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Why I am leaning Ethereum over Bitcoin right now despite the hype

Why I am leaning Ethereum over Bitcoin right now despite the hype

The crypto market woke up on August 3 with a modest but telling pair of gains. Bitcoin climbed 0.55 per cent to US$63,220.03 over the past 24 hours while Ethereum advanced 1.07 per cent to US$1,871.70. The broader sector added 0.70 per cent. On the surface, these figures suggest a quiet recovery. Dig beneath them and a far more complex picture emerges, one shaped by leveraged speculation, geopolitical relief, and a fragile institutional backdrop that could shift at the first sign of macro turbulence. This moment is not a genuine turning point but a tense equilibrium in which traders are placing bets ahead of catalysts that have not yet materialised.

Bitcoin tells the more cautionary story. The single most striking data point is the 34.4 per cent surge in perpetual futures open interest to US$372.31B within one day. The average funding rate more than doubled to +0.0075 per cent. These numbers reveal that traders are aggressively rebuilding long positions and paying a premium to maintain them. In plain terms, the market is borrowing heavily to push prices higher. I find this deeply significant because it suggests the current uptick is supported by very little organic spot demand. When leverage drives price action, the rally tends to be fast and brittle. A sudden shift in sentiment or a spike in funding costs can trigger a cascade of liquidations that erases gains in hours.

What makes the Bitcoin picture even more fragile is the absence of institutional backing. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded US$265M in outflows on August 2. Capital is leaving these products rather than entering them. At the same time, the broader market sentiment index sits at 35, firmly in Fear territory. News flow remains dominated by negative developments, such as the Coldcard exploit. I interpret this combination as a warning sign. Traders are piling into derivatives while institutional money walks away. That divergence has historically preceded sharp corrections. The price may grind higher in the short term, but without spot buying to validate the move, I see limited upside before a potential pullback.

Technically, Bitcoin faces resistance at its 7-day simple moving average near US$63,613, followed by the more formidable US$64,500 to US$65,000 zone. A floor rests at US$62,000. A break below that level risks a slide toward US$60,000. The U.S. jobs report scheduled for August 7 will likely determine the market’s direction. Cool employment figures could ease expectations of Federal Reserve tightening and give bulls a reason to push higher. Hot numbers would reinforce the case for elevated rates and pressure risk assets including crypto. The jobs report will be the single most important near-term catalyst for Bitcoin, far more impactful than any technical level on its own.

Ethereum presents a different narrative. Its 1.07 per cent gain slightly outpaced the broader sector and appears tied to a genuine macro catalyst rather than pure leverage. President Donald Trump cancelled planned military strikes against Iran, contingent on a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Bloomberg reported this development, and markets responded immediately. The cancellation reduced the oil price risk premium, lowered inflation fears, and lifted spirits across risk assets including crypto. I view this as a legitimate relief rally. Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum’s move has a clear external trigger that explains why buyers stepped in.

Beyond geopolitics, Ethereum benefits from tangible institutional demand. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs attracted US$365.17M in net inflows during July, marking their strongest month in 2026 and reversing prior outflows. Derivatives activity adds another layer of conviction. The average funding rate increased 32.48 per cent to +0.0062929 per cent, indicating rising long positioning and speculative bullishness. This combination of ETF flows and derivatives engagement is more encouraging than what Bitcoin currently offers. It suggests that at least some capital is flowing into Ethereum through traditional investment channels rather than purely through leveraged bets.

Ethereum is testing a floor in the US$1,850-US$1,870 range. Holding this zone is critical for another attempt at the US$1,880 to US$1,910 ceiling, which aligns with the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at US$1,875.40. A failure to hold would target the next demand area near US$1,750. The August 12 U.S. inflation report represents the next major macro trigger. Cooler readings could reinforce expectations for Fed easing and support further advances. A hot print would likely renew hawkish expectations and weigh on prices. In my opinion, Ethereum has a slightly better risk-reward setup than Bitcoin right now because its gains rest on a broader foundation of institutional flows and geopolitical relief rather than leveraged speculation alone.

