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Markets rally on Fed easing bets: Here’s why Crypto’s move is different

Markets rally on Fed easing bets: Here’s why Crypto’s move is different

The market rally propelled by persistent expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut underscores a delicate inflexion point in global macro sentiment. Investors continue to price in a high probability of monetary easing despite lingering inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainties. This optimism has spilt over into equities, bonds, currencies, and notably, digital assets. Beneath the surface of this coordinated advance lies a complex interplay of mechanical market dynamics, institutional positioning, and technical thresholds, particularly in crypto, that suggests caution even amid apparent strength.

Equity markets reflected this cautious confidence, with US indices posting modest gains led by technology shares. The S&P 500 rose 0.3 per cent, the Dow added 0.4 per cent, and the Nasdaq climbed 0.6 per cent, indicating that risk appetite remains concentrated in sectors most sensitive to lower discount rates. At the same time, the yield curve tells a nuanced story.

While the 10-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.086 per cent, the two-year yield dropped by 2.2 basis points to 3.508 per cent, steepening the curve slightly. This signals that traders are front-running an imminent policy pivot, expecting near-term cuts without a full repricing of long-term inflation expectations. The dollar softened in response, though USD/JPY held ground as markets digested fading speculation around a December Bank of Japan rate hike. The directional bias still points toward yen appreciation as yield differentials narrow, adding further pressure on the greenback.

In this macro backdrop, the crypto market’s 6.29 per cent surge over 24 hours appears less anomalous and more like a logical extension of the broader risk-on shift. The drivers differ substantially from traditional assets. Unlike equities, which respond directly to discounted cash flows and rate expectations, crypto’s rebound was largely mechanical, fuelled by the forced unwinding of overextended short positions.

More than US$156 million in leveraged shorts were liquidated in a single day, the most since October’s volatility spike. This cascade began when Bitcoin briefly dipped to US$84,000, testing the psychological and technical floor at the 100-week simple moving average of US$86,000. That level held, triggering a classic short squeeze as traders scrambled to cover positions. The resulting vacuum sucked in fresh bids, pushing perpetual futures funding rates into positive territory at plus 0.0036 per cent, a clear signal of renewed speculative appetite.

Simultaneously, institutional activity provided a more structural underpinning to the rally, particularly in the form of XRP spot ETF inflows. On December 2 alone, US-based XRP ETFs recorded a net US$67.7 million inflow, with Grayscale’s GXRP accounting for US$45.8 million of that total. This stands out against a broader trend of altcoin outflows and persistent regulatory ambiguity surrounding Ripple’s legal standing.

The fact that institutional capital continues to accumulate XRP despite these headwinds suggests a strategic bet on eventual regulatory clarity or a broader diversification away from Bitcoin-dominant exposure. Such targeted demand helped stabilise the altcoin ecosystem during a period when broader sentiment remained fragile, as evidenced by a Fear and Greed Index reading of just 22, deep in fear territory.

Bitcoin’s price action itself warrants careful interpretation. Reclaiming the US$86,000 to US$88,000 range is significant not just because of its historical role as support, tested more than 60 times since July, but also because of what it represents structurally. It is a convergence zone where long-term holders, miners, and institutional treasuries often anchor their cost basis.

The relative strength index at 39.05, while still in oversold territory, has begun turning upward, and the MACD histogram has flipped green with a US$29 billion reading, hinting at accumulating momentum. The rally remains incomplete. A daily close above US$95,000 would be required to confirm a true reversal of the recent downtrend. Absent that, the market risks sliding back toward the US$72,000 level, where deeper liquidation clusters and lower on-chain support reside.

What is especially telling is that this rally emerged not from fresh macro catalysts or regulatory breakthroughs, but from internal market mechanics. The short squeeze cleared out weak hands, ETF inflows injected selective confidence, and technical support held just long enough to reignite speculative interest.

This combination speaks to a market in transition, one that remains highly sensitive to leverage dynamics and sentiment shifts, yet increasingly influenced by institutional flows that operate on longer time horizons. It also highlights a growing divergence. While traditional markets lean on Fed expectations as their primary narrative, crypto markets are beginning to develop their own internal logic, where on-chain activity, derivatives positioning, and ETF flows carry equal or greater weight.

