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Global markets navigate political fault lines as technical rebound meets institutional crosscurrents

Global markets navigate political fault lines as technical rebound meets institutional crosscurrents

While US markets observed the Labour Day holiday, the quiet trading session masked underlying tensions simmering across multiple continents.

Europe on edge: France’s political turmoil spreads to bonds

European bond markets experienced broad-based weakness, particularly in France, where the spectre of a confidence vote threatening the stability of the government sent ripples through sovereign debt markets. The spread between French and German 10-year yields, a critical gauge of perceived risk within the Eurozone’s core, stabilised at 79 basis points. This figure, while slightly below the August 27 peak of 82 basis points, the highest level since January, remains deeply concerning.

Historically, such widening indicates heightened investor anxiety about fiscal sustainability and political cohesion. The French situation is not merely a domestic issue; it directly impacts the broader European project. A collapse of the current government could derail crucial budget negotiations and reignite fears about the Eurozone’s structural fragility, potentially forcing the European Central Bank into an uncomfortable position between managing inflation and preventing a sovereign debt flare-up.

The market’s nervousness reflects a very real possibility that political paralysis could lead to delayed fiscal adjustments, increasing the risk of a ratings downgrade and further capital flight from French assets.

Indonesia’s market shock: Politics trigger capital flight

Turning eastward, Indonesia emerged as a focal point of volatility. Its main stock index, the Jakarta Composite Index, plummeted 3.6 per cent on Monday, marking the steepest single-day decline in nearly five months. This sharp selloff was directly attributable to escalating political tensions following the recent presidential election.

The specific nature of these tensions involves contested results and legal challenges that have cast doubt on the smooth transition of power, a critical factor for emerging market stability. Investors reacted swiftly and severely, withdrawing capital perceived as exposed to potential policy uncertainty or social unrest.

The immediate consequence extended beyond equities; yields on Indonesia’s 10-year government bonds surged to their highest level in almost three weeks. Rising bond yields signal increased borrowing costs for the government and corporations, tightening financial conditions within the economy.

This dual pressure on stocks and bonds creates a challenging environment for the Bank of Indonesia, which must now weigh the need to potentially support the rupiah and contain inflation against the risk of further stifling economic growth. Indonesia’s vulnerability highlights a recurring theme in emerging markets where political instability can rapidly translate into significant financial market stress, deterring foreign investment and increasing the cost of capital across the board.

Commodities react to sanctions and safe-haven demand

Commodity markets displayed a more mixed picture. The US Dollar Index held relatively steady at 97.81, reflecting a temporary pause in the greenback’s recent trajectory as traders awaited key US economic data. Gold, however, saw a modest increase of 0.8 per cent, climbing to US$3476 per ounce.

This movement suggests a slight shift towards safe-haven assets, possibly driven by the European political anxieties and broader global uncertainties, even if the US market holiday limited overall activity. Brent crude oil futures rose 1.0 per cent to settle at US$68 per barrel.

This gain stemmed from a specific supply disruption: Saudi Arabia and Iraq halted crude oil shipments to a refinery in western India following European Union sanctions. While the immediate impact on global supply appears contained, it underscores the persistent vulnerability of energy markets to geopolitical friction and the complex interplay of international sanctions.

The incident serves as a reminder that regional political conflicts can quickly constrict supply chains, creating localised price spikes even amidst generally stable global oil fundamentals. Early Tuesday trading saw Asian equity indices open higher, potentially reflecting a degree of relief or positioning ahead of anticipated US economic data releases later in the week, though this initial move requires confirmation as trading volumes increase.

Crypto divergence: Bitcoin finds support, Ethereum stumbles

The cryptocurrency sector presented a stark contrast between Bitcoin and Ethereum, revealing divergent market dynamics.

Bitcoin edged up 0.81 per cent over the past 24 hours to US$109,151, slightly outperforming the broader crypto market which saw only a negligible 0.03 per cent gain. This minor recovery, while modest, carries significance as it occurred against a backdrop of a 3.5 per cent monthly decline.

