the report that President Trump drafted a letter to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and shared it with House Republicans during a private meeting.

This move, if true, signals a potential escalation in Trump’s long-standing frustration with Powell, whom he has criticised for not aligning Fed policies, particularly interest rate decisions, with his economic agenda. Sources indicate that Trump sought input from the lawmakers, many of whom reportedly supported the idea of ousting Powell.

However, Trump later walked back these reports, stating he’s “not planning on doing anything” and deeming it “highly unlikely” he would fire Powell unless there were extreme circumstances like fraud. He even denied drafting the letter, despite earlier accounts suggesting otherwise.

This episode is more than just political theatre. It raises serious questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve, a cornerstone of US economic stability. The Fed’s autonomy allows it to make monetary policy decisions based on data and long-term economic health, free from short-term political pressures.

If Trump were to follow through on such a threat, it could erode confidence in the Fed’s ability to act impartially, potentially destabilising financial markets and undermining the US dollar’s global standing.

Even the mere suggestion of such an action has already sparked volatility, as markets grapple with the uncertainty of a politically influenced central bank. Trump’s history of clashing with Powell, particularly over his desire for lower interest rates to stimulate growth, adds context to this tension; however, the draft letter, if it exists, marks a bold step toward direct intervention.

On the economic front, several key indicators provide additional layers to this story. US producer prices (PPI) in June 2025 remained flat, missing expectations of a 0.2 per cent increase after a revised 0.3 per cent rise in May. This stagnation was driven by a 0.1 per cent dip in service prices, highlighted by a sharp 4.1 per cent drop in traveler accommodation costs, offset by a 0.3 per cent rise in goods prices, the largest since February, fuelled by an 0.8 per cent jump in communication equipment.

Flat producer prices suggest that inflationary pressures may be cooling at the wholesale level, which could ease some of the Fed’s concerns about overheating. However, this comes on the heels of a hotter-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) reading earlier in the week, creating a mixed inflation picture that complicates the Fed’s next moves.

Across the Atlantic, UK inflation rose to 3.6 per cent in June 2025, the highest level since January 2024, up from 3.4 per cent in May and exceeding forecasts. This spike was primarily driven by a 1.7 per cent increase in transport costs, with motor fuel, airfares, rail fares, and vehicle maintenance all contributing. Rising UK inflation could pressure the Bank of England to tighten monetary policy, potentially strengthening the pound and influencing global capital flows.

Meanwhile, US industrial production rose 0.3 per cent in June, surpassing expectations of a 0.1 per cent gain after two flat months. Manufacturing edged up 0.1 per cent, while utilities surged 2.8 per cent, boosted by a 3.5 per cent rise in electricity generation. This resilience in industrial activity signals underlying economic strength, though trade tensions and tariffs could pose risks to sustained growth.

Equities: A relief rally in the US, struggles elsewhere

The equity markets have responded swiftly to the Trump-Powell saga. In the US, stocks closed higher on Wednesday after Trump quelled fears of removing Powell, offering a soothing balm to investors rattled by earlier reports. The S&P 500 climbed 0.3 per cent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 231 points, and the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1 per cent to a record close.

This uptick reflects a relief rally, as markets had dipped earlier on concerns that Powell’s ouster could disrupt monetary policy stability and exacerbate inflation and trade worries. The flat PPI data also helped calm nerves after Tuesday’s hotter CPI reading, suggesting that inflationary pressures might not be as intense as feared.

On the corporate side, results were mixed: Goldman Sachs rose one per cent after beating profit estimates, while Johnson & Johnson soared 6.2 per cent on strong earnings and an upgraded outlook. In contrast, Bank of America fell 0.3 per cent on weak revenue, and Morgan Stanley dropped 1.3 per cent despite solid earnings.

In Europe, however, the mood was less upbeat. Frankfurt’s DAX slipped 0.2 per cent to 24,048, marking its fifth consecutive loss amid trade uncertainty and disappointing earnings. Hopes for a softer tariff deal faded as Trump renewed threats to expand tariffs to pharmaceuticals and semiconductors by August 1 under his “reciprocal” tax plan.

