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Markets at a crossroads: Trump’s Fed clash, Powell’s pivot, and global ripple effects

Markets at a crossroads: Trump’s Fed clash, Powell’s pivot, and global ripple effects

On this late summer day in 2025, financial markets around the world display a mix of caution and optimism as investors digest a flurry of economic data, geopolitical tensions, and corporate developments. The overarching narrative centres on anticipation for key upcoming events like Nvidia’s earnings report and the personal consumption expenditures inflation figures, which could sway Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates.

At the same time, President Donald Trump’s bold move to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook injects fresh uncertainty into the mix, highlighting ongoing frictions between the White House and the central bank. Stocks in the United States closed lower yesterday, with the S&P 500 dropping 0.3 per cent to around 6,439, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shedding 349 points to finish at approximately 44,150, and the Nasdaq 100 declining 0.4 per cent amid sector rotations that hit consumer staples, health care, and utilities hardest.

This pullback follows a strong rally last week, driven by dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium, where he signalled potential rate cuts as early as September. Traders now price in an 86 per cent likelihood of such a move, reflecting hopes that lower borrowing costs will bolster economic growth amid signs of cooling inflation.

Trump’s move against the Fed

Turning to the macroeconomic landscape, Trump’s announcement yesterday afternoon marks a significant escalation in his longstanding feud with the Federal Reserve over monetary policy. He cited allegations of mortgage fraud against Cook, a claim that has drawn sharp rebukes from Democrats and raised questions about the independence of the central bank. Cook, for her part, quickly responded that she intends to continue her duties, setting the stage for potential legal battles.

This development comes at a delicate time, as the Fed navigates dual mandates of price stability and maximum employment. Experts view the action as an attempt by Trump to exert more influence over interest rate decisions, particularly after he has repeatedly criticised the Fed for not cutting rates aggressively enough to support his economic agenda.

The president posted the removal letter on his Truth Social account, accusing Cook of deceitful conduct in financial matters and expressing a lack of confidence in her ability to serve. While markets initially shrugged off the news, with the dollar paring some losses, the incident underscores broader concerns about policy interference that could erode investor trust in the institution responsible for steering the world’s largest economy.

Economic indicators and housing trends

Recent economic indicators paint a picture of an economy that remains resilient but shows pockets of weakness. New single-family home sales in July slipped 0.6 per cent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 652,000 units, which beat economists’ expectations of 630,000 but represented a slowdown from June’s revised 4.1 per cent gain.

The median sales price dropped to US$403,800, down 5.9 per cent year-over-year, suggesting builders are offering incentives like price cuts and mortgage rate buydowns to attract buyers in a high-interest environment. This data aligns with broader housing market trends, where affordability challenges persist despite a gradual easing in mortgage rates.

Meanwhile, the Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for August revealed a dip in activity, with the general business activity index falling to -1.8 from 0.9 in July, indicating a mild contraction in the sector. Production slowed to 15.3 from 21.3, though it stayed above long-term averages, and new orders turned positive at 5.8 for the first time since January.

Employment held steady at 8.8, with one in five firms adding staff while 11 per cent reduced headcounts. Capacity utilisation and shipments provided some bright spots, with the latter surging to a three-year high of 14.2. These figures highlight regional disparities, as Texas grapples with energy sector fluctuations and supply chain issues, yet overall sentiment points to cautious optimism for future growth.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index edged lower to -0.19 in July from -0.18 in June, marking the fourth consecutive month of below-trend economic activity. Only one of the four broad categories, production worsened, while three others continued to drag on the index, underscoring persistent headwinds in employment, sales, and personal consumption.

This subpar performance reinforces the narrative of a cooling economy, which bolsters the case for Fed rate cuts but also raises flags about potential recession risks if growth stalls further. Investors closely monitor these metrics, as they influence expectations for monetary policy adjustments that could ripple through asset classes.

Regional markets: US, Europe, and Asia

In equities, European markets mirrored the US downturn yesterday, with the STOXX Europe 50 falling 0.8 per cent to 5,444 and the broader STOXX 600 declining 0.5 per cent to 559. Banks bore the brunt of the losses, as investors reassessed rate-cut probabilities following Powell’s remarks.

Notable movers included BBVA down two per cent, BNP Paribas dropping 3.5 per cent, and UniCredit slipping 0.4 per cent after it converted its stake in Commerzbank to shares. On the positive side, JDE Peet’s soared 17.5 per cent amid a 15.7 billion euro takeover bid by Keurig Dr Pepper.