The technical structure provided the immediate catalyst. Bitcoin stabilised just above a critical pivot point at US$108,804 after its Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicated oversold conditions, climbing from 38.59 to 40.56. This technical rebound suggests short-term traders actively bought the dip near this psychological and technical support level, anticipating a bounce.

Simultaneously, institutional activity offered a glimmer of positive sentiment. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded substantial inflows totalling US$550 million during the week, a notable figure given the prevailing market uncertainty. This institutional accumulation, even amidst volatility, signals continued long-term conviction from major players, providing a structural underpinning for the asset. However, the broader technical picture remains cautious.

Bitcoin continues to trade below all key moving averages, including the 7-day Simple Moving Average at US$110,039, indicating that the dominant momentum trend is still bearish. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, while showing slowing selling pressure at -625, remains firmly in negative territory.

The critical juncture now lies at the US$110,000 psychological and technical resistance level. A sustained break above this mark could trigger significant short-covering and attract fresh buying, potentially altering the near-term trajectory. Conversely, failure to hold above US$108,804 risks a retest of the June swing low near US$107,271, deepening the correction.

Ethereum told a markedly different story, falling 2.26 per cent to US$4,307.74 and significantly underperforming the broader market. Two primary forces drove this weakness. First, a decisive technical breakdown occurred as Ethereum breached the critical support zone at US$4,350 and the 100-hour Simple Moving Average around US$4,342. Such breaks often trigger automated stop-loss orders from algorithmic trading systems, accelerating the downward move.

The technical indicators confirmed the bearish shift. The RSI dipped to 42.24, showing weakening momentum, while the MACD histogram at -60.16 exhibited bearish divergence, meaning the price made a lower low but the momentum indicator did not confirm it strongly, often a sign of exhaustion before a potential reversal, though currently reinforcing the downtrend.

The immediate path of least resistance points lower, with the next significant support identified at the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level near US$4,344. A decisive close below this level could propel the price towards the stronger 50 per cent Fibonacci support at US$4,155. The second major factor was a substantial outflow from Ethereum ETFs.

On August 18, a significant US$196.6 million was withdrawn from these newly launched products, effectively reversing the positive momentum generated by earlier institutional interest. This outflow directly increased sell-side pressure in the spot market.

Compounding this, large holders, often termed whales, reduced their Ethereum holdings by approximately 1.2 million ETH, representing a value of roughly US$5 billion over the preceding 30 days. Such movements by major players historically erode market confidence and can trigger follow-on selling.

However, a nuanced detail offers a potential counterbalance. Smaller addresses, holding between 10 and 100 ETH often categorised as “sharks” representing active retail or smaller institutional players, accumulated a substantial 4.4 million ETH during the same period.

This suggests that while large entities retreated, a different segment of the market saw value at lower prices, potentially establishing a floor. The long-term picture retains a stabilising element, as approximately US$6.3 billion worth of Ethereum remains locked within the ETF structures, providing a foundational level of institutional support even during periods of outflow volatility.

A fragile global balance ahead

The convergence of these disparate market movements paints a picture of a global financial system operating under significant strain but not yet in crisis.

Political risks in Europe and Asia are actively pricing in potential instability, forcing investors to demand higher compensation for perceived sovereign and emerging market risks. Commodity markets react to both geopolitical friction and the underlying strength or weakness of the US dollar.

Within the volatile cryptocurrency sector, the divergent paths of Bitcoin and Ethereum underscore the maturation of the market. Bitcoin increasingly demonstrates characteristics of a macro asset, reacting to broader risk sentiment and attracting institutional capital flows even during downturns, while Ethereum remains more susceptible to technical breakdowns and specific product dynamics like ETF flows.

Traders globally are now intensely focused on upcoming US economic data, particularly the non-farm payrolls report. This data will be pivotal in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next moves on interest rates. A stronger-than-expected report could delay anticipated rate cuts, strengthening the dollar and increasing pressure on risk assets including equities and cryptocurrencies.

