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Market insights: Ethereum challenges Bitcoin’s dominance, US dollar strengthens, gold dips as trade tariff fears ease

Market insights: Ethereum challenges Bitcoin’s dominance, US dollar strengthens, gold dips as trade tariff fears ease

From the US trade court’s decision to block President Trump’s global tariffs to Nvidia’s reassuring earnings report and the rising prominence of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, these developments are weaving a complex tapestry of risks and opportunities.

I’ll offer my perspective on how these factors are influencing global markets, currencies, commodities, and the burgeoning digital asset space. This analysis aims to provide a comprehensive view, grounded in facts and data, while steering clear of speculation or unsupported claims.

A trade ruling that shifts the risk calculus

The US trade court’s recent ruling to deem President Trump’s global tariffs illegal and block their implementation has sent ripples of relief through global markets. These tariffs, if enacted, would have affected trillions of dollars in international trade, casting a long shadow over supply chains, corporate profits, and consumer prices.

By halting this policy ahead of the critical July tariff timeline, the court has effectively dismantled a tactical risk that had been weighing heavily on investor sentiment. The immediate market response has been positive—Asian shares climbed in early trading, and US equity index futures are pointing to a robust 1.6 per cent higher opening for US stocks, signalling a collective sigh of relief among traders and analysts alike.

However, this victory for free trade advocates is tempered by significant uncertainty. The Trump administration has vowed to appeal the decision, setting the stage for a high-stakes legal showdown that could ultimately land before the Supreme Court. The implications of this potential escalation are staggering. A reversal of the trade court’s ruling could resurrect the tariffs, reigniting trade tensions with major partners like China, the European Union, and Canada.

Such an outcome would likely disrupt global commerce, exacerbate inflationary pressures, and erode the fragile confidence that markets have only just begun to regain. Conversely, if the Supreme Court upholds the current ruling, it could herald a period of relative stability, allowing businesses to plan with greater certainty and investors to focus on growth opportunities rather than defensive strategies.

It’s worth noting that the trade court’s decision doesn’t eliminate all tariff-related risks. Levies imposed under separate authorities—such as Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum and Section 301 tariffs targeting automobiles—remain in place. These measures continue to distort pricing and competitiveness in key industries, serving as a reminder that US trade policy remains a patchwork of protectionist impulses and legal challenges.

For now, though, the blocking of the global tariffs has tilted the risk sentiment in a more optimistic direction, offering markets a reprieve from one of the more ominous clouds on the horizon.

Nvidia’s earnings: A tech titan lifts spirits

While trade policy drama unfolds, Nvidia Corp. has provided a much-needed dose of optimism with its latest earnings report. CEO Jensen Huang’s confident assertion that the AI computing market is poised for “exponential growth”—even in the face of a slowdown in China—has soothed investor nerves and underscored the company’s resilience. Nvidia, a linchpin of the tech sector, reported a solid sales forecast that defied expectations of a China-driven slump, reinforcing its status as a market leader in semiconductors and artificial intelligence.

This performance is more than just a corporate success story; it’s a psychological anchor for a market grappling with uncertainty. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite may have dipped 0.5 per cent overnight, alongside the S&P 500 and Dow Jones (both down 0.6 per cent), but Nvidia’s results have injected a forward-looking positivity that transcends those short-term losses. Huang’s emphasis on AI’s growth potential taps into a broader narrative of technological innovation as a driver of economic progress, offering a counterweight to the geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds buffeting other sectors.

That said, Nvidia’s triumph doesn’t erase the broader vulnerabilities within the tech industry. Supply chain bottlenecks, rising input costs, and the ever-present spectre of US-China tensions could still derail the sector’s momentum. China remains a critical market for Nvidia, and any escalation in trade disputes—or new restrictions on technology transfers—could complicate its growth trajectory.

For now, though, the company’s earnings have acted as a catalyst for improved risk sentiment, bolstering confidence in tech stocks and, by extension, the wider market.

Currencies and commodities: A tale of diverging signals

The shifting risk landscape has left its mark on currency and commodity markets, revealing a nuanced interplay of confidence and caution. The US dollar strengthened by 0.4 per cent, reflecting its enduring appeal as a safe-haven asset even as risk sentiment improves.

This appreciation has come at the expense of the yen, which weakened by 0.8 per cent, as investors pivot away from traditional safe-haven currencies in favour of riskier assets. The dollar’s resilience suggests that, despite the positive headlines, some market participants remain wary of unresolved risks—like the tariff appeal or geopolitical flare-ups.

