May 1st, 2025

Market wrap: Consumer confidence drops, markets rise, Bitcoin ETF soars

US President Donald Trump’s softened stance on auto tariffs has led to persistent concerns over weakening US economic data. Reports that Trump signed orders to mitigate the impact of his auto tariffs through credits and relief on material levies, combined with hints from his trade team about a potential deal with a foreign trading partner, have bolstered risk sentiment.

This development has provided a temporary reprieve from the intense market volatility that has characterised much of April 2025, driven by fears of escalating trade wars. However, softer-than-expected US economic releases, including a widening trade deficit and declining consumer confidence, underscore the fragility of the current recovery.

As investors digest these mixed signals, major asset classes—from equities to bonds, commodities, and cryptocurrencies—are reflecting a market caught between hope for de-escalation and apprehension about economic slowdown. With key data releases like the US first-quarter GDP and China’s April manufacturing PMI on the horizon, the coming days promise to be pivotal for global markets.

The US equity markets closed Tuesday’s session with modest gains, reflecting the tentative optimism surrounding Trump’s tariff adjustments. The S&P 500 rose 0.58 per cent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.75 per cent, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.55 per cent.

These gains, while modest, mark a shift from the sharp sell-offs earlier in the month, when Trump’s aggressive tariff announcements sent the S&P 500 and Nasdaq into correction territory, with declines exceeding 10 per cent from their February highs. The Dow, less exposed to tariff-sensitive tech sectors, has been relatively resilient but still faced significant pressure, dropping nearly 12 per cent since Trump’s inauguration.

The market’s reaction to the tariff relief suggests investors are cautiously pricing in the possibility of negotiated trade deals, particularly after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signalled openness to discussions with foreign partners. However, the persistence of a 10 per cent baseline tariff on most imports and heightened duties on China (now at 145 per cent) keeps uncertainty alive, tempering the rally’s momentum.

Tuesday’s data releases painted a concerning picture. The US trade deficit widened to US$162.0 billion in March, up US$14.1 billion from February’s US$147.8 billion, reflecting the disruptive impact of tariffs on global trade flows. This widening gap, coupled with retaliatory tariffs from major partners like China (84 per cent on US goods) and the European Union, raises fears of a prolonged trade war that could further erode US export competitiveness.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 86.0 in April, marking its fifth consecutive monthly decline and hitting the lowest level since January 2021. This persistent erosion of consumer sentiment, driven by tariff-induced price increases and economic uncertainty, signals potential headwinds for consumer spending, a critical driver of US GDP.

Economists at Goldman Sachs have raised their recession probability to 35 per cent, citing tariffs as a significant drag on growth. These weak indicators contrast sharply with the market’s upbeat response to tariff relief, highlighting the disconnect between short-term sentiment and longer-term economic risks.

Fixed-income markets also reflected this cautious mood. The 10-year Treasury yield retreated 4 basis points to 4.17 per cent, and the 2-year yield fell 2 basis points to 3.65 per cent. This pullback follows a volatile period where yields surged to 4.4 per cent amid tariff-driven inflation fears. The decline in yields suggests investors are seeking safety in bonds, driven by concerns over economic slowdown and the potential for foreign governments to sell off Treasury holdings in retaliation for US tariffs.

The US Dollar Index, however, edged up 0.23 per cent to 99.24, supported by relative strength against a basket of currencies despite a broader weakening trend in 2025. The dollar’s resilience may reflect lingering confidence in US economic fundamentals, though its year-to-date decline of over five per cent underscores investor unease about tariff-induced disruptions.

Commodities markets, meanwhile, faced downward pressure. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, tumbled 0.8 per cent to US$3,315 per ounce as signs of easing US-China trade tensions reduced demand for hedges against uncertainty. Despite this dip, gold remains up 19 per cent in 2025, buoyed by earlier tariff-driven volatility that pushed prices above US$3,160 in March. Brent crude slid 2.44 per cent to US$64 per barrel, reflecting dual pressures: investor anticipation of an OPEC+ production increase and fears that tariffs will dampen global fuel demand.