Conversely, weaker data could accelerate expectations for monetary easing, potentially providing relief across risk markets. The current environment demands constant vigilance. Thin holiday trading can amplify moves, political risks can escalate rapidly, and technical levels can trigger significant momentum shifts.

The stability observed in some areas, like the US Dollar Index, feels provisional, dependent on the next data point or political development. Investors must navigate a landscape where traditional correlations can fracture under stress, and localised political events can have outsized global financial repercussions.

The coming weeks will test whether the current market structure can absorb these pressures or if the underlying tensions will coalesce into a broader reassessment of risk across multiple asset classes. The path forward hinges on the interplay between political resolution, central bank communication, and the resilience of technical support levels holding firm against waves of selling pressure.

 

Source: https://e27.co/global-markets-navigate-political-fault-lines-as-technical-rebound-meets-institutional-crosscurrents-20250902/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Markets plunge into September chaos: Tech titans tumble as global tensions ignite

Markets plunge into September chaos: Tech titans tumble as global tensions ignite

As the calendar flips to September 1, 2025, the global financial landscape reflects a cautious start to the month, with major US stock markets shuttered for the Labour Day holiday. This closure comes on the heels of a turbulent end to August, where Wall Street grappled with a tech-fuelled downturn that capped off the month on a sour note.

Asian markets, stepping in to kick off the week’s trading, have largely followed suit by opening lower, echoing the unease from Friday’s US session. Investors are navigating a complex web of influences, from persistent inflation pressures and tariff anxieties to the allure of artificial intelligence advancements and the anticipation of Federal Reserve policy shifts.

This mix signals a market at a crossroads, poised for potential rebounds driven by technological innovation but vulnerable to macroeconomic headwinds that could prolong volatility. The story here is not just about numbers on a screen but about how these forces interplay to shape investor confidence in an increasingly interconnected world.

US stocks stumble: Tech sell-off steals the spotlight

Turning first to the US markets, the recap from August 29, 2025, paints a picture of restrained optimism giving way to broader concerns. The S&P 500 closed down 0.64 per cent at 6,460.26, slipping from its recent record highs amid losses in key artificial intelligence-related stocks.

The Nasdaq Composite, heavily weighted toward technology, fared worse, declining 1.15 per cent to 21,455.55, underscoring the sector’s outsized influence on overall market performance. Even the Dow Jones Industrial Average, typically more insulated from tech swings, edged lower by 0.3 per cent.

This session marked the end of a fourth consecutive winning month for the S&P 500, which still managed a 1.4 per cent gain for August, but the Friday pullback highlighted emerging cracks in the rally. Tech giants bore the brunt of the selling pressure, with Nvidia shares tumbling over three per cent following reports of heightened competition from Chinese firm Alibaba’s advanced chip development.

Dell Technologies’ stock plummeted nearly nine per cent after the company’s third-quarter profit guidance disappointed analysts, despite robust demand for AI infrastructure. Marvell Technology’s shares cratered 19 per cent on a weak sales forecast, further amplifying the sector’s woes. On a brighter note, Affirm Holdings surged 11 per cent after reporting a quarterly profit, offering a rare counterpoint in an otherwise downbeat day for growth stocks.

Inflation fears and tariff turmoil: The hidden market killers

Beyond the tech sell-off, broader economic signals contributed to the muted sentiment. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dipped in August, as respondents expressed growing fears over inflation. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, held above the two per cent target in July, muddying the waters for a potential September rate cut. Tariff uncertainties loomed large, with Caterpillar’s comments on potential earnings impacts from higher duties weighing on industrial sentiment.

This tariff narrative is particularly under-appreciated. While they aim to protect domestic industries, they risk inflating costs across supply chains, potentially stifling the very growth they’ve helped foster in areas like manufacturing and tech hardware. The market’s reaction suggests investors are starting to price in these frictions, especially as global trade tensions simmer.