In commodities, gold prices slipped 0.4 per cent to just below US$3,300 per ounce, a clear sign that haven demand is waning as investors feel less need for a defensive hedge. This decline aligns with the surge in risk appetite following the trade court ruling and Nvidia’s earnings, as capital flows back into equities and other growth-oriented investments.

Meanwhile, Brent crude oil tells a different story, rising 1.3 per cent to hover around US$65 per barrel. The tariff ruling has bolstered expectations of stable global demand, supporting oil prices even as other commodities soften.

These movements paint a picture of a market in transition—optimistic about the near term but not fully convinced that all risks have dissipated. The divergence between gold and oil highlights the uneven nature of this sentiment shift, with energy markets buoyed by trade relief and precious metals reflecting a cautious retreat from panic mode.

As the tariff appeal process unfolds, these markets will remain sensitive barometers of investor confidence, reacting swiftly to any hints of escalation or resolution.

The crypto conundrum: Bitcoin and Ethereum take centre stage

Perhaps the most intriguing subplot in this financial narrative is the evolving role of cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, against the backdrop of geopolitical and market developments. US Vice President JD Vance has thrust Bitcoin into the spotlight with his remarks at the Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas, arguing that China’s hostility toward the cryptocurrency should spur the US to embrace it as a strategic asset.

Citing China’s ban on crypto trading and mining since 2021, Vance framed Bitcoin as a potential counterweight to Beijing’s influence in the digital economy, echoing President Trump’s March executive order establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve with government-held tokens.

This rhetoric marks a striking shift in how cryptocurrencies are perceived—not just as speculative investments but as tools of national strategy. Trump’s pro-crypto stance, cultivated during his campaign with promises to be a “crypto president,” has already fuelled a resurgence in digital assets.

Bitcoin’s market cap recently crossed US$2 trillion, a milestone that underscores its growing mainstream acceptance. Yet, as Vance suggests, its strategic value may lie less in its price and more in its ability to position the US as a leader in a domain where China has ceded ground.

Ethereum, meanwhile, is carving out its own narrative, buoyed by predictions that it could outpace Bitcoin as institutional investors rotate into assets with staking yields. Trading above US$2,600 after a 40 per cent rally in May—spurred by the successful Pectra upgrade—Ethereum has regained prominence, flipping the ETH/BTC pair upward by more than 30 per cent since November 2022.

Analysts argue that Bitcoin’s dominance may be nearing a ceiling, as its massive market cap introduces diminishing returns that could cap its upside potential. Ethereum bulls, however, must defend key technical levels—like the rising trendline and 50-period EMA—to sustain this momentum and cement its edge.

The interplay between these two cryptocurrencies reflects broader market dynamics. Bitcoin’s ascent has been turbocharged by institutional inflows, with firms like Trump Media and Strive eyeing Bitcoin treasury strategies inspired by earlier adopters.

Yet, Ethereum’s appeal to large investors—thanks to its staking rewards in a low-yield world—positions it as a potential dark horse. Whether this sparks a new “altseason” remains uncertain, but the competition between Bitcoin and Ethereum underscores the crypto market’s maturation and its increasing entanglement with traditional finance.

Piecing it all together

Stepping back, the global financial system appears to be at a pivotal juncture, balancing newfound optimism with persistent uncertainties. The trade court’s tariff ruling and Nvidia’s earnings have undeniably improved risk sentiment, as evidenced by rising equity futures and a softening of haven assets like gold.

Yet, the looming appeal of the tariff decision injects a dose of unpredictability that could upend this fragile equilibrium. Similarly, while cryptocurrencies offer tantalising opportunities—strategic for Bitcoin, yield-driven for Ethereum—their volatility and regulatory unknowns temper their promise.

For investors, this environment demands a delicate dance between seizing growth prospects and guarding against potential shocks. The tech sector, buoyed by Nvidia, offers a compelling case for optimism, but its reliance on global supply chains leaves it exposed to trade disruptions.

Currencies and commodities, meanwhile, signal a market that’s cautiously shedding its defensive posture without fully committing to a risk-on stance. And in the crypto realm, the US’s strategic pivot could redefine the digital asset landscape, though success hinges on navigating a minefield of risks.

As I see it, the weeks and months ahead will hinge on how these threads resolve. A Supreme Court ruling on tariffs could either cement the current rally or plunge markets back into turmoil. Nvidia’s ability to sustain its AI-driven momentum will test the tech sector’s resilience, while the crypto market’s fate may rest on regulatory clarity and institutional adoption.

