November 12th, 2025

Crypto crashes 3.7 per cent despite US shutdown deal: US$260M liquidations and whale exodus trigger sell-off

The past 24 hours have exposed the fragility beneath recent crypto market gains, delivering a sobering reminder that sentiment can shift abruptly even amid macroeconomic progress. At first glance, the backdrop appears favourable. The US Senate passed a government funding bill on Monday evening, November 10, that would extend operations through January, marking a decisive step toward ending what has become the longest government shutdown in American history.

With a 60 to 40 vote, the chamber cleared the path for the measure to advance to the Republican-controlled House, where Speaker Mike Johnson signalled readiness to pass it swiftly and forward it to President Donald Trump for signature. This legislative breakthrough should, in theory, stabilise risk sentiment and restore confidence in the continuity of US fiscal governance.

The market’s reaction has been conspicuously muted, even negative. While US equities closed mixed on Tuesday, with the Dow surging 1.18 per cent, the S&P 500 edging up just 0.21 per cent, and the Nasdaq slipping 0.25 per cent, the crypto market tumbled by 3.67 per cent over the same 24-hour window. This divergence underscores a growing decoupling between legacy risk assets and digital ones, at least in the short term.

The Nasdaq 100, a traditional proxy for tech-driven risk appetite, now shows a sharply negative 24-hour correlation with crypto at negative 0.77. This marks the most pronounced short-term divergence in months, suggesting that crypto traders are acting on distinct catalysts absent in broader equity markets.

Three interlocking forces drove this sell-off: a cascade of leveraged liquidations, coordinated whale exits in Ethereum, and macro-level caution despite apparent political resolution. The first, and perhaps most mechanically significant, was the unwinding of excessive leverage in futures markets. Over US$260 million in crypto positions were liquidated in just one day, with longs accounting for 84 per cent of Bitcoin and 90 per cent of Ethereum losses.

This follows a 10 per cent weekly increase in open interest, indicating that speculators had aggressively positioned for further upside. When prices dipped, even modestly, margin calls triggered a feedback loop of forced selling, amplifying the initial decline into a full-blown washout.

Compounding this technical pressure was a strategic retreat by institutional and whale participants in the Ethereum ecosystem. Data confirms that two large holders offloaded 178,080 ETH, valued at approximately US$528 million, in what appears to be a coordinated profit-taking manoeuvre. This move coincided with the worst weekly outflow period for Ethereum spot ETFs since their launch. US$796 million fled the nine US-listed funds over the prior week, with every single ETF posting net redemptions.

Such synchronised outflows suggest more than just retail sentiment fatigue. They reflect a loss of institutional conviction at current valuations. With Ethereum’s RSI hovering near 38, a level often deemed oversold, the asset lacks organic buying pressure to absorb such large-scale exits, leaving technical support at US$3,360 as the next critical threshold.

Meanwhile, the macroeconomic data released this week offers a mixed signal. On one hand, the ADP National Employment Report published on November 5 showed that private employers added 42,000 jobs in October, the first monthly gain since July. Annual pay growth held steady at 4.5 per cent, signalling persistent wage pressures. However, a separate weekly ADP metric covering the four weeks ending October 25 paints a bleaker picture.

Private-sector employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs per week during that window. This internal contradiction, monthly gains versus deteriorating weekly trends, fuels uncertainty about labour market resilience heading into year-end. With the Federal Reserve still data-dependent, such ambiguity keeps rate-cut expectations tentative, despite gold rising to US$4,118.58 per ounce on hopes of easing monetary policy.

The US Dollar Index edged down 0.13 per cent to 99.46, while Brent crude rose 1.72 per cent to US$65.16 per barrel, reflecting cautious optimism about global demand. Crypto failed to participate in this risk-on drift. Instead, it exhibited classic risk-off behaviour, not because of direct Fed commentary or CPI surprises, but due to internal market structure vulnerabilities, namely, too much leverage and too little institutional anchoring.

From a strategic standpoint, this correction may be healthy. The 2.99 per cent weekly gain preceding the drop had stretched technical indicators and elevated funding rates into unsustainable territory. The liquidation event serves as a necessary recalibration, clearing weak hands and resetting leverage ratios.

The simultaneous ETF outflows and whale selling in Ethereum suggest deeper concerns about the token’s near-term utility or valuation relative to Bitcoin. While Bitcoin continues to benefit from its digital gold narrative and ETF inflows, Ethereum faces scrutiny over scaling progress, staking yields, and its role in a potential Web4 stack that increasingly integrates AI and decentralised finance in novel ways.