The oil market’s decline, with Brent hitting a nearly four-year low earlier this month, underscores the broader economic concerns weighing energy markets. These commodity movements highlight the market’s sensitivity to policy shifts and macroeconomic trends, with oil particularly vulnerable to global growth expectations.

In Asia, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index rose 0.4 per cent on Tuesday, and most Asian equity indices opened higher on Wednesday, buoyed by the US market’s gains and hopes of de-escalating trade tensions. However, the region remains on edge, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 10 per cent for the first quarter and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng suffering a 13.2 per cent single-day drop earlier in April, its worst since 1997.

Constrained by Trump’s escalating tariffs, China’s markets have shown muted gains, with Goldman Sachs lowering its 2025 GDP growth forecast for China to four per cent from 4.5 per cent due to trade headwinds. The upcoming release of China’s April manufacturing PMI will be closely watched for signs of resilience or further slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.

The cryptocurrency market, meanwhile, offered a counterpoint to the broader caution. Bitcoin rose one per cent on Tuesday, approaching US$95,500 before encountering resistance. This uptick follows a volatile period where Bitcoin plunged 10 per cent to below US$78,000 after Trump’s initial tariff announcements. The current momentum, driven by anticipation of Trump’s trade deal rhetoric and his upcoming Michigan rally, suggests Bitcoin is benefiting from its perceived role as a hedge against policy uncertainty.

Posts on X have noted safe-haven flows into Bitcoin alongside gold during peak trade fears. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF set a record with US$970 million in single-day inflows, part of an eight-day buying spree in Bitcoin ETFs that underscores robust institutional demand. However, large redemptions from Fidelity and Ark Invest tempered aggregate deposits to US$591 million, indicating mixed sentiment among investors.

Altcoins outperformed Bitcoin, with Ethereum and Cardano gaining two per centeach, signalling a higher risk appetite among crypto investors. This divergence suggests a shift toward speculative assets, possibly driven by expectations of economic stimulus in response to weakening US labor and consumer data.

Job openings fell to 7.2 million in March, below the 7.5 million forecast, and consumer confidence hit a four-year low, conditions that historically precede Bitcoin rallies. Some analysts project Bitcoin could reach US$140,000 by October 2025 if stimulus measures materialise, though such forecasts hinge on unpredictable policy outcomes.

Looking ahead, the first reading of the US first-quarter GDP and China’s manufacturing PMI will be critical in shaping market direction. A weaker-than-expected GDP could amplify recession fears, potentially triggering further safe-haven flows into bonds and cryptocurrencies.

Conversely, a robust PMI from China could bolster Asian equities and ease concerns about global growth. Trump’s Michigan rally, where he is expected to tout his administration’s first 100 days, will also draw scrutiny for clues on trade policy and Bitcoin alignment, given his cabinet’s recent pro-crypto signals.

In my view, the market’s optimism is fragile, resting on the hope that Trump’s tariff relief and potential trade deals will avert a deeper economic downturn.

The persistent weakness in US economic data and the ongoing trade frictions with China suggest that volatility is far from over. Investors are right to remain cautious, as the interplay of tariffs, inflation, and consumer sentiment could tip the US economy into recession if not carefully managed.

The cryptocurrency market’s resilience, particularly Bitcoin and altcoins, offers a speculative outlet for risk-tolerant investors, but it is not immune to broader economic shocks. I see the coming weeks as a critical juncture, where clarity on Trump’s trade strategy and the trajectory of global growth will determine whether markets can sustain this tentative recovery or succumb to deeper uncertainty.

Source: https://e27.co/market-wrap-consumer-confidence-drops-markets-rise-bitcoin-etf-soars-20250430/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

March 14th, 2025

A shifting global landscape: Trade wars, market sentiment, and the rise of crypto amid uncertainty

The news that the United States appears poised to dodge a government shutdown has undeniably injected a dose of optimism into an otherwise jittery financial landscape. A stopgap funding bill, seemingly on track to pass, has eased immediate fears of fiscal paralysis in Washington, offering markets a rare moment of relief.