Despite these headwinds, the month’s overall gains, S&P up 1.4 per cent, Dow up two per cent, Nasdaq up 1.6 per cent, indicate resilience, buoyed by strong AI-driven earnings from select mega-caps. However, the divergence between winners like Affirm and losers like Marvell suggests a selective market, where only the strongest narratives prevail.

Asia awakens to red screens: Tech restrictions fuel the fire

Shifting focus to the Asia-Pacific region on this September 1 morning, markets have opened with declines, mirroring the weakness in US tech and broader global jitters. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.26 per cent to 42,718.47, dragged down by tech and export-oriented stocks amid ongoing concerns about trade data. South Korea’s Kospi index dropped around two per cent in early trading, hit hard by losses in memory chip giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which slid after the US Commerce Department revoked their authorisation to ship certain goods from China without licenses.

This move exacerbates US-China tech tensions, directly impacting supply chains for semiconductors critical to AI and consumer electronics. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index showed mixed results, leaning lower at around 24,858.82, influenced by regional volatility. A standout exception was Alibaba, whose shares surged 13 per cent on news of its more advanced AI chip, providing a rare boost in an otherwise subdued session.

In China, the CSI 300 index hovered flat, but auto makers faced headwinds, with BYD reporting its first quarterly profit drop in over three years due to aggressive domestic discounting. India’s Sensex and Nifty indices dipped slightly, pressured by foreign capital outflows and tariff concerns stemming from global trade dynamics.

From my perspective, Asia’s performance highlights the ripple effects of US policy; restrictions on tech exports not only harm specific companies but also erode broader market confidence, potentially slowing the region’s recovery from post-pandemic sluggishness. However, Alibaba’s gain hints at China’s push for self-reliance in AI, which could reshape the competitive landscape over time.

Gold’s golden surge: Safe havens shine amid the storm

Several other key drivers are at play, amplifying the market’s choppy mood. Gold prices have continued their ascent, touching new all-time highs in late August, fueled by expectations of a Fed rate cut and escalating geopolitical uncertainties.

This safe-haven rally reflects investor caution, as lower interest rates typically weaken the dollar and boost non-yielding assets, such as gold. Overall sentiment remains volatile, as it is influenced by the robust AI earnings of some firms, offset by disappointments from others, and further complicated by trade tensions. This duality captures the market’s current paradox: technological progress offers long-term promise, but near-term risks from inflation and tariffs could trigger sharper corrections if unresolved.

Bitcoin’s brutal breakdown: Crypto kings crumble under pressure

Diving deeper into cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin has extended its decline, falling 0.96 per cent to around US$108,253 over the past 24 hours, marking a 4.19 per cent weekly drop. Three primary factors are driving this: a macro risk-off sentiment, where simultaneous outflows from Bitcoin and gold ETFs signal broad investor caution amid Fed policy ambiguity; a technical breakdown below the critical US$118,000 support level, activating stop-loss orders and bearish indicators like a MACD of -1,931.67 and RSI at 32.47; and a liquidation cascade, with US$24.45 million in Bitcoin liquidations amplifying the downside momentum.

The Fear & Greed Index at 39 underscores prevailing fear, discouraging buy-the-dip activity. Looking ahead, upcoming data like August Non-Farm Payrolls and the Fed Beige Book could provide policy clues, but a close below US$107,000 might test lower Fibonacci levels around US$117,958.

In my view, Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macro shifts highlights its maturation as an asset class, once seen as uncorrelated, it’s now intertwined with traditional markets, offering hedge potential but also exposing it to the same uncertainties. While some forecasts eye US$125,000 by September or even US$221,000 by year-end, the risk of deeper pullbacks looms if institutional demand wanes.

Ethereum’s edge of collapse: Liquidations loom large

Ethereum, meanwhile, has underperformed the broader crypto market, dipping 0.77 per cent to US$4,407 in the last 24 hours. Key pressures include liquidation risks near US$4,400, where over US$1 billion in long positions could unravel if breached, following US$108 million in network-wide liquidations; a bearish technical setup, with ETH struggling below its seven-day simple moving average of US$4,444 and showing MACD divergence at -54.73; and macro caution ahead of US jobs data and Fed signals.