Looking ahead, all eyes turn to two pivotal levels. Bitcoin’s psychological and technical floor sits at US$60,000, and Ethereum’s support rests at US$3,360. A break below either could trigger further algorithmic selling and sentiment deterioration.

Conversely, suppose the government funding bill passes the House and is signed into law, currently estimated at a 96 per cent probability by November 15. In that case, it may restore enough macro calm to reignite risk appetite. Crypto’s fate will ultimately depend less on political theatre and more on whether organic demand can replace speculative leverage and institutional outflows. Until then, volatility remains the only certainty.

Source: https://e27.co/crypto-crashes-3-7-per-cent-despite-us-shutdown-deal-us260m-liquidations-and-whale-exodus-trigger-sell-off-20251112/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

September 8th, 2025

The market just hit a nerve: Is this the start of a 7 per cent crash?

The narrative of a year-end rally persists but faces headwinds from softening labour data and geopolitical shifts. In my view, this moment represents a healthy pause in an otherwise robust bull market that began surging after the dramatic events of April 2025. That month marked what President Trump dubbed Liberation Day on April 2, when he unveiled sweeping tariffs across nearly all sectors of the US economy.

The announcement sparked immediate panic and a sharp sell-off, but markets quickly rebounded as companies announced massive onshore investments to sidestep the trade barriers. This rally propelled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to impressive heights over the summer. Still, now signs of fatigue emerge in both the US and China, the two economic powerhouses driving global growth.

Market exhaustion and sector pressures

The United States stock market showed clear exhaustion last Friday, with major indices closing lower amid broader concerns about the pace of economic expansion. The S&P 500 declined by 0.32 per cent, the Nasdaq Composite edged down 0.03 per cent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.48 per cent. Energy and financial sectors led the downturn, as traders reacted to softer-than-expected labour figures and anticipation of Federal Reserve actions.

Nvidia, the bellwether of the technology sector, dipped below its 50-day moving average for the first time in weeks, trading around US$172 per share, while the average hovered at US$172.32 per share. This technical breach signals potential volatility in tech-heavy indices, where Nvidia’s performance often sets the tone.

The AI hype meets reality

Investors poured billions into artificial intelligence plays earlier this year, fuelled by the post-Liberation Day optimism, but now they demand tangible results rather than vague promises. Companies must demonstrate how AI translates into revenue and efficiency gains, or risk sharp corrections.

Salesforce exemplified this shift last week when its shares faced pressure amid fierce competition in the AI arena. The company rolled out new AI products under its Agentforce platform, aiming to empower small and medium-sized businesses with autonomous agents for tasks like customer service and data analysis.

However, rivals like Microsoft and Google intensified their offerings, with integrations that challenge Salesforce’s dominance in customer relationship management. Salesforce executives highlighted predictions that AI agents will transform industries by 2025, enabling smaller firms to compete with giants through more intelligent automation. Yet, market reaction turned skeptical as earnings reports revealed slower adoption rates than anticipated.

In my opinion, Salesforce remains well-positioned for the long term because its ecosystem seamlessly integrates AI across sales, marketing, and service tools. However, short-term hurdles from competition could cap the upside until proof of widespread deployment materialises. This evolving AI theme underscores a broader market maturation, where hype gives way to fundamentals.

Currency markets and the dollar debate

On the currency front, bets against the US dollar appear overly aggressive at this juncture. The Dollar Index closed 0.6 per cent lower last Friday at around 97.93, reflecting heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. A steadier US economy, combined with persistent inflation above the Fed’s target, suggests fewer cuts than the market currently prices in, anticipating about five 25-basis-point reductions through September 2026.

The August non-farm payrolls report added fuel to this fire, showing only 22,000 jobs added, far below the forecasted 75,000, while June figures were revised to an outright loss. Unemployment climbed to 4.3 per cent, the highest in nearly four years, prompting traders to bake in a 25 basis point cut for the September 17 meeting and even 12 per cent odds of a 50 basis point move.

Yet, I believe the dollar’s downside remains limited. President Trump’s administration has secured over US$5 trillion in new onshore investments from companies and countries alike, including a US$1 trillion commitment from Japan and US$600 billion from Saudi Arabia over the next four years.

