Tag Archives: now

Could a Hot Inflation Print Send Bitcoin and Ethereum Into Freefall?

Could a Hot Inflation Print Send Bitcoin and Ethereum Into Freefall?

The cryptocurrency market is going through a difficult stretch. In my view, this selloff is not a story about broken technology or failed projects. It is a story about how tightly digital assets now track the mood of traditional finance. Bitcoin has fallen 2.49% to $81,755.72 in 24 hours. That move underperforms a flat S&P 500. At the same time, Bitcoin’s 24-hour correlation with the S&P 500 sits at a strong 81%. That correlation tells me the current pressure comes mainly from macro forces rather than from crypto-native news. Ethereum has suffered even more. It dropped 4.34% to $2,434.26 in the same period, a decline that outpaced Bitcoin’s fall and underscores its role as a high-beta bet on the broader crypto market. When a major digital asset moves in lockstep with equities, traders should pay close attention to inflation data, bond yields, and central bank expectations. Those forces now matter as much as any blockchain upgrade or adoption headline.

The first major force behind this retreat is institutional selling. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $681 million in net outflows for the week ending October 9. That reversal ended a 3-week inflow streak. This shift matters because these funds had become a reliable source of demand. Large investors are now showing caution as Treasury yields rise and inflation worries persist. A steady buyer has become a seller, and that shift weakens the market’s foundation. I will be watching daily ETF flow data to see if this pressure continues or fades. If outflows persist, Bitcoin will struggle to build any durable bounce. If flows stabilize, the market can at least find a floor. The ETF channel is now one of the clearest windows into institutional sentiment, and it currently shows fear.

A second force is a leverage flush. The decline triggered forced selling across derivatives markets. In the past 24 hours, liquidations wiped out more than $406 million in leveraged long positions. That mechanical unwind creates a cascade. Forced selling generates more sell orders, which push prices lower. This pattern is common after a rally. Crowded-in bullish bets get wiped out, and the market cools off violently. The key signal to watch is funding rates and open interest. When those metrics stabilize, it suggests the market has cleared excess leverage. Until then, the risk of more sudden drops remains high. Traders who used too much borrowed capital have learned a painful lesson. The market rarely rewards one-sided positioning for long.

Ethereum faced an even sharper version of this derivatives-driven pain. A total of $115.19 million in ETH long positions were forced to close within 24 hours. That figure accounted for the largest share of a total crypto liquidation of $488.61 million. The forced selling from overextended longs turned a moderate pullback into a steep decline. High leverage acted as fuel. When stop-losses triggered, they accelerated the move lower. I will be watching the aggregate funding rate. A move deeper into negative territory would signal that long unwinding continues. That would keep Ethereum under pressure in the near term. For now, the derivatives market remains the main driver of ETH price action. Spot buyers have not stepped in with enough force to absorb the supply.

The broader backdrop adds another layer of anxiety. No clear Ethereum-specific catalyst appeared. The move was part of a sector-wide retreat. Major altcoins like Solana and XRP fell by similar amounts. Investors are cautious ahead of the U.S. CPI report on October 14. They are also reacting to roughly $681 million in net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs last week. Rising 10-year Treasury yields toward 5.3% add to the risk-off mood. Ethereum now trades as a high-beta risk asset. It responds strongly to shifts in market sentiment and macro liquidity. That reality means crypto traders cannot ignore traditional inflation data. A single CPI print can change the direction of the entire market within minutes.

The near-term outlook for Bitcoin hinges on the October 14 CPI report. A favorable reading could help Bitcoin hold the $81,300-$82,000 support band. That outcome could open a path toward reclaiming $84,300. A hotter print risks restarting ETF outflows and a deeper test of support near $79,000. Bitcoin is in a holding pattern. Its immediate trend will be driven by traditional macroeconomic data, not by crypto-specific developments. I will watch how the market reacts at $82,000 immediately after the CPI release. A strong bounce from that level would signal that buyers still see value. A clean break below it would confirm that sellers remain in control.

Ethereum’s technical picture is more fragile. The asset has broken below its 50-day moving average near $2,558 and key support at $2,500. The $2,360 to $2,420 zone is now critical daily demand. If ETH holds this area, a relief rally toward $2,560 is possible. Oversold conditions support that view. The 7-day RSI sits at 26.64, a reading that often precedes a short-term bounce when macro fears ease. A decisive break below $2,360 could trigger another wave of selling. The next major support cluster sits around the 100-day moving average near $2,240. A hot CPI print that breaks support risks a drop toward $2,220-$2,280. Ethereum needs a macro tailwind to reverse its current course. Without one, rallies will likely remain short-lived.