The RSI at 52.74 indicates neutral momentum, but failure to hold US$4,400 risks a drop to the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement at US$4,155. On the upside, a rebound above US$4,550 could squeeze shorts and target US$4,550 resistance. Ethereum’s ecosystem remains vibrant, with upcoming upgrades like Fusaka enhancing scalability, but competition from faster blockchains like Solana poses threats.

Personally, I see Ethereum’s trajectory as more promising than Bitcoin’s in the medium term; its DeFi dominance and staking mechanisms provide utility beyond speculation, potentially driving it toward US$5,000-US$10,000 by year-end if rate cuts materialise and institutional inflows resume. However, liquidation clusters and technical weaknesses demand vigilance.

The volatile road ahead: Will markets rebound or crash further?

In wrapping up this analysis, the markets on September 1, 2025, embody a delicate balance of hope and hesitation. The US holiday pause offers a moment for reflection, but Asia’s early slides suggest the tech sell-off’s aftershocks persist. With gold shining as a refuge and cryptos navigating their own storms, investors must weigh AI’s transformative potential against inflation’s stubborn grip and tariff-induced frictions.

I believe the path forward favours adaptability; those who pivot toward resilient sectors like AI infrastructure while hedging against policy risks stand to thrive. However, if tariffs escalate or inflation reaccelerates, we could see prolonged turbulence, reminding us that in finance, as in life, equilibrium is fleeting. The coming weeks, with key data releases and Fed decisions, will likely dictate whether this is a mere dip or the onset of a deeper recalibration.

 

Source: https://e27.co/markets-plunge-into-september-chaos-tech-titans-tumble-as-global-tensions-ignite-20250901/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Markets at a crossroads: Trump’s Fed clash, Powell’s pivot, and global ripple effects

Markets at a crossroads: Trump’s Fed clash, Powell’s pivot, and global ripple effects

On this late summer day in 2025, financial markets around the world display a mix of caution and optimism as investors digest a flurry of economic data, geopolitical tensions, and corporate developments. The overarching narrative centres on anticipation for key upcoming events like Nvidia’s earnings report and the personal consumption expenditures inflation figures, which could sway Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates.

At the same time, President Donald Trump’s bold move to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook injects fresh uncertainty into the mix, highlighting ongoing frictions between the White House and the central bank. Stocks in the United States closed lower yesterday, with the S&P 500 dropping 0.3 per cent to around 6,439, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shedding 349 points to finish at approximately 44,150, and the Nasdaq 100 declining 0.4 per cent amid sector rotations that hit consumer staples, health care, and utilities hardest.

This pullback follows a strong rally last week, driven by dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium, where he signalled potential rate cuts as early as September. Traders now price in an 86 per cent likelihood of such a move, reflecting hopes that lower borrowing costs will bolster economic growth amid signs of cooling inflation.

Trump’s move against the Fed

Turning to the macroeconomic landscape, Trump’s announcement yesterday afternoon marks a significant escalation in his longstanding feud with the Federal Reserve over monetary policy. He cited allegations of mortgage fraud against Cook, a claim that has drawn sharp rebukes from Democrats and raised questions about the independence of the central bank. Cook, for her part, quickly responded that she intends to continue her duties, setting the stage for potential legal battles.

This development comes at a delicate time, as the Fed navigates dual mandates of price stability and maximum employment. Experts view the action as an attempt by Trump to exert more influence over interest rate decisions, particularly after he has repeatedly criticised the Fed for not cutting rates aggressively enough to support his economic agenda.

The president posted the removal letter on his Truth Social account, accusing Cook of deceitful conduct in financial matters and expressing a lack of confidence in her ability to serve. While markets initially shrugged off the news, with the dollar paring some losses, the incident underscores broader concerns about policy interference that could erode investor trust in the institution responsible for steering the world’s largest economy.