In comparison, Puma climbed 16 per cent on speculation of a potential acquisition by the Pinault family. These corporate deals inject some buoyancy, but the overall retreat reflects trimmed bets on aggressive Fed easing, even as European Central Bank officials hint at their own policy shifts.

Asian markets provided a counterpoint, with substantial gains in Hong Kong and mainland China yesterday. The Hang Seng Index surged 1.9 per cent to 25,830, its highest level since October 2021, fuelled by US rate-cut hopes and fresh stimulus from Beijing. The People’s Bank of China injected a net 465.7 billion yuan into the system, the largest daily addition since July, boosting liquidity and propelling tech stocks higher.

The Hang Seng Tech Index rose three per cent ahead of Nvidia’s earnings, with standout performers like KE Holdings up 5.6 per cent, Galaxy Entertainment gaining 5.3 per cent, Lenovo advancing 3.9 per cent, Meituan climbing three per cent, and Tencent rising 2.4 per cent. Consumer, property, and financial sectors also benefited from Shanghai’s decision to scrap property taxes for first-time homebuyers.

In China, the Shanghai Composite climbed 1.51 per cent to 3,884, a 10-year high, while the Shenzhen Component gained 2.26 per cent to 12,441. This rally stems from easing US-China trade tensions, policy support expectations, and positive spillover from Wall Street’s recent surge.

Investors now await the upcoming purchasing managers’ index and industrial profit data for further clues on China’s recovery trajectory. Top gainers included Cambricon up 11.4 per cent, China Northern Rare Earth advancing 9.9 per cent, and Hygon Information soaring 12.9 per cent.

Currencies, commodities, and fixed income

In foreign exchange markets, the US dollar staged a rebound, with the DXY index climbing to 98.20 amid broader currency fluctuations. The euro weakened against the greenback, reflecting divergent monetary policy outlooks between the Fed and the European Central Bank.

This strength in the dollar comes despite Trump’s Fed actions, which initially pressured the currency but later saw it pare losses as gold trimmed gains. Commodities extended their upward momentum, with oil prices touching US$65 per barrel after four straight days of gains. Brent crude eased slightly today after surging nearly two per cent yesterday on concerns over Russia-Ukraine supply disruptions, but the overall trend points to tightening global inventories and geopolitical risks supporting higher prices.

In fixed income, demand for short-term US Treasuries remained robust, with three- and six-month bills attracting strong bids at recent auctions. Yields on the 10-year note hovered around 4.26 per cent last week, down modestly as investors sought safety amid equity volatility.

Crypto sector shifts and Ethereum’s momentum

The cryptocurrency sector experienced significant turbulence, with digital asset investment products recording US$1.43 billion in outflows last week, the heaviest since March, according to CoinShares. Trading volumes in exchange-traded products jumped to US$38 billion, 50 per cent above the 2025 average, reflecting heightened activity amid shifting sentiment tied to US monetary policy signals.

Early-week outflows reached US$2 billion, but inflows of US$594 million materialised later following Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole speech. Bitcoin suffered the most, with US$1 billion in outflows, while Ethereum saw US$440 million exit, though the latter rebounded strongly mid-week. Month-to-date, Ethereum boasts US$2.5 billion in net inflows compared to Bitcoin’s US$1 billion outflows, adjusting year-to-date figures to 26 per cent of assets under management for Ethereum versus 11 per cent for Bitcoin.

This divergence suggests institutional investors are reallocating toward Ethereum, drawn by its role in layer-two networks and growing adoption through exchange-traded funds. Altcoins showed mixed results, with XRP attracting US$25 million, Solana US$12 million, and Cronos US$4.4 million, indicating selective confidence in ecosystems with robust user bases.

Tom Lee from Bitmine highlight Ethereum’s potential, predicting prices could reach US$10,000 by year-end 2025, with upside to US$12,000-US$15,000 in bullish scenarios. Lee draws parallels to Bitcoin’s 2017 surge, emphasising Ethereum’s utility in decentralised finance and corporate treasury strategies.

He points to key support levels around US$4,300, where buyers have historically intervened, and notes that holding above US$4,067 could stabilise the asset short-term. Breaking US$5,100 might trigger a rally toward US$5,450, levels that guide strategic trading rather than impulsive moves.

