Tag Archives: markets

Global markets ride the Fed wave, but can the rally last?

Global markets ride the Fed wave, but can the rally last?

Global markets showed a resilient spirit as investors largely brushed aside brewing political storms in key regions like Japan, France, and parts of the emerging world. Traders focused instead on the promise of easier monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which propelled US stocks toward fresh peaks.

The S&P 500 gained 0.21 per cent, the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.45 per cent to a record close of 21,798.70, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.25 per cent. This upbeat mood reflected growing bets on a rate cut at the Fed’s September 17 meeting, with markets now pricing in a strong chance of a 50 basis point reduction following recent weak jobs data.

Economists at Standard Chartered and Bank of America adjusted their forecasts accordingly, pointing to cooling labour market signals as the trigger for bolder action from policymakers.

In my view, this optimism makes sense because the US economy still hums along with solid consumer spending and corporate earnings, but the Fed needs to act decisively to prevent any slowdown from gaining traction. A half-point cut could juice risk assets further without igniting inflation fears, especially with core PCE readings holding steady around 2.6 per cent.

Bonds, dollar, and gold respond

Bond markets echoed this sentiment as yields dipped across the curve. The two-year Treasury yield dropped 2.3 basis points to 3.486 per cent, while the ten-year yield fell 3.4 basis points to 4.040 per cent. Investors piled into Treasuries as a safe haven amid the political noise overseas, but the real driver came from expectations of lower short-term rates. The US Dollar Index weakened 0.3 per cent, easing pressure on exporters and giving multinational companies a breather on their overseas profits.

Gold, meanwhile, advanced 0.7 per cent to close at US$3,636 per ounce, benefiting from the dollar’s slide and persistent safe-haven demand tied to geopolitical flare-ups in the Middle East and Europe. I see gold’s rally as a classic hedge play, but its lofty levels also hint at broader concerns about fiscal sustainability in the US, where deficits continue to balloon past US$2 trillion annually. If the Fed cuts rates too aggressively, it could fuel even more gold buying from central banks in Asia and the Middle East.

Oil steadies on OPEC+ restraint

Over in commodities, Brent crude oil settled 0.8 per cent higher at US$66 per barrel after OPEC+ surprised markets with a smaller-than-expected supply hike. The group, comprising eight key members, agreed to boost output by just 137,000 barrels per day starting in October, a fraction of the 555,000 barrels per day increases seen in prior months. This cautious approach stems from sticky demand worries amid slowing global growth and ample non-OPEC supply from the US shale patch.

Geopolitical tensions, including Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and sanctions on Russian exports, kept a floor under prices, preventing a deeper slide. OPEC+’s restraint buys time for oil producers to navigate the energy transition, but it also underscores the cartel’s waning influence as electric vehicles proliferate and renewable investments surge. If China’s economy rebounds more forcefully than expected, we could see Brent push toward US$70 by year-end, but recession risks in Europe temper that upside.

Asia reacts to US momentum

Asian stock indexes mostly climbed on Monday, buoyed by the US rally and hopes for synchronised global easing. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged to a milestone 44,000 for the first time, fuelled by optimism around trade deals and consumer spending data that beat forecasts. The index pulled back slightly in early Tuesday trading as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s potential departure added to policy uncertainty, with the yen weakening further against the dollar.

Political turbulence in Europe and emerging markets

In France, the government’s collapse under Prime Minister François Bayrou marked yet another chapter in political instability, raising fears of snap elections and fiscal gridlock that could drag on the eurozone’s recovery. Emerging markets faced their own headwinds, but the standout story came from Indonesia, where the Jakarta Composite plunged 1.28 per cent ahead of President Prabowo Subianto’s announcement replacing Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati with economist Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa.

Mulyani, a globally respected figure who steered the economy through the pandemic, leaves a void that could spark market jitters, especially with Indonesia’s rupiah already under pressure from capital outflows. Early Tuesday sessions saw most Asian bourses edge higher, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 0.5 per cent on tech gains and South Korea’s Kospi adding 0.3 per cent.

These political shifts, while disruptive, are priced mainly in the months following, and markets will pivot back to fundamentals, such as earnings growth. That said, Indonesia’s move feels riskier; losing Mulyani at a time of high public debt could invite rating agency scrutiny and higher borrowing costs for Southeast Asia’s largest economy.

