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Crypto and global finance: A dance of optimism, politics, and market volatility

Crypto and global finance: A dance of optimism, politics, and market volatility

Key Points:

– US markets show caution with MSCI US index up just 0.01%, while US Treasury yields at 4.48% after a fifth week of decline, influenced by weaker retail sales.
– Trump’s tariff announcement adds complexity with unclear impacts, prompting EU retaliation threats, yet hopes for negotiation to avoid trade war.
– Japan’s economy remains strong, expanding for three quarters, potentially leading to more rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, affecting global investments.
– Currency and commodity markets react; US Dollar down 0.6%, Gold retreats 1.6%, and Brent crude falls 0.4% amid US geopolitical moves in Ukraine.
– HSCEI surges in Asia, up 4.1% to a two-year high, fueled by tech optimism from China’s AI advancements, signaling growth in tech sectors.
– Crypto politics spotlight after Argentina’s President Milei’s crypto endorsement leads to controversy and potential impeachment, highlighting risks in politically linked cryptocurrencies.

 

My observations on February 17, 2025: The global financial scene is currently walking a tightrope between cautious optimism and palpable tension, reflected in the varied outcomes of US stock markets and a clear decline in US. Treasury yields. This situation has developed amidst crucial economic data and political statements that could steer market trends in the near future.

Starting with the US markets, the MSCI US index barely moved, registering just a +0.01 per cent increase, reflecting a tentative market sentiment. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell by 2 basis points to end the week at 4.48per cent, marking its fifth consecutive weekly decline, a trend not seen since 2021.

This decline occurred amidst a stark miss in US retail sales, which dropped by 0.9 per cent against expectations of a mere 0.1 per cent decrease. This drop to the lowest level in nearly two years suggests that consumers might have preemptively increased their spending in the last quarter of the previous year, possibly in anticipation of price hikes due to looming tariffs.

The political arena added another layer of complexity with President Trump’s announcement regarding new automobile tariffs set for April 2. The lack of specifics on these tariffs has left markets in suspense, with investors and businesses alike trying to forecast the potential impact on both domestic and global trade dynamics. The response from the European Union was swift, with German Chancellor Scholz indicating a readiness to retaliate against any US tariffs, yet expressing a preference for negotiation to avoid escalating into a full-blown trade war.

Shifting focus to Asia, Japan’s economy showed resilience, expanding for the third consecutive quarter, surpassing expectations. This performance has bolstered expectations that the Bank of Japan might continue its trajectory towards further rate hikes, a move that could influence global investment flows given Japan’s significant role in the world economy.

The currency markets reflected this global uncertainty with the US Dollar Index declining by 0.6 per cent, indicating a softening of the dollar against other major currencies. Gold, often seen as a safe-haven asset, experienced a retreat of 1.6 per cent, perhaps suggesting a nuanced investor response to the current economic indicators and geopolitical developments.

In the oil sector, Brent crude saw a 0.4 per cent decline, influenced by anticipated increases in oil supply from Iraq and Russia, with geopolitical manoeuvres by the US aimed at resolving the conflict in Ukraine potentially impacting future oil prices.

In stock markets, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) surged by 4.1 per cent, closing above 8,300, hitting a two-year high driven by optimism in tech stocks following China’s advancements in generative AI. This has implications not only for tech sectors but also for investor sentiment towards emerging technologies and their potential to drive economic growth.

However, amidst these economic and market movements, a peculiar narrative involving cryptocurrency and politics has emerged, particularly with politicians inadvertently or directly linked to what are colloquially known as “rugpulls” or scams in the crypto space. The case of Argentina’s President Javier Milei recommending a little-known cryptocurrency, US$LIBRE, which saw a dramatic rise and then a precipitous fall, has sparked controversy. This incident has led to discussions about impeachment by the opposition, highlighting the perilous intersection of political influence and cryptocurrency markets.

Further investigation by crypto analysts like Bubblemaps has revealed potential connections between the creators of US$LIBRE and other meme coins, including one associated with the US First Lady, Melania Trump, under the ticker #MELANIA. This network of seemingly related cryptocurrencies raises questions about the integrity of these ventures, suggesting a coordinated effort to capitalise on political figures’ names for financial gain. The cautionary advice from these events is clear: the crypto market, especially around meme coins or those endorsed by public figures without substantial backing, remains fraught with risks of manipulation and sudden value drops.

Adding to the crypto narrative, the withdrawal of over US$2.45 billion worth of Ethereum from exchanges within a short span indicates a strong accumulation trend among investors, possibly signalling confidence in Ethereum’s long-term value or a strategic move to reduce supply on trading platforms, which could theoretically lead to price increases due to reduced sell pressure.

