April 7th, 2026

Bitcoin’s US$70K rejection was no accident: What the charts say about tonight’s Iran decision

Investors across asset classes find themselves holding their breath as they await a critical 8:00 p.m. ET deadline set by the United States regarding the ongoing conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. This geopolitical flashpoint casts a long shadow over trading sessions, creating an environment where relief rallies in digital assets clash with the looming threat of military escalation. The market mood remains fragile, with traders balancing the hope for a diplomatic resolution against the very real possibility of a devastating strike on Iranian infrastructure that could reshape global energy supplies and risk appetite for months to come.

In the cryptocurrency sector, the narrative centres on a failed attempt to sustain momentum. Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the psychologically significant US$70,000 level on Monday, fuelled by a wave of short liquidations totalling over US$145 million as bearish traders scrambled to exit their positions. That optimism proved short-lived. By Tuesday morning, the leading digital asset had retreated to approximately US$68,765, marking a 0.7 per cent decline as sellers stepped in to test support levels following the rejection at the US$70,000 mark. This pullback occurs despite a glimmer of institutional confidence, evidenced by US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recording roughly US$22.3 million in net inflows last week. These inflows suggest that while short-term traders remain skittish, larger institutional players are beginning to stabilise their positions and view current levels as an accumulation opportunity.

The technical picture for Bitcoin remains mixed, offering both hope and caution. Indicators such as the Weekly MACD are hinting at a potential bullish cross, a signal that has historically preceded significant upward moves in previous cycles. Immediate overhead resistance remains formidable, sitting firmly between US$73,777 and US$75,000. Breaking through this zone will require substantial buying pressure that the market currently lacks due to the overarching fear of geopolitical instability. This anxiety is quantified in the Fear and Greed Index, which sits at 26, firmly in the Extreme Fear territory. This low sentiment score reflects deep uncertainty regarding how a potential conflict in the Middle East might impact global liquidity and the risk-on nature of crypto assets. Furthermore, the regulatory landscape adds another layer of complexity, with a newly passed provision in the US Senate now mandating that crypto firms collect more user information to combat terrorism financing. This move introduces a long-term compliance burden that could dampen enthusiasm among privacy-focused investors.

While Bitcoin struggles to hold its ground, the broader altcoin market displays a surprising degree of resilience and divergence. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, trades near US$2,126, showing a marginal 0.2 per cent decline as it consolidates within the US$2,100 range. This stability suggests that traders are waiting for a clearer directional signal from Bitcoin before committing capital to the ecosystem. In contrast, other major assets are posting notable gains. XRP has surged 3.8 per cent to reach US$1.34, rebounding strongly from what technical analysts identify as a critical Fibonacci support floor. Similarly, Solana is outperforming the market leaders, posting a 3.1 per cent gain and pushing its price to US$82.09. This recovery for Solana marks a potential turning point after a multi-month bearish trend, indicating that capital may be rotating into high-performance layer-one blockchains that offer faster transaction speeds and lower costs during times of network congestion.

The traditional equity markets tell a different story, one of stubborn optimism in the face of rising energy costs. Major US indices extended their winning streaks, with the S&P 500 climbing 0.44 per cent to 6,611.83. This marks the index’s fourth consecutive session of gains, demonstrating a remarkable ability to look past immediate geopolitical threats. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the charge with a 0.54 per cent increase to 21,996.34, driven by robust gains in the tech sector. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also participated in the rally, adding 0.36 per cent to close at 46,669.88, reflecting moderate but steady gains across industrial and blue-chip stocks. This resilience in equities stands in stark contrast to the nervousness in the crypto market, suggesting that traditional investors may be pricing in a resolution to the Hormuz crisis or are simply too entrenched in the current momentum to exit positions prematurely.

Global markets are also showing signs of recovery, with Asian indices posting strong performances. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rebounded significantly, gaining 2.00 per cent to 25,294.00, a move attributed to easing fears over regional stability. Similarly, India’s Nifty 50 index climbed 1.12 per cent to 22,968.25, finding strong support near the 23,000 level. These gains in Asian markets provide a supportive backdrop for US trading, although the underlying tension regarding energy supplies remains a potent risk factor. The energy sector itself presents a paradox for investors. Crude oil prices have surged to alarming levels, with Brent crude hovering near US$110 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate reaching US$113 per barrel. Traders are actively pricing in what some analysts describe as the worst oil crisis in history, fearing that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz would choke off a significant portion of the world’s seaborne oil trade.

Despite the surge in oil prices and geopolitical tension, gold has failed to act as a reliable safe haven in this specific conflict. The precious metal has fallen approximately 12 per cent since the conflict began in late February and currently trades near US$4,660 per ounce. This decline is largely driven by rising yields and a strengthening US dollar, which reduces the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. The US 10-Year Treasury yield held steady at 4.34 per cent, with bond traders largely expecting the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates through the end of the year to combat the inflationary pressures stemming from the energy shock.

