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Record gold, falling yields, and rising Bitcoin: The interwoven narrative of modern risk assets

Record gold, falling yields, and rising Bitcoin: The interwoven narrative of modern risk assets

Despite weaker-than-expected private payroll data and the onset of a US federal government shutdown, risk appetite remained surprisingly resilient. This resilience is not born of complacency but rather of a recalibration in expectations around monetary policy, particularly the growing conviction that the Federal Reserve may soon pivot toward rate cuts.

The ADP National Employment Report showed a decline of 32,000 private-sector jobs in September, following a revised 3,000 decrease in August, standing in stark contrast to the median Bloomberg survey forecast of a 51,000 gain. This miss reinforced market bets that the labour market is cooling, thereby increasing the likelihood of a dovish shift from the Fed later this month.

The immediate market reaction was telling: US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield dropping 5.2 basis points to close at 4.098 per cent, while the US Dollar Index edged down 0.07 per cent to 97.7. Simultaneously, gold surged to a record high of US$3,865.70 per ounce, a classic safe-haven move that also signals growing confidence in lower-for-longer rate expectations.

Equity markets responded with cautious optimism. Wall Street closed higher on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones gaining 0.09 per cent, the S&P 500 up 0.3 per cent, and the Nasdaq climbing 0.4 per cent. The healthcare sector provided strong support, suggesting investors are rotating into defensive yet growth-oriented segments amid macro crosscurrents.

Asian equities followed suit, mainly ending higher and continuing their upward trajectory in early Thursday trading, led by gains in semiconductor and broader technology stocks. US equity index futures pointed to further upside at the open, underscoring a broader narrative: markets are pricing in a soft landing scenario, where economic data deteriorates just enough to prompt Fed accommodation without triggering a full-blown recession.

This nuanced outlook has created fertile ground for alternative assets, particularly cryptocurrencies, which have begun to reassert their role not just as speculative instruments but as potential macro hedges.

The crypto market rose 3.91 per cent over the past 24 hours, extending a seven-day gain of 4.11 per cent. This sustained rally is not driven by retail FOMO alone but by structural developments that signal deeper institutional entrenchment and regulatory progress.

Three key catalysts stand out: the launch of institutional-grade Bitcoin options, regulatory maturation in Asia, particularly Hong Kong, and a surge in decentralised finance (DeFi) liquidity through major platform integrations. Each of these factors contributes to a more robust and credible ecosystem, one that increasingly appeals to traditional finance participants seeking exposure to digital assets without compromising on risk management or compliance.

The debut of Bitcoin options on Bullish Exchange on October 8 marks a significant milestone in the institutionalisation of crypto. Backed by heavyweight players such as BlackRock, Galaxy, Cumberland, and Wintermute, this offering arrives at a time when open interest in crypto derivatives has already reached a yearly high of US$1.24 trillion, up 30 per cent month-over-month.

Weekly inflows into Bitcoin ETFs reached US$571 million, further validating demand from regulated investment vehicles. Options markets deepen liquidity, enable sophisticated hedging strategies, and reduce volatility over time by allowing large players to manage risk without selling spot holdings.

The immediate market response was telling: perpetual funding rates surged 207 per cent within 24 hours, indicating a sharp increase in leveraged long positioning. This suggests that institutional participants are not just passively investing but actively expressing bullish macro views through derivatives. If trading volume on the new options platform proves robust, it could cement Bitcoin’s status as a legitimate macro hedge akin to gold but with asymmetric upside potential in a low-rate environment.

Parallel to this institutional build-out, Asia is emerging as a critical regulatory laboratory for crypto adoption. Hong Kong’s Monetary Authority (HKMA) has received 36 applications for stablecoin licenses, with submissions coming from established banks and major tech firms.

This signals a shift from regulatory ambiguity to structured oversight, a prerequisite for large-scale institutional capital deployment. Stablecoins serve as the on-ramp and off-ramp for digital asset ecosystems, and their formal regulation removes a major friction point for traditional finance integration.