Yet, beneath this surface-level calm, a deeper unease persists, fuelled by President Donald Trump’s escalating tariff war and its far-reaching implications. With threats of a staggering 200 per cent tariff on European wine, champagne, and other alcoholic beverages, alongside a refusal to roll back newly enacted steel and aluminium tariffs, the spectre of a broadening trade conflict looms large.

Against this backdrop, equity markets are reeling, safe-haven assets are surging, and the cryptocurrency sector is witnessing historic investments—all of which paint a complex picture of a world in flux.

Let’s start with the positive news: the avoidance of a US government shutdown. For weeks, investors had braced for the possibility of a budgetary stalemate, a scenario that could have disrupted government operations, delayed payments, and rattled confidence in an already fragile economy. The stopgap funding bill, while not a long-term fix, buys time and signals that lawmakers can still find common ground when push comes to shove.

This development has buoyed global risk sentiment, as evidenced by a modest uptick in US equity index futures, which suggest stocks could open 0.8 per cent higher. It’s a small but meaningful reprieve, a reminder that political gridlock doesn’t always translate into economic disaster. For a moment, the focus shifts away from Washington’s dysfunction and back to the broader forces shaping the global economy.

But that relief is tempered by a much larger concern: the intensifying trade war spearheaded by President Trump. His latest salvo—a threatened 200 per cent tariff on European alcoholic beverages—has sent shockwaves through markets already grappling with the fallout from earlier tariff hikes.

This isn’t just about wine and champagne; it’s a signal of Trump’s unrelenting commitment to a protectionist agenda, one that’s now ensnaring Europe in addition to long-standing targets like China, Canada, and Mexico. Add to that his decision to stand firm on steel and aluminum tariffs, which took effect this week, and you have a recipe for heightened uncertainty.

These moves threaten to upend supply chains, inflate consumer prices, and strain diplomatic ties at a time when global growth is already slowing. The US, as the world’s largest economy, doesn’t operate in a vacuum—its policies ripple outward, and right now, those ripples feel more like tidal waves.

The equity markets tell the story of this unease. The MSCI US index, a broad measure of American stocks, has tumbled 1.5 per cent in its latest session, pushing its three-week decline past 10 per cent. This isn’t a mere correction; it’s a rout, a reflection of investor fears that Trump’s tariff policies could tip the US into a recession. Defensive sectors like utilities, up 0.3 per cent, are outperforming as investors flee riskier assets, a classic flight-to-safety move.

Meanwhile, Europe and China are emerging as unexpected bright spots. European equities, despite the looming tariff threat, are holding up better than their US counterparts, perhaps because investors see them as undervalued after years of underperformance.

China, too, offers compelling opportunities, with its markets buoyed by stimulus measures and a relative insulation from direct US consumer spending pressures. It’s a stark contrast to the plummeting US shares, which have fallen sharply from their record highs just weeks ago.

Bond markets are flashing their own warning signs. US Treasury yields have dipped, with the 10-year yield dropping 4.4 basis points to 4.27 per cent and the 2-year yield falling 2.9 basis points to 3.96 per cent. Falling yields signal a rush to safety, as investors pile into government debt amid fears of economic slowdown. The US Dollar index, up a modest 0.2 per cent, is consolidating after recent losses, suggesting currency markets are in a wait-and-see mode.

Gold, however, is stealing the show, climbing 1.9 per cent and inching closer to the US$3,000-per-ounce mark. This surge underscores its role as a haven asset in times of turmoil, a trend amplified by the trade war’s erosion of confidence in traditional growth drivers.

Brent crude, on the other hand, is sliding—down 1.5 per cent to around US$70 per barrel—as fears of reduced oil demand in a trade-constrained world take hold. Asian equities, meanwhile, are mixed, reflecting the region’s uneven exposure to US policies and its own domestic dynamics.

Amid this traditional market turbulence, the cryptocurrency sector is carving out a narrative of its own. Binance, one of the world’s leading crypto exchanges, has just secured a jaw-dropping US$2 billion investment from MGX, an Abu Dhabi-based firm. This deal isn’t just big—it’s historic, surpassing FTX’s US$1 billion raise in 2021 and marking the largest single investment ever in a crypto company.

