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Fed decision looms: Crypto cracks under US$3.07T as ETFs bleed US$3.47B in one month

Fed decision looms: Crypto cracks under US$3.07T as ETFs bleed US$3.47B in one month

The crypto market’s recent pullback reflects a confluence of macro headwinds, institutional caution, and technical fragility, all unfolding against the tense anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision. While the 0.87 per cent drop over the past 24 hours appears modest on the surface, it contributes to a deeper 30-day decline of 10.72 per cent, signalling a sustained period of risk aversion rather than a fleeting correction.

This deterioration stems primarily from three interlocking dynamics: large-scale institutional selling, recalibrated monetary policy expectations, and a technical breakdown that has eroded market confidence. Each of these forces not only weighs on short-term price action but also reshapes the strategic calculus for both institutional allocators and retail participants navigating this transitional phase.

Institutional behaviour has shifted decisively bearish in recent weeks. Galaxy Digital, a bellwether firm led by Mike Novogratz, has been at the centre of this trend, transferring 900 BTC valued at approximately US$81.6 million to a newly created wallet, likely linked to an exchange. This transaction aligns with a broader pattern of distribution, including a reported sale of 2,800 BTC worth roughly US$250 million as Bitcoin traded below US$90,000 in mid-November. Such moves signal that major players are taking profits or hedging against further downside, removing a key pillar of support that had previously underpinned the market during rallies.

The outflows extend beyond on-chain movements into regulated financial products. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, once the poster child of institutional adoption, has experienced record redemptions, shedding US$2.3 billion in November alone. Cumulative outflows across US spot Bitcoin ETFs reached US$3.47 billion for the month, dragging total Bitcoin ETF assets under management down to US$122.92 billion, an 11.5 per cent decline from October levels. This withdrawal of institutional capital directly weakens demand at a time when macro uncertainty demands liquidity and flexibility.

Compounding this selling pressure, expectations for Federal Reserve easing have significantly cooled. Markets now price in just 75 basis points of rate cuts for 2026, a notable retreat from the 100 basis points anticipated a month prior. This repricing reflects a more hawkish stance from Fed officials and resilient US economic data, which together have dampened hopes for a dovish pivot in the near term. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that while a 25 basis point cut in the December FOMC meeting remains probable, the path forward appears less certain and more data-dependent than previously assumed.

This tightening of financial conditions translates directly into lower risk appetite across all asset classes, with speculative assets like cryptocurrencies feeling the heat first and most acutely. A critical counterbalance has emerged from the regulatory front. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission launched a landmark pilot program on December 8, 2025, that officially permits Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDC to be used as margin collateral in US derivatives markets.

This development is a major structural win for the industry, as it formally integrates digital assets into the core plumbing of traditional finance. While this news provides a long-term tailwind by enhancing capital efficiency and institutional utility, its immediate impact is muted against the overwhelming force of macro caution and profit-taking.

From a technical perspective, the market structure has also deteriorated. The total crypto market capitalisation, now hovering around US$3.07 trillion, has traded below both its 7-day and 30-day simple moving averages of US$3.09 trillion and US$3.12 trillion, respectively. This breakdown below key trendlines confirms the shift from a bullish to a bearish short-term bias. Furthermore, the composition of the market reveals a flight to relative safety within the crypto ecosystem itself. Bitcoin dominance has climbed to 58.56 per cent, its highest level in recent months, while altcoin dominance has collapsed to 29.25 per cent, a 12-month low.

The rotation suggests that even among those holding crypto, capital is consolidating into Bitcoin as the primary store of value, abandoning more speculative altcoins. This dynamic is particularly concerning because a healthy bull market typically requires broad-based participation across the asset class, not just strength in the flagship asset. The current setup leaves the market vulnerable to a deeper liquidation cascade if Bitcoin fails to hold critical support levels, such as the US$89,500 mark, which has become a key psychological and technical floor.

The broader macro environment provides additional context. US equities retreated ahead of the Fed decision, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all posting losses, while Treasury yields continued their upward march, with the 10-year yield breaching 4.16 per cent. In a curious but strategically significant development, former President Donald Trump granted Nvidia permission to export its advanced H200 AI chips to China, contingent on a 25 per cent surcharge paid to the US government.

Looking at this move, while seemingly isolated to the semiconductor sector, injects a complex geopolitical variable into the market, highlighting the ongoing tension between technological decoupling and commercial pragmatism. For the crypto market, which is highly correlated with tech stocks and risk sentiment, any development that introduces new uncertainty or shifts the global liquidity outlook is a material factor.

In conclusion, the crypto market finds itself at a critical juncture, caught between the immediate pressures of institutional de-risking and a less accommodative monetary policy outlook, and the long-term promise of deeper institutional integration through initiatives like the CFTC’s collateral pilot. The current consolidation is not merely a price correction but a fundamental reassessment of the drivers of value in a new macro regime.

