January 30th, 2025

DEX derivatives market forecast to reach $3.48T in 2025: dYdX

Derivatives trading on decentralized exchanges (DEXs) is forecast to more than double this year as more investors opt for cheaper and more liquid alternatives to centralized platforms.

According to the dYdX “Annual Ecosystem Report 2024,” DEX derivatives volumes grew 132% last year to reach a record $1.5 trillion. Perpetual DEX volumes were valued at $81 billion in January before skyrocketing to $242 billion by December.

Assuming the same growth rate, dYdX expects total DEX volumes to reach $3.48 trillion in 2025.

DEXs have also become a popular venue for spot trading, more than doubling their spot market share from 9% to 20%, the report said.

While surging DEX volumes are a reflection of the crypto bull market, these platforms also attract users due to their low transaction fees and greater access to more speculative assets.

For example, DEX trading volumes on Solana have skyrocketed due to the memecoin frenzy. In early January, daily trading volumes on Solana-based DEXs exceeded Ethereum and Base combined.

US reporting requirements could push more users toward DEXs in the short term

Despite the inauguration of the pro-crypto Trump administration, certain reporting requirements affecting centralized exchanges in the United States may compel more traders to opt for DEXs.

Beginning this year, the US Internal Revenue Service will require centralized exchanges and other brokers to report digital asset transactions. The reporting rules will expand to DEXs in 2027.

While the IRS said this rule should help investors “file accurate tax returns” on their crypto, some industry participants view it as an overreach.

There’s a “real risk of pushing users toward decentralized platforms like Uniswap or PancakeSwap,” government blockchain expert Anndy Lian told Cointelegraph.

“While decentralized systems currently pose challenges for tax enforcement, advancements in blockchain analytics and potential regulatory developments by 2027 could change this landscape,” said Lian.

The IRS’ reporting rules have faced heavy opposition from the crypto industry, with the Blockchain Association suing the tax agency in December. According to the lawsuit, the IRS has overstepped its statutory authority and has violated the Administrative Procedure Act.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/dex-derivatives-market-forecast-double-2025-dydx

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

January 28th, 2025

Geopolitical risks and economic opportunities: A market overview on global trends

The article covers the complexity of current market conditions, the ongoing geopolitical and economic risks, and the potential for growth in certain sectors, including Bitcoin, as of January 27, 2025.

Key points:

Global markets remain cautious as geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty weigh on sentiment.
President Trump’s tariffs and sanctions on Colombia, tied to immigration policy, add to global unease.
Markets rebounded last week after Trump avoided immediate tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, easing fears of a trade war.
The Federal Reserve is expected to pause rate cuts, while tech earnings will be a major focus for US equities.
Chinese economic data, due soon, will test global sentiment.
US equities dipped, Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, and gold prices rose.
Bitcoin dropped 1.2 per cent but saw a rise in trading volume and market cap, signalling strong momentum despite short-term challenges.

Global risk sentiment and market rebound

Global markets are treading carefully as uncertainty continues to dominate the financial landscape. President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs and sanctions on Colombia, citing its role in obstructing his immigration goals, has added another layer of tension. This move highlights the administration’s willingness to use economic measures to achieve political ends, which has left investors wary of further disruptions.

Despite these concerns, markets managed to stage a recovery last week. Fears of an immediate trade war were eased when Trump held off on imposing tariffs on key trading partners like Mexico, Canada, and China. This decision provided some relief to investors, who had braced for a more aggressive stance. However, the underlying risks remain, and the potential for future trade conflicts continues to cast a shadow over global sentiment.

US economic developments and federal reserve outlook

In the US, all eyes are on the tech sector as earnings season kicks off. The performance of major technology companies will be critical, as this sector has been a driving force behind market gains in recent years. Strong results could help stabilise equities, while weaker-than-expected numbers might amplify concerns about the broader economy.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady in its upcoming meeting. This pause in the rate-cutting cycle reflects a cautious approach to monetary policy, as the Fed navigates a mixed economic environment. Investors will be closely watching for any signals about future policy moves, as these could have significant implications for both domestic and global markets.

Chinese economic data and asian market trends

Outside the US, attention is turning to China, where key economic activity data is set to be released. This data will offer valuable insights into the health of the Chinese economy, which has been grappling with slower growth and ongoing trade tensions. A strong reading could boost global sentiment, while weaker numbers might deepen concerns about the global recovery.

Asian markets have been mixed in early trading, reflecting the region’s sensitivity to both local and international developments. As investors digest the implications of US policies and await Chinese data, volatility is likely to remain a key feature of the market in the near term.

Market performance: Equities, bonds, and commodities

US equities saw a slight decline, with the MSCI US index down 0.8 per cent. However, the Real Estate sector stood out, gaining 1.2 per cent as investors sought defensive plays. Treasury yields also fell, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.62 per cent and the two year yield slipping to 4.27 per cent. These moves suggest a cautious approach by investors, who are seeking safer assets amid ongoing uncertainty.

The US dollar continued its recent pullback, falling 0.6 per cent, while gold prices rose 0.6 per cent, nearing US$2,800 per ounce. Gold’s upward momentum reflects its appeal as a safe-haven asset in times of uncertainty. In the oil market, Brent crude remained below US$80 per barrel, with geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ dynamics adding to the complexity. President Trump’s pressure on Russia to resolve the Ukraine conflict and his demands for lower crude prices have further complicated the outlook for energy markets.

