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Bitcoin at US$64,660: The hidden on-chain signal that suggests we’re still in a bear market

Bitcoin at US$64,660: The hidden on-chain signal that suggests we’re still in a bear market

Bitcoin recently outperformed both United States and European equities following the United States Consumer Price Index inflation report on Tuesday. This decisive move marks a strong recovery after weeks of trading sideways near recent lows. This price action is a structural shift rather than a random fluctuation.

The current market dynamics suggest that selling pressure is exhausting. Buyers are increasingly positioning themselves and waiting for positive macroeconomic catalysts to drive the next leg higher. This exhaustion of sellers often precedes significant trend reversals, especially when converging macroeconomic and onchain data support this trajectory. Independent analysis reveals patterns that mainstream narratives frequently suppress, and the current data strongly supports a bullish structural foundation for the future of decentralised finance.

The primary catalyst for this renewed momentum is undeniably macroeconomic relief. The latest Consumer Price Index report showed an unexpected 0.4 per cent monthly drop in inflation. This represents the largest cooling in inflation since April 2020. With annual inflation slowing down, macro investors have renewed confidence that the Federal Reserve may hold interest rates steady or begin cutting them in the near future. This expectation drives capital back into risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

I have long emphasised the correlation between traditional financial markets and digital assets. When macroeconomic conditions ease, liquidity inevitably seeks higher yields, and Bitcoin stands as the premier beneficiary of this global capital rotation. The market correctly prices in this shifting monetary policy landscape before official rate decisions occur, demonstrating the efficiency of decentralised markets compared to legacy systems.

Onchain metrics further validate this constructive outlook. Bitcoin continues to trade above the average on-chain cost basis of all investors. It remains below the short-term holder cost basis near US$69,000. This specific positioning provides deep insight into market psychology.

Long-term holders have largely stopped realising profits during this period. Furthermore, recent outflows have been increasingly sold at a loss. These behaviours reflect classic signs of a late-stage bear market where weak hands have already capitulated. The remaining supply sits in the wallets of conviction buyers who understand the long-term value proposition of decentralised financial infrastructure. We can clearly observe that buyers absorbed much of the selling pressure from the decline in June.

The Glassnode Accumulation Trend Score showed broad buying activity across both small and large wallet cohorts as Bitcoin traded near its recent lows. This broad accumulation indicates retail participants and sophisticated whales recognise the value at these price levels. The accumulation has since moderated as prices stabilised, signalling a healthy natural equilibrium rather than frantic speculation.

Institutional flows also reflect clear signs of improvement, even amidst broader market caution. United States spot Bitcoin ETF redemptions slowed considerably from the heavy outflows we witnessed in June. This deceleration suggests institutional selling pressure is finally stabilising. Bitcoin funds netted US$181 million in inflows on Tuesday.

This positive movement partially offset the US$424 million in outflows recorded the day before. While this reflects a minor recovery, the unwinding lacks support from strong, aggressive buying. This nuanced institutional behaviour aligns perfectly with my independent analysis of traditional finance entering the crypto space. Until inflows return and hold consistently, this remains a market where institutions have stopped fleeing but have not started buying aggressively.

Traditional financial players exercise extreme caution. They require confirmed macroeconomic shifts and sustained price stability before committing fresh capital. This cautious approach is rational, and it highlights the friction between legacy regulatory frameworks and decentralised systems. Traditional financial tests like the Howey test remain unsuitable for evaluating these decentralised crypto systems, creating temporary hesitation among institutional allocators.

The derivatives market provides additional confirmation of this shifting sentiment. Traders have steadily shifted away from bearish positioning over recent weeks. The options put-to-call ratio has fallen to its lowest level of the year. This decline indicates a substantially reduced demand for downside protection.

Smart money is adjusting its risk models, recognising that the probability of a severe downward continuation has diminished. Perpetual futures funding rates have remained slightly positive during this recovery phase. This specific metric suggests that long positioning has not become crowded.

In my experience analysing market liquidity and derivatives volume, crowded long positioning often precedes sharp, corrective liquidations. Funding rates remaining slightly positive indicate a sustainable and organic recovery. Technically, Bitcoin is currently hovering around US$64,660. This price action reflects a strong multi-day push that reclaimed the crucial US$65,000 psychological milestone.