These inflows, aimed at bolstering domestic manufacturing amid the trade war, will sustain demand for the greenback. If the Dollar Index surges past 100, it could pressure US equities, particularly megacap stocks like those in the Magnificent Seven, which derive significant revenue from overseas operations.

Seasonal corrections and buying opportunities

A pullback of five to seven per cent in the S&P 500 seems likely, and perhaps steeper for the Nasdaq given its outsized gains since the Liberation Day rebound. The index wiped out all 2025 losses by mid-May, climbing from April lows around 6,000 to current levels near 6,450. No major negative catalysts loom on the horizon, such as earnings disappointments or policy shocks, so any correction should prove shallow and short-lived.

Strong buy orders cluster at key support levels, like the 200-day moving average for the S&P around 6,200, which could absorb selling pressure and preserve constructive sentiment heading into the traditional post-September rally. Historically, markets often experience the “September blues” but rebound strongly into year-end, especially when central banks ease their policy. With the Fed poised for cuts and global liquidity ample, I see this dip as a buying opportunity for long-term investors focused on AI and infrastructure themes.

Global macro landscape

Turning to the macro landscape, global risk appetite found some relief after US indices trimmed losses from recent peaks. Traders parsed the soft labor data, which highlighted a cooling job market without tipping into recession territory. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that average hourly earnings rose 0.3 per cent to US$36.53, indicating that wage pressures persist and could keep inflation sticky.

US Treasuries extended their rally, with the two-year yield dropping 7.9 basis points to 3.51 per cent and the ten-year yield falling 8.7 basis points to 4.07 per cent. This flight to safety reflects bets on aggressive Fed easing, but longer-term yields remain elevated due to fiscal expansion under the current administration. Gold prices climbed 1.2 per cent to hold above US$3,500 per ounce, reaching US$3,590 on Monday as a hedge against uncertainty.

Brent crude oil retreated 2.2 per cent toward US$65 per barrel, with OPEC+ signalling plans to increase production amid ample supply and softening demand forecasts. S&P Global analysts predict dated Brent could slide to US$55 by year-end, pressured by trade tensions and slower global growth.

Asia’s market resilience

Asian equity markets opened stronger on Monday, buoyed by political developments in Japan. The Nikkei 225 advanced 1.62 per cent to 43,714, leading gains after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation over the weekend. Ishiba stepped down following his Liberal Democratic Party’s historic election losses in July, which eroded his support and raised questions about fiscal policy continuity.

The yen weakened against the dollar on fears that political instability would delay Bank of Japan rate hikes, trading near 150 yen per chat. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.24 per cent to 3,212, while Australia’s ASX 200 dipped 0.45 per cent.

Investors now await China’s August trade data, released later today, to assess the trade war’s toll. Exports grew at the slowest pace in six months, missing forecasts as shipments to the US declined sharply despite a brief truce in tariffs. Imports fell even more, signaling weak domestic demand. The US imposed tariffs up to 145 per cent on Chinese goods this year, escalating the conflict and prompting Beijing to retaliate with measures on American agriculture and tech.

In my assessment, China’s economy faces headwinds from this standoff, but stimulus measures, such as fee cuts in its US$4.9 trillion mutual fund industry, could provide a buffer. Overall, Asian markets demonstrate resilience, with tech and value stocks trading below their estimated worth, offering attractive entry points.

Crypto markets: Signs of recovery

The cryptocurrency market mirrored broader risk assets, with Bitcoin staging a modest recovery after three weeks of declines from its all-time high of US$124,474. The leading digital asset steadied at around US$110,900 on Monday, up nearly three per cent for the week. Technical indicators support further upside if momentum builds. The Relative Strength Index on the daily chart rose to 46, indicating a shift toward the neutral 50 level as bearish pressure subsides.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence flashed a bullish crossover on Saturday, signalling improving sentiment and potential buy opportunities. Should Bitcoin push past its daily resistance at US$116,000, it could extend the rally toward US$120,000, driven by institutional inflows and halving cycle dynamics. However, a breakdown below US$105,573 in support might trigger a deeper correction toward US$100,000, especially if equity markets wobble.

Ethereum, meanwhile, consolidated between US$4,232 and US$4,488 for nine straight days, trading around US$4,300 after bouncing from the lower boundary. The RSI hovered near 50, reflecting trader indecision. A close above US$4,488 could propel Ethereum toward its record high of US$4,956, bolstered by network upgrades and ETF approvals.

