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No CPI, no confidence: How data paralysis is fueling crypto’s November slide

No CPI, no confidence: How data paralysis is fueling crypto’s November slide

The macro landscape this week sits in a state of suspended animation, defined less by new developments than by their absence. At the heart of this inertia is the ongoing US government shutdown, which began on October 1 and has now stretched into its sixth week, becoming the longest in the nation’s history. This institutional paralysis has created a critical data void, most notably delaying the release of the October Consumer Price Index report that was originally scheduled for Thursday, November 13.

The White House has even conceded that this key inflation gauge for October may never be officially released, leaving a permanent blind spot in the economic record. This vacuum of information forces markets to anchor their expectations on whatever data trickles out, elevating the importance of tonight’s release of weekly initial jobless claims, which are expected to show a figure of 218,000 for the week ending November 8.

In this context of uncertainty, risk sentiment has turned cautious. US equities closed mixed on Wednesday, with the Dow showing modest strength while the tech-heavy Nasdaq declined, a divergence that speaks to a subtle but important rotation within the market. This caution was also evident in the Treasury market, where yields edged lower as investors welcomed tentative signs of progress in Congress toward a resolution that would reopen the government. The 10-year yield’s retreat to 4.06 per cent reflects this flight to safety and a renewed hope for a political compromise. The US Dollar Index, for its part, remained largely flat, closing at 99.47, signaling that traders are in a holding pattern, unwilling to make significant directional bets until the political fog lifts and the next concrete piece of economic data arrives.

The crypto market, however, has been unable to insulate itself from this broader macro malaise. It has fallen a further 0.56 per cent over the last 24 hours, a move that extends a more painful 11.7 per cent monthly decline. This persistent weakness is not a single-factor event but rather a perfect storm of three distinct, reinforcing pressures: a clear pattern of institutional profit-taking, a sharp contagion event in the derivatives market, and an uncomfortably tight correlation with the performance of US tech stocks.

The first of these bearish forces is institutional retrenchment. While spot Bitcoin ETFs have been a major structural support for the market since their launch, their influence has waned in recent weeks. Data from trackers shows a clear trend of capital flight, with the total assets under management for these funds dropping from a recent high of around US$140.7 billion to US$138.9 billion over a single week, a decline of 8.7 per cent. This outflow is more than a simple portfolio rebalance; it signals a deeper shift in sentiment among large, sophisticated players. As the 10x Research CEO warned, a sense of fatigue has set in, driven by Bitcoin’s notable underperformance in 2025 relative to both the soaring price of gold and the resilient gains in the tech-heavy Nasdaq. For institutions that bought the post-ETF approval rally, the current environment offers a compelling reason to trim their exposure and lock in what gains remain.

The second pressure point is a stark reminder of the fragility embedded in the crypto ecosystem’s leverage. The US$63 million liquidation cascade on the Popcat memecoin, centered on the Hyperliquid exchange, was not an isolated incident but a canary in the coal mine. This single event triggered a broader wave of deleveraging across the entire crypto market, evidenced by a 14.7 per cent drop in total open interest. This is the process of overextended, speculative positions, particularly in the volatile altcoin sector, being forcibly closed out, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of selling that spills over into the entire asset class. The subsequent cooling of perpetual funding rates, which fell by 41 per cent in just 24 hours, confirms a sharp and sudden reduction in speculative appetite. The market is in a defensive crouch.

The third and perhaps most inescapable headwind is crypto’s persistent and powerful link to traditional equities, specifically the Nasdaq-100. The market’s 24-hour price action has shown a correlation of 0.88 with the Nasdaq-100, its strongest link to the index since March 2025. This statistic is a powerful testament to the fact that, for all its claims of being a separate, uncorrelated asset, crypto remains a risk asset first and foremost. Its fate is now inextricably tied to the same macro forces that move the markets for Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. Therefore, any pre-market weakness in the Nasdaq, such as the 1.2 per cent drop seen on Thursday, driven by fears over sticky inflation and a more hawkish Federal Reserve, will inevitably be mirrored in a retreat across the crypto board.

In conclusion, the market’s current malaise is a confluence of its own internal dynamics and the external macroeconomic environment. The derivatives market is in a state of recovery from its recent squeeze, with perpetual funding rates having turned slightly positive again at plus 0.0014 per cent. However, this technical stabilisation is overshadowed by a collapse in market confidence, as evidenced by the Fear and Greed Index plunging into the Extreme Fear territory at a reading of 25.