Crypto consolidates amid uncertainty

Turning to cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin grappled with resistance around US$112,500, consolidating after a recovery from the US$110,000 support zone. The flagship coin traded above US$111,000 and its 100-hour simple moving average, with a bullish trend line holding at US$110,800 on the hourly chart sourced from Kraken data. Bulls pushed past the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement of the recent swing from US$113,372 to US$110,039, but bears dug in near US$112,600, capping upside.

A break below US$110,800 could trigger a sharper pullback, while staying under US$113,000 might signal more downside. Recent whale activity added pressure, with large holders offloading 112,000 BTC over the past month, hinting at September’s historical weakness for the asset.

On X, analysts noted Bitcoin boxing between US$112,000 and US$114,000 ahead of key CPI data, urging caution in a video breakdown that highlighted macro tailwinds from Fed cuts. Another post from Swiss Whale Intelligence flagged massive sales of over 5,000 BTC each, underscoring exchange inflows that could weigh on sentiment.

In my opinion, Bitcoin’s current stall reflects a broader crypto market awaiting clarity on US policy, but the setup favours bulls if rate cuts materialise. With mining difficulty hitting all-time highs, network security remains robust, and institutional inflows via ETFs could propel BTC toward US$116,000 if it clears US$113,000 resistance. September often proves choppy for Bitcoin, but this cycle’s momentum from halvings and adoption suggests any dip below US$110,000 offers a buying opportunity rather than a bear trap.

Dogecoin’s speculative swings

Dogecoin, the perennial meme coin darling, sparked endless debates on its trajectory, blending community fervour with technical scrutiny. After a strong first-quarter rebound above US$0.40, DOGE retreated to around US$0.22, testing support amid waning hype. Recent charts from CryptoELITES on X show resistance at US$0.27 and US$0.31, with a breakout requiring fresh institutional spark or viral momentum.

The REX-Osprey ETF filing emerged as a potential catalyst, promising easier access for big players and clearer regulations that could mirror Bitcoin’s ETF boost. Changelly’s forecasts paint a measured path: US$0.21 to US$0.24 in 2025, dipping to US$0.14 to US$0.19 in 2026 before rebounding to US$0.36 in 2027 and US$0.45 to US$0.53 in 2028.

By 2030, they eye highs near US$1.13, driven by broader crypto adoption and Dogecoin’s utility in payments via integrations like Twitter’s tipping features. Other analysts diverge; Wallet Investor sees an average US$0.279 by the end of 2025, while CoinCodex predicts a 16 per cent rise to US$0.276 by October, contingent on the altcoin season kicking in as Bitcoin dominance fades.

I lean toward the conservative side here; Dogecoin thrives on Elon Musk’s tweets and meme culture, but sustained growth requires real-world use cases, such as microtransactions or DeFi integrations. At current levels, it carves a potential bottom, and a push to US$0.54 on ETF approvals feels plausible, but US$5 remains a stretch without massive hype cycles. Speculators aiming for US$1 by 2030 should watch for volume spikes and correlation with Bitcoin’s movements, as DOGE often amplifies broader crypto trends.

Final thoughts: Risk appetite intact

Looking across these developments, global risk appetite holds firm despite the political crosswinds, and I expect that trend to persist into the week’s CPI release and Fed meeting. US equities near records underscore the strength of tech and consumer sectors, but watch for overvaluation in megacaps like Nvidia and Apple, where earnings multiples exceed 30 times forward profits.

Political risks in Japan and France could spill over if they delay reforms, hurting export-dependent economies, while Indonesia’s finance minister swaps tests emerging market resilience. In commodities, oil’s modest uptick buys time for OPEC+, but non-OPEC supply growth caps gains. Crypto, with Bitcoin’s consolidation and Dogecoin’s speculative allure, mirrors the macro divide between steady growth and high-volatility bets.

Overall, I view this as a constructive setup for risk assets, provided the Fed delivers on cuts without signalling distress. Investors should trim exposures in volatile pockets like emerging equities and meme coins, while adding to quality US names and gold as hedges. The next few days will clarify if this shrug-off of uncertainties proves prescient or premature, but the data points to a continued upward grind amid easing cycles worldwide.

 

Source: https://e27.co/global-markets-ride-the-fed-wave-but-can-the-rally-last-20250909/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The great repricing: How fiscal anxiety is reshaping global markets from bonds to Bitcoin

The great repricing: How fiscal anxiety is reshaping global markets from bonds to Bitcoin

Global markets have entered a phase of heightened caution as fiscal stability concerns ripple across major economies, prompting investors to reassess risk assets and flock toward safer havens.