The recent upward momentum accelerated significantly when Bitcoin broke back over the technical resistance levels between US$58,000 and US$62,000. This breakout triggered a massive wave of short covering. Traders betting on further price drops bought back their positions to limit losses. This forced buying acted as rocket fuel, pushing the price decisively past the resistance zone.

Three powerful, converging factors drive this recent upward momentum.

  • First, easing United States inflation data has provided essential macroeconomic relief.
  • Second, massive institutional ETF inflows, including over US$180 million in net inflows in a single day, led heavily by funds like BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust, demonstrate continuous whale accumulation that absorbs market supply and applies strong upward price pressure.
  • Third, short covering and forced liquidation cleared out bearish leverage, fuelling the breakout. These elements form a robust foundation for the next major expansion phase of digital assets.

I am looking forward to more changes.

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-at-us64660-the-hidden-on-chain-signal-that-suggests-were-still-in-a-bear-market-20260716/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Is the US$63,619 Fibonacci level strong enough to prevent a total unwind back down to US$62,498?

Is the US$63,619 Fibonacci level strong enough to prevent a total unwind back down to US$62,498?

The global cryptocurrency market experienced a profound structural shift over the past 24 hours, staging a major relief rally that directly challenged recent bearish momentum. Bitcoin led the charge, surging 4.10 per cent to reach a spot price of US$64,884.04 and outperforming the broader digital asset market, which posted a robust 3.71 per cent increase.

This sudden influx of buying pressure pushed the aggregate crypto market capitalisation up by 3.43 per cent, bringing the ecosystem’s total valuation to an impressive US$2.22T. Unlike isolated, native crypto events that occasionally spark volatility, this collective upward movement stemmed directly from external macroeconomic forces, signalling a tightening bond between digital assets and traditional financial markets.

The broader investment landscape witnessed a highly synchronised cross-asset response, with a remarkable 91 per cent correlation between cryptocurrency movements and the S&P 500 index and an 81 per cent correlation with Gold. These historically high statistical alignments indicate that digital assets are currently trading as a high-beta vehicle, deeply sensitive to global interest-rate expectations and broader dollar liquidity conditions.

The primary catalyst behind this aggressive market expansion was the highly anticipated release of the June United States Consumer Price Index data on July 14. In a surprise twist that caught many market participants off guard, the inflation print fell 0.4 per cent on a monthly basis due to lower energy costs, a metric that came in significantly cooler than the initial -0.1 per cent forecast.

This unexpected contraction cooled annual inflation down to a steady 3.5 per cent, delivering a massive wave of macro relief to participants who had previously feared aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Because high interest rates typically drain liquidity from highly speculative, risk-on asset classes, this sudden disinflationary evidence sparked immediate expectations of future central bank rate cuts.

Traditional tech stocks and digital assets surged in tandem as capital rapidly rotated back into growth-oriented plays. For Bitcoin, this macro development reinforces its ongoing role as a sensitive atmospheric gauge of global monetary policy, meaning that any fundamental shift in the broader interest-rate outlook can trigger massive overnight capital reallocations.

While the fundamental shift in macroeconomic sentiment laid the groundwork for the rally, the price action accelerated into a violent move due to a massive leveraged short squeeze in the derivatives markets. Traders who had positioned themselves aggressively for further downside were caught completely off guard by the positive inflation data, triggering a fierce feedback loop of forced buying.

Over the 24-hour window, the market saw a staggering US$104.12 million in Bitcoin positions wiped out by liquidations, with short sellers bearing the brunt, accounting for US$99.41 million of that total. This rapid cascading failure of short positions forced algorithmic buying engines to purchase spot and futures contracts at prevailing market rates to close out bankrupt accounts, adding immense artificial rocket fuel to the organic demand.

To complicate matters for bears, the average funding rate across major exchanges surged by an astronomical 158.42 per cent during this brief period, indicating an immediate and aggressive influx of bullish leverage as market participants scrambled to chase the breakout.

Simultaneously, the digital asset ecosystem enjoyed a healthy dose of sector leadership and speculative flow distribution that extended far beyond Bitcoin alone. Ethereum spearheaded this internal rotation by posting a notable 5.8 per cent weekly gain, significantly outperforming Bitcoin’s 2.02 per cent weekly return. This capital divergence was heavily amplified by social media chatter that framed Ethereum as a form of sound money uniquely positioned to thrive in a lower-rate economic environment, quickly establishing the Layer 1 narrative as the top-trending sector in the industry.