For now, the global risk sentiment is brighter than it was, but it’s a brightness tinged with shadows—shadows that demand vigilance, critical thinking, and a willingness to adapt. In this complex, interconnected world, the only certainty is that the story is far from over.

 

Source: https://e27.co/market-insights-ethereum-challenges-bitcoins-dominance-us-dollar-strengthens-gold-dips-as-trade-tariff-fears-ease-20250529/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Stocks fall, Bitcoin rises: What’s driving the market divide?

Stocks fall, Bitcoin rises: What’s driving the market divide?

The overnight markets have been anything but calm lately, with major US benchmarks finishing lower, though they managed to recover somewhat from their steepest declines. The Russell 2000 dropped 3.47 per cent, the S&P 500 fell 2.61 per cent, the Nasdaq declined 2.47 per cent, and the Dow also shed 2.47 per cent over the past week.

It’s a rough picture, but the fact that these indices clawed back from their worst levels suggests a flicker of resilience—or perhaps just a pause before the next storm. Growth-related sectors, the engines of recent market optimism, were broadly lower, and the so-called Mag-7 stocks—Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla—all took a hit.

Apple, in particular, saw a sharp 3.0 per cent drop, a decline pinned squarely on tariff concerns tied to President Trump’s latest trade rhetoric. Investors, however, seem to be growing numb to his tariff announcements, increasingly convinced that these threats are more noise than substance, likely to fade away as quickly as they flare up.

But that doesn’t mean the market is shrugging off all the turbulence. Big investors are quietly shifting gears, diversifying their bond portfolios and looking beyond US borders for opportunities. Trump’s trade war and the ballooning US deficits are making them jittery, and for good reason. Bond market volatility is spiking, a loud warning to governments that borrowing money isn’t going to come cheap anymore. The widening risk premiums on lower-rated junk bonds are another red flag, hinting at deeper cracks in the US economy.

Meanwhile, major US banks like JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo are mulling a bold move: teaming up to launch a joint stablecoin. It’s a bid to speed up transactions and fend off the crypto industry’s growing threat, with talks involving co-owned entities like Early Warning Services (behind Zelle) and the Clearing House. The financial world, it seems, is bracing for a seismic shift.

Growth sectors and tariff fears: The Apple effect

Zooming in on those growth sectors, the picture gets murkier. The Mag-7 stocks, long the poster children of market strength, stumbled in unison. Apple’s 3.0 per cent slide stands out, not just for its size but for what’s driving it: Trump’s tariff threats, particularly a proposed 25 per cent levy on iPhones unless their manufacturing shifts back to US soil.

It’s a direct hit to a company that’s built its empire on a global supply chain, and it’s rattling investors. Yet there’s a growing sense that Trump’s bark might be worse than his bite. Market players are starting to tune out his tariff proclamations, betting that these policies won’t stick—or at least won’t hit as hard as advertised.

That skepticism hasn’t stopped the unease from spreading, though. Big investors are hedging their bets, pouring money into bond markets outside the US as a buffer against Trump’s trade wars and the fiscal mess piling up in Washington.

The bond market itself is flashing warning signs. Volatility is up, signalling that debt financing costs are on the rise—a headache for governments already stretched thin. And those widening risk premiums on junk bonds? They’re not just a technical blip; they could be an early distress signal about the US economy’s health. It’s a tense moment for growth sectors, caught between innovation’s promise and the grinding uncertainty of trade policy.

Central banks: Steady hands in a shaky world

Central banks, meanwhile, are trying to keep their footing amid the chaos. In the US, a Supreme Court order suggests the Federal Reserve might be insulated from Trump’s attempts to meddle with independent agencies, a rare bit of good news for those hoping for stability.

Across the Pacific, China’s lowering deposit rate ceilings to shield bank profits, a pragmatic move to keep its financial system humming. Japan’s central bank governor, Kazuo Ueda, is playing it cool, offering no hints of intervention even as yields on super-long-dated securities hit all-time highs.

And in Europe, ECB official Yannis Stournaras is sketching out a cautious plan: a rate cut in June, followed by a pause to see how the dust settles. These institutions are navigating uncharted waters, balancing domestic pressures with the global fallout from Trump’s policies.