The EU Trade Commissioner, Maros Sefcovic, is set to visit Washington to negotiate the US’s proposed 30 per cent tariff, underscoring the high stakes for European exporters. Automakers bore the brunt of the decline, with Volkswagen down 3.7 per cent, Porsche AG off three per cent, and Mercedes-Benz losing 1.9 per cent. Chemical distributor Brenntag also fell 2.6 per cent after a Deutsche Bank downgrade. These losses highlight how Trump’s trade policies are casting a long shadow over European markets.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.3 per cent to 24,518, snapping a four-day winning streak after hitting a four-month high earlier in the session. Traders took profits as US futures weakened following June inflation data, which hinted that tariffs might be pushing prices higher and reducing expectations for Fed rate cuts.

Trump’s signals of potential tariffs on pharmaceuticals by the end of July, with semiconductors possibly next, added further pressure. Notable losers included Pop Mart International (-4.3 per cent), Zhejiang Leapmotor Tech (-3.0 per cent), KE Holdings (-2.7 per cent), and China Longyuan Power (-2.5 per cent). The pullback reflects broader concerns about how US trade policy could disrupt Asian markets, particularly those tied to global supply chains.

FX: Dollar volatility and global currency shifts

The foreign exchange market has been a rollercoaster amid these developments. The US dollar (USD) initially dipped on reports that Trump might fire Powell, as investors worried about the implications for Fed independence and continuity of monetary policy. The dollar index (DXY) fell below 98.40, reflecting this unease.

However, the USD rebounded after Trump denied the claims, and the soft PPI data bolstered confidence that inflation might remain in check. This recovery underscores the dollar’s sensitivity to both political headlines and economic fundamentals.

The euro (EUR) capitalised on the dollar’s early weakness, briefly rising above US$1.17, but later pared its gains as Powell-related uncertainty lingered, settling around US$1.1630. The British pound (GBP) strengthened to above 1.34, buoyed by the softer dollar and a temporary lift from UK inflation data, which hinted at potential Bank of England action.

In Japan, the yen weakened against the dollar, with USDJPY climbing to 148.20, as exports fell 0.5 per cent year-over-year in June, missing expectations of a 0.5 per cent gain. This decline was driven by an 11.4 per cent drop in exports to the US and a 4.7 per cent fall to China, though exports to the EU rose 3.6 per cent. Imports, meanwhile, rose 0.2 per cent year-over-year, defying forecasts of a 1.1 per cent drop. These trade figures highlight the challenges facing export-driven economies amid global trade tensions.

Commodities mixed, yield curve steepens

In the commodities space, gold rose, snapping a two-day slide, as investors sought safety amid the uncertainty surrounding Powell. The metal surged as much as 1.6 per cent before trimming gains after Trump’s denial, reflecting its role as a haven asset. Oil edged higher after a three-day slide, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) near US$67 and Brent below US$69, driven by mixed US inventory data. Crude stockpiles fell, but distillate inventories rose, amid ongoing trade war concerns.

In the bond market, the spread between 5-year and 30-year US Treasury yields widened to 108 basis points, the steepest since 2021. This steepening yield curve could signal expectations of stronger growth and higher inflation ahead, though it may also reflect uncertainty about the Fed’s future path under political scrutiny.

Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin and Ethereum in focus

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is consolidating below US$120,000 after hitting an all-time high of US$123,091 earlier in the week, closing flat at US$118,600. A bearish engulfing candle and declining volume, from US$180 billion on July 14 to below US$100 billion by July 15, suggest market indecision. Support sits at US$117,000, with a potential drop to US$114,400-US$112,000 if breached. Despite this, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows surged to US$799 million on Wednesday, signalling robust long-term demand.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) soared 15 per cent in three days after Peter Thiel disclosed a 9.1 per cent stake in BitMine, a crypto miner holding 164,000 Ether worth US$500 million. This news has electrified the crypto space, underscoring growing institutional interest.