The path forward is clouded by the absence of the CPI data, but its eventual release or its continued absence will be a critical test. The key question on every trader’s mind is whether Bitcoin can hold the critical psychological and technical support level of US$100,000 if the October inflation data, when it finally emerges, shows a year-over-year increase that exceeds the 3.4 per cent threshold, which would likely cement a risk-off posture across all markets.

Until then, all assets remain chained to this unprecedented political and data-driven uncertainty.

Source: https://e27.co/no-cpi-no-confidence-how-data-paralysis-is-fueling-cryptos-november-slide-20251113/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Gold slumps, oil tanks, Bitcoin hangs by a thread: The global market meltdown no one saw coming

Gold slumps, oil tanks, Bitcoin hangs by a thread: The global market meltdown no one saw coming

Economists projected a modest addition of 75,000 jobs, barely edging out the 73,000 from July, with whispers of a downward revision to the prior month’s figures adding an extra layer of uncertainty. This report carried significant weight, as it could sway the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates later in the month, especially amid signs of a cooling labour market.

Initial jobless claims surged to 237,000 for the week ending August 30, marking the highest level since June and underscoring a gradual softening in employment trends. Traders positioned themselves defensively, knowing that a weak print might fuel expectations for aggressive rate cuts. At the same time, a stronger-than-expected number could dampen hopes for monetary easing and pressure risk assets.

US equities managed a solid rebound on September 4, with the S&P 500 climbing 0.8 per cent to close at a fresh record high of around 6,506 points, buoyed by robust July services activity data that exceeded forecasts. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.0 per cent, reflecting renewed enthusiasm in technology stocks, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average matched the S&P’s gain at 0.8 per cent.

This rally provided a brief respite from recent volatility, as market participants digested the implications of a resilient services sector amid broader economic slowdown signals. Investors appeared to interpret the data as supportive of a soft landing scenario, where growth moderates without tipping into recession, though the looming payrolls report tempered any excessive exuberance.

Bond markets also drew attention, with Treasuries attracting bids that pushed yields lower. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield dropped six basis points to 4.161 per cent, flirting with levels not seen in over a year and signalling investor flight to safety ahead of key data. Shorter-dated two-year yields hovered near one-year lows, highlighting expectations for Federal Reserve action. This movement in yields reflected broader concerns about economic momentum, as lower rates typically encourage borrowing but also hint at underlying weaknesses in growth prospects.

Currency and commodity markets offered mixed signals. The US Dollar Index strengthened by 0.2 per cent to settle at 98.35, benefiting from the relative stability in US data compared to global counterparts. Gold, often viewed as a haven during uncertain times, slipped 0.4 per cent after an eight-day winning streak, trading around US$3,552 per ounce as some profit-taking emerged amid the dollar’s firmness.

Brent crude oil declined 1.0 per cent to US$68 per barrel, pressured by ongoing demand worries and ample supply, though OPEC’s potential output decisions loomed as a wildcard. These shifts underscored a market grappling with inflation fears receding but growth risks mounting.

In Asia, equity benchmarks largely trended lower on September 5, dragged by underperformance in major hubs. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 1.1 per cent, while the Shanghai Composite dropped nearly two per cent, reflecting investor unease over domestic economic stimulus measures and lingering trade tensions. Other markets like Tokyo and Seoul bucked the trend with modest gains, but the overall tone remained subdued, influenced by the anticipation of US data that could ripple through global trade and capital flows.

Amid this backdrop, the debut of American Bitcoin Corp on the Nasdaq captured headlines, intertwining politics, family business, and cryptocurrency in a way that raised eyebrows across Wall Street. The Bitcoin mining company, partially owned by Donald Trump’s sons Eric and Donald Jr., saw its shares surge as high as US$14.52 before closing up 16.5 per cent at US$8.04, valuing the firm at billions and the brothers’ 20 per cent stake at over US$1.5 billion.

Eric Trump, serving as executive vice president of the Trump Organisation, appeared at Bitcoin Asia 2025 in Hong Kong, further spotlighting the family’s pivot from real estate to digital assets. This move expanded the Trump empire into cryptocurrency, with the company planning to mine and hold Bitcoin while raising funds for growth, including partnerships such as one with Hut 8.