Tariffs: Trump’s high-stakes gamble

Speaking of Trump, his tariff threats are escalating into a full-blown global standoff. He’s declared negotiations with the European Union a dead end, threatening a jaw-dropping 50 per cent tariff on EU goods starting June 1. That’s no small potatoes—trade with the EU accounted for about 4.9 per cent of US GDP in 2024, with pharmaceuticals, cars, and machinery leading the charge.

Then there’s the iPhone gambit: a 25 per cent tariff unless Apple brings manufacturing home. It’s a bold play, but the EU isn’t blinking. They’ve made it clear they won’t budge on VAT, food safety standards, or regulations governing digital services and social media. This deadlock crushed any lingering hope that Trump’s trade wars would wind down.

Japan’s taking a different tack, signaling it’s ready to strike a tariff deal with the US by June, perhaps sensing an opportunity to dodge the worst. Meanwhile, US importers are reeling from a record US$16.5 billion tariff bill for April alone, a staggering cost rippling through supply chains.

Southeast Asian nations are feeling the squeeze too, caught in the crossfire of the US-China trade war and pressured to pick a side. It’s a high-stakes game of chicken, and the global economy is holding its breath.

Economic pulse: Bright spots and warning signs

Amid all this, economic indicators are a mixed bag. The UK’s retail sales surged 1.2 per cent in April, defying forecasts and marking four straight months of gains, thanks to some unusually good weather. Consumer confidence there ticked up to -20 in May, better than the expected -22 and a leap from -25 a month earlier, though inflation worries haven’t gone away.

Germany’s GDP surprised with a 0.4 per cent rise in Q1, fuelled by exporters rushing shipments ahead of US tariffs. Japan, though, is grappling with core inflation spiking to 3.5 per cent in April, driven by sky-high rice and energy costs—a reminder that not all growth is painless.

Back in the US, Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” is hitting snags in the Senate, and even if it passes, it might boomerang on Republicans. The combo of deep tax cuts and soaring debt could turn off voters and spook investors, undermining the very gains Trump’s touting. It’s a precarious moment, with economic signals flashing both opportunity and peril.

Bitcoin’s rise: A political and economic wildcard

Then there’s Bitcoin, quietly stealing the spotlight. Support for the cryptocurrency is surging among US policymakers, with 59 per cent of Senators and 66 per cent of House Representatives backing Bitcoin-friendly policies. What started as a niche interest among libertarian and tech-forward lawmakers has gone mainstream, cutting across party lines.

They’re waking up to Bitcoin’s potential—not just as a financial disruptor, but as a tool for economic freedom and a hedge against a wobbly US Treasury market. With bond yields climbing amid fears of fiscal instability and inflation, Bitcoin’s hitting new highs—US$109,507 as of late—defying the gloom gripping traditional markets.

Pakistan’s jumping on the bandwagon too, allocating 2,000 megawatts of surplus electricity to power Bitcoin mining and AI data centers. It’s a savvy move by a country wrestling with high tariffs and excess energy capacity, especially as solar power gains traction. Spearheaded by the Pakistan Crypto Council, this initiative aims to cash in on idle resources, create tech jobs, and lure foreign investment. It’s a glimpse of how nations might adapt to a digital-first future, even as the old economic order frays.

Tying it all together: A fragile balance

So where does this leave us? The overnight markets are a jittery mess, with US benchmarks down but not out, growth sectors wobbling, and investors second-guessing Trump’s tariff bluster. Bond markets are screaming caution, central banks are treading carefully, and global trade is a tangle of threats and counter-moves.

Economic data offers some hope—UK retail, German exports—but the risks are piling up, from Japan’s inflation to America’s debt woes. And in the midst of it all, Bitcoin’s carving out a new role, embraced by Washington and innovated on by countries like Pakistan.

I see a world teetering on the edge—between chaos and opportunity, tradition and transformation. Trump’s tariffs might fizzle or ignite a firestorm; Bitcoin could falter or redefine finance. What’s certain is that adaptability will be the name of the game. For investors, policymakers, and everyday folks, the challenge is clear: navigate the storm, eyes wide open, ready for whatever comes next.

 

Source: https://e27.co/stocks-fall-bitcoin-rises-whats-driving-the-market-divide-20250526/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Fed’s caution vs market optimism: What’s the real story? Could Bitcoin to US$120K be it?

Fed’s caution vs market optimism: What’s the real story? Could Bitcoin to US$120K be it?