My overall view is bearish for the near term. Bitcoin is experiencing a withdrawal of institutional capital and a flush of overleveraged positions. Ethereum faces the same pressures, but with even greater intensity, due to its derivatives exposure. The macro environment remains tense. Sentiment is weak. At the same time, the market is testing important levels. Bitcoin must hold above $81,300 after the CPI data. Ethereum must reclaim and hold above $2,500. If those levels fail, another wave of defensive selling could follow. If they hold, a relief bounce is possible. The October 14 inflation report will decide which path the market takes. I will keep watching ETF flows, funding rates, and the reaction at those key price zones.

 

Source: https://e27.co/could-a-hot-inflation-print-send-bitcoin-and-ethereum-into-freefall-20261013/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Bitcoin and Ethereum just flushed US$1.44B in shorts and the real test begins now

Bitcoin and Ethereum just flushed US$1.44B in shorts and the real test begins now

The digital asset landscape navigates a critical transition phase. Investors watch an ecosystem digesting massive recent gains as they search for the next directional catalyst. The broader cryptocurrency sector recorded a modest gain of 0.92 per cent over the last 24 hours. This steady upward movement reflects a maturing environment where traditional finance dictates the pace.

My perspective on this current structure highlights a profound shift in underlying demand dynamics. Pure hype no longer drives valuations. Traditional financial mechanisms and macroeconomic policies now anchor the leading networks. This consolidation period offers a necessary cooling-off mechanism after historic surges. Participants now monitor specific technical thresholds and upcoming legislative events.

Bitcoin leads this consolidation effort, slightly underperforming the broader sector. The premier digital asset registered a 0.65 per cent increase, reaching US$77,458.78. This minor uptick represents a direct continuation of last week’s rally. The primary engine driving this sustained upward momentum remains the relentless institutional appetite flowing through spot exchange-traded funds. These vehicles absorbed a staggering US$1.92 billion in net inflows last week.

This figure marks the strongest weekly capital influx in 10 months. BlackRock commanded a massive share of participation in traditional finance. Their specific fund attracted over US$1.33 billion in fresh money. This persistent buying establishes a formidable demand floor. Large financial entities continuously absorb selling pressure from early adopters. This dynamic fundamentally shifts the supply-and-demand equilibrium toward higher valuations.

The derivatives sector further illustrates this shift in structure. Traders experienced a historic short squeeze between August 19 and August 21. Exchanges forcibly closed out US$1.44 billion in short positions. Such massive liquidations typically signal extreme volatility. The current environment shows remarkable resilience. Total liquidation volume over the last 24 hours dropped 10 per cent to US$95.91M. This sharp decline indicates that leveraged participants have largely flushed out their risky positions.

The ecosystem now digests the previous volatility without the threat of cascading margin calls. Bitcoin is currently consolidating comfortably above its 200-day simple moving average at US$68,980. The relative strength index sits at 80.2. While this reading technically indicates an overbought condition, it simultaneously confirms the strength of the prevailing bullish trend.

The immediate trajectory of Bitcoin hinges entirely on its ability to defend crucial technical zones. The asset must remain above the US$72,879 mark. This valuation aligns perfectly with the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement threshold. A successful defence of this area will likely trigger a renewed attempt to breach the recent swing high of US$79,463. Analysts often round this target to US$79,500.

A failure to hold this critical floor invites downside risk. Bears could push the valuation toward the 50 per cent Fibonacci zone at US$70,845. A complete breakdown might trigger a deeper correction toward US$69,000. Traders must also watch the political calendar. The United States Senate scheduled a crucial procedural vote on the crypto market structure Clarity Act for September 15. This legislative event could provide the exact regulatory clarity the ecosystem desperately craves.

Ethereum mirrors this institutional narrative while exhibiting unique macroeconomic characteristics. The second-largest network climbed 1.43 per cent to trade at US$2,448.87. This performance extends a strong weekly surge. Ethereum demonstrated a 94 per cent positive correlation with gold over the past week. This close relationship suggests that traditional safe-haven assets and digital protocols share the same macroeconomic drivers. Spot exchange-traded funds once again provide the foundational buying pressure.