Conversely, a drop below US$4,232 risks testing the 50-day exponential moving average at US$4,077. In the crypto realm, I remain bullish on both assets as adoption accelerates, but volatility tied to macro events like Fed decisions warrants caution. Bitcoin’s role as digital gold strengthens amid dollar strength debates, while Ethereum’s utility in decentralised finance positions it for outsized gains if AI integrations proliferate.

Closing thoughts: A balanced outlook

In reflecting on this market snapshot, I advocate a balanced yet optimistic stance. The post-Liberation Day rally transformed the economic landscape, channeling trillions into US onshore projects that promise job creation and supply chain resilience. Sure, trade wars with China inflict pain, curbing export growth and inflating costs, but they also spur innovation and domestic investment.

The weak jobs report underscores the need for Fed easing, which should lubricate markets without igniting inflation spirals. Political turbulence in Japan adds uncertainty, but history shows such transitions often lead to pro-growth policies.

For investors, focus on quality names in AI, renewables, and infrastructure to navigate the pullback. A five to seven per cent dip offers a chance to accumulate, as year-end tailwinds from holiday spending and tax strategies loom large.

Crypto enthusiasts should view Bitcoin’s technical rebound as a sign of resilience, while Ethereum’s consolidation suggests a breakout if global liquidity flows in. Overall, markets are taking a breather now, but the underlying momentum remains upward. Prudent positioning today sets the stage for substantial rewards by 2026.

Source: https://e27.co/the-market-just-hit-a-nerve-is-this-the-start-of-a-7-per-cent-crash-20250908/

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

April 10th, 2025

Gold jumps 3.3 per cent, Nasdaq soars 12.1 per cent, Bitcoin increases 7 per cent: Inside Trump’s tariff rollback effects

April 10, 2025, the world woke up to a dramatic shift in global risk sentiment, spurred by President Donald Trump’s unexpected announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most countries, excluding China.

This move, paired with a jaw-dropping 125 per cent tariff hike on Chinese imports, has sent shockwaves through markets, igniting a rollercoaster of reactions that deserve a deep and thoughtful exploration. Let’s unpack this market wrap, weaving together the data, the human stakes, and my own take on what it all means.

The announcement came like a thunderclap after days of escalating tension, with both the US and China locked in a high-stakes game of economic brinkmanship. Just yesterday, tariffs on China jumped by another 50 per cent, pushing the total to an unprecedented 125 per cent. It’s a bold, almost theatrical escalation, signalling that Trump is doubling down on his hardline stance against Beijing.

Meanwhile, the 90-day pause on tariffs for other nations—a flat 10 per cent duty remains in place—offers a lifeline for negotiations, a chance to step back from the edge of a full-blown global trade war. The markets, ever sensitive to such twists, responded with a fervour that hadn’t been seen in years.

The S&P 500 surged 9.5 per cent, its largest single-day rally since October 2008, while the Nasdaq soared 12.1 per cent, marking its biggest daily gain in 24 years. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, often dubbed Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” plummeted 35.8 per cent to 33.62, a dramatic exhale after peaking at 52.33. It’s as if the markets collectively sighed in relief, at least for now.

What’s driving this euphoria? For one, the pause on universal tariffs has lifted a dark cloud of uncertainty that had been suffocating investor confidence. The prospect of reciprocal tariffs—matching duties imposed by other countries on US goods—had threatened to choke global trade, spike inflation, and drag economies into recession. Trump’s decision to hit the brakes, even temporarily, suggests a willingness to negotiate rather than bulldoze ahead, a pragmatic pivot that markets have seized upon.

But it’s not all rosy. The US-China trade war is intensifying, and with neither side showing signs of backing down, the stakes are higher than ever. The 125 per cent tariff on China is a gauntlet thrown down, a dare for Beijing to retaliate further or come to the table. It’s a risky play, and one that could backfire if China opts for escalation over compromise.

Turning to the bond market, US Treasury yields paint a complex picture. The 10-year yield climbed 3.9 basis points to 4.332 per cent, and the 2-year yield leaped 18.2 basis points to 3.908 per cent, reflecting a surge in risk-on sentiment. Yet, the 20-year and 30-year yields bucked the trend, easing slightly, a subtle hint that investors remain wary of the long-term fallout from this trade saga.

