Market wrap: A week of retreat and reflection

Market wrap: A week of retreat and reflection

The numbers tell a story of retreat: major US equity indices took a beating on Thursday, with the S&P 500 sliding 1.5 per cent and the Nasdaq plunging 2.8 per cent. Nvidia, a darling of the tech world, stumbled 8.4 per cent despite exceeding earnings expectations—a sign that even stellar results can’t always appease jittery investors.

Meanwhile, the bond market stirred, with the 10-year Treasury yield ticking up 3 basis points to 4.28 per cent and the 2-year yield edging to 4.07 per cent. The US Dollar Index surged 0.8 per cent, its biggest one-day leap in two months, fuelled by tariff headlines that have markets on edge as the March 4 deadline looms for Canada and Mexico, alongside whispers of a 10 per cent hike for China.

Gold, often a safe haven, didn’t escape the pressure, dropping 1.1 per cent to its lowest in over two weeks, while Brent crude bucked the trend, climbing 2.1 per cent amid supply worries tied to Trump’s revocation of a US oil major’s license in Venezuela. Across the Pacific, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index fell 0.88 per cent, poised for its first weekly loss in seven weeks, with Asian equities mostly lower in early Friday trading.

The cryptocurrency space mirrored this gloom. Bitcoin cratered below US$80,000 on February 28, hitting US$79,666—its weakest since November 11, 2024—shedding over 5 per cent in a single day and 25 per cent since its mid-December peak above US$105,000. Ethereum fared even worse, tumbling to a 14-month low of US$2,150, down 20 per cent in a week, hammered by risk aversion and institutional selling.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, offloaded 30,280 ETH across four transactions to Coinbase Prime, while its iShares Ethereum Trust dumped US$70 million worth of ETH. Other heavyweights like Fidelity, Grayscale, and Bitwise pulled US$24.5 million from their Ethereum accounts, amplifying the sell-off. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index plunged to 10, signalling “extreme fear” not seen since 2022’s market crash.

Yet, amid this chaos, Ethereum’s derivatives market offers a glimmer of resilience: 30-day ETH futures trade at a 7 per cent premium over spot prices, up from 6 per cent two days ago, and options skew at -2 per cent suggests whales aren’t panicking—echoing a recovery pattern from a 38 per cent drop on February 3.

My take: Navigating the storm

This week feels like a wake-up call—a reminder that markets, for all their sophistication, are still tethered to human sentiment and political whims. Let’s unpack it. The retreat in global risk sentiment isn’t a bolt from the blue; it’s been brewing in a cauldron of events that sparked profit-taking. Consumer confidence dipped below expectations on Tuesday, a red flag for an economy that thrives on spending.

Then came Nvidia’s earnings—objectively strong, yet not dazzling enough to halt the sell-off in the AI complex. Investors seem to be recalibrating, perhaps realising that the semiconductor boom (phase 1 of the AI story) might be giving way to infrastructure hyperscalers (phase 2) and software applications (phase 3). Add to that a softening labor market—possibly a ripple from the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency culling—and the stage was set for Thursday’s tumble.

The tariff saga is the elephant in the room. With Trump pushing ahead on Canada, Mexico, and China, markets are grappling with uncertainty. Tariffs could jolt supply chains, inflate costs, and squeeze corporate margins—hardly a recipe for bullishness.

The US Dollar’s jump reflects this tension, pressuring risk assets like equities and crypto. Gold’s decline surprises me less; it’s a crowded trade, and profit-taking was overdue. Brent crude’s rise, though, underscores how geopolitical moves—like Trump’s Venezuela decision—can override broader risk-off vibes in specific sectors.

Crypto’s woes deserve a closer look. Bitcoin’s drop below US$80,000 feels like a gut punch to the bulls who saw it as a Trump-era golden child. Hopes of US support for digital currencies are fading, overshadowed by tariff uncertainties and a US$1.5 billion Ether hack that’s spooked the market.

Ethereum’s plunge to US$2,150 is uglier still, driven by institutional exits that signal distribution, not just panic. BlackRock’s moves are telling—when the biggest player starts unloading, others follow. Yet, the derivatives data intrigues me. That 7 per cent futures premium and neutral options skew suggest a core of confidence among big players, hinting at a potential floor. History backs this up: Ethereum’s 38 per cent drop on February 3 was a prelude to a swift rebound. Could we see that again? It’s possible, but not guaranteed.