The path forward hinges almost entirely on the Federal Reserve’s communication in its upcoming announcement. A dovish tilt could spark a powerful relief rally, drawing capital back from the sidelines and potentially pushing the total market cap toward the US$3.25 trillion range.

A hawkish surprise or a higher for longer message would likely accelerate the current downtrend, testing major Fibonacci support levels around US$2.89 trillion. Until that clarity emerges, the market will remain in a state of cautious limbo, with Bitcoin’s ability to defend its key support levels serving as the primary indicator of whether this is a pause in a larger bull run or the beginning of a more protracted bear phase.

Source: https://e27.co/fed-decision-looms-crypto-cracks-under-us3-07t-as-etfs-bleed-us3-47b-in-one-month-20251209/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

From gold to Bitcoin: Where smart money is moving ahead of the Fed’s December cut

From gold to Bitcoin: Where smart money is moving ahead of the Fed’s December cut

Financial markets exhibited surface-level stability last week, but this calm belies a significant recalibration in investor positioning driven by fresh US macroeconomic data and a rapidly crystallising consensus around an imminent Federal Reserve pivot toward monetary easing. The September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, registered a 0.3 per cent month-over-month increase, unchanged from August, while the core PCE excluding food and energy rose 2.8 per cent on an annual basis.

Although this remains modestly above the central bank’s two per cent target, the sustained moderation in underlying price pressures has materially strengthened market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the December FOMC meeting. This shifting policy outlook is already exerting tangible influence across asset classes, subtly but decisively reshaping allocations in equities, fixed income, foreign exchange, and digital assets alike.

US equities edged higher on the week’s final trading day, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.22 per cent, the S&P 500 gaining 0.19 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite climbing 0.31 per cent. The modest advances underscore a market in transition, one that is neither exuberant nor risk-averse but increasingly confident that the tightening cycle has peaked. This environment calls not for aggressive rotation out of US equities but for strategic diversification. Investors benefit from maintaining exposure to high-quality US names while selectively exploring non-US value and mid-cap equities, which offer both relative undervaluation and potential alpha as global monetary policies diverge.

In fixed income, US Treasury yields nudged upward, with the 10-year yield rising nearly 3 basis points to 4.13 per cent and the two-year yield climbing over 3 basis points to 3.56 per cent. The modest yield bump reflects a temporary pause in the rally that preceded the data release, but it also creates a more compelling entry point for longer-duration assets.

With the Fed’s pivot now widely anticipated, the widening spread between equities and bonds is beginning to tilt the risk-reward calculus back in favour of quality fixed income. Accumulating high-grade bonds ahead of actual rate cuts positions portfolios to capture both capital appreciation and enhanced yield as the easing cycle unfolds.

The US dollar softened against most major currencies last Friday, a natural consequence of declining real yield differentials as rate cut expectations solidify. Notably, the Japanese yen took a brief pause in its recent appreciation, with USD/JPY edging up 0.1 per cent. This respite appears tactical rather than structural. The Bank of Japan has signalled its readiness to hike rates as early as December, a move that would further compress the yield gap with the US and likely reinvigorate yen strength. Investors should anticipate continued JPY outperformance in the quarters ahead, especially if the Fed’s easing path proves more aggressive than currently priced.

Commodity markets responded with characteristic sensitivity to shifting macro narratives. Brent crude rose 0.77 per cent to settle at US$63.75 per barrel, reflecting both subdued demand concerns and simmering geopolitical risks that continue to underpin oil prices. Gold, however, delivered a more emphatic statement, climbing one per cent to close at US$2121.16 per ounce. The precious metal’s advance was directly fuelled by mounting expectations of near-term Fed easing, reinforcing its role as a defensive hedge in environments of declining real rates and heightened policy uncertainty. Gold remains an essential portfolio component, not as a speculative vehicle but as a stabilising asset amid monetary regime shifts.

In Asia, equity markets closed mixed, mirroring the cautious optimism seen globally. The regional landscape remains bifurcated, with China continuing to attract strategic interest despite structural headwinds. A barbell approach, favouring both high-growth technology names and high-yield dividend payers, offers a balanced exposure to China’s evolving recovery, where consumer sentiment remains fragile, but policy support is intensifying. This dual focus captures both upside optionality and downside protection in an uncertain macro backdrop.

Perhaps the most telling signal of shifting investor psychology emerged in the crypto market, which rose 1.47 per cent over the past 24 hours after a turbulent week. This rebound was not a mere reflexive bounce but the product of three converging catalysts that collectively point toward maturing market dynamics.