In South Korea, SK Planet’s adoption of Moca Network’s decentralised identity system triggered a 60 per cent rally in ZEN, illustrating how real-world utility can drive value in privacy-focused protocols. Crucially, crypto-equity correlations remain elevated at +0.76 against the Nasdaq, meaning that positive sentiment in tech equities continues to spill over into digital assets. As Asian regulators provide clearer guardrails, they reduce the jurisdictional risk that has long deterred pension funds, asset managers, and corporate treasuries from entering the space.

Meanwhile, DeFi is experiencing a quiet but significant expansion in accessibility. Coinbase’s integration of 1inch’s Swap API now grants its users access to millions of tokens across decentralised exchanges. This move contributed to a 17.92 per cent spike in spot trading volumes, though derivatives still dominate 84 per cent of total crypto volume.

The integration lowers the barrier to entry for retail investors seeking exposure to emerging narratives such as privacy coins like Zcash, which jumped 60 per cent. However, the Altcoin Season Index dipped 3.23 per cent, suggesting that while capital is exploring beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, it has not yet committed to a broad-based rotation.

This hesitation may reflect lingering caution or simply the time lag between infrastructure development and narrative adoption. Either way, the trend points toward a more interconnected and liquid DeFi landscape, where centralised platforms act as bridges to decentralised liquidity.

Taken together, these developments paint a picture of a maturing asset class. The current rally is not a speculative bubble but a reflection of tangible progress on multiple fronts: institutional infrastructure, regulatory clarity, and technological interoperability. The confluence of Bullish Exchange’s options launch, Hong Kong’s stablecoin licensing momentum, and Coinbase’s DeFi integration represents a trifecta of credibility-building measures.

These are the foundations upon which a sustainable, long-term bull market can be built, not on hype, but on infrastructure. The path forward will not be linear, and leverage remains a double-edged sword, but the structural tailwinds are stronger than they have ever been. Traders must remain vigilant.

Open interest has risen 14 per cent in a single day, indicating that leverage is building rapidly. In a market still sensitive to macro surprises, a sudden shift in sentiment, perhaps triggered by stronger-than-expected US jobs data, could spark a short squeeze or a wave of liquidations.

The upcoming US nonfarm payrolls report, though potentially delayed due to the government shutdown, remains a critical inflection point. fA weak print would likely reinvigorate rate-cut expectations, further boosting risk assets and strengthening the correlation between crypto and traditional markets. Conversely, a resilient labor market could force a reassessment of the dovish narrative, testing the durability of this rally.

In essence, the crypto market is at a crossroads. It is no longer solely driven by retail enthusiasm or macro liquidity cycles. Instead, it is being reshaped by institutional architecture, regulatory milestones, and real-world utility. As such, the current price action should be viewed not as a fleeting surge but as the market pricing in a new phase of digital asset evolution.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/record-gold-falling-yields-and-rising-bitcoin-the-interwoven-narrative-of-modern-risk-assets-20251002/

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#Plume ($PLUME)- Plume is a modular Layer 2 blockchain network developed to support real-world asset finance (RWAfi).
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Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Diverging signals: Dow rises, gold breaks records, and crypto faces derivatives squeeze

Diverging signals: Dow rises, gold breaks records, and crypto faces derivatives squeeze

As the United States inches closer to a federal government shutdown, with no resolution in sight after talks between congressional leaders and President Donald Trump ended without progress on Monday, investors are navigating a complex web of signals.

Wall Street stays resilient amid shutdown fears

Despite the looming administrative paralysis, Wall Street closed higher on Tuesday, extending its winning streak into a second consecutive quarter. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2 per cent, the S&P 500 gained 0.4 per cent, and the Nasdaq added 0.3 per cent.

This resilience suggests that market participants either believe the shutdown will be short-lived or have already priced in its limited economic impact, given that past shutdowns have rarely derailed broader market trends for long.

Treasury yields and gold signal investor anxiety

Beneath the surface, subtle shifts in asset prices reveal deeper unease. US Treasury yields moved in opposite directions, reflecting a classic flight-to-quality dynamic mixed with short-term policy uncertainty. The 10-year yield inched up by one basis point to 4.148 per cent, while the 2-year yield fell by two basis points to 3.612 per cent.

This flattening of the yield curve often signals that investors expect near-term economic disruptions, such as a government shutdown, to weigh on growth, even if longer-term inflation or fiscal concerns remain elevated. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index declined 0.1 per cent to 97.8, indicating a modest retreat in safe-haven demand for the greenback.