My take: Implications and outlook

Recent developments indicate that we are at a pivotal moment in the global economy. Trump’s suggestion of firing Powell raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, a move that could lead to long-term market instability if it were to occur.

The current mixed economic signals from flat US Producer Price Index (PPI) and rising inflation in the UK, to solid industrial production, suggest that the global economy is in a state of flux, with unpredictable trade policies adding to the uncertainty.

In the US, equities show resilience, while other markets exhibit vulnerabilities. The fluctuations in the dollar underscore its crucial role in global finance. Commodities and cryptocurrencies present both opportunities and risks, with gold and Ethereum standing out amid this uncertainty.

Looking ahead, the relationship between politics and economic policy will be vital. If Trump decides to back off, the markets may stabilise; however, any renewed pressure could lead to increased volatility.

Key economic data releases, such as US retail sales and the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI), will further influence the situation. For now, the world is watching closely, and I will continue to analyse the data to provide a clear perspective on what lies ahead.

 

Source: https://e27.co/trumps-fed-firing-threat-shakes-markets-a-deep-dive-into-the-economic-fallout-20250718/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Fed’s big choice: Save the economy or unleash inflation hell?

Fed’s big choice: Save the economy or unleash inflation hell?

Weakness in the US labour market has cast a shadow over investor confidence, while trade policy announcements and fiscal uncertainties in the UK add layers of ambiguity. At the same time, financial markets, from equities to cryptocurrencies, are sending mixed messages, reflecting both resilience and caution.

In this analysis, I’ll explore these factors in depth, weaving together the data and offering my perspective on what it all means for the global risk landscape.

A troubling signal from the US labour market

The US economy, often seen as the engine of global growth, is showing signs of faltering, particularly in its labour market. The latest ADP employment report revealed that private sector employers shed 33,000 jobs in June, a stark reversal from the consensus expectation of a 98,000 job gain.

This marks the first negative reading since March 2023, a period when the economy was still grappling with post-pandemic recovery challenges. With the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) release looming, this data has heightened anticipation and anxiety among investors and policymakers alike.

The significance of the ADP figure lies in its role as a leading indicator for the NFP, which provides a broader snapshot of employment trends. A weak NFP report could confirm fears of a slowing US economy, potentially signalling the end of the robust growth narrative that has supported markets in recent years.

This possibility is particularly concerning given the Federal Reserve’s delicate balancing act between taming inflation and sustaining economic expansion. If the labour market continues to soften, the Fed might lean toward a more accommodative stance, perhaps lowering interest rates, though this could risk reigniting inflationary pressures.

This labour market weakness is a pivotal driver of the subdued global risk sentiment. Investors are understandably jittery, as a faltering US economy could ripple across global markets, dampening demand and weighing on corporate earnings.

The uptick in gold prices to US$3,357 per ounce and the slight dip in the US Dollar Index suggest that some are already positioning for a risk-off environment. The stakes are high, and the NFP release will likely be a defining moment for market sentiment in the near term.

Trade policy: A glimmer of hope amid uncertainty

On the trade front, President Trump’s announcement of a deal with Vietnam has sparked a flicker of optimism. The prospect of a new trade agreement could ease some of the tensions that have plagued global commerce, particularly in the context of the US-China rivalry.

Vietnam’s growing role as a manufacturing hub makes it an appealing partner for diversifying supply chains, potentially reducing reliance on any single country and bolstering economic resilience. Yet, this optimism is tempered by significant uncertainty. At the time of writing, no official confirmation has come from Vietnamese authorities, and details about the deal remain frustratingly scarce.

Trump’s track record of issuing bold, unilateral trade proclamations, sometimes followed by protracted negotiations or reversals, further adds to the skepticism. Without clarity on the agreement’s scope, timeline, or enforceability, it’s difficult for markets to embrace this development as a game-changer fully.

The trade announcement is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it hints at progress in stabilising global trade dynamics, which could lift risk sentiment if substantiated. On the other hand, the lack of concrete information leaves it as more of a headline than a foundation for confidence. Until Vietnam weighs in and specifics emerge, this remains a wildcard in the broader risk equation.