In conclusion, the current global financial environment is characterised by a mix of economic data interpretation, political announcements, and the volatile yet intriguing world of cryptocurrencies. Investors are navigating through this landscape with caution, balancing between hopeful economic signals from regions like Japan and the potential disruptions from trade policies and crypto market manipulations.

The advice, particularly in the realm of cryptocurrencies linked to political figures, remains to steer clear of investments that lack solid fundamentals or where the potential for manipulation seems high. This complex interplay of economic data, policy announcements, and emerging digital asset trends underscores the need for thorough research and a cautious investment strategy in these uncertain times.

 

Source: https://e27.co/crypto-and-global-finance-a-dance-of-optimism-politics-and-market-volatility-20250217/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Market wrap: Inflation surprises, geopolitical shifts, and crypto’s resilience amid uncertainty

Market wrap: Inflation surprises, geopolitical shifts, and crypto’s resilience amid uncertainty

5 key points:

– US January inflation at 3.3% shocked markets, influencing Fed policy expectations.
– Trump’s move to negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war impacts markets.
– Bond yields surged with the 10-year at 4.621%, reflecting hawkish Fed expectations.
– Equities, especially tech, showed resilience despite inflation fears and rate hike concerns.
– Cryptocurrencies rebounded, supported by geopolitical news and institutional interest from Goldman Sachs.

The global financial markets have been a whirlwind of volatility this week, driven by a hotter-than-expected US inflation report for January, shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy, and unexpected geopolitical developments. As a journalist with a front-row seat to these unfolding events, I find myself reflecting on the broader implications for investors, policymakers, and the global economy.

The US core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January came in at 3.3 per cent year-over-year, surpassing forecasts of 3.1 per cent and inching up from the prior reading of 3.2 per cent. This stubborn inflationary pressure has sent ripples through bond markets, equities, and even the nascent crypto space, while President Donald Trump’s surprising move to negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war adds another layer of complexity.

In this article, I’ll unpack these developments, explore their interconnected impacts, and offer my perspective on where we might be headed next.

Let’s start with the inflation data, which has dominated headlines and reshaped market sentiment. The January core CPI print of 3.3 per cent was a stark reminder that inflation, despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive efforts, remains a persistent challenge. Economists and markets had anticipated a slight cooling to 3.1 per cent, but the unexpected uptick—driven in part by soaring egg prices (up 15.2 per cent in a month), rising rents, and higher gas and food costs—has forced a recalibration.

Posts on X captured the immediate reaction, with many users noting the surprise and speculating on the Federal Reserve’s next moves. One post highlighted that core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, has now remained above 3 per cent for 45 consecutive months, underscoring the stickiness of underlying inflation. This data, confirmed by reports from Reuters and other outlets, has significant implications for monetary policy.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in his second Congressional testimony this week, reiterated the Fed’s commitment to taming inflation but acknowledged that “more work” is needed. His words, while measured, did little to soothe markets, as traders pushed back expectations for the next rate cut from September to December. This shift, reflected in futures markets, signals a growing consensus that the Fed will maintain higher interest rates for longer, a scenario that could weigh on economic growth and risk assets.

The bond market’s reaction was swift and decisive. US Treasuries tumbled across the curve, with the 10-year yield rising 8.6 basis points to 4.621 per cent and the 2-year yield climbing 7.2 basis points to 4.355 per cent. The widening of the 2-year and 10-year yield spread by 2.2 basis points to 27.4 basis points suggests that investors are pricing in a more hawkish Fed stance in the near term, with longer-term yields reflecting concerns about sustained inflation. For bond investors, this is a challenging environment. Higher yields, while attractive for new buyers, mean mark-to-market losses for those holding existing Treasuries.

From my perspective, this dynamic underscores the delicate balancing act the Fed faces: tightening too aggressively risks tipping the economy into recession, but easing prematurely could allow inflation to spiral further. Powell’s testimony, while reaffirming the Fed’s resolve, left open questions about the pace and magnitude of future rate hikes, leaving markets in a state of heightened uncertainty.

Equities, predictably, felt the heat. US stocks initially fell sharply after the inflation data, with the MSCI US index ending the day down 0.3 per cent. The energy sector was the biggest underperformer, dropping 2.8 per cent, likely due to a combination of profit-taking and concerns about demand in a higher-rate environment.