In contrast, gold surged 0.6 per cent to a record high of US$3,858.18 per ounce, underscoring its enduring role as a hedge against political and institutional instability. The precious metal’s ascent to unprecedented levels speaks volumes about the depth of investor anxiety, even as equities hold firm.

Oil and Asian markets reflect fragile demand

Commodities tell a different story. Brent crude oil dropped 1.4 per cent to US$67 per barrel, pressured by expectations that OPEC+ may accelerate its planned output increases in the coming months. This potential supply boost comes at a time when global demand outlooks remain fragile, particularly with China, the world’s largest oil importer, entering its week-long National Day holiday.

Asian equities reflected this caution, trading mixed on Tuesday and lower in early sessions on Wednesday, with mainland China and Hong Kong markets shuttered for the festivities. The absence of Chinese participation in regional trading has amplified volatility and reduced liquidity, leaving other markets more exposed to external shocks, including developments in Washington and shifts in US monetary policy expectations.

Crypto faces a risk-off correction

The crypto market declined 0.51 per cent over the past 24 hours, aligning with the broader theme of risk-off behaviour and profit-taking following recent rallies. Two distinct forces are shaping this correction: regulatory evolution and the dynamics of the derivatives market.

On the regulatory front, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued new guidance allowing state-chartered trust companies, such as those operated by Coinbase, to act as custodians for investment advisers managing crypto assets.

At first glance, this appears to be a significant step toward institutional legitimacy. Long-term, it could pave the way for greater participation from traditional finance players who have long cited custody as a primary barrier to entry.

However, the guidance comes with stringent requirements, including mandatory annual audits and strict asset segregation protocols. These conditions have sparked operational concerns among crypto firms, many of which now face the prospect of higher compliance costs and structural overhauls.

As a result, the short-term market reaction has been one of caution rather than celebration. The progress is real, but the path to implementation remains uncertain, and the industry is watching closely for follow-up rule-making and clarity on adoption timelines from major platforms.

Simultaneously, the derivatives market is flashing warning signs. Perpetual futures open interest, a key gauge of leveraged positioning, fell by 5.48 per cent even as trading volume surged by 16.78 per cent. This divergence suggests that traders are actively unwinding leveraged long positions rather than initiating new ones. Compounding the pressure, average funding rates spiked to 0.0068, a staggering 354 per cent increase over 24 hours.

In perpetual futures markets, funding rates represent the cost of maintaining leveraged positions; when they turn sharply positive, it often indicates excessive bullish sentiment that becomes unsustainable. The recent surge suggests that longs were willing to pay a premium to stay in the market, creating a fragile equilibrium that ultimately collapsed under the weight of profit-taking and margin calls.

Notably, US$50 million in liquidations hit the XPL token alone, highlighting how concentrated leverage in smaller altcoins can amplify broader market selloffs. Historically, such spikes in funding rates precede heightened volatility, and if rates turn persistently negative, it could signal a deeper bearish shift as shorts dominate the market.

The current dip in crypto prices thus reflects a tug-of-war between structural progress and cyclical risk reduction. On one side, regulatory clarity around custody could eventually unlock billions in institutional capital, particularly if traditional asset managers gain confidence in secure, compliant infrastructure.

On the other hand, traders are aggressively trimming exposure in anticipation of near-term headwinds not just from potential SEC enforcement actions but also from macro crosscurrents like the US government shutdown and shifting Treasury dynamics.

This tension is further exacerbated by outflows from crypto ETFs, which have seen US$418 million exit Bitcoin funds and US$248 million leave Ethereum products recently. These outflows suggest that even regulated vehicles are not immune to sentiment swings, and that spot market demand may be insufficient to absorb the selling pressure from leveraged traders and cautious institutions alike.

The weeks ahead

Looking ahead, the critical support level for Bitcoin sits at US$113,000. A decisive break below this threshold could trigger further technical selling, especially if derivatives markets remain unstable.

Conversely, holding above this level might attract bargain hunters, particularly if the SEC’s custody framework begins to translate into tangible institutional inflows. Altcoins like Aster and Hyperbot face additional challenges due to supply-side constraints, which could either cushion their downside or exacerbate volatility depending on market liquidity.