The robust demand at the 10-year Treasury note auction underscores a flight to quality amid the chaos—investors still see US debt as a safe harbour, even as yields tick higher. The US Dollar Index, however, barely budged, slipping just 0.1 per cent. This muted response stands in contrast to the sharp declines in safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen, both down 1.0 per cent, as risk appetite roared back to life.

Commodities, too, joined the rally. Gold, often a barometer of fear, surged 3.3 per cent—its biggest one-day gain since March 2020—settling above US$3,100 per troy ounce. At first glance, this might seem counterintuitive given the risk-on mood, but it reflects a dual narrative: relief at the tariff pause, coupled with lingering unease about the US-China standoff. Brent crude oil, meanwhile, climbed 4.2 per cent to US$65 per barrel, buoyed by optimism that a broader trade war might be averted, at least for now.

Over in Asia, indices like the HSCEI rose 3.2 per cent, fuelled by hopes of more Chinese stimulus to counter the tariff squeeze. It’s a fragile optimism, though—US equity futures are already signalling a lower open, suggesting that yesterday’s euphoria might be short-lived.

The crypto market, ever a wild card, erupted in tandem with traditional assets. Bitcoin surged eight per cent to reclaim US$84,000, its strongest intraday gain since mid-March, sparked by Trump’s tariff rollback. Technical indicators hint at a potential sell-wall at US$85,000 as traders eye profits, but the momentum is undeniable. This rally comes on the heels of BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s Monday warning that global markets could sink 20 per cent if tariffs took full effect—a prediction that now looks prescient, though his call for a “buying opportunity” has proven spot-on with this rebound.

Binance, commanding nearly half of Bitcoin’s spot trading volume, has solidified its dominance, with its altcoin market share swelling from 38 per cent to 44 per cent in Q1. It’s a testament to the exchange’s ability to capitalise on volatility, though it’s squeezing competitors in the process.

Ethereum, however, tells a darker story. Sliding to US$1,380—a level unseen since March 2023—it’s caught in a relentless downtrend, battered by macroeconomic headwinds and uncertainty over US trade policies. Sentiment in the crypto space is souring, with investors questioning whether ETH’s bullish structure can hold. Yet, there’s a glimmer of hope: CryptoRank data shows Ethereum trading below its realised price, a rare signal that’s historically preceded strong recoveries. It’s too early to call a bottom, but this could be an accumulation zone for the brave.

On the central bank front, the Fed’s March FOMC minutes offered little solace, overshadowed by trade developments. Policymakers flagged “longer-lasting inflationary pressures” from tariffs, with risks to inflation skewed upward and employment downward. It’s a sobering assessment, hinting at a Fed that’s boxed in—rate cuts could stoke inflation further, while holding steady might choke growth. Across the Pacific, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered a 25-basis-point cut, as expected, with a dovish tilt suggesting more easing ahead as Trump’s tariff fallout unfolds. Central banks are on edge, and rightly so.

So, what’s my take? This market wrap is a tale of two narratives: relief and reckoning. The 90-day tariff pause has unleashed a wave of optimism, giving stocks, commodities, and Bitcoin a much-needed boost. It’s a lifeline for a global economy teetering on the brink, and investors are grabbing it with both hands.

But the US-China trade war is a festering wound that won’t heal easily. That 125 per cent tariff is a provocation, and China’s next move—whether retaliation or negotiation—will shape the months ahead. The markets may be celebrating today, but this feels like a sugar high, not a sustainable recovery. Volatility isn’t going anywhere; the VIX may have eased, but at 33.62, it’s still elevated, signaling more turbulence to come.

I’m skeptical of Trump’s strategy. The pause is a shrewd tactical retreat, but the China escalation reeks of bravado over substance. It’s a gamble that could juice US manufacturing in the short term—hence the market’s cheer—but risks long-term damage if global trade fractures. The Fed’s caution and the RBNZ’s dovishness underscore the fragility of this moment.

For investors, it’s a time to tread carefully: the rally is real, but the risks are just as tangible. Gold’s surge tells me fear hasn’t left the building, and Ethereum’s woes remind us that not every asset thrives in chaos. As a journalist, I’ll keep digging, watching for the next twist in this saga—because if there’s one thing I’ve learned, it’s that in markets and politics, the only constant is change.

Source: https://e27.co/gold-jumps-3-3-per-cent-nasdaq-soars-12-1-per-cent-bitcoin-increases-7-per-cent-inside-trumps-tariff-rollback-effects-20250410/