So, where does this leave us? I see a few paths forward. First, fixed income is shining as a stabiliser. With the 10-year yield at 4.28 per cent, bonds are outpacing the S&P 500 year-to-date—a rare feat that underscores their role in turbulent times. I’ve long felt US stocks were pricey; the S&P 500’s consolidation feels healthy, a chance to buy the dip if you’re nimble.

The Mag7’s 9 per cent year-to-date loss stings, but the Other 493 stocks holding a 3 per cent gain show resilience outside the tech bubble. Timing matters—today’s PCE inflation data could tip the scales. A hotter-than-expected read might fuel more selling as February closes, so brace for volatility.

China’s an outlier worth watching. The February 17 Symposium, chaired by President Xi, has sparked optimism about private enterprise, driving a sharp rally. But technicals scream overheating—RSI and MACD indicators are flashing red. I’d approach this via derivatives—options or futures—to cushion downside risk. The move’s been too fast to dive in blind.

On the AI front, I’m not writing it off. The Nvidia slump doesn’t kill the story; it shifts it. Semiconductors are cooling, but infrastructure (think cloud giants) and software (AI apps) are heating up. Rotation, not collapse, is my read. Crypto’s trickier—Bitcoin and Ethereum are battered, but the derivatives hint at a bottoming process. I wouldn’t bet the farm yet; “extreme fear” can linger. Still, if you’re a contrarian, nibbling at these levels could pay off if March brings clarity on tariffs and policy.

The Bigger Picture

Zooming out, this week encapsulates 2025’s volatility. Trump’s tariff plans, economic softening, and sector rotations are rewriting the playbook. Investors face a choice: hunker down in bonds and wait, chase China’s momentum with caution, or hunt for bargains in beaten-down tech and crypto.

I lean toward a balanced approach—some fixed income for safety, selective equity dips (O493 over Mag7 for now), and a watchful eye on crypto derivatives for signs of life. The PCE data today could be a pivot point; a benign number might steady nerves, while a spike could deepen the rut.

Either way, this isn’t a crisis—it’s a correction with opportunities for those who can stomach the ride.

 

Source: https://e27.co/market-wrap-a-week-of-retreat-and-reflection-20250228/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Reflection Mechanism and Crypto: A Deep Dive

Reflection Mechanism and Crypto: A Deep Dive

The concept of the reflection mechanism was newly introduced into the cryptocurrency space a few months back. A reflection mechanism can be defined as a process in which tokens act as a self-generating mechanism for their holders. As every transaction is taxed you receive tokens automatically simply by holding the token. The reflection mechanism was developed with the hopes of transforming the concept of yield generation in the DeFi ecosystem.

 

How it works

These DeFi tokens use a static reward system, which means that every transaction made with tokens that use this mechanism is ‘taxed’. This means that a percentage is added to a liquidity pool for every transaction, and another portion is set aside for redistribution among token holders. As a result, the value of these tokens is self-generating and aims to promote a ‘hold and earn’ culture, which reduces selling pressure. The reflection mechanism is accomplished through smart contracts, which automate the token redistribution, and all those holders need to do is manage the wallet in which their tokens are stored.

 

Projects adopting reflection mechanism

Since the reflection mechanism concept was conceived about eight months ago, many new players have begun to enter DeFi, incorporating this mechanism into their offering. Most of these projects have made significant progress in the last few months, with SafeMoon being a particularly significant project. It was launched on the Binance Smart Chain (BSC) only five months ago and has quickly risen to become the third-largest token in the ecosystem by market capitalization. On their website, SafeMoon list the reflection mechanism as one of their core components, explaining their rapid adoption in cryptocurrency circles.

 

Investor concerns and community support for SafeMoon

The risks and rewards of SafeMoon’s reflective token model haven’t been lost on the larger investment community. In a recent NASDAQ article about the new cryptocurrency the author concedes that one of its attractions with the individual tokens costing so little, “you can get over a million Safemoon with just a few dollars. It also has an interesting hook of charging a fee to anyone who sells and distributing half of that fee to Safemoon holders. This is designed to benefit those who buy and hold.” Coming under more scrutiny is the way the selling fee mechanism works, with a 10% split between existing holders, and the remaining 5% allocated to the liquidity pool. The issue identified by security platform CertiK is that an owner address acquires the pool tokens – giving them control over the tokens funded by the seller fee. Despite these criticisms, there is strong support from investors in Reddit, notably a recent post from user @commecon in the SafeMoon subreddit which argues that the ‘FUD’ around SafeMoon is similar to that which surrounded Dogecoin, and concludes that, “Safemoon is the best investment I’ve ever made. I just need to keep HOLDING.” In contrast, another contributor points out the “lack of transparency and clear communication.”