Looking ahead, sustainability hinges on two factors. First, whether open interest in derivatives rebounds without reintroducing dangerous levels of leverage that could trigger another violent unwind. Second, whether ETF inflows, particularly into non-Bitcoin assets like XRP, broaden into a consistent trend rather than a one-off event. If both conditions hold, the current bounce could evolve into a more durable uptrend. If not, the market may face another round of consolidation or downside discovery, especially if the Fed’s anticipated cut fails to materialise or comes with hawkish caveats.

In conclusion, the rally across asset classes reflects a market tentatively stepping out from under the shadow of restrictive monetary policy. In crypto, the story is more intricate, a blend of technical resilience, leveraged feedback loops, and quiet institutional accumulation.

For now, the path of least resistance appears upward, but the terrain remains treacherous. Traders would do well to monitor not just price, but the underlying structure of liquidity, positioning, and capital flows that will ultimately determine whether this rally marks a turning point or merely a reprieve.

 

Source: https://e27.co/markets-rally-on-fed-easing-bets-heres-why-cryptos-move-is-different-20251203/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Crypto’s triple threat: Exchange hack, technical rejection, and Fed policy fog

Crypto’s triple threat: Exchange hack, technical rejection, and Fed policy fog

The crypto market’s 1.24 per cent decline over the past 24 hours reflects a convergence of distinct yet interlocking pressures: security vulnerabilities, technical resistance, and macroeconomic ambiguity. All of this unfolds against the backdrop of a quiet US holiday week. While the broader seven-day trend remains in positive territory at plus 4.26 per cent, the short-term retracement underscores the fragility of risk sentiment in an environment where liquidity thins, correlations tighten, and geopolitical shocks reverberate through digital asset markets with amplified force.

This week’s bearish tilt lies in the Upbit hack, a stark reminder that even regulated, institutionally backed exchanges remain high-value targets for sophisticated threat actors. On November 27, South Korea’s largest cryptocurrency platform confirmed a theft of US$30.4 million in digital assets, with early forensic evidence pointing squarely to North Korea’s Lazarus Group. This attribution carries weight not only because of its geopolitical implications but also due to the group’s notorious track record of targeting crypto infrastructure to fund regime activities.

The market’s immediate reaction, a plunge into Extreme Fear as measured by the Fear & Greed Index dropping to 20, demonstrates how legacy concerns about custody and exchange security continue to haunt an asset class striving for mainstream legitimacy. Investors responded by rotating capital toward perceived safe havens within the crypto universe, notably Bitcoin, whose dominance rose to 58.61 per cent. This flight to relative stability highlights a recurring pattern. When trust in centralised intermediaries erodes, decentralised base-layer assets often benefit, even if only temporarily.

Compounding this security-driven caution was a decisive technical breakdown in Bitcoin’s price structure. For days, US$92,000 had served as a critical psychological and structural resistance level. The failure to sustain a breakout above this threshold triggered a cascade of algorithmic sell orders, resulting in US$20.41 million in liquidations, predominantly short positions caught off guard by the initial dip but unable to recover as momentum faded. Technical indicators further reinforced the bearish undertone. While the 14-day RSI at 42.63 remains technically neutral, it shows a clear loss of upward momentum, slipping from overbought territory earlier in the week.

Meanwhile, the MACD histogram, though still positive at plus 20.24 billion, presents a troubling divergence. Price action contradicts the bullish signal implied by the indicator, suggesting a weakening of buyers’ conviction. Compounding the issue, derivatives open interest fell by nearly 5 per cent, signalling that leveraged traders are stepping back, a classic sign of risk aversion ahead of major macroeconomic events.

This brings us to the third pillar of today’s market dynamics: macro correlation and policy uncertainty. Despite the US equity markets being closed for Thanksgiving, crypto did not trade in isolation. Its seven-day correlation with the Nasdaq-100, measured via the QQQ ETF, has surged to an unusually tight 0.92. This near-perfect linkage means that even in the absence of US equity trading, crypto remains hostage to the same macro narratives driving tech stocks, namely, the path of Federal Reserve policy. Recent US jobs data came in stronger than expected, tempering market expectations for aggressive rate cuts.