I reflect on the whirlwind of economic and market developments from last week and cast an eye toward what’s coming, and it’s clear we’re in a fascinating moment. The financial world feels like it’s teetering on the edge of something big—optimism tempered by uncertainty, bold moves shadowed by lingering risks.

Let’s dive into what happened last week, what it means, and what we might expect in the days ahead, weaving together the threads of global trade, monetary policy, housing, and even the wild ride of Bitcoin. This is my take, grounded in the facts and data at hand.

Last week: A rally fuelled by trade relief and resilience

Last week kicked off with a bang. Markets opened with a decisive gap above the 200-day moving average—a technical signal that traders love to see, often interpreted as a sign of sustained bullish momentum. The catalyst? A breakthrough in the US-China trade saga. After months of tension, the two economic giants agreed to a 90-day suspension of most tariffs.

US duties on Chinese goods dropped from a staggering 145 per cent to a more manageable 30 per cent, while Chinese tariffs on US imports fell from 125 per cent to 10 per cent, with some categories excluded. This wasn’t a full resolution—those exclusions hint at sticking points yet to be ironed out—but it was a lifeline for markets that trade war fears had battered. Investors exhaled, and you could almost feel the relief rippling through Wall Street.

The numbers back this up. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq logged their strongest single-day gains since early April, and the Dow surged over 1,100 points on Monday alone. By Friday, major indexes were trading within five per cent of their all-time highs. That’s no small feat when you consider the headwinds of the past year—supply chain disruptions, inflation spikes, and geopolitical uncertainty. The tariff truce, announced after negotiations in Geneva, seemed to flip a switch, turning fear into opportunity.

Tuesday added fuel to the fire. A cooler-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) print hit the wires, suggesting that inflation might not be the runaway train some had feared. Lower inflation readings ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to slam the brakes with aggressive rate hikes, and that’s music to investors’ ears. The rally accelerated, with stocks climbing higher as the week progressed. It wasn’t all smooth sailing, though.

Later in the week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell threw a bit of cold water on the party. His tone was neutral at best, hawkish at worst, as he pointed to persistent supply shocks and hinted at a higher long-run rate path. In plain English, he’s saying the Fed might need to keep rates elevated longer to tame inflation and stabilise the economy. That could’ve rattled markets, but it didn’t. Risk appetite held firm, which tells me investors were more focused on the trade win than the Fed’s cautious outlook. It’s a testament to the momentum at play—bullish sentiment was too strong to be derailed.

Looking ahead: Housing, Fed signals, and global pulse points

Now, let’s shift gears and look forward. The coming week feels like a crossroads. We’ve got a slew of data and events that could either cement this bullish run or throw a wrench into it. One area I’m particularly curious about is housing.

Earnings from Home Depot and Lowe’s, coupled with April home sales data, are due out soon, and they’ll be a litmus test for the real estate market. Housing is a huge piece of the economic puzzle—when it’s strong, it signals consumer confidence and spending power; when it’s weak, it can drag everything else down. Interest rates have been a rollercoaster, and buyers have been skittish.

If these reports show resilience—say, steady sales or upbeat guidance from the home improvement giants—it could bolster the case that the economy’s on solid footing. But if they disappoint, it might spark worries about a slowdown. Traders will be watching closely, and so will I.

The Federal Reserve isn’t stepping out of the spotlight either. We’ve got a packed lineup of Fed speakers this week, and their words could move markets. Powell’s recent comments already stirred the pot, and now his colleagues have a chance to elaborate—or pivot.

Then there’s Thursday’s flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data, which gives a snapshot of business activity. Strong PMIs could reinforce the bullish vibe; weak ones might signal trouble ahead. These events can reset expectations; in a market, this jittery is no small thing. We’ll see some volatility as investors parse every word and number.

Monday’s spotlight: A glimmer of economic hope?

Let’s zoom in on Monday, May 19, 2025. At 14:00 GMT, April’s US Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) drops. This is one of those forward-looking indicators that economists love—it’s designed to predict where the economy’s headed over the next six to twelve months. It fell by 0.7 per cent in March, which wasn’t great news; a decline signals contraction. The forecast for April is a smaller drop of 0.2 per cent. That’s still negative, but the narrower slide caught my eye.

Could it mean the pace of economic deceleration is slowing? Maybe. If the data comes in as expected—or better—it might suggest recessionary pressures are easing. I think stronger corporate earnings or loosening credit conditions could be at play here, giving businesses and consumers more breathing room. The LEI’s still in the red, so we’re not out of the woods, but a less-bad number could lift spirits. I’ll be checking that release at 2:00 PM GMT with interest.