Ultimately, the next few weeks will test whether the cryptocurrency market can decouple from macroeconomic noise and regulatory ambiguity, or whether it remains tethered to the same risk calculus that governs traditional assets. For now, prudence prevails, and the record highs in gold alongside muted equity gains suggest that even in a world of rising asset prices, uncertainty remains the dominant currency.

 

Source: https://e27.co/diverging-signals-dow-rises-gold-breaks-records-and-crypto-faces-derivatives-squeeze-20251001/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The rate cut rally: Earnings, gold, and Bitcoin in the balance

The rate cut rally: Earnings, gold, and Bitcoin in the balance

History shows that equities often deliver solid gains in the year following the start of such cycles, with the S&P 500 averaging around 14 per cent returns over 12 months based on past data from various cycles. Yet the initial month after the first cut tends to bring choppiness, as markets adjust to shifting monetary policy.

In this case, equities rallied strongly leading up to the cut, pushing the S&P 500 up 15 per cent in the past six months and a whopping 32 per cent from its yearly lows. I see this preemptive surge as a sign of market optimism, but it also raises flags for potential consolidation ahead.

Investors priced in these cuts long ago, so the real test comes from upcoming events like speeches from 10 FOMC governors and the PCE inflation report due on September 26. If inflation data surprises on the upside, volatility could spike, reminding everyone that even dovish Fed actions carry risks in an economy where growth projections and unemployment trends diverge sharply.

Fund managers’ bold bets on risk assets

Fund managers continue to lean heavily into risk assets, particularly equities, despite nagging worries about persistent inflation and a weakening US dollar. This positioning strikes me as bold, perhaps overly so, given the mixed signals from the broader economy. Many in the industry view artificial intelligence as a deflationary force that could counter current inflationary pressures, an idea that holds water when you consider how AI efficiencies might drive down costs in sectors like manufacturing and services.

Gold’s performance this year underscores these tensions, with prices surging 38 per cent year-to-date amid buoyant rate-cut expectations and geopolitical uncertainties. Research into recent gold price drivers points to factors like central bank buying, trade tensions, and lower interest rates making the metal more appealing as a hedge.

However, fund flows indicate much of this buying stems from speculation rather than genuine hedging, and professional asset managers maintain low exposure to gold and digital assets. In my view, this creates intriguing opportunities for savvy investors to buy on dips, especially as gold hit US$3685.30 per ounce recently. The under-allocation by institutions suggests room for further upside if economic headwinds intensify, but it also warns against chasing the rally without careful consideration.

Balancing strategy: Barbell approach and diversification

Strategic advice in this environment boils down to respecting the Fed’s direction without blindly following the herd. The central bank’s dovish stance supports companies with strong earnings growth, yet piling into mega-cap tech stocks at current valuations feels precarious. A barbell approach makes sense here, where you hold core positions in quality names, add selectively during pullbacks, and diversify into global themes and yield-focused plays.

Singapore’s yield stocks stand out, having outperformed the S&P 500 over both five- and ten-year periods, which bolsters the argument for regional diversification beyond US borders. I favour this strategy because it balances growth potential with income stability, particularly in a world where US-centric portfolios risk overexposure to domestic policy shifts.

With the Fed projecting more cuts on October 29 and December 12, lower rates could fuel corporate borrowing and expansion, but diverging economic indicators demand vigilance. Unemployment might tick up if growth slows more than expected, potentially pressuring equities despite the supportive policy backdrop.

Macro shifts and geopolitical influences

Turning to the broader macro picture, global risk sentiment holds firm thanks to the allure of additional rate cuts enhancing corporate earnings outlooks. The week ahead features the high-level General Debate at the 80th UN General Assembly starting Tuesday, with President Trump addressing the opening session and Fed Chair Powell discussing the economic outlook. These events could inject fresh narratives into markets, especially amid positive developments in US-China relations.

President Trump’s recent conversation with Chinese leadership led to a deal on the popular Chinese-owned social media app TikTok, allowing it to continue operations in the US under new controls, which eased some trade anxieties. Wall Street responded enthusiastically, with major indices hitting record highs on Friday, the Dow Jones up 0.37 per cent, S&P 500 up 0.49 per cent, and Nasdaq up 0.72 per cent.