Investors are clearly worried that sustained high energy prices will feed into broader inflation, eroding consumer purchasing power and hurting the growth prospects of retail and leisure companies. The market remains in a state of suspended animation. A failure to reach a deal could trigger the feared Power Plant Day strike, likely causing a wave of panic selling across crypto and equities as investors flee to safety. A diplomatic breakthrough could unleash the pent-up buying pressure visible in the technical indicators, potentially sending Bitcoin back toward its resistance levels and fueling the next leg of the equity rally. Until then, volatility remains the only certainty.

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoins-us70k-rejection-was-no-accident-what-the-charts-say-about-tonights-iran-decision-20260407/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

December 16th, 2025

Anndy Lian: Clear-Minded Choices in a No

In the noisy world of Web3, narratives often speak louder than facts, and new terminology tends to appear faster than technology can meaningfully iterate.

From ICOs to DeFi, from NFTs to RWAs, and now the latest cycle of AI+Crypto—the industry keeps reinventing its vocabulary at a pace that outstrips most people’s ability to grasp the fundamentals behind it.

At its core, Web3 was meant to be built on shared consensus—decentralization, openness, and community-driven development.

Yet as the industry expands at high speed and capital floods in, these once-solid values have been diluted. More and more projects rely on narratives to create perceived value; more people enter Web3 for the “trend,” not the belief; and those who genuinely maintain a sense of community-driven mission have become increasingly rare.

This is precisely why someone like Anndy Lian (@anndylian) stands out.

With a background that spans government advisory roles in Mongolia, a board seat at Hyundai DAC, involvement in national digital strategy, several bestselling books, and cross-cultural influence in the Web3 ecosystem, he could have easily become one of the most “institutionalized” voices in the industry.

But he chose a different path—lonelier, sharper, less popular, yet far more authentic.

He does not worship regulation, chase hype, or seek favor from power. Above all his titles and roles, he insists on holding onto one core identity: someone who still takes the original spirit of Web3 seriously.

And such insistence has become rare.

Guest Profile

Anndy Lian is a blockchain expert specializing in government collaboration, having served as a Web3 and digitalization advisor in Korea, Singapore, Mongolia, and other countries.
He is the bestselling author of Blockchain Revolution 2030, NFT: From Zero to Hero, and more, covering policy, industry, and public education.
An active investor and board member for multiple companies, he focuses on early-stage projects, infrastructure, and global digital-economy development.
With nearly 200,000 followers on X, he is among Singapore’s most influential Web3 thinkers and content creators.

█ “Decentralization in Web3 Has Long Been Dead.”

For years, Anndy’s work unfolded inside government meeting rooms.

Around 2017, as many countries began exploring digital governance, he joined discussions on regulatory frameworks in Singapore, Korea, Mongolia, and others—sitting at the same table as policymakers debating how they should interpret Web3.

This proximity gave him a rare view of the logic behind regulation at a national level:

Financial powerhouses ask how Web3 can merge into their existing systems.
Emerging countries ask whether blockchain can strengthen infrastructure.
And most regulatory frameworks, at their core, exist to protect existing capital.

“Regulation will come—and it will definitely come. But the rules set by governments mostly protect the wealthy,” he says.

It’s one of his most direct, and most candid, judgments.

Years of institutional experience didn’t make him trust power more—it made him understand it more deeply: how it operates, how it shapes markets, how it influences narratives.

This led him to a clear conclusion:

“Crypto needs regulation, but it should not be governed by governments or centralized authorities. It needs a set of trustworthy rules.”

Behind this statement lies both vigilance toward power and loyalty to Web3’s original intent.

Which is also why he ultimately said:

“Decentralization in Web3 has long been dead.”

This is not pessimism. It is a sober acknowledgment of how power structures work in the real world.

Paradoxically, this clarity is what strengthens his belief that someone must continue to keep a distance from power—and stay close to the community and the everyday users that keep Web3 alive.

█ Finding Real Value Among the Ruins of Narratives

Viewed across time, Web3 follows a familiar cycle:

Narrative emerges → Hype inflates → Capital rushes in → Crowd frenzy → Logic collapses → Story dissolves.

ICO, DeFi, NFTs, GameFi, RWA—none have escaped this pattern.

Anndy does not oppose new narratives.

He opposes replacing facts with narratives.

On the current hype around RWA, he offers a viewpoint many find uncomfortable:

“If a real-estate developer is doing well, they don’t need to go on-chain.

If they’re doing poorly, going on-chain won’t make anyone buy.