From my perspective, this development strikes me as a potent mix of opportunity and peril. The Trump family’s foray into Bitcoin aligns with a broader trend where influential figures leverage their platforms to enter high-growth sectors, potentially accelerating mainstream adoption. It also invites scrutiny over conflicts of interest, especially given the administration’s crypto-friendly policies that could directly benefit such ventures.

Critics point to the risk of blurred lines between public office and private gain, a concern amplified by the family’s history in real estate and now extended to volatile digital assets. While supporters hail it as innovative entrepreneurship, I see it as emblematic of how political dynasties adapt to new economic frontiers, often at the expense of transparency. The stock’s volatile debut, doubling in value before pulling back, mirrors the crypto market’s own unpredictability, and it will be fascinating to watch if this boosts or burdens Bitcoin’s legitimacy in traditional finance circles.

Turning to Bitcoin itself, the cryptocurrency traded near US$110,700 on September 5, clinging just above the short-term holder realised price of US$107,600. This critical support level gauges the average entry point for newer investors. A rare signal emerged on Binance, where the Bitcoin-to-stablecoin ratio approached parity at 1, a threshold that historically signaled major cycle bottoms, as seen in March 2025 when it preceded a rally from US$78,000 to US$123,000.

However, the current consolidation phase lacks the deep capitulation of past bottoms, raising doubts about whether this indicates a genuine rebound or merely turbulence ahead. Stablecoin reserves on Binance hit a record US$37.8 billion, suggesting ample liquidity is sidelined and ready to deploy, which could fuel a surge if sentiment shifts.

Longer-term metrics painted a bullish picture despite short-term jitters. The overall realised price stood at US$52,800, with long-term holders’ realised price at US$35,600, indicating firm conviction among seasoned investors. The net unrealised profit/loss ratio hovered at 0.53, firmly in profit territory but below euphoric peaks, implying room for growth without immediate overheating.

A key risk loomed: Bitcoin’s 50-week simple moving average, a reliable trend indicator since 2018, sat near US$95,000. A drop below this level could trigger the cycle’s first bearish signal, potentially leading to prolonged declines akin to the 63 per cent drop in 2018 or the 67 per cent decline in 2022. Bitcoin has held above this average since March 2023; however, its current positioning places it perilously close.

In my view, these signals highlight Bitcoin’s maturation as an asset class, blending technical rigor with on-chain insights that traditional markets envy. The Binance ratio’s reappearance excites me because it underscores crypto’s unique data-driven edge, where exchange flows offer real-time glimpses into capital movements. That said, the absence of capitulation worries me; markets often need pain to purge excess before true bottoms form. If Bitcoin slips below US$95,000, it might test investor resolve.

Still, I suspect that sidelined stablecoins and improving macroeconomic conditions, such as potential Fed cuts, could cap the downside and propel a fourth-quarter rally. September has historically been Bitcoin’s weakest month, averaging negative returns, but 2025’s cycle dynamics, including ETF inflows and political tailwinds, might defy the pattern. Analysts eye US$150,000 by year-end if supports hold, a target that feels ambitious but plausible given the asset’s resilience.

To expand on the labor market dynamics, the August nonfarm payrolls report arrives at a time when other indicators already suggest a deceleration in the economy. For instance, the JOLTS report from earlier in the week showed job openings dipping to their lowest since early 2021, with hires and quits also moderating, signalling reduced churn in the workforce.

Economists attribute this to a normalisation after the post-pandemic hiring frenzy, but persistent weakness could prompt the Fed to accelerate its pivot toward easing. Chair Jerome Powell has emphasised the importance of data dependence, and a subpar jobs number might solidify bets for a 50-basis-point cut at the September meeting, rather than the standard 25-basis-point cut. Markets currently price in about a 40 per cent chance of the larger move, up from negligible levels a month ago, reflecting how quickly sentiment can shift.

Equities’ Thursday rally built on gains in sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary, with companies like Nvidia and Amazon leading the charge after positive analyst notes on AI demand. The services PMI from ISM came in at 55.7, well above the 52.5 consensus, indicating expansion and alleviating fears of a broader slowdown spilling over from manufacturing.