Beyond speculation, Ethereum positions itself as a foundational element in digital finance, attracting hedge funds, family offices, and corporations for long-term holdings rather than quick trades. In a volatile market, Lee’s counsel emphasises patience, adherence to plans, and vigilance on price thresholds to navigate dips as buying opportunities.

Outlook: Navigating opportunity and risk

From my perspective, today’s dynamics reveal an economy at a crossroads. Trump’s intervention in the Fed risks politicising an institution designed for independence, potentially leading to market instability if it erodes global confidence in US policy.

The resilient economic data, better-than-expected home sales, and positive new orders in manufacturing suggest the foundation remains solid, supporting Powell’s case for measured rate cuts. Asian gains underscore how interconnected global markets have become, with China’s stimulus providing a buffer against US uncertainties.

In crypto, the shift toward Ethereum signals maturing investor preferences, favoring utility over pure store-of-value narratives like Bitcoin’s “digital gold.” Overall, while short-term volatility looms with Nvidia’s report and PCE data, the broader outlook favours growth if policymakers avoid missteps.

Investors who focus on fundamentals over headlines stand to benefit, as these events test the durability of the post-pandemic recovery. This intricate web of factors demands careful navigation, but it also offers opportunities for those attuned to the nuances.

 

Source: https://e27.co/markets-at-a-crossroads-trumps-fed-clash-powells-pivot-and-global-ripple-effects-20250826/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Powell’s pivot: How Jackson Hole reshaped markets and what comes nex

Powell’s pivot: How Jackson Hole reshaped markets and what comes nex

The financial landscape presents a compelling narrative of shifting tides and strategic recalibration as we navigate the final stretch of August. Recent developments emerging from Jackson Hole have fundamentally reshaped market expectations, creating a domino effect across asset classes that demands careful dissection.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s carefully calibrated remarks last Friday did far more than hint at potential policy shifts; they effectively slammed the door on prolonged restrictive monetary policy while opening a wide window for immediate easing.

This pivot represents a significant departure from the Fed’s previous stance and carries profound implications for investors globally. Market participants responded with characteristic speed, pushing major US indices to fresh record highs as the S&P 500 gained 1.52 per cent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq surged 1.88 per cent.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average joined this upward trajectory, climbing 1.89 per cent to touch uncharted territory, a development underscored by the US government’s strategic investment in a major semiconductor manufacturer, which provided additional tailwinds for industrial and technology sectors.

Inflation cools, optimism rises

This renewed optimism stems directly from Powell’s acknowledgement that inflation has sufficiently cooled to warrant policy adjustment. His speech deliberately avoided the cautious hedging that characterised previous communications, instead emphasising the Fed’s readiness to act decisively should inflation continue its descent toward the two per cent target.

The immediate market reaction proved remarkably consistent across fixed income and currency markets. Treasury yields tumbled across the curve with the benchmark 10-year note falling 7.4 basis points to 4.254 per cent, while the two-year note dropped 9.5 basis points to 3.696 per cent. This yield compression reflects investor conviction that the current restrictive policy stance is temporary.

Concurrently, the US Dollar Index retreated 0.92 per cent as capital flowed toward risk assets while gold prices rebounded one per cent on the dual catalysts of dollar weakness and heightened rate cut anticipation. These movements collectively signal a powerful shift in market psychology where the so-called Fed put, the implicit promise of central bank support during market stress, has been reactivated with unusual clarity.

Earnings season exposes a split reality

The earnings season provides a critical counterpoint to this macro optimism, revealing a more nuanced corporate reality beneath the surface. While the much-discussed Magnificent Seven technology giants delivered robust results exceeding lowered expectations, the broader market tells a different story. Analysis of S&P 500 earnings revisions shows a troubling pattern of downward adjustments for the remaining 493 companies.

This bifurcation creates a dangerous illusion where headline index performance masks underlying weakness in the economic mainstream. Investors now turn their attention to the final wave of quarterly reports from key technology players, including Nvidia, CrowdStrike, Snowflake, and Autodesk, alongside consumer stalwarts Lululemon and Dollar General.

These results will serve as crucial stress tests for both the technology sector’s growth trajectory and consumer resilience amid persistent inflationary pressures. The market eagerly awaits these reports not merely for individual company performance but for what they reveal about broader economic health and corporate pricing power.