On the earnings front, we’ve got Diageo and Trip.com reporting. Diageo’s a heavyweight in the alcoholic beverages world, and its results could tell us how consumers are spending on discretionary items like a bottle of Johnnie Walker. Trip.com, a big name in China’s online travel scene, might shed light on whether travel demand is holding up amid economic shifts. These aren’t make-or-break for the broader market, but they’re pieces of the puzzle—clues about how people feel and spend.

Tuesday’s global view: Rates, inflation, and trade

Tuesday, May 20, brings a trio of international events worth watching. First up, at 04:30 GMT, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its interest rate decision. The current rate sits at 4.1 per cent, but the buzz is they’ll cut it to 3.85 per cent. That’s a notable shift. Australia’s economy has been grappling with slowing growth, weaker consumer spending, and cooling inflation.

Recent data showing a softening labor market and sluggish wage growth backs this up—households are stretched, and the RBA might see a rate cut as a way to juice demand and fend off a deeper slump. If they go through with it, it could ripple beyond Australia, maybe nudging other central banks to rethink their own stances. Global markets will take note.

Later, at 12:30 GMT, Canada’s Inflation Rate Year-over-Year hits the docket. Inflation’s been a hot topic everywhere, and this number will tell us if Canada’s price pressures are easing or digging in. A lower reading could ease fears of aggressive rate hikes from the Bank of Canada, while a stubborn one might stoke them.

Then, at 23:50 GMT, Japan’s Balance of Trade data rolls out. Japan is a trade powerhouse, and this shows how its exports and imports are stacking up. With global supply chains still shaky, a surplus could signal resilience; a deficit might hint at trouble. Together, these data points paint a picture of the world economy—interconnected and complex.

Bitcoin’s big moment: US$120K in sight?

Now, let’s talk Bitcoin, because it’s impossible to ignore. On May 18, 2025, it was trading at US$103,895, with a market cap of US$2.064 trillion. That’s a colossal figure, hovering near all-time highs, bouncing between US$102,771 and US$104,002 in a tight consolidation range.

As I write this, it’s ticked up to US$104,826. The 24-hour trading volume—US$19.865 billion—shows plenty of action. What’s driving it? Bitcoin’s got this uncanny knack for thriving whether markets are in risk-on or risk-off mode, a point Bitcoin Suisse has flagged. Its Sharpe ratio, a measure of risk-adjusted returns, sits at 1.72, second only to gold. That’s a big deal—it’s saying Bitcoin’s maturing, delivering solid gains without wild swings.

The market’s buyer-heavy right now, with institutional players and retail investors piling in. That could tighten supply and push prices higher. I’m starting to think the odds of Bitcoin cracking US$120,000 in May are climbing. And it’s not just market dynamics—there’s news fuelling this too.

Ukraine is planning a National Bitcoin Reserve, with lawmaker Yaroslav Zhelezniak finalising the legislation. That’s a bold move, mirroring US efforts to do the same, and it screams adoption. Then there’s American Bitcoin, the Trump family’s crypto venture, announcing plans to go public via a Nasdaq merger. Love them or not, the Trumps bring attention, and this could legitimise crypto further. If these dominoes fall right, we might see a rally that takes Bitcoin to new heights. 

My take: Optimism with eyes wide open

So, where does this leave us? Last week was a shot in the arm for markets—trade relief sparked a rally that held up against Fed hawkishness. The bullish momentum feels real, with indexes knocking on the door of record highs.

Looking ahead, I’m cautiously optimistic. Housing data and Fed signals will be key—if they hold steady, this run could keep going. The LEI’s smaller drop and the RBA’s potential rate cut suggest economies adapt, not collapse. And Bitcoin? It’s a wild card that might steal the show.

But I’m not blind to the risks. Powell’s warnings about supply shocks and rates aren’t idle chatter, and a stumble in housing or PMIs could shake things up. For now, though, the data’s tilting positive, and the vibe is upbeat.

I’ll be watching Monday’s LEI, Tuesday’s global releases, and Bitcoin’s next move like a hawk—because in this market, every moment counts. What do you think—am I onto something, or is there a curveball I’m missing? Let’s keep the conversation going.

I must emphasise again that Bitcoin at US$120,000 is just my humble prediction.

 

Source: https://e27.co/feds-caution-vs-market-optimism-whats-the-real-story-could-bitcoin-to-us120k-be-it-20250519/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j