This divergence between goods and services has characterised the current cycle, with services proving more resilient due to steady consumer spending. However, with personal consumption expenditures showing signs of fatigue amid high interest rates, the sustainability of this strength remains in question.

In the Treasury space, the yield curve’s subtle steepening warrants attention, as the spread between two-year and 10-year notes has widened slightly to around 15 basis points. Historically, an inverted curve precedes recessions, and its gradual normalisation could signal the end of that inversion phase, potentially heralding better growth prospects ahead. Traders also monitored auction results for new debt issuances, which absorbed smoothly despite elevated supply, thanks to foreign demand and domestic institutions seeking duration.

The dollar’s modest uptick occurred against a basket where the euro and yen weakened, the former due to uncertainty over ECB policy and the latter amid the Bank of Japan’s cautious tightening path. Gold’s pullback interrupted a rally driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions, but fundamentals like real yields remaining low support its medium-term appeal. Oil’s slide extended a multi-week downtrend, with inventories building unexpectedly and global demand forecasts revised lower by agencies like the EIA, though Middle East risks provide a floor.

Asian markets’ weakness stemmed partly from China’s ongoing property woes and export slowdown, with recent stimulus announcements falling short of investor hopes for aggressive fiscal support. Hong Kong’s drop amplified regional contagion, as property developers faced renewed selling pressure. In contrast, Japan’s Nikkei edged higher on exporter gains from a weaker yen, illustrating how currency dynamics can offset broader pessimism.

The Trump sons’ Bitcoin venture adds a layer of intrigue to an already politicised crypto landscape. American Bitcoin Corp aims to capitalise on the mining boom, leveraging cheap energy sources and advanced hardware to build a substantial hash rate. Their stake’s valuation surge on debut day highlights the froth in crypto-related stocks, reminiscent of the 2021 bull run when similar firms commanded premium multiples. Eric Trump’s public engagements, including speeches at industry conferences, position the family as advocates for deregulation, aligning with the president’s pro-crypto stance that has included proposals for a national Bitcoin reserve.

This familial involvement raises ethical concerns, as policy decisions regarding digital assets could impact personal holdings. Observers note parallels to past Trump Organisation dealings, where real estate projects benefited from zoning changes or tax incentives.

In the crypto industry, the push for clearer regulations may expedite approvals for mining operations or ETF expansions, indirectly boosting the company’s prospects. Supporters argue it democratises access to Bitcoin wealth, but skeptics see it as another avenue for influence peddling in a lightly regulated space.

Bitcoin’s price action around US$110,700 reflects a tug-of-war between bulls holding the line and bears testing supports. The short-term holder realised price acts as a psychological barrier, where breaches often lead to cascading liquidations. On-chain data from Glassnode shows exchange inflows rising modestly, but not to panic levels, suggesting sellers are tactical rather than capitulatory. The Binance ratio nearing 1 implies balanced reserves, historically a precursor to volatility resolution upward.

The stablecoin buildup on exchanges like Binance indicates a significant amount of “dry powder,” with USDT and USDC accounting for over 90 per cent of holdings. This liquidity could spark a rally if macroeconomic catalysts align, such as a dovish Fed or election outcomes that favour crypto. Long-term holders continue to accumulate, with their cohort’s realised price far below current levels, underscoring the diamond-handed conviction forged through multiple cycles.

The 50-week SMA’s proximity adds technical gravity, as crosses below it have heralded regime shifts. In 2018, the breach preceded a crypto winter amid regulatory crackdowns and macro headwinds. 2022’s drop coincided with FTX’s collapse and rising rates. Today’s environment differs, with institutional adoption via spot ETFs providing a buffer, having absorbed billions in inflows since January. A close below US$95,000 would invalidate the uptrend, but dip buyers might emerge, viewing it as a generational entry point.

My take is that Bitcoin’s narrative has evolved from fringe experiment to portfolio staple, and signals like these reinforce its cyclical nature. The lack of deep fear, as measured by the Fear & Greed Index at neutral 50, suggests more downside potential before a sustainable bottom.

But with halving effects still unfolding and supply growth halved, upward pressure builds organically. Political developments, including the Trump connection, could catalyse sentiment, especially if pro-crypto policies gain traction post-election. I anticipate choppy trading through September, but a breakout above US$120,000 remains feasible by Q4, driven by seasonal patterns and improving fundamentals.