Asia’s liquidity pressures and regional sentiment

Asian markets present their own complex dynamics, particularly Hong Kong’s interbank rate market, which has exhibited unusual volatility. The one-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate Hibor has surged dramatically from 1.0 per cent on August 11 to 2.77 per cent as of August 22.

This sharp increase reflects significant tightening in short-term liquidity conditions, likely driven by seasonal funding demands and potential regulatory adjustments. Such movements warrant close monitoring as they can transmit stress through global financial channels.

Despite these regional headwinds, Asian equity markets opened higher during early trading sessions today, suggesting regional investors remain influenced by the broader risk-on sentiment emanating from Powell’s comments. Yet US equity index futures currently indicate a potential pullback at today’s open, introducing an element of caution that underscores the market’s fragile equilibrium.

Crypto’s reaction: from Bitcoin to Ethereum

The cryptocurrency sector experienced particularly dramatic fluctuations following Powell’s speech, creating a fascinating case study in market psychology and whale behaviour. Bitcoin initially surged above US$67 000 following the dovish Fed commentary as traders anticipated lower interest rates would boost risk asset valuations.

However, this rally proved short-lived with the digital asset subsequently declining approximately two per cent. Blockchain analytics firms identified significant movement by large holders shifting substantial Bitcoin positions into Ethereum, a trend that accelerated over the weekend.

Lookonchain data revealed one prominent wallet recently converted part of its 100,784 Bitcoin holdings to acquire 62,914 Ethereum tokens while simultaneously establishing a large derivatives position. This strategic rotation by major players suggests a fundamental reassessment of digital asset allocation priorities, where Ethereum increasingly appears as the preferred vehicle for institutional exposure to the crypto ecosystem.

Ethereum’s technical indicators present both opportunity and warning signs that demand careful interpretation. The cryptocurrency’s 30 day Market Value to Realised Value MVRV ratio has reached 15 per cent a threshold historically associated with profit taking and potential corrections.

Analytics firm Santiment explicitly warns that this constitutes a danger zone that could trigger selling pressure if Ethereum fails to break US$5,000 in the near term. Yet this short-term caution contrasts with the more favourable long-term MVRV ratio of 58.5 per cent, indicating substantial unrealised gains for patient holders.

Additional bullish signals include the declining supply of Ethereum held on exchanges, which suggests growing investor confidence and reduced immediate selling pressure. Combined with rising staking participation and expanding decentralised finance DeFi activity, these fundamentals position Ethereum as the structural cornerstone of the crypto economy rather than merely a speculative alternative.

Strategic imperatives for investors

For investors navigating this complex environment, several strategic imperatives emerge clearly.

First, the renewed viability of the Fed puts creates a tactical opportunity to accumulate quality assets during periods of volatility. Well-capitalised investors should view market pullbacks as entry points for fundamentally strong companies, particularly those demonstrating pricing power and resilient cash flows.

Second, the rotation from Bitcoin to Ethereum observed among major holders warrants serious consideration as it reflects a maturation of institutional crypto strategies. Dollar cost averaging into Ethereum provides a prudent approach to managing volatility while maintaining exposure to the asset’s long-term potential.

Third, investors should actively hedge existing cryptocurrency positions using options or futures contracts to protect against potential corrections, especially given the current MVRV warning signals.

Fourth, attention must remain fixed on Ethereum’s technological roadmap, where continued protocol upgrades like further implementation of EIP 4844 will drive sustainable value creation beyond mere speculation.

The road ahead: Volatility and value

The coming weeks will test the durability of this optimistic market posture as investors confront key data points, including the August CPI inflation report, consumer sentiment figures, and potential developments on trade policy. Historical precedent suggests September often brings increased market volatility; the current environment differs significantly from past cycles due to the Fed’s explicit commitment to policy normalisation.

While technical indicators show investor positioning has become somewhat extended, introducing near-term correction risks, the fundamental backdrop of potential rate cuts, combined with resilient corporate earnings, supports continued market advancement. The critical distinction this time involves the quality of the underlying assets driving the market.

Unlike previous cycles, where broad-based speculation fuelled gains, the current environment rewards careful stock selection focused on companies with demonstrable earnings power and sustainable competitive advantages.

This nuanced market landscape demands intellectual rigour and disciplined analysis from investors. The days of indiscriminate buying are over, replaced by an era requiring a granular understanding of both macroeconomic currents and individual company fundamentals.