Economic indicators and housing trends

Recent economic indicators paint a picture of an economy that remains resilient but shows pockets of weakness. New single-family home sales in July slipped 0.6 per cent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 652,000 units, which beat economists’ expectations of 630,000 but represented a slowdown from June’s revised 4.1 per cent gain.

The median sales price dropped to US$403,800, down 5.9 per cent year-over-year, suggesting builders are offering incentives like price cuts and mortgage rate buydowns to attract buyers in a high-interest environment. This data aligns with broader housing market trends, where affordability challenges persist despite a gradual easing in mortgage rates.

Meanwhile, the Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for August revealed a dip in activity, with the general business activity index falling to -1.8 from 0.9 in July, indicating a mild contraction in the sector. Production slowed to 15.3 from 21.3, though it stayed above long-term averages, and new orders turned positive at 5.8 for the first time since January.

Employment held steady at 8.8, with one in five firms adding staff while 11 per cent reduced headcounts. Capacity utilisation and shipments provided some bright spots, with the latter surging to a three-year high of 14.2. These figures highlight regional disparities, as Texas grapples with energy sector fluctuations and supply chain issues, yet overall sentiment points to cautious optimism for future growth.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index edged lower to -0.19 in July from -0.18 in June, marking the fourth consecutive month of below-trend economic activity. Only one of the four broad categories, production worsened, while three others continued to drag on the index, underscoring persistent headwinds in employment, sales, and personal consumption.

This subpar performance reinforces the narrative of a cooling economy, which bolsters the case for Fed rate cuts but also raises flags about potential recession risks if growth stalls further. Investors closely monitor these metrics, as they influence expectations for monetary policy adjustments that could ripple through asset classes.

Regional markets: US, Europe, and Asia

In equities, European markets mirrored the US downturn yesterday, with the STOXX Europe 50 falling 0.8 per cent to 5,444 and the broader STOXX 600 declining 0.5 per cent to 559. Banks bore the brunt of the losses, as investors reassessed rate-cut probabilities following Powell’s remarks.

Notable movers included BBVA down two per cent, BNP Paribas dropping 3.5 per cent, and UniCredit slipping 0.4 per cent after it converted its stake in Commerzbank to shares. On the positive side, JDE Peet’s soared 17.5 per cent amid a 15.7 billion euro takeover bid by Keurig Dr Pepper.

In comparison, Puma climbed 16 per cent on speculation of a potential acquisition by the Pinault family. These corporate deals inject some buoyancy, but the overall retreat reflects trimmed bets on aggressive Fed easing, even as European Central Bank officials hint at their own policy shifts.

Asian markets provided a counterpoint, with substantial gains in Hong Kong and mainland China yesterday. The Hang Seng Index surged 1.9 per cent to 25,830, its highest level since October 2021, fuelled by US rate-cut hopes and fresh stimulus from Beijing. The People’s Bank of China injected a net 465.7 billion yuan into the system, the largest daily addition since July, boosting liquidity and propelling tech stocks higher.

The Hang Seng Tech Index rose three per cent ahead of Nvidia’s earnings, with standout performers like KE Holdings up 5.6 per cent, Galaxy Entertainment gaining 5.3 per cent, Lenovo advancing 3.9 per cent, Meituan climbing three per cent, and Tencent rising 2.4 per cent. Consumer, property, and financial sectors also benefited from Shanghai’s decision to scrap property taxes for first-time homebuyers.

In China, the Shanghai Composite climbed 1.51 per cent to 3,884, a 10-year high, while the Shenzhen Component gained 2.26 per cent to 12,441. This rally stems from easing US-China trade tensions, policy support expectations, and positive spillover from Wall Street’s recent surge.

Investors now await the upcoming purchasing managers’ index and industrial profit data for further clues on China’s recovery trajectory. Top gainers included Cambricon up 11.4 per cent, China Northern Rare Earth advancing 9.9 per cent, and Hygon Information soaring 12.9 per cent.