Paid in stablecoin, no less, it’s a bold statement about the maturation of digital assets as a legitimate investment class. Binance CEO Richard Teng called it a “significant milestone,” and he’s not wrong. At a time when equities are faltering and trade wars are sowing chaos, crypto is positioning itself as a frontier of opportunity, one that thrives on disruption. The investment will likely fuel Binance’s expansion, bolster its compliance efforts, and strengthen its appeal to institutional players—a sign that the crypto ecosystem is growing up fast.

Not to be outdone, Crypto.com is making waves of its own with a strategic partnership in the UAE. Teaming up with Tawasal Al Khaleej, a tech and AI powerhouse, Crypto.com is set to integrate its trading platform into Tawasal’s Superapp, reaching nearly four million users across the Middle East. This two-phase rollout—starting with referrals and expanding into deeper tech integration—underscores the UAE’s emergence as a hub for digital finance.

Eric Anziani, Crypto.com’s President and COO, hailed the deal as a model for how crypto can merge with mainstream tech ecosystems, driving adoption and innovation. It’s a savvy move, one that capitalises on the region’s forward-thinking regulatory stance and growing appetite for digital assets.

But the crypto market isn’t immune to the broader storm. Bitcoin, the bellwether of the space, has been on a wild ride, flirting with US$80,000 before pulling back as Trump’s tariff threats weigh on sentiment. The broader crypto market has shed US$1 trillion in value over the past month, a stark reminder that even this nascent asset class isn’t decoupled from global macro forces.

The initial hype around Trump’s pro-crypto rhetoric—fueled by his campaign promises to embrace blockchain—has faded as the reality of his trade policies sinks in. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s recent comments hit the nail on the head: nationalism, while appealing to some, could stoke inflation, a dynamic that could squeeze both traditional and digital markets. For now, Bitcoin and its peers are caught in the crossfire, their volatility a mirror to the uncertainty gripping the world.

The Ethereum spot ETF market offers another lens into this turbulence. Data from SoSoValue shows a net outflow of US$73.6 million from these funds on March 13, with Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust (ETHE) bleeding US$41.7 million and its Mini Trust losing US$5.2 million. VanEck’s ETF, by contrast, saw a modest US$1.4 million inflow, a rare bright spot.

With a total net asset value of US$6.5 billion and a cumulative historical inflow of US$2.6 billion, Ethereum ETFs remain a significant player, but the outflows signal investor caution. The trade war’s shadow, coupled with inflationary fears, is prompting a rethink of risk exposure, even in the crypto space.

So where does this leave us? From my vantage point, the global economy is at a crossroads. The averted shutdown is a win, no doubt, but it’s a fleeting one against the backdrop of Trump’s tariff escalation. Markets are nervous, and rightly so—protectionism rarely ends well, as history’s Smoot-Hawley debacle reminds us.

Yet amid the chaos, opportunities are emerging, from undervalued equities in Europe and China to the crypto sector’s bold strides. Gold’s rally and crypto’s resilience suggest investors are hedging their bets, seeking refuge in assets that might weather the storm.

“I see this as a moment of reckoning: the old rules are bending, and the new ones are still being written. Whether that’s a cause for alarm or excitement depends on where you’re standing—and how much risk you’re willing to take.” — Anndy Lian

Source: https://e27.co/a-shifting-global-landscape-trade-wars-market-sentiment-and-the-rise-of-crypto-amid-uncertainty-20250314/

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

December 26th, 2024

Redemption arcs of 2024: Ripple’s victory, memecoins’ rise, RWA growth

Bitcoin’s historic rally to the $100,000 milestone occurred among many significant crypto redemption stories in a year that further legitimized the industry’s status.

The year’s events brought a resurgence for many notable crypto projects that had faced hardships, including Ripple Labs, which scored a significant legal victory against the United States securities regulator, while the memecoin and asset tokenization sectors were also revived, driven by growing retail interest and robust growth predictions.