Investors pulled back from equities amid worries over government debt levels and potential policy missteps, leading to declines in key indices. This retreat reflects broader anxieties about how governments will manage swelling deficits in an environment of elevated interest rates and geopolitical tensions.

This pullback serves as a necessary correction after months of optimism driven by central bank easing expectations, but it also highlights vulnerabilities that could persist if fiscal policies fail to instil confidence. The interplay between rising yields and weakening currencies underscores a market grappling with the realities of post-pandemic debt burdens, where any sign of instability can quickly amplify losses.

US equities under pressure

In the United States, stock markets experienced notable declines, with the S&P 500 dropping 0.7 per cent, the NASDAQ falling 0.8 per cent, and the Dow Jones slipping 0.6 per cent. These moves came as traders digested ongoing fiscal debates in Washington, including discussions around debt ceilings and spending priorities that could strain the economy further.

Federal Reserve outlook and market pause

The broader context involves speculation about Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, with markets pricing in a high probability of a September cut amid softening economic data. From my perspective, these dips in equities represent a healthy pause rather than the start of a deeper bear market, as underlying corporate earnings remain robust in sectors like technology and consumer goods.

If fiscal concerns escalate into actual policy gridlock, we could see more pronounced selling pressure, especially in overvalued tech stocks that have led the rally so far this year.

Dollar strength amid global uncertainty

The US Dollar Index strengthened by 0.6 per cent to close at 98.33, benefiting from its safe-haven status amid global uncertainties. This uptick pushed the index higher to 98.37 in subsequent trading, reflecting weakness in counterparts like the British pound and Japanese yen.

The dollar’s resilience stems from relative economic strength in the US compared to Europe and Asia, where growth forecasts have been revised downward due to trade tensions and energy supply risks. I believe the dollar’s strength will continue in the near term, acting as a buffer against imported inflation, but it risks exacerbating export challenges for American firms if it appreciates too aggressively.

Rising yields and treasury market dynamics

US Treasuries faced selling pressure, with yields on the 10-year note climbing five basis points to around 4.28 per cent. This increase followed weakness in European bonds, where longer-dated securities bore the brunt of investor unease. The par yield curve data for early 2025 shows a steepening trend, indicating market expectations for higher long-term rates amid persistent inflation worries.

In my opinion, this yield surge signals investor skepticism about the Fed’s ability to engineer a soft landing without reigniting price pressures, particularly if fiscal spending remains unchecked. Treasuries, traditionally a refuge, now compete with alternatives like gold, which offer hedges against both inflation and currency debasement.

UK fiscal challenges and gilt sell-off

Across the Atlantic, the United Kingdom grapples with its own fiscal headaches, as long-term bond yields soared to levels not seen since 1998. The 30-year gilt yield jumped to 5.72 per cent, driven by a sell-off that also dragged the pound lower by as much as 1.5 per cent against the dollar.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces mounting pressure to clarify budgetary plans, with investors fretting over potential tax hikes or spending cuts that could stifle growth. The pound traded at a three-week low of 1.3375 against the dollar, highlighting the currency’s vulnerability to domestic policy shifts.

I see this as a critical juncture for the UK economy, where Starmer’s administration must balance fiscal prudence with economic stimulus to avoid a prolonged sterling slump. The surge in yields, while painful for borrowers, might force necessary reforms, but it risks tipping the economy into recession if not managed carefully.

Commodities: Gold and oil diverge

Commodities provided a mixed picture, with gold surging 2.2 per cent to a record high of US$3,533 per ounce. This rally gained traction from expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns over the central bank’s independence in the face of political pressures.

Analysts project gold averaging US$3,220 in 2025, buoyed by seasonal demand and monetary easing. Brent crude oil edged up 0.7 per cent, as traders weighed supply risks from renewed US sanctions on Russia and OPEC+’s reluctance to increase output. Ukrainian drone attacks and geopolitical escalations have kept prices supported, with Brent trading around US$68 per barrel.

Gold’s ascent underscores its role as a premier safe-haven asset in uncertain times, potentially outperforming equities if fiscal woes deepen. Oil’s modest gains, meanwhile, reflect a delicate balance between supply disruptions and demand concerns, with OPEC+’s upcoming meeting likely to dictate near-term direction.

Asian markets and big tech boost

Asian equity indices opened lower in early trading, mirroring the global risk-off mood, while US equity futures ticked higher, supported by after-hours gains in Alphabet following a favourable antitrust ruling.

