Tag Archives: looms

Fed decision looms: Crypto cracks under US$3.07T as ETFs bleed US$3.47B in one month

Fed decision looms: Crypto cracks under US$3.07T as ETFs bleed US$3.47B in one month

The crypto market’s recent pullback reflects a confluence of macro headwinds, institutional caution, and technical fragility, all unfolding against the tense anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision. While the 0.87 per cent drop over the past 24 hours appears modest on the surface, it contributes to a deeper 30-day decline of 10.72 per cent, signalling a sustained period of risk aversion rather than a fleeting correction.

This deterioration stems primarily from three interlocking dynamics: large-scale institutional selling, recalibrated monetary policy expectations, and a technical breakdown that has eroded market confidence. Each of these forces not only weighs on short-term price action but also reshapes the strategic calculus for both institutional allocators and retail participants navigating this transitional phase.

Institutional behaviour has shifted decisively bearish in recent weeks. Galaxy Digital, a bellwether firm led by Mike Novogratz, has been at the centre of this trend, transferring 900 BTC valued at approximately US$81.6 million to a newly created wallet, likely linked to an exchange. This transaction aligns with a broader pattern of distribution, including a reported sale of 2,800 BTC worth roughly US$250 million as Bitcoin traded below US$90,000 in mid-November. Such moves signal that major players are taking profits or hedging against further downside, removing a key pillar of support that had previously underpinned the market during rallies.

The outflows extend beyond on-chain movements into regulated financial products. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, once the poster child of institutional adoption, has experienced record redemptions, shedding US$2.3 billion in November alone. Cumulative outflows across US spot Bitcoin ETFs reached US$3.47 billion for the month, dragging total Bitcoin ETF assets under management down to US$122.92 billion, an 11.5 per cent decline from October levels. This withdrawal of institutional capital directly weakens demand at a time when macro uncertainty demands liquidity and flexibility.

Compounding this selling pressure, expectations for Federal Reserve easing have significantly cooled. Markets now price in just 75 basis points of rate cuts for 2026, a notable retreat from the 100 basis points anticipated a month prior. This repricing reflects a more hawkish stance from Fed officials and resilient US economic data, which together have dampened hopes for a dovish pivot in the near term. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that while a 25 basis point cut in the December FOMC meeting remains probable, the path forward appears less certain and more data-dependent than previously assumed.

This tightening of financial conditions translates directly into lower risk appetite across all asset classes, with speculative assets like cryptocurrencies feeling the heat first and most acutely. A critical counterbalance has emerged from the regulatory front. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission launched a landmark pilot program on December 8, 2025, that officially permits Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDC to be used as margin collateral in US derivatives markets.

This development is a major structural win for the industry, as it formally integrates digital assets into the core plumbing of traditional finance. While this news provides a long-term tailwind by enhancing capital efficiency and institutional utility, its immediate impact is muted against the overwhelming force of macro caution and profit-taking.

From a technical perspective, the market structure has also deteriorated. The total crypto market capitalisation, now hovering around US$3.07 trillion, has traded below both its 7-day and 30-day simple moving averages of US$3.09 trillion and US$3.12 trillion, respectively. This breakdown below key trendlines confirms the shift from a bullish to a bearish short-term bias. Furthermore, the composition of the market reveals a flight to relative safety within the crypto ecosystem itself. Bitcoin dominance has climbed to 58.56 per cent, its highest level in recent months, while altcoin dominance has collapsed to 29.25 per cent, a 12-month low.

The rotation suggests that even among those holding crypto, capital is consolidating into Bitcoin as the primary store of value, abandoning more speculative altcoins. This dynamic is particularly concerning because a healthy bull market typically requires broad-based participation across the asset class, not just strength in the flagship asset. The current setup leaves the market vulnerable to a deeper liquidation cascade if Bitcoin fails to hold critical support levels, such as the US$89,500 mark, which has become a key psychological and technical floor.

The broader macro environment provides additional context. US equities retreated ahead of the Fed decision, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all posting losses, while Treasury yields continued their upward march, with the 10-year yield breaching 4.16 per cent. In a curious but strategically significant development, former President Donald Trump granted Nvidia permission to export its advanced H200 AI chips to China, contingent on a 25 per cent surcharge paid to the US government.

Looking at this move, while seemingly isolated to the semiconductor sector, injects a complex geopolitical variable into the market, highlighting the ongoing tension between technological decoupling and commercial pragmatism. For the crypto market, which is highly correlated with tech stocks and risk sentiment, any development that introduces new uncertainty or shifts the global liquidity outlook is a material factor.