Powell’s Jackson Hole speech has reset market expectations in profound ways, creating both opportunity and risk that will define investment outcomes for the remainder of 2024. Investors who combine patience with strategic precision while avoiding emotional reactions to short-term volatility will best position themselves to navigate the complex months ahead.

The market’s message is unambiguous: lower rates are coming, but their arrival does not guarantee universal gains. Success will belong to those who recognise that the Fed’s policy shift merely creates favourable conditions; the real work of identifying enduring value remains squarely the investor’s responsibility.

As we move toward September’s pivotal Federal Reserve meeting, the financial world watches with bated breath, knowing that the decisions made in the coming weeks will reverberate through markets for years to come.

 

Source: https://e27.co/powells-pivot-how-jackson-hole-reshaped-markets-and-what-comes-next-20250825/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Jackson Hole looms: Can Powell save markets from a global risk meltdown?

Jackson Hole looms: Can Powell save markets from a global risk meltdown?

The global financial landscape presented a picture of cautious stability, with investors navigating a mix of easing geopolitical tensions and lingering uncertainties ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium later in the week. Risk sentiment held steady, buoyed by slight improvements in US fiscal outlooks and a softening of immediate concerns over international conflicts, particularly in Ukraine.

President Donald Trump’s recent affirmations of support for Ukraine, coupled with optimistic remarks about a potential summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, contributed to a modest dip in Brent crude oil prices, which fell 1.2 per cent amid growing hopes for a ceasefire.

This development rippled through energy markets, underscoring how diplomatic signals can swiftly influence commodity valuations in an interconnected world. The broader narrative remained fixated on the Fed’s upcoming gathering, where Chair Jerome Powell’s speech could provide critical clues about interest rate trajectories amid a slowing but resilient US economy.

In the US equity markets, the session unfolded with a tech-led retreat that highlighted vulnerabilities in an index heavily reliant on a handful of megacap names. The S&P 500 closed down 0.59 per cent at around 6414 points, erasing some of the gains from the previous week’s rebound and snapping a brief streak of optimism.

The Nasdaq Composite bore the brunt of the selling pressure, tumbling 1.46 per cent as investors rotated out of high-growth technology stocks amid fresh doubts about the sustainability of the artificial intelligence boom. Nvidia, a bellwether for the sector, plunged 3.5 per cent, dragging down peers and exposing the market’s narrow breadth despite over 350 S&P constituents posting gains; the index’s fate hinged on a few giants.

In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a marginal 0.02 per cent increase, supported by resilient performances in non-tech sectors like retail, where Home Depot’s earnings provided a lift. This divergence illustrated a market grappling with rotation themes, as value-oriented and cyclical stocks attempted to reclaim ground from the growth darlings that have dominated 2025’s narrative.

Bond markets offered a counterpoint of calm, with US Treasury yields dipping as traders sought safety. The two-year note yield declined two basis points to 3.75 per cent. In comparison, the benchmark 10-year yield fell 3 basis points to 4.30 per cent, reflecting tempered expectations for aggressive Fed tightening in light of recent data showing inflation pressures easing but not vanishing entirely.

Currency and commodity dynamics further painted a picture of measured adjustment rather than outright panic. The US Dollar Index edged up 0.1 per cent, steadying against a basket of peers as investors weighed the implications of a potentially hawkish Fed stance against global growth concerns.

Gold, often a haven in turbulent times, slipped 0.4 per cent, suggesting that immediate fears of escalation were subdued. Brent crude’s decline, driven by those ceasefire prospects, marked a shift from the volatility seen earlier in the year when energy prices spiked on supply disruption fears.

Trump’s reiteration of US backing for Ukraine, while expressing hope for dialogue, added a layer of geopolitical nuance that markets interpreted as de-escalatory, at least for now. These movements came against a backdrop of broader economic indicators, including a mixed bag from China’s data; retail sales slowed to 3.7 per cent in July, while property investment sank 12 per cent. Exports held firm despite US tariff pressures.

Across the Pacific, Asian equities mirrored the global caution, mainly closing lower in a session characterised by narrow ranges and selective buying. Taiwan’s Taiex fell 0.53 per cent, and South Korea’s Kospi dropped 0.81 per cent, reflecting tech sector weakness that echoed the Nasdaq’s woes, given the region’s heavy exposure to semiconductor supply chains. However, India bucked the trend, with the Sensex rising 0.46 per cent on continued momentum from weekend announcements of indirect tax cuts aimed at boosting consumer spending.