First, Binance’s regulatory breakthrough in Abu Dhabi marked a watershed moment for the industry. By securing a full suite of operational licenses under the Abu Dhabi Global Market framework, effective January 2026, the exchange has positioned itself under what many consider a gold-standard regulatory regime. This development directly addresses longstanding concerns about operational and compliance risk, particularly for institutional participants. The market’s response was immediate, with BNB rallying 1.57 per cent on the week, underscoring how regulatory legitimacy now drives valuation as much as technological innovation.

Second, technical indicators offered mixed but ultimately supportive signals. The total crypto market capitalisation, now at US$63.753.1 trillion, broke above its seven-day simple moving average of US$63.753.09 trillion and reclaimed a key pivot point at US$63.753.1 trillion, aided by a bullish MACD crossover. This technical strength coexists with significant fragility. Bitcoin liquidations surged 653 per cent in 24 hours to US$63.75110 million, even as open interest swelled 17 per cent to US$63.75810 billion. Such leverage concentration magnifies downside risk, creating conditions for cascading sell-offs if sentiment sours. Compounding this vulnerability, the Fear and Greed Index remains stuck at 24, deep in Extreme Fear territory, revealing that retail and smaller institutional participants have yet to regain conviction despite the price rebound.

Third, a subtle but meaningful rotation into select altcoins signalled a growing appetite for narrative-driven opportunities beyond Bitcoin. Solana surged 10.89 per cent over the week, while SUI-related tokens gained traction following Grayscale’s filing for an SUI exchange-traded fund. Ethereum’s recent Fusaka upgrade, which lowered Layer 2 transaction costs, further bolstered developer and user activity in scalable blockchain ecosystems. Though the Altcoin Season Index remains low at just 19 out of 100, capital is clearly flowing toward platforms with tangible real-world utility. Solana’s integration into US$63.7514 billion of home equity line of credit infrastructure exemplifies this trend, where blockchain moves beyond speculation into functional finance. Notably, the 24-hour correlation between crypto and the Nasdaq fell to 0.55, suggesting that digital assets are beginning to decouple from broader tech risk, a promising sign of market maturity.

Taken together, these developments paint a picture of a crypto market at an inflexion point. On the one hand, regulatory milestones like Binance’s ADGM approval and real-world adoption in sectors such as DePIN and real-world assets provide durable bullish underpinnings. On the other hand, excessive leverage and persistent fear expose the market to volatility spikes that could erase short-term gains. The critical test lies ahead. Can these strengthening fundamentals overcome a shaky market structure?

Two focal points will likely determine the path forward. First, Bitcoin’s US$63.7591,000 support level, if held, would validate the current rebound and potentially usher in a new leg higher. Second, the January 2026 launch of Binance’s ADGM-regulated operations will serve as a litmus test for institutional inflows, potentially catalysing a broader reassessment of crypto as a legitimate asset class.

In sum, the current market steadiness reflects a delicate balance between fading inflation concerns, anticipated Fed easing, and emerging confidence in digital asset infrastructure. Beneath the calm lies a market preparing for its next major move, one that will hinge not on speculation alone but on the intersection of regulation, utility, and structural resilience.

 

Source: https://e27.co/from-gold-to-bitcoin-where-smart-money-is-moving-ahead-of-the-feds-december-cut-20251208/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The Fed pivots, but markets hold their breath

The Fed pivots, but markets hold their breath

At first glance, the sharp drop in US jobless claims to 191,000, the lowest level in over three years, should have sparked optimism. Fewer Americans filing for unemployment typically signals labour market resilience, which in turn supports consumer spending and broader economic activity. Despite this positive development, market participants remained unmoved, with equities trading in narrow ranges and volatility suppressed.

This disconnect underscores a deeper uncertainty about the path ahead, particularly as monetary policy remains in flux. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett’s public call for a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the upcoming December FOMC meeting adds another layer to the narrative, suggesting growing political and economic pressure on the Federal Reserve to pivot toward easing. While such a move may be anticipated by some, markets appear to be holding their breath, waiting not just for confirmation of a cut, but for evidence that it will mark the start of a durable easing cycle rather than a one-off adjustment.

Equity markets reflected this indecision. The S&P 500 inched up by 0.1 per cent, the Nasdaq gained 0.2 per cent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped by 0.1 per cent, painting a picture of consolidation rather than conviction. This sideways movement aligns with the broader implication that investors should maintain exposure to high-quality US equities while selectively exploring non-US value and mid-cap opportunities for alpha generation.

The emphasis on quality suggests that in an environment of ambiguous macro signals, investors are prioritising balance sheet strength, earnings visibility, and resilient business models. Meanwhile, the fixed-income market responded with modest yield increases. Ten-year US Treasury yields rose 3.5 basis points to 4.098 per cent, and two-year yields climbed 3.9 basis points to 3.523 per cent.