Treasury yields edged higher, the 10-year at 4.127 per cent and the 2-year at 3.572 per cent, reflecting a mix of growth optimism and inflation watchfulness. The dollar index climbed 0.30 per cent to 97.64, while gold rose 1.1 per cent on rate-cut bets. Brent crude dipped 1.1 per cent to US$66.68 per barrel following EU sanctions on Russian oil vessels and buyers, highlighting ongoing energy market fragilities. Asian equities showed mixed results Friday and in early trading today, with US futures pointing to a lower open, suggesting caution amid these crosscurrents.

Bitcoin volatility and regulatory headwinds

Bitcoin’s recent dip adds another layer to the market mosaic, with the cryptocurrency falling 0.93 per cent to US$114,566 over the past 24 hours, lagging the broader crypto market’s 1.91 per cent decline. This underperformance stems from profit-taking after hitting recent highs, technical breakdowns near the US$115,400 resistance level, and regulatory uncertainties.

Drawing from similar patterns in September 2024 analyses, when Bitcoin traded around US$63,000 and faced consolidation phases, the current setup echoes familiar volatility drivers like leverage unwinds and momentum shifts. Over US$176 million in long positions were liquidated as prices tested US$115,000 support, amplifying the drop in a classic liquidity trap where open interest spiked 4.14 per cent to US$937 billion.

Traders piled in near resistance, only to face swift reversals, which I interpret as a healthy correction in an asset that has risen 81 per cent year-to-date. The failure to break above the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement at US$115,400 triggered algorithmic selling, with the MACD histogram still positive at +265 but RSI hovering around 51-53, indicating waning momentum.

Bulls must secure a close above that level to reclaim initiative; otherwise, a breach of US$114,500, the 30-day simple moving average, could cascade toward US$110,000.

Regulatory developments weigh heavily on Bitcoin’s short-term path, presenting a neutral but noisy influence. The US Treasury’s commentary on the GENIUS Act, issued on September 20, emphasises stablecoin regulations requiring full reserves in liquid assets like Treasuries and technological capabilities for freezing assets, aiming to foster innovation while curbing risks. This act, signed into law earlier this year, mandates issuers to comply with federal laws, potentially stabilising the crypto ecosystem but introducing oversight that cools institutional enthusiasm.

Meanwhile, the EU’s MiCA regulation drives exchange consolidation, enforcing consumer protections, market integrity, and restrictions on stablecoin use as exchange mediums, which impacts global flows. Exchanges adapting to MiCA gain credibility and access to unified EU markets, but the compliance shifts have slowed inflows, with ETF volumes dipping and minor outflows from products like GBTC.

In my opinion, these headwinds represent growing pains for the sector; long-term clarity should prove bullish by attracting more institutional capital, yet the immediate uncertainty often halts rallies, as seen in past cycles.

Closing thoughts: Cautious optimism ahead

Overall, the market’s resilience amid the Fed’s pivot impresses me, but I remain cautious about overextended positions in tech and crypto. The historical precedent of positive equity returns post-rate cuts offers encouragement, yet the unique blend of geopolitical events like the UNGA, US-China thawing via the TikTok agreement, and persistent inflation worries calls for measured optimism. Gold’s speculative surge and Bitcoin’s technical wobbles serve as barometers for broader risk appetite, suggesting investors diversify thoughtfully.

The barbell strategy aligns with my view that quality growers paired with yield plays provide a sturdy foundation, especially as Singapore’s outperformance demonstrates the value of global exposure. With PCE data looming and more Fed cuts on the horizon, markets could consolidate, but the underlying dovish support tilts the scales toward gradual upside. Still, chasing crowds in mega-caps or digital assets without waiting for pullbacks risks unnecessary pain; patience often rewards in these environments.

As we head into the final quarter, keeping an eye on unemployment trends and corporate earnings will prove crucial, potentially defining whether this cycle mirrors the average 14 per cent gain or veers into choppier territory. The economy’s divergences remind us that while the Fed guides, real-world data ultimately steers the ship.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-rate-cut-rally-earnings-gold-and-bitcoin-in-the-balance-20250922/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j