These concerns surfaced recently regarding the planned launch at the end of August of a mobile iPhone and Android app; plus, the movement of a large quantity of Safemoon tokens, highlighted in a report in Reddit. In response on Thomas (‘Papa’ @papacthulu) from the Safemoon team tweeted: “The chain is obviously transparent, I’m not hiding, the contract owner address was used entirely for business purposes. At no point was a transaction made with the owner address that wasn’t approved by others.” While on the wallet app issues the main Safemoon Twitter account reassured the community that despite delays, the wallet launch was on track: “We truly have pulled together as a community in regards to the #SAFEMOONWALLET launch our beta testers are testing through the night while our Devs continue to work up a sweat! The launch is in sight.”

 

Merits of the reflection mechanism

While the reflection mechanism was designed to address issues such as selling pressure and excessive price movements, other key issues addressed by the reflection mechanism include:

● Security: because fee generation and distribution are combined into one smart contract and do not require approval from any external interface, assets are very secure.
● DeFi yield generation: the reflection mechanism automatically awards bonuses, allowing holders of reflection tokens to use their tokens for staking and other yield generation purposes.
● Fair distribution of earned tokens: because the distribution process is automated, it is based on the number of tokens held by each user at the time.
● Buyback and burn mechanism: to ensure the longevity of their tokens, some reflection tokens use the reflection mechanism to automatically conduct buybacks and burns. This causes a deflationary effect, reducing supply and increasing the value of the tokens in circulation.

 

The allocation model of reflection tokens

Reflection tokens’ allocation model differs significantly from that of other tokens in the industry due to the mechanism they employ. It works by automatically charging a tax, which is usually 10% after each transaction. This tax is then redistributed and shared among liquidity pools, marketing and development fees, and holders of reflective tokens. This is done to improve the allocation model’s transparency and to keep the respective communities informed. All wallets that receive a percentage of this tax are publicly available on the blockchain for effective tracking and accountability.

 

Reflection tokens’ advantage in a bear market

Based on the current cryptocurrency market outlook, there are indications of a bear market in the works, which would significantly impact cryptocurrency prices, with the majority of cryptocurrencies experiencing a significant decline due to a high volume of sell orders from their holders. In this context reflection token holders benefit from having a distinct advantage in a bear market. Despite implementing a self-generating income mechanism, there is still an incentive to hold despite price fluctuations, thanks to the ‘hold and earn’ mechanism and associated culture it promotes.

 

On reflection mechanism

The reflection mechanism is a relatively new concept in cryptocurrency circles, and it still requires a lot of fine-tuning before it can be widely adopted and implemented by other projects. However, in principle, it reduces panic selling to a bare minimum, which potentially could be significant for the DeFi industry. The litmus test is the performance of such tokens in the market in the medium to long term. At this juncture, such tokens appear an exciting experiment, which are certainly worth taking a closer look for your crypto asset portfolio.

 

 

 

 

Source: https://hackernoon.com/reflection-mechanism-and-crypto-a-deep-dive

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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MarketWatch: Learning Through Reflection: “The Future of Blockchain is in Our Hands” – Anndy Lian

MarketWatch: Learning Through Reflection: “The Future of Blockchain is in Our Hands” – Anndy Lian

“For the sake of discussion, I don’t think blockchain can do so much, it will change part of what we are doing right now, but it surely cannot change the world. Bridging the gap between rich and poor is not a job for blockchain. Stopping corruption, fraud, money laundering are also not tasks for this technology. Blockchain can only help to reduce and assist.” Anndy Lian gave a different opinion. “I also see that in the near future, 3-5 years, we will see security tokens go mainstream, and hopefully, the regulations can help to speed up the process for everything else.”

Anndy also gave his comments to the reporter off the stage saying that the future of blockchain is in our hands: “Blockchain is seen like a speculation tool and a big hype to many people and businesses like I have mentioned on the stage. If we want to see a better future for blockchain, we need to do a reality check by not adding on more fluff to the existing hype. We all have our own personal agenda. I can always sing the same song and say things that the general public likes to listen to and make blockchain a savior for humanity, but this is not right. At the right time, we need to properly educate the market and set a good example for our future.”

 

 

Read the full article at: https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/learning-through-reflection-the-future-of-blockchain-is-in-our-hands-2019-11-22

Read the original article at: https://blockcast.cc/press-releases/learning-through-reflection-the-future-of-blockchain-is-in-our-hands/

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j