Much of RWA is a metaphysical story.”

On NFTs, he is equally blunt:

“Aside from art, most NFT structures are built for extracting money.”

Yet he is not anti-narrative; he simply understands that long-term value never comes from emotional surges—it comes from capabilities.

If he had to name the capabilities that will define the next decade of Web3, they would be:

1. AI + Blockchain: The Engine of Next-Generation Consensus

He believes the structure of Web4 is already taking shape:

AI determines consensus
Blockchain provides the foundation
Humans reduce subjective control
Governance shifts from organizations to models

“I trust code and AI more than ever—and I’ve become more cautious about trusting humans.”

This is not only a technical forecast—it is a governance philosophy.

2. Prediction Markets + Oracle Networks: The Undervalued Infrastructure

Prediction markets are not simply “bets on the future”—they support risk management, asset pricing, social consensus, and financial products.

Oracles, meanwhile, are the gateway through which all off-chain data enters blockchain systems.

“They are not just sectors—they are long-term, foundational capabilities.”

In other words, they are cross-cycle assets.

3. Privacy: The Future Default of All Chains

He believes the privacy narrative may be short-lived, but privacy as a capability will be long-lasting.

“Privacy will not become one big sector—but it will become the default of every chain.”

Like the security module of an operating system: not sexy, but absolutely essential.

His investment philosophy therefore reduces to one simple question:

“Can this survive for a decade?”

█ While Industry Leaders Talk About the Future, He Talks About the Present

On stage, the industry loves speaking in future tense:

projects talk ecosystems, VCs talk cycles, experts talk trends.

But for Anndy, evaluating a project is surprisingly simple—even blunt:

“If a project doesn’t have a real community of at least 500 users, I won’t touch it.”

In an industry supported by PPTs, roadmaps, and press releases, this is almost a form of rebellion.

What he cannot tolerate are projects with:

Zero product
Zero users
Zero real business

Yet still packaging themselves as “the next revolution.”

He only looks at three things:

Does the technology actually work?
Do real users exist?
Has the community formed genuine consensus?

He avoids the lofty conversations of industry elites, but willingly spends time answering questions from retail users.

This isn’t sentimentality—it is a return to where Web3 should have always belonged: the people and the community.

█ Epilogue: The Weight of Being Clear-Minded

In Web3, stories are easier to construct than systems, and trends are easier to chase than value.

But when the tide recedes, what remains are not the loudest voices, but the clearest ones.

Anndy has crossed policy rooms, capital circles, corporate boards, and grassroots communities—yet he has never become polished or complacent.

Instead, his boundaries have only grown sharper:

No pandering.

No avoidance.

No embellishment.

No compromise.

He critiques false narratives because he believes in real value.

He questions regulation because he understands power.

He avoids the limelight yet walks with the users.

He knows decentralization is painfully difficult, yet still believes technology should make the world fairer.

This is not radicalism—it is clarity.

Not rebellion—but a quiet guardianship of the industry’s core.

The noise will continue. Narratives will rotate. Illusions will return.

But clarity will remain rare.

And because it is rare, it matters even more.

Source: https://www.me.news/contents/251407

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

December 11th, 2025

Fed cuts rates but crypto plunges: The liquidity trap no one’s talking about

The market rally following the Federal Reserve’s third consecutive 25 basis point interest rate cut of 2025 appears, at first glance, to signal renewed optimism across traditional asset classes. Equities responded positively, with the Dow Jones rising 1.05 per cent, the S&P 500 gaining 0.67 per cent, and the Nasdaq closing up 0.33 per cent. Bond yields retreated in tandem, with the 10-year US Treasury yield falling more than three basis points to 4.15 per cent and the two-year yield dropping over seven basis points to 3.54 per cent.

The dollar weakened broadly, especially against the yen, which gained ground as markets priced in a potential Bank of Japan rate hike in December. Even commodities reflected a cautious optimism, with Brent crude ticking up 0.44 per cent to US$62.21 per barrel amid heightened geopolitical tensions, and gold climbing 0.7 per cent to US$4236.57 per ounce as a defensive hedge.

Beneath this surface calm, the cryptocurrency market tells a very different story. Bitcoin and the broader digital asset complex declined by 2.82 per cent over the past 24 hours, extending a 14.1 per cent monthly drawdown. The Fed’s latest policy manoeuvre, which also included an announcement of US$40 billion in monthly Treasury purchases commencing December 12, effectively a stealth quantitative easing program, failed to ignite bullish sentiment in crypto.

Instead, the market interpreted the move not as a bold affirmation of economic strength, but as a reactive response to deteriorating growth prospects and mounting stagflationary pressures. This perception has triggered a significant reallocation of risk within crypto, where investors are abandoning speculative altcoins in favor of Bitcoin’s relative stability, pushing Bitcoin dominance to 58.54 per cent, a 30-day increase of 1.77 percentage points.