Stepping back, I see both assets caught in a waiting game. The sector lacks a powerful fundamental driver to push a sustained directional move. Bitcoin leans on derivatives leverage that could evaporate quickly. Ethereum leans on macro sentiment, which could reverse just as quickly if geopolitical tensions reignite or inflation disappoints. The total crypto market cap rose just 0.70 per cent, which tells me that conviction remains thin. Traders are positioning but not committing.

My view is that the next two weeks will define the trajectory for both assets through the rest of August. If Bitcoin holds US$62,000 and absorbs the August 7 jobs report without a breakdown, a test of US$64,500 to US$65,000 becomes plausible. If it loses that floor, the path toward US$60,000 opens quickly. For Ethereum, the key is whether it can convert the US$1,880-US$1,910 ceiling into new support after the August 12 inflation release. Success there would signal a potential shift in trend. Failure would likely drag the price back toward US$1,750.

I remain cautiously neutral with a slight lean toward Ethereum over Bitcoin in the immediate term. The reason is straightforward. Ethereum has multiple pillars of support, including ETF inflows, geopolitical relief, and rising derivatives activity. Bitcoin has leverage and little else. In a market starved for conviction, the asset with broader backing tends to outperform when conditions tighten. That said, neither asset has broken free of its recent range, and I would not chase either one aggressively until volume confirms a genuine breakout. The smartest approach right now is patience, tight risk management, and close attention to the macro calendar. The next catalyst is coming. The question is whether traders will be positioned correctly when it arrives.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/why-i-am-leaning-ethereum-over-bitcoin-right-now-despite-the-hype-20260803/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The market finally exhaled, Ethereum turned 11: The question is whether it can hold its breath again

The market finally exhaled, Ethereum turned 11: The question is whether it can hold its breath again

The crypto space climbed 1.1 per cent to US$2.21 trillion in the last 24 hours. What caught my eye first was where the demand concentrated. Layer 1 tokens led the charge, with the category gaining 1.45 per cent and outperforming the broader landscape. Ethereum and Solana dominated social media conversations, and the timing was no accident. Ethereum celebrated its 11th anniversary on the same day, and posts commemorating the mainnet launch generated a wave of bullish energy across trading communities.

This was not some manufactured hype cycle. People were genuinely reflecting on what Ethereum has built over more than a decade, and that reflective mood translated into real purchasing activity. Capital rotated into these core protocol assets in a way that signals a risk-on shift within crypto itself, not just a mindless beta play riding external momentum. I find that encouraging because it suggests participants are making deliberate allocation choices rather than simply chasing whatever ticks up first.

The supporting conditions around this advance also tell a compelling story. Bitcoin liquidations plunged 62 per cent over 24 hours to just US$22.55 million. Read that number again. When forced selling dries up to that degree, it removes a persistent ceiling that had previously capped attempts at prolonged upward movement.

Traders who might have been squeezed out of positions simply were not there to create that downward weight. The market had room to breathe, and it used that room effectively. A cleaner base with less leverage hanging over it gives any climb more legitimacy, and I believe we are watching exactly that unfold.

No honest assessment of this session can ignore the macro backdrop, because crypto did not advance in isolation. The correlation between digital assets and the S&P 500 hit 76 per cent over the past 24 hours, while the correlation with Gold reached 79 per cent. Those are high numbers, and they confirm this was a broad, macro-driven rotation rather than something unique to the blockchain world. Wall Street rebounded with force after a bruising stretch.

The Nasdaq jumped 2.8 per cent to snap a six-day losing streak. The S&P 500 climbed 1.7 per cent to 7,437.63. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 613.92 points, or 1.2 per cent, to close at 52,208.06. Microsoft alone skyrocketed 16 per cent after robust cloud and Azure results eased investor anxiety over artificial intelligence spending, adding a record US$450 billion in market value in one session.