While UOB still anticipates a 25 basis point reduction at the December 17 FOMC meeting, the probability has softened from near-certainty to approximately 85 per cent. This shift matters deeply for crypto, which has increasingly functioned as a risk-sensitive asset class. The slowdown in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, dropping to just US$21 million on November 26 compared to US$128 million on prior high-volume days, reflects institutional hesitation. With the Fed entering its pre-meeting blackout period this weekend through December 12, 2025, traders are left to navigate a policy vacuum, relying on lagging indicators and thin holiday liquidity to set prices.

That thin liquidity has magnified market volatility. Total 24-hour trading volume across major exchanges fell by 21.5 per cent, a typical seasonal pattern during US holidays, but one that exacerbates price swings when large orders enter the market. In such environments, even modest sell pressure, whether from hacked assets being offloaded or leveraged positions unwinding, can trigger outsized moves. This dynamic is particularly acute in crypto, where market depth remains shallower than in traditional equities or FX markets, despite growing institutional participation.

Within this short-term turbulence, structural undercurrents remain supportive. The broader macro environment still points toward impending monetary easing. Bond markets signal renewed appetite for fixed income, with UOB noting that spread widening has made quality bonds attractive again, a precursor to rate cuts. Meanwhile, the US dollar has held steady, and Asian currencies are gaining modest ground, buoyed by easing trade tensions and a stable Chinese yuan. These factors create a more favourable external backdrop for risk assets, including crypto, once the immediate fog of uncertainty lifts.

Looking ahead, three variables will dictate the market’s next directional move. First, developments in the Upbit investigation could either calm nerves if authorities confirm containment and recovery efforts or deepen panic if stolen funds begin circulating widely. Second, Bitcoin’s ability to hold the 89,080 dollar level, which corresponds to the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement of its recent rally, will serve as a critical technical support.

A breakdown below this level could invite further liquidations and test deeper support zones. Third, and most importantly, Friday’s release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will offer the clearest signal yet on whether December’s anticipated rate cut remains on track. A softer print would likely reignite risk appetite across equities, bonds, and crypto alike, while a hotter-than-expected reading could extend the current period of caution.

In sum, today’s dip is not a reversal of trend but a recalibration, a moment of hesitation amid overlapping uncertainties. The crypto market, now deeply enmeshed in the global macro framework, cannot escape the gravitational pull of Fed policy, tech sector sentiment, or geopolitical risk. Its resilience over the past week, despite the Upbit breach and technical rejection, suggests underlying demand remains intact.

The challenge for market participants lies in distinguishing transient noise from structural shifts. In a world where digital assets increasingly mirror traditional financial cycles, patience and precision will determine who navigates this transitional phase most successfully.

 

Source: https://e27.co/cryptos-triple-threat-exchange-hack-technical-rejection-and-fed-policy-fog-20251128/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Fed rate cut odds hit 85 per cent: Here’s how stocks, crypto, and gold are reacting

Fed rate cut odds hit 85 per cent: Here’s how stocks, crypto, and gold are reacting

Market movements have shaped a complex but increasingly hopeful outlook across both traditional and digital asset markets, primarily fuelled by evolving expectations about Federal Reserve policy. Central to this momentum is a mounting belief that interest rate cuts are on the horizon. Financial markets now place an 84.9 per cent likelihood on a 25 basis point reduction at the December FOMC meeting. This shift in sentiment has ignited a widespread rally, pushing equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies higher in a coordinated risk-on surge that underscores how tightly asset prices are now linked to macroeconomic signals.

The labour market data released on November 26 provided critical fuel for this optimism. Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 fell to 216,000, marking the lowest level since mid-April and coming in well below the median forecast of 226,000. This third consecutive weekly decline signals continued resilience in the employment sector, but in the current environment where inflation appears to be moderating and growth concerns linger, the market interpreted the report as dovish. This interpretation aligns with UOB’s ongoing forecast of a 25 bps cut in December, now seemingly corroborated by real-time market pricing.

Equity markets responded enthusiastically. On Wednesday, November 26, the S&P 500 rose 0.7 per cent, the Nasdaq gained 0.8 per cent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.7 per cent, with technology stocks leading the charge. The gains extended a four-day winning streak in a holiday-shortened week, underscoring investor confidence in a pivot toward looser monetary conditions.