The disconnect between traditional markets and crypto hinges on liquidity expectations, leverage dynamics, and the unique structural vulnerabilities of digital asset markets at this point in the cycle. Unlike equities, which benefit from long-standing institutional infrastructure and predictable seasonal flows, crypto markets operate in a more volatile, sentiment-driven ecosystem that is acutely sensitive to shifts in macro liquidity, especially near year-end.

Analysts such as Adam from Greeks.live have highlighted the historical tendency for crypto liquidity to dry up in the final weeks of the calendar year. This seasonal tightening amplifies any macro uncertainty, turning minor corrections into cascading liquidations when leverage is high.

And leverage was indeed high. Over the past 24 hours alone, US$94 million in long positions were liquidated in Bitcoin markets, with 61 per cent of those forced closures hitting leveraged longs. Total open interest across crypto derivatives markets contracted by 4.34 per cent, while perpetual funding rates, though nominally positive at +0.0023 per cent, failed to provide meaningful price support.

The US$1.25 trillion in daily derivatives volume, a 14.3 per cent increase day-over-day, did not reflect fresh accumulation or conviction buying, but rather panic-driven unwinding by retail traders who had overextended during Bitcoin’s November rally. This dynamic underscores a fragile market structure, one that rallies on euphoria but collapses rapidly when sentiment shifts, especially in the absence of strong institutional demand.

The exodus from altcoins further illustrates this risk-off posture. Tokens like Solana and Sui, which had previously benefited from speculative inflows during periods of macro complacency, dropped between five and eight per cent as investors rotated into Bitcoin. The Altcoin Season Index now stands at just 17, deep in “Bitcoin Season” territory. This flight to safety within the crypto ecosystem mirrors broader macro trends, where institutions are trimming high-beta exposures ahead of anticipated volatility in 2026.

Notably, the 30-day correlation between crypto and the Nasdaq-100 has climbed to +0.48, while Bitcoin’s 24-hour correlation with the index sits at +0.39. These figures confirm that crypto is no longer operating in a vacuum; it is increasingly tethered to the same macro anxieties that drive equity markets, particularly around interest rate trajectories, inflation persistence, and growth sustainability.

From a strategic standpoint, this environment demands a reassessment of traditional crypto narratives. For years, proponents argued that digital assets would decouple from legacy markets and serve as an alternative store of value or inflation hedge. The data from this latest cycle suggests the opposite. Crypto’s fate remains tightly bound to US monetary policy and risk sentiment.

The Fed’s decision to cut rates while simultaneously launching asset purchases should, in theory, have flooded the system with liquidity and supported risk assets. Markets read between the lines. The fact that the Fed felt compelled to act while growth indicators remain ambiguous signals underlying weakness, not strength. In such conditions, capital gravitates toward assets with the clearest fundamentals and deepest liquidity, which, within crypto, means Bitcoin and little else.

Looking ahead, two critical levels will determine whether this selloff evolves into a deeper correction or merely a year-end consolidation. First, Bitcoin must hold the US$89,500 support level. A decisive break below this threshold could trigger cascading margin calls, especially given the elevated leveraged positioning still present in the market. Second, the ETH/BTC ratio, currently at 0.0214 and nearing 2025 lows, will serve as a barometer for altcoin sentiment. A sustained rebound above this level could indicate that risk appetite is returning to the broader ecosystem.

The central question now is whether January’s traditional “risk-on” seasonal patterns, historically a strong period for crypto due to post-holiday capital reallocation and tax-loss harvesting reversals, will be powerful enough to override the macro headwinds building for 2026.

With the Fed Funds Target Rate now at 3.50 to 3.75 per cent and further cuts anticipated in the second and third quarters of 2026, bringing the rate down to 3.25 per cent by year-end, the path of monetary policy appears accommodative on paper. If inflation proves sticky or growth falters further, even these cuts may not suffice to restore confidence in risk assets.

In this context, the crypto market’s reaction to the latest Fed move reflects not just short-term technical weakness, but a deeper reassessment of its role in the global financial system. As institutional adoption matures, digital assets are shedding their reputation as a purely speculative frontier and becoming subject to the same macro forces that govern traditional markets.

That integration brings legitimacy, but also vulnerability. For investors navigating this transition, the key will be distinguishing between structural value and cyclical noise, and recognising that in times of uncertainty, even within a decentralised ecosystem, capital seeks safety first, innovation second.

Source: https://e27.co/fed-cuts-rates-but-crypto-plunges-the-liquidity-trap-no-ones-talking-about-20251211/