These Ethereum investment vehicles recorded their strongest weekly inflows of 2026. The funds absorbed nearly US$700 million in fresh money for the week ending August 21. Friday saw US$185 million flow into these products. This direct participation in traditional finance confirms deep confidence in the underlying utility beyond mere speculative trading.

The macroeconomic environment also played a vital role in igniting this rally. The United States Treasury announced an expansion of liquidity support buybacks on August 19. This policy decision directly boosted risk assets and provided the initial impulse for the recent surge. Technical indicators suggest buyers might need a brief pause to digest these rapid gains.

The 14-day relative strength index for Ethereum currently rests at 78.15. This elevated reading clearly signals overbought conditions. The rapid pace of recent gains often necessitates sideways movement to allow technical indicators to reset. Buyers now test whether this protocol can sustain its upward trajectory despite these stretched readings.

The near-term path for Ethereum requires a decisive breakout above immediate resistance. The asset recently faced rejection at the US$2,500 barrier. Bulls must push the daily closing valuation convincingly above this ceiling. A successful breach opens the path toward the 127.2 per cent Fibonacci extension target at US$2,745. Buyers must fiercely defend the US$2,375 floor.

This valuation aligns with the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement zone. A drop below this threshold would invalidate the immediate bullish structure. Developers also have a major catalyst on the horizon. The ecosystem scheduled a major Public Testnet Upgrade for September 2026. This technological milestone will likely draw significant attention and money back to the protocol.

My view interprets these parallel movements as a clear sign of ecosystem maturation. Both leading networks now rely heavily on traditional financial inflows and macroeconomic liquidity. Modest daily gains reflect a necessary pause following historic discoveries. Institutional money provides a solid foundation that limits downside volatility.

The sector now enters a defined consolidation phase with mapped risk and reward parameters. Participants must watch the crucial floors and await the upcoming legislative and technological catalysts. The ability of these assets to hold their ground during this quiet period will determine the magnitude of the next major cycle.

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-and-ethereum-just-flushed-us1-44b-in-shorts-and-the-real-test-begins-now-20260824/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Bitcoin gained 7.26% to reach exactly US$69,350.36 and now faces a critical test at the US$70,000 psychological barrier

Bitcoin gained 7.26% to reach exactly US$69,350.36 and now faces a critical test at the US$70,000 psychological barrier

Cryptocurrency market capitalisation expanded 7.22 per cent to reach an impressive US$2.36T. This aggressive upward trajectory stems from a rare convergence of political validation and macroeconomic liquidity injections. I view this specific rally as a definitive structural transition for digital assets. We no longer observe a speculative niche asset class reacting solely to internal industry developments.

Global capital now treats these networks as legitimate macroeconomic instruments. The undeniable 91 per cent correlation between the broader crypto sector and gold highlights this transition. Institutional and retail investors clearly position both asset classes as premier hedges against relentless currency debasement.

The 90.5 per cent correlation specifically tying Bitcoin and Ethereum to precious metals further cements this narrative. The fundamental narrative strengthens by the day, while the sheer velocity of this price action introduces severe immediate risks.

The primary ignition switch for this historic rally occurred on August 19, 2026. President Trump hosted a dedicated cryptocurrency summit at the White House and delivered a stunning policy pivot. He explicitly stated that the federal government considers purchasing large amounts of Bitcoin for the national reserve. The president also urged Congress to immediately pass the Crypto Clarity Act to establish firm regulatory boundaries.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission confirmed active efforts to integrate decentralised platforms such as Hyperliquid into the domestic legal framework. This direct political endorsement fundamentally alters the risk calculus for institutional allocators. Regulatory uncertainty suppressed institutional capital deployment for years. The executive branch now actively courts the industry. This confidence shock immediately triggered aggressive buying across major networks.

Cautious market participants no longer fear sudden enforcement actions, and they now anticipate favourable legislative tailwinds. Lawmakers previously treated digital finance with extreme scepticism. The current administration embraces the technological innovation driving this sector.

A massive shift in domestic fiscal policy provided immense fuel for the ongoing fire. The United States Treasury announced a surprising expansion of its bond buyback programme. Officials plan to increase the size of these operations for extended securities by 100 per cent from US$2B to US$4B starting September 9. This unprecedented intervention aggressively suppresses extended borrowing costs.