In conclusion, the crypto market finds itself at a critical juncture, caught between the immediate pressures of institutional de-risking and a less accommodative monetary policy outlook, and the long-term promise of deeper institutional integration through initiatives like the CFTC’s collateral pilot. The current consolidation is not merely a price correction but a fundamental reassessment of the drivers of value in a new macro regime.

The path forward hinges almost entirely on the Federal Reserve’s communication in its upcoming announcement. A dovish tilt could spark a powerful relief rally, drawing capital back from the sidelines and potentially pushing the total market cap toward the US$3.25 trillion range.

A hawkish surprise or a higher for longer message would likely accelerate the current downtrend, testing major Fibonacci support levels around US$2.89 trillion. Until that clarity emerges, the market will remain in a state of cautious limbo, with Bitcoin’s ability to defend its key support levels serving as the primary indicator of whether this is a pause in a larger bull run or the beginning of a more protracted bear phase.

Source: https://e27.co/fed-decision-looms-crypto-cracks-under-us3-07t-as-etfs-bleed-us3-47b-in-one-month-20251209/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Quantum computing threat looms over Asia’s financial systems: ‘we are not secure’

Quantum computing threat looms over Asia’s financial systems: ‘we are not secure’

Swathes of Asia’s financial systems are vulnerable to potential disruption from quantum computing technology, including those hosting secure transactions, industry executives have warned.

Only a handful of major economies in the region, such as China, Japan, South Korea and Singapore, have embarked on strategies to safeguard their systems, but most financial institutions across the region are vulnerable to quantum attacks because they are ill prepared, experts say.

The threat looms even as digital wallets and real-time payment systems are widely being used and deeply integrated into the financial systems. Quantum computing is a new branch of processing which can solve complex problems within minutes or hours that might take a classical computer thousands of years to crack.

While it will allow scientists to test and discover new medicines speedily, build climate modelling systems and accelerate scientific research, the system also has the ability to break public-key cryptography or security systems of digital tokens such as bitcoin.

“Asia’s financial systems face an existential threat from quantum computing’s ability to break widely used public-key cryptographic protocols” which underpin digital signatures and enable secure communications, according to Anndy Lian, a Singapore-based intergovernmental blockchain adviser.

Once sufficiently powerful quantum computers emerge – expected within five to 10 years – they could attack stored financial data, forge digital identities and compromise interbank settlements, experts warn.

Such disruptions “could destabilise trust in digital finance”, Lian said.

“In Asean alone, where digital payment adoption is accelerating, the absence of quantum-safe infrastructure leaves trillions of transactions exposed,” he said. “Moreover, the interconnectedness of Asian financial markets means a breach in one jurisdiction could cascade regionally.”

The Asia-Pacific region is poised to become the fastest-growing market for quantum computing, driven by strong government support, significant investments and rapid digital transformation across key countries such as China, Japan, South Korea and India.

Yet regulatory frameworks lagged behind technological developments, with nations in the region lacking a coordinated strategy, Lian said.

Banks in Asia including HSBC, DBS Bank, OCBC and UOB had launched quantum computing initiatives addressing cybersecurity threats and exploring applications in areas such as trading, risk management and fraud detection, industry executives said.

The use of quantum computing across businesses and other applications is expected to become prevalent from the 2030s, according to Alexandra Beckstein, CEO of QAI Ventures, a global venture capital firm focused on quantum technology, which recently established its presence in Singapore.

Banks in the region were worried because passwords might not be safe any more, she said. “Everyone can enter the system, and this will, of course, tremendously damage the capital markets.”

Beckstein predicted that it would be possible to decrypt all the data currently stored in the early 2030s. “So every data you produce right now is potentially prone to threat, so we are not secure now, just because quantum is not happening yet,” she said.

A lot of the banks were currently implementing classical algorithms that would make it harder for a quantum computer to break encryption, she added.

Uneven safeguards

Other industry executives noted, however, that the implementation of security systems across Asia was uneven.

“Asia has bright spots where supervisors and industry are already experimenting with quantum-safe measures, yet region-wide readiness remains nascent,” said Raj Kapoor, founder and chairman of India Blockchain Alliance, noting that most institutions in Asia were only at the stage of building awareness.