Chip stocks followed suit, with Micron Technology soaring 18 per cent and Advanced Micro Devices climbing over 13 per cent. Across the Pacific, South Korea’s Kospi Index rocketed by up to 15 per cent in a historic intraday rebound powered by SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped over 5 per cent.

When traditional markets rally with that kind of determination, crypto benefits from the improved liquidity environment, and pretending otherwise would be intellectually dishonest. I view this correlation as a positive for now because it means digital assets are participating in a genuine global risk-on rotation rather than floating untethered from reality.

Looking ahead, the technical picture presents a clear test. The total market cap sits right at the US$2.21 trillion pivot point, and the immediate hurdle is the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci level at US$2.23 trillion, with a stronger barrier at the recent swing high of US$2.26 trillion.

If buyers can push through that zone, the advance gains real credibility. If they cannot, we likely return to the range-bound trading that has defined recent weeks. For Ethereum specifically, analysts point to US$1,975 as the key breakout level that could open a path toward US$2,300. I will be watching that threshold closely because a decisive reclaim there would confirm the anniversary-driven enthusiasm has legs beyond a single news cycle.

One event looms large over the next 24 hours and could inject significant volatility into the picture. Over US$10.5 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire on July 31. That is an enormous notional amount, and an expiry of this magnitude has historically created sharp price swings as market makers adjust their hedges and positions roll over.

The climb we witnessed could either accelerate through expiry as bullish positioning reinforces itself, or it could stall and reverse as profit-taking meets the mechanical selling that large expiries often generate. I lean toward the former given the reduced liquidation environment, but I would not bet the house on it.

My overall read is cautiously bullish, and I use the word cautiously deliberately. The ingredients for a lasting push higher are present. Narrative-driven demand in Layer 1 tokens gives the run a story and a reason to exist beyond pure speculation. The macro backdrop broadly supports risk assets.

Leverage has flushed out, leaving a healthier structure underneath. But translating one good day into a trend requires follow-through, and the US$2.23 trillion to US$2.26 trillion barrier will demand exactly that. Social mood can ignite a move, but only continued capital inflow can carry it through meaningful overhead supply.

All things considered, this session felt like the market exhaling after holding its breath for too long. The combination of Ethereum’s milestone, Solana’s continued relevance, a dramatic drop in forced selling, and a powerful global equity rebound created conditions where buyers finally had permission to step in. Whether they maintain that confidence through a massive options expiry and into next week remains the open question. But for now, the tape looks constructive, the narrative feels organic, and the macro winds are at our backs.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-market-finally-exhaled-ethereum-turned-11-the-question-is-whether-it-can-hold-its-breath-again-20260731/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Bitcoin volume drops 6.14%, and everyone calls a bottom, I disagree

Bitcoin volume drops 6.14%, and everyone calls a bottom, I disagree

Bitcoin sits at US$66,188.15 this morning, down 0.65 per cent over the past 24 hours, and the number tells only a fraction of the story. The cryptocurrency pulled back from a one-month high near US$67,000 as WTI crude oil surged above US$85 and then climbed further toward US$94 per barrel amid an escalating US-Iran conflict now in its second week.

The broader crypto market cap slipped 0.47 per cent alongside Bitcoin, volume contracted 6.14 per cent, and Bitcoin dominance held near 59 per cent with no meaningful capital rotation into altcoins. On the surface, this looks like a gentle consolidation after a recovery rally from July lows.

But when I step back and look at the full macro picture unfolding on July 23, 2026, I struggle to share the optimism that we have found a floor. The global factors stacking up right now suggest Bitcoin has more downside to endure before any sustainable recovery takes shape.

The oil story dominates everything else at this moment. Crude prices above US$94 per barrel represent the highest levels since June, and they carry direct implications for inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policy. The US-Iran conflict shows no signs of de-escalation as it enters its second week, which means supply disruption risks remain firmly on the table. Higher energy costs feed into transport, manufacturing, and consumer prices across the board. Airlines already face margin compression.