Currencies, commodities, and fixed income

In foreign exchange markets, the US dollar staged a rebound, with the DXY index climbing to 98.20 amid broader currency fluctuations. The euro weakened against the greenback, reflecting divergent monetary policy outlooks between the Fed and the European Central Bank.

This strength in the dollar comes despite Trump’s Fed actions, which initially pressured the currency but later saw it pare losses as gold trimmed gains. Commodities extended their upward momentum, with oil prices touching US$65 per barrel after four straight days of gains. Brent crude eased slightly today after surging nearly two per cent yesterday on concerns over Russia-Ukraine supply disruptions, but the overall trend points to tightening global inventories and geopolitical risks supporting higher prices.

In fixed income, demand for short-term US Treasuries remained robust, with three- and six-month bills attracting strong bids at recent auctions. Yields on the 10-year note hovered around 4.26 per cent last week, down modestly as investors sought safety amid equity volatility.

Crypto sector shifts and Ethereum’s momentum

The cryptocurrency sector experienced significant turbulence, with digital asset investment products recording US$1.43 billion in outflows last week, the heaviest since March, according to CoinShares. Trading volumes in exchange-traded products jumped to US$38 billion, 50 per cent above the 2025 average, reflecting heightened activity amid shifting sentiment tied to US monetary policy signals.

Early-week outflows reached US$2 billion, but inflows of US$594 million materialised later following Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole speech. Bitcoin suffered the most, with US$1 billion in outflows, while Ethereum saw US$440 million exit, though the latter rebounded strongly mid-week. Month-to-date, Ethereum boasts US$2.5 billion in net inflows compared to Bitcoin’s US$1 billion outflows, adjusting year-to-date figures to 26 per cent of assets under management for Ethereum versus 11 per cent for Bitcoin.

This divergence suggests institutional investors are reallocating toward Ethereum, drawn by its role in layer-two networks and growing adoption through exchange-traded funds. Altcoins showed mixed results, with XRP attracting US$25 million, Solana US$12 million, and Cronos US$4.4 million, indicating selective confidence in ecosystems with robust user bases.

Tom Lee from Bitmine highlight Ethereum’s potential, predicting prices could reach US$10,000 by year-end 2025, with upside to US$12,000-US$15,000 in bullish scenarios. Lee draws parallels to Bitcoin’s 2017 surge, emphasising Ethereum’s utility in decentralised finance and corporate treasury strategies.

He points to key support levels around US$4,300, where buyers have historically intervened, and notes that holding above US$4,067 could stabilise the asset short-term. Breaking US$5,100 might trigger a rally toward US$5,450, levels that guide strategic trading rather than impulsive moves.

Beyond speculation, Ethereum positions itself as a foundational element in digital finance, attracting hedge funds, family offices, and corporations for long-term holdings rather than quick trades. In a volatile market, Lee’s counsel emphasises patience, adherence to plans, and vigilance on price thresholds to navigate dips as buying opportunities.

Outlook: Navigating opportunity and risk

From my perspective, today’s dynamics reveal an economy at a crossroads. Trump’s intervention in the Fed risks politicising an institution designed for independence, potentially leading to market instability if it erodes global confidence in US policy.

The resilient economic data, better-than-expected home sales, and positive new orders in manufacturing suggest the foundation remains solid, supporting Powell’s case for measured rate cuts. Asian gains underscore how interconnected global markets have become, with China’s stimulus providing a buffer against US uncertainties.

In crypto, the shift toward Ethereum signals maturing investor preferences, favoring utility over pure store-of-value narratives like Bitcoin’s “digital gold.” Overall, while short-term volatility looms with Nvidia’s report and PCE data, the broader outlook favours growth if policymakers avoid missteps.

Investors who focus on fundamentals over headlines stand to benefit, as these events test the durability of the post-pandemic recovery. This intricate web of factors demands careful navigation, but it also offers opportunities for those attuned to the nuances.

 

Source: https://e27.co/markets-at-a-crossroads-trumps-fed-clash-powells-pivot-and-global-ripple-effects-20250826/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j