UK fiscal woes stir global ripples

Across the Atlantic, the UK is grappling with its own set of challenges that are reverberating through global markets. The government’s abrupt reversal on welfare reforms has reignited concerns about fiscal stability, amplifying political uncertainty at a time when clarity is sorely needed.

This policy shift triggered a sharp bear-steepening in gilt yields, a technical term that describes a scenario where long-term yields rise faster than short-term ones. In practical terms, it signals growing investor unease about the UK’s fiscal health and the potential for higher borrowing costs.

This market reaction hasn’t stayed confined to British shores. The upward pressure on gilt yields has contributed to a broader rise in global bond yields, including US Treasuries, where the 10-year yield climbed to 4.277 per cent and the two-year yield reached 3.785 per cent. This interconnectedness underscores how fiscal instability in one major economy can unsettle others, particularly when confidence is already fragile.

The UK’s predicament is a sleeper issue in the global risk narrative. While it may not dominate headlines like US labour data or trade talks, its implications are profound.

A sustained loss of faith in the UK’s fiscal management could erode its standing in global markets, prompting investors to shift toward safer assets and further dampen risk appetite. The bear-steepening in gilts is a warning shot, one that global markets would be wise not to ignore.

Markets reflect a tug-of-war

Overnight, US equity markets offered a mixed bag of results that mirror the broader uncertainty. The S&P 500 rose by 0.5 per cent and the NASDAQ gained a more robust 0.94 per cent, buoyed by strength in technology stocks.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones slipped by a modest 0.02 per cent, hinting at uneven investor sentiment across sectors. This divergence suggests that while some corners of the market remain optimistic, perhaps driven by innovation or earnings resilience, others are more guarded.

The rise in US Treasury yields and the movements in commodity prices further illustrate this cautious mood. The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 3.5 basis points, and the two-year yield increased by 1.2 basis points, reflecting expectations of tighter financial conditions or lingering concerns about inflation.

Gold, a classic safe-haven asset, climbed 0.6 per cent to US$3,357 per ounce. In comparison, Brent crude surged three per cent, its most significant jump in two weeks, after Iran announced it was suspending cooperation with the UN atomic agency, stoking fears of oil supply disruptions.

In my analysis, these market movements reveal a tug-of-war between risk-on and risk-off impulses. The equity gains suggest some investors are betting on resilience, while the rise in yields and gold prices points to underlying worries about economic stability. Brent crude’s leap adds another layer of complexity, as higher energy costs could fuel inflation, complicating central banks’ efforts to manage growth and prices.

Bitcoin’s highs meet trader caution

In the cryptocurrency realm, Bitcoin is making waves, surging past US$109,000 and trading just two per cent below its all-time high. This rally coincided with monetary expansion in the eurozone and the softening of the US labour market, factors that often bolster Bitcoin’s appeal as an inflation hedge or alternative asset.

Yet, derivatives data tell a more cautious tale. The Bitcoin futures premium, a gauge of trader sentiment, remains below the five per cent neutral threshold, inching up from four per cent but still far from bullish territory.

This hesitancy is echoed in other metrics, like the USDT discount in China and outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, which highlight investor wariness amid global trade tensions. Despite the price surge, traders seem unconvinced of its staying power, perhaps mindful of past volatility or macroeconomic headwinds.

A standout development is BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) outpacing its iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) in annual fee revenue. With US$75 billion in assets, IBIT generates US$187.2 million yearly at a 0.25 per cent expense ratio, edging out IVV’s US$187.1 million from US$624 billion at 0.03 per cent. This shift, driven by steady inflows over 17 of the last 18 months, underscores Bitcoin’s growing institutional allure.

Bitcoin’s story encapsulates the broader risk sentiment. Its price reflects optimism and speculative fervor, but the cautious derivatives data and ETF outflows suggest a market on edge, awaiting clearer signals. BlackRock’s revenue milestone is a watershed moment, hinting at a future where cryptocurrencies rival traditional assets in prominence.