However, tech buyers stepped in later in the session, helping to pare losses. This resilience in tech, despite rising yields, is noteworthy. It suggests that investors still see value in growth stocks, particularly in sectors like technology, which have been buoyed by strong earnings and innovation.

Yet, the broader market remains vulnerable. The S&P 500’s correlation with other risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, highlights the interconnectedness of today’s markets. Posts on X noted this linkage, with users pointing out that altcoins like Ethereum, XRP, and DOGE saw slight gains alongside the S&P 500, underscoring crypto’s sensitivity to equity market movements. For investors, this correlation is a double-edged sword: it amplifies gains during bullish periods but exacerbates losses when sentiment turns sour.

Speaking of cryptocurrencies, the crypto market has shown surprising resilience amid this week’s turbulence. Bitcoin and other major altcoins posted modest gains on Wednesday, a recovery that coincided with President Trump’s unexpected announcement of phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war.

This development, reported by Bloomberg, marks a shift from previous US policy and has eased concerns about disruptions to Russian crude supplies. Brent crude, which fell 2.3 per cent to US$75.18 per barrel after US crude inventories rose, reflects this easing of geopolitical risk. For the crypto market, Trump’s move is a potential tailwind. Bitcoin, often seen as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty, benefited from the news, with prices ticking higher. Ethereum, XRP, and DOGE followed suit, though gains were modest.

From my perspective, this recovery is encouraging, but it’s tempered by the broader macro environment. The stronger-than-expected US inflation data earlier in the week had initially pressured crypto prices, as higher rates typically weigh on speculative assets. Yet, the crypto market’s ability to rebound suggests that investor appetite for digital assets remains strong, particularly in light of institutional adoption.

On that note, Goldman Sachs’ latest filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, published on February 12, 2025, caught my attention. The investment bank reported holding US$2.05 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs as of the end of 2024, a significant increase from earlier quarters.

This move, detailed in reports from Cointelegraph and Decrypt, reflects a broader trend of institutional interest in cryptocurrencies. Goldman Sachs’ investments, split between BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, and Ethereum-focused ETFs, signal a growing acceptance of digital assets on Wall Street.

However, it’s worth noting that Goldman Sachs has historically been critical of cryptocurrencies, with executives like Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani comparing the recent crypto enthusiasm to the tulip mania of the 1600s. This dichotomy—between the bank’s public skepticism and its substantial investments—raises questions. Is Goldman Sachs hedging its bets, or is it simply responding to client demand?

From my perspective, this tension highlights the evolving nature of the crypto market. Institutional adoption, fueled by a more favorable regulatory environment under the Trump administration, is driving growth, but skepticism persists. For retail investors, Goldman Sachs’ involvement is a double-edged sword: it validates the asset class but also introduces new risks, as institutional flows can amplify volatility.

Shifting focus to Asia, the latest economic data from India adds another layer of complexity to the global picture. Softer-than-expected industrial output and inflation figures have raised concerns that India, one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies, may be entering a softer growth patch.

Asian equity indices were mixed in early trading, reflecting uncertainty about the region’s trajectory. For investors, this is a reminder that global markets are interconnected, and weakness in one region can spill over into others.

From my perspective, India’s challenges underscore the uneven nature of the global recovery. While the US grapples with inflation, emerging markets like India face growth headwinds, creating a divergent policy landscape. For central banks, this divergence complicates coordination efforts, as rate hikes in the US could exacerbate capital outflows from emerging markets.

Looking ahead, the interplay between inflation, monetary policy, geopolitics, and risk assets will continue to shape markets. The US inflation data has dashed hopes for rate cuts in 2025, with traders now pricing in a more hawkish Fed stance. President Trump’s move to negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war is a potential de-escalation, but its impact on energy markets and global risk sentiment remains uncertain. The crypto market, buoyed by institutional adoption and geopolitical developments, is showing resilience, but it’s not immune to macro pressures.

For investors, navigating this landscape requires a careful balance of caution and opportunism. From my perspective, the key takeaway is that uncertainty is the new normal. Inflation, while stubborn, is not insurmountable, but it will require sustained policy efforts. Geopolitical risks, while easing in some areas, remain a wildcard.

And cryptocurrencies, while volatile, are increasingly part of the mainstream financial system. As we move forward, staying informed, critically examining narratives, and remaining adaptable will be essential. The markets, as always, will test our resolve, but they also offer opportunities for those willing to navigate the complexity.