A federal judge decided Google would not need to divest its Chrome browser, sparking an eight per cent surge in Alphabet’s stock. This decision avoided harsher penalties, boosting investor confidence in big tech. I interpret this as a positive for the broader market, as it reduces regulatory overhang on tech giants, potentially fuelling a rebound in US indices despite Asian weakness.

In foreign exchange markets, the USD/JPY pair rose 0.8 per cent to 148.40, its highest since early August, amid fiscal concerns in Japan. Near-term support for GBP/USD lies at 1.3500-1.3560, while resistance for USD/JPY is at 148.40-148.90. These levels suggest potential consolidation as traders await clearer signals from central banks.

Bitcoin momentum and institutional interest

Turning to cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin rose 1.63 per cent to US$111,342.85 over the past 24 hours, outpacing the broader market’s 1.6 per cent gain and reversing a 2.95 per cent decline over the prior 30 days. This uptick draws from bullish institutional sentiment and technical momentum.

JPMorgan’s declaration that Bitcoin appears undervalued relative to gold stands out as a key driver. The bank notes Bitcoin’s volatility has plummeted from 60 per cent to 30 per cent over six months, the narrowest gap with gold ever recorded. Their volatility-adjusted model pegs Bitcoin’s fair value at US$126,000, about 13 per cent above current levels.

This assessment positions Bitcoin as digital gold, attracting risk-averse institutions. BlackRock’s US$58 billion stake in Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury allocations, now holding six per cent of supply, bolster this demand. However, Bitcoin lingers 12 per cent below its recent all-time high, offering upside potential if stability holds.

I find this JPMorgan call compelling, as it marks a shift from traditional finance’s skepticism toward embracing Bitcoin’s maturation as an asset class. Reduced volatility not only draws in more capital but also diminishes the narrative of Bitcoin as a speculative gamble, paving the way for broader adoption.

Whale accumulation and custody shifts present a mixed but largely positive impact. Institutions like MicroStrategy have added 41,875 BTC since April 2025, while custodians such as Coinbase and Anchorage Digital manage about 80 per cent of ETF-held Bitcoin. Exchange reserves have hit multi-year lows as coins move to custody, reducing immediate sell pressure. This centralisation raises risks if regulators scrutinise custodians or liquidity issues arise. Retail participation stays muted, capping organic demand.

Recent data shows whales holding 1,000-10,000 BTC adding 16,000 coins during dips, while smaller wallets sold off. From my standpoint, this dynamic favours bulls in the long run, as institutional hoarding creates scarcity, but it demands vigilance against concentration risks that could amplify volatility in downturns.

Technically, Bitcoin shows neutral to bullish signals. The price sits above the 200-day simple moving average at US$101,388, with the 50-day SMA at US$114,675 nearing a golden cross. The RSI-14 at 45.54 indicates neutral momentum, while the MACD at -1,830 suggests consolidation. Fibonacci retracement points to resistance at US$113,836 and US$115,864.

A golden cross could draw algorithmic traders, but mixed indicators imply a period of range-bound trading. Predictions see Bitcoin reaching US$120,593 by early September. I view these technicals as supportive of gradual upside, particularly if Bitcoin breaks above US$115,864, which might trigger fresh buying. Failure to do so could test support at US$107,271, but overall, the setup aligns with institutional optimism.

On X, discussions echo this sentiment, with users highlighting JPMorgan’s undervalued call and whale accumulations as bullish catalysts. Posts note corporate treasuries going crypto-native, like SharpLink Gaming’s ETH buys, reinforcing Bitcoin’s appeal. Semantic searches reveal rising institutional sentiment since August, with whales adding significant holdings.

In my opinion, these trends solidify Bitcoin’s trajectory toward US$126,000, driven by convergence with gold and structural demand shifts. While global fiscal concerns weigh on traditional markets, Bitcoin’s resilience positions it as a standout performer, potentially decoupling from equity weakness if adoption accelerates.

Conclusion: Safe havens and Bitcoin’s rise

In summary, the retreat in risk sentiment amid fiscal worries has pressured stocks and currencies, but commodities like gold and Bitcoin shine as hedges. The UK’s bond turmoil exemplifies broader challenges, while US futures hint at selective recoveries.