According to Kapoor, Singapore is among the most well-prepared countries for the transition to quantum computing in the Asian region, while mainland China has also made significant progress in developing infrastructure. In India and Hong Kong, the momentum is building, but the preparedness is mixed.

But each major Asian market needed to set a clear timetable for developing a common framework to prevent a messy “big-bang switchover”, Kapoor said.

Experts have repeatedly urged the need for greater coordination of cyber policies in Asia, one of the fastest-growing internet markets which has also emerged as a global hotspot for cybercrime.

“Quantum computing will not immediately equip cybercriminals in Southeast Asia with quantum machines, as those remain years away from practical, widespread use. However, it fundamentally alters the threat landscape,” Lian said.

He warned that large-scale quantum computers would expose “vast troves of currently encrypted data”.

“Cybercriminals operating from the region may not wield quantum computers directly, but they will certainly exploit the fallout” by manipulating data decrypted by others, Lian said.

 

Source: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3330673/quantum-computing-threat-looms-over-asias-financial-systems-we-are-not-secure

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Jackson Hole looms: Can Powell save markets from a global risk meltdown?

Jackson Hole looms: Can Powell save markets from a global risk meltdown?

The global financial landscape presented a picture of cautious stability, with investors navigating a mix of easing geopolitical tensions and lingering uncertainties ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium later in the week. Risk sentiment held steady, buoyed by slight improvements in US fiscal outlooks and a softening of immediate concerns over international conflicts, particularly in Ukraine.

President Donald Trump’s recent affirmations of support for Ukraine, coupled with optimistic remarks about a potential summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, contributed to a modest dip in Brent crude oil prices, which fell 1.2 per cent amid growing hopes for a ceasefire.

This development rippled through energy markets, underscoring how diplomatic signals can swiftly influence commodity valuations in an interconnected world. The broader narrative remained fixated on the Fed’s upcoming gathering, where Chair Jerome Powell’s speech could provide critical clues about interest rate trajectories amid a slowing but resilient US economy.

In the US equity markets, the session unfolded with a tech-led retreat that highlighted vulnerabilities in an index heavily reliant on a handful of megacap names. The S&P 500 closed down 0.59 per cent at around 6414 points, erasing some of the gains from the previous week’s rebound and snapping a brief streak of optimism.

The Nasdaq Composite bore the brunt of the selling pressure, tumbling 1.46 per cent as investors rotated out of high-growth technology stocks amid fresh doubts about the sustainability of the artificial intelligence boom. Nvidia, a bellwether for the sector, plunged 3.5 per cent, dragging down peers and exposing the market’s narrow breadth despite over 350 S&P constituents posting gains; the index’s fate hinged on a few giants.

In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a marginal 0.02 per cent increase, supported by resilient performances in non-tech sectors like retail, where Home Depot’s earnings provided a lift. This divergence illustrated a market grappling with rotation themes, as value-oriented and cyclical stocks attempted to reclaim ground from the growth darlings that have dominated 2025’s narrative.

Bond markets offered a counterpoint of calm, with US Treasury yields dipping as traders sought safety. The two-year note yield declined two basis points to 3.75 per cent. In comparison, the benchmark 10-year yield fell 3 basis points to 4.30 per cent, reflecting tempered expectations for aggressive Fed tightening in light of recent data showing inflation pressures easing but not vanishing entirely.

Currency and commodity dynamics further painted a picture of measured adjustment rather than outright panic. The US Dollar Index edged up 0.1 per cent, steadying against a basket of peers as investors weighed the implications of a potentially hawkish Fed stance against global growth concerns.

Gold, often a haven in turbulent times, slipped 0.4 per cent, suggesting that immediate fears of escalation were subdued. Brent crude’s decline, driven by those ceasefire prospects, marked a shift from the volatility seen earlier in the year when energy prices spiked on supply disruption fears.

Trump’s reiteration of US backing for Ukraine, while expressing hope for dialogue, added a layer of geopolitical nuance that markets interpreted as de-escalatory, at least for now. These movements came against a backdrop of broader economic indicators, including a mixed bag from China’s data; retail sales slowed to 3.7 per cent in July, while property investment sank 12 per cent. Exports held firm despite US tariff pressures.

Across the Pacific, Asian equities mirrored the global caution, mainly closing lower in a session characterised by narrow ranges and selective buying. Taiwan’s Taiex fell 0.53 per cent, and South Korea’s Kospi dropped 0.81 per cent, reflecting tech sector weakness that echoed the Nasdaq’s woes, given the region’s heavy exposure to semiconductor supply chains. However, India bucked the trend, with the Sensex rising 0.46 per cent on continued momentum from weekend announcements of indirect tax cuts aimed at boosting consumer spending.