Notably, the US market closed early in observance of Thanksgiving, leaving Asian markets to carry the momentum into the next trading session. This global transmission of sentiment was evident in South Korea’s KOSPI, which surged 2.67 per cent on November 26 to close at 3,960.87, its strongest single-day advance in weeks. Regional indices across Asia followed suit, reinforcing a strategic tilt toward non-US value and mid-cap equities as sources of alpha, particularly in technology and dividend-yielding sectors.

Fixed-income markets reflected a more cautious recalibration. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note held steady at approximately 4.00 per cent, while the 2-year yield edged slightly higher to 3.47 per cent, resulting in a 10Y-2Y spread of about 53 basis points. This modest flattening suggests that while near-term rate expectations are shifting, longer-term inflation and growth concerns remain anchored. Nevertheless, the widening spread between equities and bonds is beginning to make fixed income more attractive, prompting institutional investors to accumulate high-quality bonds in anticipation of a Fed pivot gradually. The relative stability of the 10-year yield amid equity rallies suggests the bond market is not fully pricing in aggressive easing but remains open to modest cuts if inflation data cooperate.

Currency and commodity markets further validated the risk-on narrative. The US dollar weakened broadly, with Asian currencies like the Korean won and Singapore dollar strengthening as the expected narrowing of the Fed-Asia yield differential reduced the appeal of dollar-denominated assets. Brent crude oil edged higher to US$63.04 per barrel, supported by expectations that lower interest rates could stimulate global demand. Even more striking was gold’s ascent to US$4,163.51 per ounce, a 0.8 per cent increase that reaffirmed its role as a defensive hedge amid monetary uncertainty. Gold’s performance, up nearly 58 per cent year-to-date, reflects not just inflation hedging but also a broader loss of confidence in fiat monetary regimes, a theme that resonates deeply in the cryptocurrency space.

Speaking of crypto, the digital asset market rallied 2.5 per cent over the 24 hours ending November 27, reclaiming a market capitalisation near US$3.07 trillion, a key Fibonacci retracement level. This rebound emerged from a state of extreme fear, as measured by sentiment indicators, and closely tracked the Nasdaq’s gains, with a 24-hour correlation of plus 0.84. Three interlocking forces drove this recovery.

First, technical indicators signalled a classic oversold bounce. Bitcoin’s RSI-14 had dipped to 36.09, bordering on oversold territory, while the MACD histogram turned positive, reflecting a shift in momentum. This setup was amplified by a short squeeze; US$74 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, with 87 per cent attributed to short sellers. Such dynamics often accelerate upward price action as forced buying meets opportunistic dip-buying.

Second, Ethereum witnessed significant off-exchange accumulation. On-chain data from Santiment showed a 49 per cent weekly decline in ETH exchange reserves, equivalent to roughly US$4 billion in value. This movement suggests large holders, whales, and institutions are withdrawing supply from liquid markets, tightening available float, and reducing immediate sell pressure. The trend was reinforced by BlackRock’s ETH ETF, which recorded US$92.6 million in inflows on November 24, its first positive flow in two weeks. This institutional re-engagement, occurring just as ETH tests the 3,000-dollar resistance level, points to strategic positioning ahead of potential macro catalysts.

Third, macro tailwinds provided the overarching narrative. With an 85 per cent market-implied probability of a December rate cut, risk assets across the board benefited from renewed liquidity expectations. However, sustainability remains uncertain. Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple, a metric comparing daily miner revenue to its 365-day average, stands at 0.67, above historical bear market bottoms but not yet signalling undervaluation. This suggests that while the macro backdrop is supportive, crypto-specific fundamentals have not yet reached a point of compelling long-term value.

In conclusion, today’s rally is a fragile synthesis of technical relief, institutional accumulation, and macro optimism. The alignment between crypto and equities, particularly the Nasdaq, has turned digital assets into a high-beta proxy for Fed policy expectations. This very correlation exposes crypto to reversal if incoming data, such as the US PCE inflation report, contradicts rate-cut assumptions. Should the Fed deliver as expected, the stage may be set for a sustained recovery. But without improvements in on-chain fundamentals, network activity, user adoption, and real yield generation, the rally may prove ephemeral, a mere leveraged echo of traditional market sentiment rather than a foundation for a new paradigm.

 

Source: https://e27.co/fed-rate-cut-odds-hit-85-per-cent-heres-how-stocks-crypto-and-gold-are-reacting-20251127/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j