For Bitcoin, the combination of undervaluation signals, whale activity, and technical poise suggests substantial upside ahead. As a journalist tracking these developments, I remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s role in portfolios, viewing current dips as entry points in a maturing asset class.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-great-repricing-how-fiscal-anxiety-is-reshaping-global-markets-from-bonds-to-bitcoin-20250903/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Global markets navigate political fault lines as technical rebound meets institutional crosscurrents

Global markets navigate political fault lines as technical rebound meets institutional crosscurrents

While US markets observed the Labour Day holiday, the quiet trading session masked underlying tensions simmering across multiple continents.

Europe on edge: France’s political turmoil spreads to bonds

European bond markets experienced broad-based weakness, particularly in France, where the spectre of a confidence vote threatening the stability of the government sent ripples through sovereign debt markets. The spread between French and German 10-year yields, a critical gauge of perceived risk within the Eurozone’s core, stabilised at 79 basis points. This figure, while slightly below the August 27 peak of 82 basis points, the highest level since January, remains deeply concerning.

Historically, such widening indicates heightened investor anxiety about fiscal sustainability and political cohesion. The French situation is not merely a domestic issue; it directly impacts the broader European project. A collapse of the current government could derail crucial budget negotiations and reignite fears about the Eurozone’s structural fragility, potentially forcing the European Central Bank into an uncomfortable position between managing inflation and preventing a sovereign debt flare-up.

The market’s nervousness reflects a very real possibility that political paralysis could lead to delayed fiscal adjustments, increasing the risk of a ratings downgrade and further capital flight from French assets.

Indonesia’s market shock: Politics trigger capital flight

Turning eastward, Indonesia emerged as a focal point of volatility. Its main stock index, the Jakarta Composite Index, plummeted 3.6 per cent on Monday, marking the steepest single-day decline in nearly five months. This sharp selloff was directly attributable to escalating political tensions following the recent presidential election.

The specific nature of these tensions involves contested results and legal challenges that have cast doubt on the smooth transition of power, a critical factor for emerging market stability. Investors reacted swiftly and severely, withdrawing capital perceived as exposed to potential policy uncertainty or social unrest.

The immediate consequence extended beyond equities; yields on Indonesia’s 10-year government bonds surged to their highest level in almost three weeks. Rising bond yields signal increased borrowing costs for the government and corporations, tightening financial conditions within the economy.

This dual pressure on stocks and bonds creates a challenging environment for the Bank of Indonesia, which must now weigh the need to potentially support the rupiah and contain inflation against the risk of further stifling economic growth. Indonesia’s vulnerability highlights a recurring theme in emerging markets where political instability can rapidly translate into significant financial market stress, deterring foreign investment and increasing the cost of capital across the board.

Commodities react to sanctions and safe-haven demand

Commodity markets displayed a more mixed picture. The US Dollar Index held relatively steady at 97.81, reflecting a temporary pause in the greenback’s recent trajectory as traders awaited key US economic data. Gold, however, saw a modest increase of 0.8 per cent, climbing to US$3476 per ounce.

This movement suggests a slight shift towards safe-haven assets, possibly driven by the European political anxieties and broader global uncertainties, even if the US market holiday limited overall activity. Brent crude oil futures rose 1.0 per cent to settle at US$68 per barrel.

This gain stemmed from a specific supply disruption: Saudi Arabia and Iraq halted crude oil shipments to a refinery in western India following European Union sanctions. While the immediate impact on global supply appears contained, it underscores the persistent vulnerability of energy markets to geopolitical friction and the complex interplay of international sanctions.

The incident serves as a reminder that regional political conflicts can quickly constrict supply chains, creating localised price spikes even amidst generally stable global oil fundamentals. Early Tuesday trading saw Asian equity indices open higher, potentially reflecting a degree of relief or positioning ahead of anticipated US economic data releases later in the week, though this initial move requires confirmation as trading volumes increase.

Crypto divergence: Bitcoin finds support, Ethereum stumbles

The cryptocurrency sector presented a stark contrast between Bitcoin and Ethereum, revealing divergent market dynamics.

Bitcoin edged up 0.81 per cent over the past 24 hours to US$109,151, slightly outperforming the broader crypto market which saw only a negligible 0.03 per cent gain. This minor recovery, while modest, carries significance as it occurred against a backdrop of a 3.5 per cent monthly decline.

The technical structure provided the immediate catalyst. Bitcoin stabilised just above a critical pivot point at US$108,804 after its Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicated oversold conditions, climbing from 38.59 to 40.56. This technical rebound suggests short-term traders actively bought the dip near this psychological and technical support level, anticipating a bounce.