Bottom line

Pulling these threads together, the global risk sentiment feels like a tightrope walk, balanced between tentative hope and palpable concern. The US labor market’s stumble is a red flag, potentially foreshadowing a more challenging road ahead if the NFP disappoints.

Trade optimism from the Vietnam deal is a bright spot, but its vagueness keeps it from being a game-changer. The UK’s fiscal turbulence and rising yields exacerbate the unease, while markets fluctuate between gains and safe-haven moves.

For me, the overriding sense is one of caution. The mixed signals —equity advances, gold’s rise, and Bitcoin’s cautious rally — suggest that investors are hedging their bets and braced for volatility. The NFP release will be a litmus test, but even beyond that, clarity on trade and fiscal fronts will be key to shifting this subdued mood.

 

Source: https://e27.co/feds-big-choice-save-the-economy-or-unleash-inflation-hell-20250703/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Gold hits US$3,339 as markets brace for Fed moves and Bitcoin’s next big drop

Gold hits US$3,339 as markets brace for Fed moves and Bitcoin’s next big drop

I find myself drawn to the complexity of this moment, a trading session marked by mixed signals, yet brimming with implications for investors worldwide.

Let’s dive into the details, explore what’s driving these shifts, and offer my perspective on where things might be headed, all grounded in the facts and data at hand.

Global risks sentiment and economic backdrop

The global risks sentiment during this recent trading session was undeniably mixed, a reflection of the myriad forces tugging at investor confidence.

On one hand, there’s optimism stemming from stronger-than-expected US economic data: May’s US JOLTS job openings surged to 4.6 per cent, signalling robust labour market demand, while the ISM Manufacturing index ticked up to 49.0, hinting at a stabilisation in industrial activity despite remaining below the expansion threshold of 50.

These figures paint a picture of an economy that’s holding its own, defying some of the gloomier forecasts that have lingered in recent months. This resilience is a reminder that the US economy often finds ways to surprise on the upside, even amid uncertainty.

Yet, this positivity is tempered by caution. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s latest remarks reinforce a “wait-and-see” approach, a stance that keeps markets guessing about the Federal Reserve’s next move. His acknowledgment that a rate cut in July isn’t off the table adds a layer of intrigue, suggesting flexibility but no firm commitment.

I see this as the Fed walking a tightrope: balancing the need to support growth against the risk of overheating an economy that’s already showing strength. It’s a prudent strategy, but one that leaves investors hungry for clearer signals.

Adding to the mix is a significant legislative development: the US Senate’s razor-thin approval of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), passing 51-50 with Vice President Vance casting the decisive vote. This bill now heads to the House of Representatives for a final showdown, and its outcome could ripple through fiscal policy, government spending, and market sentiment.

While the specifics of OBBBA remain broad in public discourse, its passage in the Senate signals potential shifts in economic priorities, perhaps more stimulus or infrastructure investment, that could bolster growth or stoke inflationary pressures. The House’s decision will be a litmus test for how aggressively the US leans into fiscal expansion, and I’ll be watching closely.

US markets: A tale of divergence

Against this backdrop, US stock markets closed the session with a split personality. The S&P 500 dipped by 0.11 per cent, while the NASDAQ took a sharper hit, falling 0.82 per cent, which may reflect a cooling in tech-heavy growth stocks. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shone brightly, climbing 0.91 per cent to claim the title of best performer among the trio.

It suggests that investors are rotating into value stocks or sectors less sensitive to interest rate speculation, such as industrials or financials, while taking profits in high-flying tech names. It’s a classic flight to stability in uncertain times, and I suspect the Dow’s strength is tied to solid economic data lifting confidence in traditional industries.

US Treasury yields, however, tell a different story, one of rising expectations. The 10-year UST yield edged up by 1.4 basis points, while the two-year yield jumped 5.3 basis points to 3.772 per cent. Higher yields across the curve signal that bond investors are pricing in either stronger growth, creeping inflation, or the possibility of tighter Fed policy down the road.