This upward move may seem counterintuitive ahead of an expected rate cut, but it likely reflects positioning shifts and the market pricing in both near-term easing and longer-term inflation or growth concerns. With spreads widening, however, bonds are regaining appeal as a defensive asset class, particularly for those looking to front-run the Fed’s pivot and lock in relatively attractive yields before they decline further.

In foreign exchange markets, the US dollar rebounded, but an important shift emerged in yen dynamics. The Japanese yen advanced 0.1 per cent to 155.10 against the dollar following reports that key members of Prime Minister Takaichi’s government would not oppose a potential Bank of Japan rate hike in December.

This development marks a subtle but significant shift in Japan’s policy stance, long anchored to ultra-loose monetary conditions. If the BoJ does act, even modestly, it would further narrow the yield differential between Japanese and US assets, likely fuelling additional yen strength. For global investors, this suggests a reorientation of capital flows and potential repricing of carry trades that have underpinned certain risk strategies for years.

In commodities, Brent crude rose 0.9 per cent to settle at US$63.26 per barrel, while gold held steady at US$2,407 per ounce, consolidating for a fourth consecutive day. Gold’s stability amid choppy risk sentiment reaffirms its role as a defensive hedge, especially as geopolitical uncertainties linger. Oil, meanwhile, remains hypersensitive to supply-chain disruptions and Middle East tensions, though demand concerns continue to cap its upside.

Turning to Asia, regional equities traded mixed, with Chinese markets showing signs of recovery. The rebound in China, supported by both policy expectations and valuation support, has prompted a strategic barbell approach, favouring both high-growth tech names and high-dividend, stable earners.

This duality captures the dual forces shaping China’s market: optimism over long-term innovation potential and pragmatism around near-term economic uncertainty. With US futures pointing higher, the global equity backdrop appears supportive, but the lack of strong directional momentum suggests that traders remain cautious until clearer signals emerge from next week’s labour market data.

The cryptocurrency market, however, diverged from this cautious stability, declining 1.36 per cent over the past 24 hours. This pullback encapsulates three distinct but interrelated dynamics. First, a significant leverage unwind occurred in Bitcoin markets, with US$86.78 million in liquidations, 58.98 million of which came from long positions. This surge in long squeezes, up 20 per cent from previous levels, coincided with a 4.4 per cent drop in perpetual futures open interest and elevated funding rates of plus 0.0027 per cent.

The spot-to-perpetual ratio of 0.21 further signalled an over-leveraged long bias, leaving the market vulnerable to even minor price corrections. As small dips triggered margin calls, cascading sell-offs amplified downside pressure. The Fear and Greed Index’s decline to 25, down from 27 just a day earlier, confirms a waning appetite for speculative risk.

Second, Ethereum’s much-anticipated Fusaka upgrade, launched on December 3, failed to sustain bullish momentum. Despite the technical improvement aimed at reducing transaction costs, ETH dipped 1.5 per cent as traders appeared to treat the event as a classic buy-the-rumour, sell-the-news scenario.

The upgrade itself represents a meaningful step forward for Ethereum’s scalability and user experience, but short-term market dynamics often prioritise positioning over fundamentals. With ETH’s 14-day relative strength index at 65.75, the asset remains in neutral territory, not yet oversold, but lacking immediate upside catalysts. This opens the door for further consolidation as the market digests the upgrade’s real-world impact.

Third, Binance’s announcement of a dual-CEO structure, appointing Yi He alongside Richard Teng, introduced a layer of governance uncertainty. While the move ostensibly balances innovation with compliance, markets interpreted it as a sign of internal recalibration, possibly influenced by lingering regulatory scrutiny and the indirect role of founder Changpeng Zhao.

The resulting 3.75 per cent weekly decline in BNB reflected broader concerns about platform stability and regulatory risk, which spilt over into the wider crypto ecosystem. In an environment already marked by caution, such leadership shifts can amplify bearish sentiment, particularly when they raise questions about strategic direction.

Taken together, these three forces, leverage flush, post-upgrade selloff, and governance concerns, explain the crypto market’s retreat. The rise in Bitcoin dominance to 58.7 per cent further underscores a flight to perceived safety within the digital asset space, as altcoins underperformed amid risk-off flows.

Looking ahead, all eyes turn to tomorrow’s US jobs data. A strong report could rekindle the positive correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq, currently at plus 0.53, by reaffirming the narrative that crypto behaves as a risk asset in a growth-friendly macro regime. Conversely, any sign of labour market weakness might accelerate the Fed’s pivot, potentially reviving demand for yield-sensitive assets, including crypto.

For now, Bitcoin’s US$3.04 trillion Fibonacci support level stands as a critical test of market resilience. In a world where macro signals are improving, but sentiment remains subdued, the path forward will hinge on whether fundamentals can finally overpower fear.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-fed-pivots-but-markets-hold-their-breath-20251205/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j