These measures, including income tax rebates totalling 1 trillion rupees, have invigorated urban households and supported sectors like retail lending and consumer discretionary goods. Early trading in Asia pointed to further softness, with US equity futures implying a lower open stateside, perpetuating the risk-off tone.

This regional performance aligns with a year where Asian markets have shown resilience amid trade tensions, with valuations remaining attractive compared to developed peers. Asia ex-Japan trades at a discount, offering entry points for long-term investors amid stable inflation and proactive fiscal policies.

The cryptocurrency space, however, stole headlines with Bitcoin’s sharp descent below US$113,000, the first such breach in over two weeks, triggering US$113 million in leveraged long position liquidations and sparking debates about the end of the bull run. From its all-time high of US$124,176 just days prior, BTC’s nine per cent plunge reflected a confluence of factors: profit-taking after a euphoric surge, mounting macroeconomic uncertainties, and a broader risk-off sentiment amplified by Trump’s trade policies and Fed ambiguity.

On-chain data revealed short-term holders selling at losses for the first time since January, with net exchange outflows of 3.4K BTC daily signaling potential capitulation. Analysts like those at The Block noted repositioning ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole address, while Forbes warned of deeper corrections if support at US$110,530 fails.

Social media buzzed with mixed reactions—some X users viewed it as a healthy reset, others feared a 70 per cent drop to US$23K-US$43K based on bearish RSI divergences. Whales appeared to buy the dip, and ETF inflows of US$17 billion in BTC and ETH over the past 60 days suggested institutional interest persists, potentially cushioning further downside.

Compounding Bitcoin’s woes was news of a US Securities and Exchange Commission probe into Alt5 Sigma, a firm entangled in a US$1.5 billion partnership with Trump-backed World Liberty Financial. The investigation centers on allegations of fraud, stock manipulation, and earnings inflation involving Alt5’s president, Jon Isaac, who claims that surfaced amid insider share sales during price surges.

World Liberty, positioning itself as a DeFi and stablecoin platform with Trump as “co-founder emeritus,” raised US$550 million via token sales, and the former president disclosed US$57.4 million in earnings from his stake. Eric Trump is set to join Alt5’s board, deepening the family’s ties. Alt5 clarified that Isaac is not its president and denied knowledge of any SEC inquiry, but the reports triggered a sharp drop in its stock. This scandal rippled through crypto sentiment, exacerbating the Nasdaq’s 1.5 per cent fall and linking political intrigue to market volatility.

Adding fuel to the tech correction was a sobering MIT NANDA report, revealing that 95 per cent of companies fail to achieve rapid revenue growth from AI pilots, based on 150 corporate interviews and 300 deployments. The study highlighted a “GenAI Divide,” with most efforts stalling due to integration challenges, hesitancy in solo implementations, and over half of 2025 AI budgets funneled into sales and marketing without proportional returns. This revelation triggered sell-offs in AI-linked stocks, amplifying doubts about the hype cycle and contributing to the Nasdaq’s woes.

From my vantage, who has chronicled market cycles for years, this day’s events underscore a pivotal inflection point. The Bitcoin plunge and SEC scrutiny on Trump-linked crypto ventures highlight the perils of intertwining politics with speculative assets. World Liberty’s rapid fundraising and high-profile ties risk amplifying regulatory backlash, potentially eroding trust in an industry still recovering from past scandals. While Trump’s involvement has injected visibility, it also invites scrutiny that could deter mainstream adoption.

On AI, the MIT findings validate growing skepticism about an overhyped revolution; with 95 per cent failure rates, we’re witnessing echoes of past tech bubbles, where promise outpaces delivery. I remain cautiously optimistic: markets have absorbed tariff shocks before, and Asia’s undervalued equities, bolstered by domestic stimulus like India’s tax cuts, offer diversification amid US concentration risks.

The Jackson Hole meeting could catalyse a rebound if Powell signals dovish intent, but investors must brace for volatility. Focusing on fundamentals over frenzy will separate winners from the washout. In a world where geopolitical whispers move billions, resilience lies in balanced portfolios that weather these storms, not chase fleeting highs.

 

Source: https://e27.co/jackson-hole-looms-can-powell-save-markets-from-a-global-risk-meltdown-20250820/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j