Pulling it all together, today’s market wrap reveals a world on edge, with US strength contrasting Asian weakness and crypto injecting fresh drama via the Trump connection. The payroll data will likely dictate the near-term narrative, but broader trends like softening jobs and yield compression point to a pivotal moment for risk assets.

As someone who has tracked these cycles, I believe the current caution masks underlying opportunities, particularly in Bitcoin, where structural bullishness persists amid tactical risks. Investors should closely watch the US$107,600 level; its defence could spark the next leg up, while a failure might invite a healthy reset.

Regardless, the fusion of politics and markets, as seen in American Bitcoin’s splashy entry, reminds us that finance evolves not in isolation but through bold, sometimes controversial, human endeavours. This interplay will shape portfolios for months to come, demanding vigilance and adaptability from all participants.

 

Source: https://e27.co/gold-slumps-oil-tanks-bitcoin-hangs-by-a-thread-the-global-market-meltdown-no-one-saw-coming-20250905/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

No, NFTs Are Not Dead

No, NFTs Are Not Dead

It’s pretty fashionable to dance on the grave of NFTs these days. Social media abounds with people laughing at the jpegs of zoo animals that sold for thousands of dollars a few years ago. But I’m here to poop that party. Because, I believe NFTs are not only here to stay, but they will kickstart a new era of creative expression, economic efficiency, and digital culture.

Let’s start with some facts. NFTs have been growing in popularity and value in recent years, especially in 2021 and 2022. According to the data from NonFungible.com, the NFT market size reached $10.7 billion in the third quarter of 2021, up from $1.3 billion in the second quarter.

And, while the downturn has been admittedly harsh, there are some exciting trends emerging in recent months. Take generative artwork, which is created by an algorithm or a computer program based on inputs from the artist or the collector, like Art Blocks, which lets users mint unique pieces of art on the Ethereum blockchain, and Otherside, which generates psychedelic portraits of celebrities and historical figures.

Or what about fractionalizing valuable collectibles? This is a process of dividing a rare or expensive NFT into smaller pieces or fractions, which can be traded or owned by multiple people. This allows more people to access and invest in high-value NFTs, which they otherwise could not afford. Examples of fractionalized NFTs are DAO Records, which owns a copy of Wu-Tang Clan’s Once Upon a Time in Shaolin album, and Fractional, which enables anyone to create and trade fractions of any NFT.

And so-called smart money is getting involved. Established companies are creating their own digital collectibles, or collaborating with existing NFT communities. This shows the growing mainstream recognition and adoption of NFTs as a new form of digital expression and engagement.

Take Visa, which bought a CryptoPunk for $150,000, Coca-Cola, which auctioned off four NFTs for charity, and Marvel, which launched its own NFT marketplace for comic book fans. Or my recent project: The Velocity Pass, an exclusive NFT that gives holders access to a series of digital artworks created by world-class artists.

The artworks are inspired by Oracle Red Bull Racing’s RB19 race car and the Formula One World Championship. The Velocity Pass is a limited edition of only 1,000 NFTs and will evolve over the course of the race season, with each new drop reflecting the thrills and spills of each race.

There are four collaborating artists in this series. So far we have revealed works from Rik Oostenbroek, Per Kristian and Erick “Snowfro” Calderon and the last artist will be revealed soon.

For too long, artists have struggled to receive fair compensation for their work in the digital realm. NFTs offer a lifeline, enabling creators to retain ownership and receive royalties for their art in perpetuity. This paradigm shift empowers artists to break free from the shackles of traditional intermediaries, putting the power and profits back into the hands of those who create.

Furthermore, NFTs have the potential to revolutionize the way we think about ownership and property rights. With blockchain technology at their core, NFTs provide indisputable proof of ownership, eliminating the need for cumbersome paper trails and legal disputes.

This has far-reaching implications beyond the art world, from real estate to intellectual property rights. Imagine a world where disputes over ownership are virtually nonexistent, where property rights are as secure as the blockchain itself.

“The obituary for NFTs is premature at best and, at worst, a misunderstanding of the transformative power of these digital tokens. The evidence is clear: NFTs are reshaping our concept of value, ownership, and creativity” – Anndy Lian, head of partnerships at Bybit.

 

 

Source: https://blog.bybit.com/en-US/post/no-nfts-are-not-dead-blt723d571c62a7a08b/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j