These measures, including income tax rebates totalling 1 trillion rupees, have invigorated urban households and supported sectors like retail lending and consumer discretionary goods. Early trading in Asia pointed to further softness, with US equity futures implying a lower open stateside, perpetuating the risk-off tone.

This regional performance aligns with a year where Asian markets have shown resilience amid trade tensions, with valuations remaining attractive compared to developed peers. Asia ex-Japan trades at a discount, offering entry points for long-term investors amid stable inflation and proactive fiscal policies.

The cryptocurrency space, however, stole headlines with Bitcoin’s sharp descent below US$113,000, the first such breach in over two weeks, triggering US$113 million in leveraged long position liquidations and sparking debates about the end of the bull run. From its all-time high of US$124,176 just days prior, BTC’s nine per cent plunge reflected a confluence of factors: profit-taking after a euphoric surge, mounting macroeconomic uncertainties, and a broader risk-off sentiment amplified by Trump’s trade policies and Fed ambiguity.

On-chain data revealed short-term holders selling at losses for the first time since January, with net exchange outflows of 3.4K BTC daily signaling potential capitulation. Analysts like those at The Block noted repositioning ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole address, while Forbes warned of deeper corrections if support at US$110,530 fails.

Social media buzzed with mixed reactions—some X users viewed it as a healthy reset, others feared a 70 per cent drop to US$23K-US$43K based on bearish RSI divergences. Whales appeared to buy the dip, and ETF inflows of US$17 billion in BTC and ETH over the past 60 days suggested institutional interest persists, potentially cushioning further downside.

Compounding Bitcoin’s woes was news of a US Securities and Exchange Commission probe into Alt5 Sigma, a firm entangled in a US$1.5 billion partnership with Trump-backed World Liberty Financial. The investigation centers on allegations of fraud, stock manipulation, and earnings inflation involving Alt5’s president, Jon Isaac, who claims that surfaced amid insider share sales during price surges.

World Liberty, positioning itself as a DeFi and stablecoin platform with Trump as “co-founder emeritus,” raised US$550 million via token sales, and the former president disclosed US$57.4 million in earnings from his stake. Eric Trump is set to join Alt5’s board, deepening the family’s ties. Alt5 clarified that Isaac is not its president and denied knowledge of any SEC inquiry, but the reports triggered a sharp drop in its stock. This scandal rippled through crypto sentiment, exacerbating the Nasdaq’s 1.5 per cent fall and linking political intrigue to market volatility.

Adding fuel to the tech correction was a sobering MIT NANDA report, revealing that 95 per cent of companies fail to achieve rapid revenue growth from AI pilots, based on 150 corporate interviews and 300 deployments. The study highlighted a “GenAI Divide,” with most efforts stalling due to integration challenges, hesitancy in solo implementations, and over half of 2025 AI budgets funneled into sales and marketing without proportional returns. This revelation triggered sell-offs in AI-linked stocks, amplifying doubts about the hype cycle and contributing to the Nasdaq’s woes.

From my vantage, who has chronicled market cycles for years, this day’s events underscore a pivotal inflection point. The Bitcoin plunge and SEC scrutiny on Trump-linked crypto ventures highlight the perils of intertwining politics with speculative assets. World Liberty’s rapid fundraising and high-profile ties risk amplifying regulatory backlash, potentially eroding trust in an industry still recovering from past scandals. While Trump’s involvement has injected visibility, it also invites scrutiny that could deter mainstream adoption.

On AI, the MIT findings validate growing skepticism about an overhyped revolution; with 95 per cent failure rates, we’re witnessing echoes of past tech bubbles, where promise outpaces delivery. I remain cautiously optimistic: markets have absorbed tariff shocks before, and Asia’s undervalued equities, bolstered by domestic stimulus like India’s tax cuts, offer diversification amid US concentration risks.

The Jackson Hole meeting could catalyse a rebound if Powell signals dovish intent, but investors must brace for volatility. Focusing on fundamentals over frenzy will separate winners from the washout. In a world where geopolitical whispers move billions, resilience lies in balanced portfolios that weather these storms, not chase fleeting highs.

 

Source: https://e27.co/jackson-hole-looms-can-powell-save-markets-from-a-global-risk-meltdown-20250820/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j