Simultaneously, institutional activity offered a glimmer of positive sentiment. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded substantial inflows totalling US$550 million during the week, a notable figure given the prevailing market uncertainty. This institutional accumulation, even amidst volatility, signals continued long-term conviction from major players, providing a structural underpinning for the asset. However, the broader technical picture remains cautious.

Bitcoin continues to trade below all key moving averages, including the 7-day Simple Moving Average at US$110,039, indicating that the dominant momentum trend is still bearish. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, while showing slowing selling pressure at -625, remains firmly in negative territory.

The critical juncture now lies at the US$110,000 psychological and technical resistance level. A sustained break above this mark could trigger significant short-covering and attract fresh buying, potentially altering the near-term trajectory. Conversely, failure to hold above US$108,804 risks a retest of the June swing low near US$107,271, deepening the correction.

Ethereum told a markedly different story, falling 2.26 per cent to US$4,307.74 and significantly underperforming the broader market. Two primary forces drove this weakness. First, a decisive technical breakdown occurred as Ethereum breached the critical support zone at US$4,350 and the 100-hour Simple Moving Average around US$4,342. Such breaks often trigger automated stop-loss orders from algorithmic trading systems, accelerating the downward move.

The technical indicators confirmed the bearish shift. The RSI dipped to 42.24, showing weakening momentum, while the MACD histogram at -60.16 exhibited bearish divergence, meaning the price made a lower low but the momentum indicator did not confirm it strongly, often a sign of exhaustion before a potential reversal, though currently reinforcing the downtrend.

The immediate path of least resistance points lower, with the next significant support identified at the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level near US$4,344. A decisive close below this level could propel the price towards the stronger 50 per cent Fibonacci support at US$4,155. The second major factor was a substantial outflow from Ethereum ETFs.

On August 18, a significant US$196.6 million was withdrawn from these newly launched products, effectively reversing the positive momentum generated by earlier institutional interest. This outflow directly increased sell-side pressure in the spot market.

Compounding this, large holders, often termed whales, reduced their Ethereum holdings by approximately 1.2 million ETH, representing a value of roughly US$5 billion over the preceding 30 days. Such movements by major players historically erode market confidence and can trigger follow-on selling.

However, a nuanced detail offers a potential counterbalance. Smaller addresses, holding between 10 and 100 ETH often categorised as “sharks” representing active retail or smaller institutional players, accumulated a substantial 4.4 million ETH during the same period.

This suggests that while large entities retreated, a different segment of the market saw value at lower prices, potentially establishing a floor. The long-term picture retains a stabilising element, as approximately US$6.3 billion worth of Ethereum remains locked within the ETF structures, providing a foundational level of institutional support even during periods of outflow volatility.

A fragile global balance ahead

The convergence of these disparate market movements paints a picture of a global financial system operating under significant strain but not yet in crisis.

Political risks in Europe and Asia are actively pricing in potential instability, forcing investors to demand higher compensation for perceived sovereign and emerging market risks. Commodity markets react to both geopolitical friction and the underlying strength or weakness of the US dollar.

Within the volatile cryptocurrency sector, the divergent paths of Bitcoin and Ethereum underscore the maturation of the market. Bitcoin increasingly demonstrates characteristics of a macro asset, reacting to broader risk sentiment and attracting institutional capital flows even during downturns, while Ethereum remains more susceptible to technical breakdowns and specific product dynamics like ETF flows.

Traders globally are now intensely focused on upcoming US economic data, particularly the non-farm payrolls report. This data will be pivotal in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next moves on interest rates. A stronger-than-expected report could delay anticipated rate cuts, strengthening the dollar and increasing pressure on risk assets including equities and cryptocurrencies.

Conversely, weaker data could accelerate expectations for monetary easing, potentially providing relief across risk markets. The current environment demands constant vigilance. Thin holiday trading can amplify moves, political risks can escalate rapidly, and technical levels can trigger significant momentum shifts.

The stability observed in some areas, like the US Dollar Index, feels provisional, dependent on the next data point or political development. Investors must navigate a landscape where traditional correlations can fracture under stress, and localised political events can have outsized global financial repercussions.

The coming weeks will test whether the current market structure can absorb these pressures or if the underlying tensions will coalesce into a broader reassessment of risk across multiple asset classes. The path forward hinges on the interplay between political resolution, central bank communication, and the resilience of technical support levels holding firm against waves of selling pressure.

 

Source: https://e27.co/global-markets-navigate-political-fault-lines-as-technical-rebound-meets-institutional-crosscurrents-20250902/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j