 

Source: https://e27.co/market-wrap-inflation-surprises-geopolitical-shifts-and-cryptos-resilience-amid-uncertainty-20250213/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The new norm: Stabilising global risk sentiment in a volatile market

The new norm: Stabilising global risk sentiment in a volatile market

February 6, 2025: We’ve recently witnessed a stabilisation of risk sentiment following a tumultuous week marked by volatile price action. Despite the tech sector’s underwhelming earnings, the MSCI US index managed to eke out a modest gain of 0.4 per cent, buoyed by a broader rally across other sectors. This resilience in the face of disappointing tech earnings speaks volumes about the current market dynamics, where diversification across sectors seems to be paying dividends.

The week’s economic data provided a mixed bag of signals. The US ISM services data, which fell unexpectedly to 52.8 against a consensus forecast of 54.1, sent ripples through the financial markets. This decline in service sector activity led to a significant drop in US Treasury (UST) yields, with the 2-year yield softening by three basis points to 4.19 per cent and the 10-year yield dropping eight basis points to 4.42 per cent.

This adjustment in yields reflects a cautious optimism among investors, perhaps taking some comfort in the narrowing of the 10s2s yield curve, which tightened by another 6 basis points to 23 basis points. This movement in the yield curve suggests that while the market anticipates no immediate rate hikes, the long-term outlook might be less hawkish than previously thought.

Amidst this backdrop, the voices from the Federal Reserve, including Jefferson, Barkin, and Goolsbee, maintained a steady drumbeat of “no rush on rate cuts,” although Goolsbee struck a surprisingly hawkish tone, cautioning about inflation risks stemming from potential tariffs.

This nuanced shift in narrative was further complicated by comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who indicated that the Trump administration’s focus on reducing borrowing costs would target the 10-year Treasury yields rather than the Fed’s short-term rates. This policy direction could have profound implications for long-term investment strategies and the broader economic landscape.

The US Dollar Index, reflecting these shifts in economic policy and investor sentiment, fell by 0.4 per cent, reaching its lowest point in over a week. This decline was partly due to receding fears of a global trade war, which also influenced currency pairs like USD/JPY, dropping from 154.50 to 152.50 after Japan reported stronger-than-expected wage growth, sparking speculation of another Bank of Japan rate hike.

Gold, often seen as a safe-haven asset, continued its bull run, climbing to a new high of US$2,865 per ounce. This surge was fuelled not only by the general risk-off sentiment but also by fears that higher tariffs might extend to precious metals and commodities imports from the UK and the European Union.

Conversely, Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.1 per cent after an EIA report highlighted an increase in crude oil inventories, adding to the overhang of geopolitical risks in the oil market.

Looking at the equity front, Asian markets took their cues from Wall Street, opening higher, while US equity futures suggested a positive start for American stocks, indicating a potential continuation of the stabilisation trend.

The week wasn’t just about traditional markets; significant strides were made in the digital asset space. White House Crypto Czar David Sacks announced that the first priority for the administration would be stablecoin legislation. This move comes at a time when stablecoins, despite their popularity mainly overseas, have yet to find a clear regulatory path in the US The establishment of a Crypto Task Force, with SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce at the helm, aims to carve out a regulatory framework that balances innovation with investor protection.

The task force’s agenda is ambitious but necessary. It seeks to eliminate the regulatory ambiguity that has long plagued the crypto industry, where businesses operate under the shadow of potential legal repercussions without clear guidelines. Commissioner Peirce emphasised in her statement that the SEC’s initiative isn’t an endorsement of any crypto asset but rather an effort to provide a regulatory environment that makes sense for crypto while safeguarding investors from fraudulent schemes. The focus on stablecoins is particularly pertinent, given their role in providing liquidity and stability within the volatile crypto market.

This regulatory push could potentially be legislated within six months, according to Sacks, which is a bold timeline considering the complexities involved. Yet, it signals a significant shift towards integrating cryptocurrencies into the mainstream financial system, recognising their potential while addressing the inherent risks.

In conclusion, this week’s market movements reflect a broader narrative of stabilisation amidst volatility, driven by economic data, policy signals, and geopolitical developments. The focus on stablecoin regulation could be a game-changer for the crypto market, potentially fostering an environment where digital assets can thrive under a clearer legal framework.

However, the journey towards such stability in both traditional and digital markets is fraught with challenges, requiring a delicate balance between fostering innovation and ensuring economic and financial integrity. As we move forward, the interplay between market sentiment, regulatory actions, and global economic policies will continue to shape our financial landscape in unpredictable but potentially rewarding ways.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-new-norm-stabilising-global-risk-sentiment-in-a-volatile-market-20250206/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j