Treasury yields hover near 2026 peaks as bond markets price in the possibility that the Fed keeps rates higher for longer. The July 28 FOMC meeting looms as the next critical catalyst, and if the statement hints at delayed rate cuts or, worse, another hike, risk assets, including Bitcoin, will absorb the blow directly. Bitcoin in this environment behaves exactly like a leveraged tech stock rather than a decoupled store of value, and that correlation works against holders when macro conditions deteriorate.

The equity backdrop reinforces my caution. Wall Street benchmarks finished lower overnight, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures slipping as megacap tech earnings delivered mixed signals. Tesla fell around four per cent after missing both revenue and margin estimates. Alphabet reported strong Q2 cloud growth but slid in extended trading as investors baulked at plans to increase capital expenditures. Yes, Super Micro Computer surged 20 per cent on strong AI server margin forecasts, but that single bright spot does not offset the broader disappointment.

The AI narrative that has propped up markets for over one year now faces scrutiny on whether spending translates into returns. When growth stocks wobble, Bitcoin wobbles harder. The 6.14 per cent drop in crypto trading volume suggests buyers have stepped back and lack the conviction to defend current levels. This is not the behaviour of a market that has found its bottom.

Technically, Bitcoin tests its daily pivot near US$66,103 right now. The immediate Fibonacci support sits at US$64,750, representing the 23.6 per cent retracement level. Below that, the US$63,000 to US$63,400 zone serves as the next meaningful floor. Overhead, the 100-day EMA near US$68,000 caps any rally attempt. The structure looks neutral on paper, but I read it as fragile.

A close below US$64,750 opens the trapdoor toward US$63,000, and given the macro headwinds I just described, I think that break becomes more probable with each passing day of elevated oil prices and unresolved geopolitical tension. The recovery channel from July lows remains intact for now, but channels break, and they tend to break in the direction of the prevailing macro wind.

Grayscale research head Zach Pandl offers a more constructive view, suggesting Bitcoin’s recent price low might hold if the Federal Reserve ends interest rate hikes and economic growth remains stable. He treats Bitcoin as a mature asset influenced by growth and Fed policy, rather than by the traditional four-year cycle model, which would predict a longer bear market and deeper declines.

Grayscale also points to the CLARITY Act and Strategy’s improved financial position, including a US$216 million Bitcoin sale that strengthened cash reserves and reduced forced selling risks, as structural positives. I respect that framework, but it relies on the Fed cooperating and growth holding steady. With oil above US$94 and inflation concerns resurfacing, the Fed has every reason to stay hawkish. The conditions Pandl requires for a bottom simply do not exist right now.

SkyBridge founder Anthony Scaramucci argues that Bitcoin will grind higher from here and cannot get much worse. I appreciate the sentiment, but the global picture tells a different story. Mixed Asian markets preparing for a cautious open, a steady US Dollar against the Yen and Euro that signals continued risk aversion, and geopolitical tensions with no resolution timeline all point toward sustained pressure. The AI boom cushions some of the blow in equities, but it does not immunise crypto from a liquidity squeeze if yields push higher.

Here is where I land. Bitcoin at US$66,188.15 reflects a market in pause, not a market in recovery. The 0.65 per cent daily decline understates the vulnerability beneath the surface. Oil above US$94, an active US-Iran conflict, disappointing tech earnings, yields at 2026 peaks, and an FOMC meeting five days away create a cocktail of risk that has not fully priced into crypto.

The 6.14 per cent volume decline confirms that participants are waiting on the sidelines rather than accumulating. Bitcoin dominance at 59 per cent shows no rotation, no excitement, no fresh capital entering the ecosystem. I do not think we have bottomed.

The US$64,750 level will face a serious test before July ends, and if the FOMC disappoints or oil pushes toward US$100, the US$63,000 zone becomes the realistic near-term target. Patience, not optimism, serves holders best in this environment. The macro picture has not given us permission to call a bottom, and until it does, every rally toward US$68,000 looks like a selling opportunity rather than a breakout.

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-volume-drops-6-14-and-everyone-calls-a-bottom-i-disagree-20260723/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j