This speculative appetite was further validated by a massive 107 per cent surge in overall derivatives volume, alongside a steady rise in open interest, indicating that fresh institutional and retail capital was actively flowing into leveraged altcoin positions. This distinct shift in internal market dynamics indicates that the 24-hour rally was not merely a passive, index-wide response to stock market trends but rather a calculated rotation into major alternative assets, which could signal a sustained period of altcoin momentum if the Ethereum-to-Bitcoin ratio continues to strengthen.

From a strict technical and structural standpoint, the near-term market outlook remains distinctively bullish but faces immediate hurdles that will test the true conviction of spot buyers. Bitcoin successfully broke above its critical 7-day Simple Moving Average of US$63,476 and is currently working to solidify the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level near US$63,619 as a new baseline of technical support.

If the asset can decisively hold its ground above this pivotal US$63,619 line, the immediate path of least resistance points directly toward the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level located at US$65,006. Analysts must remain cautious, as 24-hour spot trading volume decreased by 21.33 per cent during this breakout, indicating a slight divergence between price appreciation and absolute spot market participation.

A failure to attract consistent spot buying volume at these elevated levels could lead to a rapid unwind of recent leveraged gains, potentially triggering a swift technical pullback toward the 50 per cent Fibonacci support level anchored at US$62,498.

Looking at the digital asset market as a collective whole, the aggregate valuation is currently testing a monumental technical resistance ceiling at US$2.25T, a level that represents the recent swing high for the total crypto market cap.

The immediate future of this macro-driven momentum now hinges entirely on the upcoming Producer Price Index data scheduled for release on July 15. If the incoming wholesale inflation figures confirm the disinflationary trajectory established by the Consumer Price Index print, the market will likely gain the fundamental backing needed to clear the US$2.25T barrier.

A successful technical breakout above this overhead supply zone would officially open the doors for a broader market expansion targeting the US$2.31T to US$2.38T extension zone. If the wholesale inflation data springs an unpleasant surprise on investors, the market may face a stern technical rejection at the current ceiling, resulting in a healthy period of consolidation or a temporary retreat down to the well-established US$2.14T to US$2.20T support band.

This rapid market recovery proves that while internal crypto mechanics like short liquidations and sector rotations dictate the immediate velocity of price moves, global macroeconomic liquidity remains the ultimate puppet master of valuation. The immediate trading bias for the market leans toward continued bullish momentum, but this optimistic outlook demands absolute validation beyond a single day of frantic short covering.

To transform this sharp relief rally into a legitimate, long-term market recovery, Bitcoin must comfortably sustain its position above the US$63,619 technical floor while simultaneously attracting consistent, positive institutional exchange-traded fund inflows in the coming days.

Investors must closely monitor both the immediate technical pivot points and the incoming wholesale inflation data, as the tension between overhead technical resistance and shifting global interest rate expectations will determine whether this impressive rally marks the beginning of a prolonged expansion or simply a temporary pause in a broader macroeconomic correction.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/is-the-us63619-fibonacci-level-strong-enough-to-prevent-a-total-unwind-back-down-to-us62498-20260715/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Why US$1.4 billion in Bitcoin longs could drag Bitcoin down to US$53,500?

Why US$1.4 billion in Bitcoin longs could drag Bitcoin down to US$53,500?

Bitcoin recently experienced a 1.94 per cent decline over a 24-hour period, settling at US$62,359.14. This downward movement underperformed a slightly weaker broader market. The mainstream narrative often attributes such drops to random market sentiment or fleeting panic. A deeper analysis reveals a precise combination of macroeconomic shocks and derivatives mechanics driving this specific price action. The current environment demands that we separate genuine structural shifts from the noise of leveraged speculation.

The primary catalyst for this recent selloff stems directly from escalating geopolitical friction between the United States and Iran. President Donald Trump declared the existing ceasefire with Iran completely over on July 8 and explicitly warned of potential military strikes. This rhetoric immediately sparked intense fears regarding severe oil supply disruptions across the Middle East. Crude prices spiked, triggering a massive risk-off shift across global financial markets. Traditional investors fled to safety, and Bitcoin traded exactly like a risk asset in this highly charged environment.