I lean toward a mix of the first two: the economic data supports growth, but persistent supply chain pressures and energy costs (more on that later) could be nudging inflation concerns. For bondholders, it’s a demand for better returns in a world where cash might not stay cheap forever.

Currency, commodities, and global cues

The US Dollar Index slipped by a modest 0.06 per cent, a subtle retreat that doesn’t scream panic but hints at a pause in the greenback’s dominance. In contrast, gold rallied 1.1 per cent to US$3,339 per ounce, a clear sign of its enduring allure as a safe-haven asset when sentiment wavers.

I’ve always viewed gold as the market’s emotional barometer, and its climb here feels like a hedge against the unknowns: Fed policy, legislative outcomes, and geopolitical risks.

Speaking of which, Brent crude oil rose 0.6 per cent to US$67 per barrel, a modest gain overshadowed by the looming OPEC+ meeting on July 6. Word is, the cartel might agree to pump an additional 411,000 barrels per day starting in August—a move that could ease tight supply but also cap oil’s upside.

I’m cautious here; energy markets are a wild card, and any surprises from OPEC+ could sway inflation expectations and, by extension, Fed thinking. For now, the market seems to be holding its breath.

Globally, Asian equity indices reflected the mixed mood in early trading, while US equity futures indicated a higher open. That flicker of optimism could stem from the US data or hopes of Fed accommodation; either way, it’s a tentative sign that sentiment isn’t all doom and gloom.

Bitcoin: Institutional moves and technical tensions

Now, let’s pivot to the cryptocurrency realm, where Bitcoin is stealing headlines once again. Hong Kong-based DDC Enterprise, a publicly traded food company, has secured US$528 million in fresh funding and plans to acquire 5,000 BTC over the next three years. This isn’t pocket change, it’s a bold bet on Bitcoin as a treasury asset, signalling that institutional adoption is gaining steam.

It’s a vote of confidence in crypto’s staying power, even as traditional markets grapple with their own dramas. Companies like DDC are betting that Bitcoin can hedge against inflation or currency weakening, a narrative I think holds water in today’s climate.

But the price action tells a more cautious tale. Bitcoin pulled back to US$105,250 on Tuesday after failing to breach US$109,000 over the weekend, and selling picked up pace, raising the spectre of a drop to US$104,000. We might be at a local top or entering consolidation, given the choppy trading. Let’s break down the charts to see what’s cooking.

On the daily BTC/USDT chart, Bitcoin’s caught between a downtrend line and its moving averages. The upsloping averages tilt slightly bullish, suggesting that buyers aren’t out of the game, but the RSI, hovering near neutral, shows that momentum has stalled.

If the price cracks below those averages and holds there, we’re looking at a slide to US$104,500, maybe even US$100,000, keeping it trapped in a bearish descending triangle.

But if it bounces off the averages and punches above the downtrend line, that bearish setup collapses, and we could see a run toward the inverse head-and-shoulders neckline, potentially a bullish breakout. I’m torn here; the technicals are poised for either outcome, and it’s a coin toss until momentum picks a side.

The four-hour chart sharpens the focus: Bitcoin has slipped below the moving averages, a sign that short-term traders are cashing out. The US$104,500 level is the line in the sand; buyers will fight tooth and nail to hold it, because a break could send it tumbling to US$100,000. Psychologically, that round number looms large, and I’d wager it’s where dip-buyers might step in.

Bitcoin’s at a crossroads. The institutional interest from DDC is a long-term tailwind, but near-term selling pressure could test those lower supports. If it holds US$104,500, I’d see it as a base for another push; if it folds, US$100,000 feels like a natural floor before sentiment shifts.

We’re in a volatile stew, but with sharp eyes and steady hands, there’s profit to be made. That’s my lens on this whirlwind- Complex, thrilling, and ripe for the astute.

 

Source: https://e27.co/gold-hits-us3339-as-markets-brace-for-fed-moves-and-bitcoins-next-big-drop-20250702/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j