The 30-year Treasury yield plummeted in response. Lower bond yields directly reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding alternative vehicles. I interpret this Treasury manoeuvre as a massive liquidity injection that disproportionately benefits high-beta risk instruments. Traders view this policy shift as a clear signal of underlying fiscal stress.

The government artificially suppresses yields to manage debt burdens, and smart money flees to scarce instruments. Decentralised digital networks perfectly capture this urgent flight to absolute scarcity and verifiable monetary hardness. Fixed income markets struggle to absorb the sheer volume of new debt issuance.

This powerful, fundamental backdrop collided with extremely fragile sector positioning, creating a violent price explosion. Overconfident derivatives traders had heavily positioned their portfolios for further downside before the breaking news. The resulting short squeeze decimated bearish bets across the board. Bitcoin alone witnessed US$1.38B in liquidations over one day. Short sellers absorbed US$1.33B of that pain.

A particularly brutal cascade wiped out US$1.3B in bearish positions within one brief window when the price breached US$66,000. The Ethereum network experienced similar destruction, with over US$1.74B in crypto shorts evaporating in one day. I always warn clients about the dangers of crowded trades. Extreme leverage acts as rocket fuel during sudden shifts in sentiment. The Fear and Greed Index jumped from a fearful 41 to a neutral 55 in one session. Retail traders often pile into directional bets right before major macroeconomic announcements.

Derivatives open interest simultaneously surged 14.7 per cent to US$458.96B. This rapid leverage rebuild guarantees extreme volatility in the coming weeks. Bitcoin confidently leads the broader sector charge, posting a solid 7.26 per cent gain to reach exactly US$69,350.36.

The premier digital network now faces a critical test at the US$70,000 psychological barrier. A sustained weekly close above US$70,284 would confirm the bullish continuation. Major resistance sits at the Fibonacci extension near US$71,600. A failure to hold the US$68,000 support level risks a sharp retreat toward US$66,000.

The seven-day Relative Strength Index currently reads an extreme 92.17. Such overbought conditions rarely sustain themselves without a cooling period. A healthy pullback to test the US$2.26T total ecosystem capitalisation support would provide a vital reset. Technical analysts watch these specific price levels very closely. Algorithmic trading bots execute thousands of orders exactly at these mathematical boundaries.

The leading smart contract protocol demonstrates even more explosive relative strength today. Ethereum skyrocketed 17.13 per cent to US$2,243.84. Buyers shattered key resistance levels at US$2,000 and US$2,300 on trading volume that exploded 317 per cent. The broader arena gained 7.4 per cent, while this specific network vastly outperformed the average. I see this massive divergence as proof of immense underlying demand.

Regulated funds validate this immense buying pressure. United States Bitcoin funds absorbed US$189.3M on August 19. Ethereum funds attracted US$71.47M. BlackRock dominated inflows, securing US$64.68M for its specific product. This real capital deployment proves that traditional finance giants actively accumulate during these macroeconomic rallies.

The bullish structure remains intact but relies heavily on spot buying to absorb any new leverage entering the ecosystem. Asset managers recognise the unique utility proposition of smart contracts. These networks process global transactions without relying on traditional banking infrastructure.

The immediate path forward hinges entirely on upcoming macroeconomic data releases and absolutely necessary technical consolidation phases. The Federal Reserve releases its July meeting minutes later on August 19. A hawkish surprise from the central bank could easily trigger aggressive profit realisation and reverse the current momentum. A dovish reading would further support the push toward US$2,400 for the leading smart contract protocol.

I maintain a structurally bullish outlook on the digital ledger space. The combination of sovereign adoption and monetary expansion creates an unbeatable, enduring thesis. The current technical setup screams caution. The broader trading environment desperately needs time to properly digest these massive gains and absorb the newly created leverage.

Profit realisation at the US$2.5T total sector capitalisation resistance will likely cap the immediate upside. Investors must exercise extreme discipline during these euphoric market conditions. Chasing green candles often leads to poor risk management. Waiting for a confirmed retest of previous resistance levels offers a much safer entry point.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-gained-7-26-to-reach-exactly-us69350-36-and-now-faces-a-critical-test-at-the-us70000-psychological-barrier-20260820/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
j j j