The digital currency sold off alongside equities as macro uncertainty dominated trader psychology. The market will continue suppressing risk appetite until traders price in a clear de-escalation in this specific geopolitical rhetoric. Global supply chains remain highly sensitive to Middle Eastern stability, and any hint of armed conflict instantly reprices risk assets across every major exchange and traditional brokerage.

A severe derivatives liquidation cascade significantly amplified the downward price movement beyond the initial geopolitical headline. The sharp initial drop triggered massive forced closures of leveraged positions across major exchanges. Data indicates that these platforms liquidated approximately US$71.24 million in Bitcoin positions within that 24-hour window. Long positions accounted for the vast majority of these closures. This forced selling created a vicious feedback loop that punished late buyers. Overleveraged bulls watched their positions evaporate while automatic market selling accelerated the decline.

I have always viewed excessive leverage in crypto as a form of gambling. The current liquidation event perfectly illustrates the danger of ignoring this fundamental truth and relying on borrowed capital. Exchanges automatically execute these market orders the moment margin requirements fail, completely removing human discretion from the equation and ensuring maximum pain for late participants.

This brings us to the widespread confusion surrounding liquidation heatmaps and the glaring US$1.4 billion in Bitcoin longs currently sitting in the danger zone. Many retail traders mistakenly believe this massive liquidity magnet guarantees a price visit to US$53,500. They fundamentally misunderstand the core mechanics of these charts. A liquidity magnet simply represents a zone where leveraged positions concentrate heavily. If the price moves toward this zone, forced liquidations create a cascade of selling that accelerates the move.

The market only reaches this destination if sufficient selling pressure exists. Without overwhelming downward momentum, the market leaves that magnet entirely untested. Smart traders utilise these maps to identify where volatility might explode rather than treating them as absolute price predictions. Price action ultimately depends on the balance between genuine spot demand and speculative leverage, not merely on the location of clustered margin positions.

We must evaluate both the bearish and bullish arguments objectively to understand the true market structure. The bearish case relies heavily on the crowded long positions sitting below the current price. Bitcoin is currently struggling to reclaim the US$64,000 level, and leverage continues to build across the ecosystem. Bears argue that a flush toward the largest liquidation cluster will inevitably reset the market and clear out the excess speculation. The bullish case highlights the strong spot buyers actively defending the US$60,000 to US$62,000 region.

Several analysts point out that the larger liquidity pockets actually sit much closer to the US$55,000 to US$57,000 range. Growing optimism around potential interest rate cuts provides a strong fundamental backdrop. Dip buyers have sufficient capital to absorb selling pressure before a deeper cascade begins. Institutional accumulation patterns suggest that major players view these dips as prime accumulation opportunities rather than reasons to panic and exit their positions.

Technical indicators provide further clarity on this battle between spot demand and leveraged positioning. The market recently rejected Bitcoin at the US$63,600 resistance level. The asset now tests the key Fibonacci 50 per cent retracement level situated at US$62,497.95. A large cluster of long positions sits dangerously close to the US$61,000 mark. A drop into this specific zone could easily trigger another violent liquidation wave.

Market participants must also closely watch the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes. These minutes have the power to sway rate-cut expectations and provide the next major macro catalyst. The current trend shows decidedly bearish characteristics in the very short term. The broader market is actively seeking a definitive directional signal to guide the next major leg. Central bank communications often dictate the broader liquidity environment, making these documents essential reading for anyone managing substantial digital asset portfolios.

The combination of a sudden macro shock and a derivatives flush has undeniably pushed Bitcoin lower and created substantial bearish pressure. The path forward hinges entirely on two critical factors. First, the market needs clear geopolitical developments to remove the macro overhang. Second, Bitcoin must demonstrate the ability to defend its major support levels. The immediate key watch centres on whether the asset can reclaim and hold above the US$62,500 level.

A successful defence here opens the door for a rebound toward US$63,600. A daily close below US$62,000 invites a much deeper correction toward the US$60,000 to US$59,000 support area. Real spot demand will ultimately overpower reckless leveraged positioning. Those who understand this distinction will navigate the current volatility with precision, while the gamblers will simply provide the liquidity for the next major directional move in this endlessly fascinating market.

 

Source: https://e27.co/why-us1-4-billion-in-bitcoin-longs-could-drag-bitcoin-down-to-us53500-20260709/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j