Bitcoin performance and market sentiment

Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, experienced a 1.2 per cent drop over the past 24 hours, trading at US$107,098.75. Despite the decline, trading volume surged by 13 per cent to US$83.05 billion, and market capitalisation rose by two per cent to US$2.09 trillion. These figures suggest that while Bitcoin is facing short-term challenges, there is still strong underlying momentum in the market.

Technical indicators paint a cautiously optimistic picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 60.68, signalling mild bullish strength while staying below the overbought level of 70. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a bullish crossover, with the MACD line at 2,474.87 above the signal line at 1,732.52. Resistance is expected at US$106,251, with support at US$102,693. While Bitcoin’s price remains volatile, the broader market sentiment appears to be leaning toward further gains in the near term.

Conclusion

Global markets are navigating a complex web of risks and opportunities, shaped by geopolitical tensions, economic data, and central bank policies. While last week’s rebound in equities provided some relief, the underlying uncertainties—ranging from US trade policies to Chinese economic performance—continue to weigh on sentiment.

In the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin’s recent dip highlights the challenges facing digital assets in today’s environment. However, strong trading activity and bullish technical indicators suggest that the market still has room to grow. As investors monitor these developments, staying adaptable and informed will be crucial for navigating the road ahead.

Source: https://e27.co/geopolitical-risks-and-economic-opportunities-a-market-overview-on-global-trends-20250127/

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

January 19th, 2025

Donald Trump Inauguration Will Bring ‘Noise’ to 2025 Crypto Market: Analysts

Monday’s inauguration of Donald Trump isn’t likely to bring any significant price moves for major cryptocurrencies, according to industry experts who spoke to Decrypt before Friday night’s surprise drop of an official Trump meme coin.

Well-established coins such as Bitcoin, Solana, and XRP have risen considerably since the Republican’s election victory on November 5, leading some experts to suggest that the market has already priced in the inauguration.

“I do not anticipate any significant movements on Monday,” YouHodler’s chief of markets Ruslan Lienkha, told Decrypt.

“The event appears to be already priced in, and the inauguration is mainly ceremonial rather than market-moving,” he added.

Some observers also highlight the possibility of a “sell-the-news” day for major tokens, with Bitcoin having already gained strongly in the runup to Trump’s swearing in.

“With [positive] CPI data already priced in and Trump’s inauguration unlikely to introduce any immediate, game-changing policies for crypto, Monday could see a pullback as short-term traders lock in gains,” suggests Anndy Lian, an intergovernmental blockchain advisor and cryptocurrency author.

This suggestion resonates with starker warnings given by figures such as BitMex co-founder Arthur Hayes, who predicted last month that Bitcoin may suffer a “vicious sell-off” when Trump takes office.

While not as pessimistic as Hayes, Swarm co-founder Philipp Pieper tells Decrypt that the inauguration itself doesn’t provide the market with any new information.

“It’s really important to underline here that any price movement on Monday is going to be mostly noise in the bigger picture,” he explained.

But this picture could change as soon as Trump and his administration gets to work, with traders waiting to see whether the current President-elect will live up to earlier pronouncements.

“I’m more closely focused on what he (and his administration) will implement over the next few months,” eToro market analyst Simon Peters told Decrypt.

Peters notes that Trump complained at a recent press conference that interest rates are “far too high,” suggesting that the incoming President may push to lower them.

“A loosening of financial conditions under his administration could provide a tailwind for crypto-asset prices,” Peters adds.

And assuming that recent reports of crypto-related executive orders are accurate, analysts are relatively confident that the general trajectory of the market this year will be upwards.

Pieper explained: “As the regulatory environment becomes clearer and the market grasps tangible updates for the first year of the Trump administration, we’re likely to see a general uplift in prices.”

Legislative and regulatory moves are also likely to combine with tentatively improving macroeconomic indicators, such as US inflation.

“Inflation and rate sensitivity matters because it ultimately has a major say in the outlook for money supply and market liquidity,” said Pieper. “The more liquidity in the market, the more it will raise asset prices.”

Yet while the arrival of both crypto-friendly macroeconomics and presidents should point towards generally rising prices, some analysts warn that some of Donald Trump’s other economic policies could indirectly bite the cryptocurrency market.

“Other policies, such as the potential intensification of trade wars and the imposition of new tariffs, could sustain elevated inflation levels and exert downward pressure on financial markets,” warns Youhodler’s Ruslan Lienkha.

This is perhaps why it would be premature to expect major moves on Monday, since the market will need the new administration to act before it can begin differentiating perceptions from reality.

On the other hand, Monday may expose smaller cap tokens and (politically themed) meme coins to a greater degree of volatility.

“For instance, tokens like MAGA or DOGE [Department of Government Efficiency] may stage a rally, influenced by emotional trading rather than substantive factors,” Lienkha suggested.

However, Phillipp Pieper cautions that they may just as easily crash, in view of their low liquidity.

“The issue with these kinds of token is they’re largely sentiment-driven which can be extremely volatile and difficult to underpin the inherent value,” he said.

Source: https://decrypt.co/301635/donald-trump-inauguration-2025-crypto-market