Beyond new all-time highs, 2024 brought renewed institutional interest in blockchain from some of the world’s largest institutions, such as BlackRock, which launched multiple crypto-based products.

Moreover, President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 elections bolstered investor appetite for risk-on assets such as cryptocurrencies, as an improved environment is expected to bring more regulatory clarity, especially for tokens like XRP.

Ripple Labs and XRP token emerge victorious in 2024

Despite a four-year-plus regulatory battle between Ripple and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the XRP token has proved its resilience amid a robust community of holders.

During the past year, the XRP token rose over 251%, more than double that of Bitcoin’s BTC$97,767 117% returns, according to Cointelegraph data. This makes XRP the second-best performer in the top 10 cryptocurrencies, Cryptobubbles data shows.

Beyond the XRP token’s financial returns, Ripple Labs also saw a “significant redemption arc” during the past year, according to Alvin Kan, chief operating officer of Bitget Wallet.

He told Cointelegraph:

“In 2024, Ripple and XRP stand out as a significant redemption arc in the crypto space. After navigating legal challenges, Ripple has solidified its position in cross-border payments, partnering with over 300 financial institutions and achieving a market cap exceeding $30 billion.”

Ripple scored a significant legal victory in July 2023 when a federal judge ruled that XRP was not a security, regarding programmatic sales on digital asset exchanges.

This marked a significant win for Ripple, as the SEC lawsuit sought to compel Ripple to stop offering its XRP token under the premise that it was a security and, thus, required additional regulation.

However, the SEC also managed to notch a victory of its own, as the federal judge has ruled that XRP is a security when sold to institutional investors, as it met the conditions set in the Howey test.

The SEC filed its lawsuit against Ripple in December 2020. In August 2024, a judge found the company liable for a $125 million civil penalty. The commission appealed the ruling, and Ripple filed a cross-appeal, leaving the civil case ongoing at the time of publication.

On Oct. 16, the SEC filed a Form C civil appeal asking the court to review its decisions regarding Ripple’s XRP sales on exchanges and personal XRP sales by Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and co-founder Chris Larsen.

Trump’s upcoming inauguration, along with his choice for SEC chair, Paul Atkins, have reignited investor hopes that the SEC may drop its legal case against Ripple Labs amid more innovation-friendly crypto regulations.

Memecoin resurgence: 1,600% PEPE and 1,400% WIF rally attract more retail investors

Memecoins have also seen a significant revival, becoming some of the best-performing cryptocurrencies of the year and creating new crypto millionaires in the process.

Year-to-date, the Solana-based Dogwifhat WIF$1.91meme token rallied over 1,273% as the second-best performer in the top 100 cryptocurrencies. It was followed by Pepe PEPE$0.00001802, which is up 1,229% as the third-best performer.

Benefiting from Pepe’s rally, a savvy memecoin trader turned a $27 investment into $52 million after holding the coins for 600 days, Cointelegraph reported on Dec. 14.

While 2024 was transformative for the entire crypto industry, the memecoin redemption arc remains a significant development, according to Anndy Lian, author and intergovernmental blockchain expert.

He told Cointelegraph:

“Memecoins, often dismissed as speculative and frivolous, found new relevance in 2024 by integrating humor, culture, and financial innovation. Tokens like Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and Neiro gained traction, with Dogecoin even influencing U.S. politics through Elon Musk’s appointment to the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.).”

The redemption arc behind memecoins is a testament to community-driven projects, added Lian.

Some crypto traders see Pepe as this cycle’s Dogecoin DOGE$0.3237, which is also gaining traction thanks to Musk’s continued social posts, wrote Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research:

“Dogecoin may be poised for a breakout as Elon Musk’s continued influence keeps DOGE in the spotlight, often triggering price surges. The positive sentiment in the broader crypto market, especially among meme coins, provides additional momentum.”

On Nov. 27, Dogecoin flipped Porsche’s market capitalization, following Musk’s involvement in creating the nascent Department of Government Efficiency, which further stoked interest.

RWA tokenization poised for trillion-dollar growth leading into 2030

The real-world asset (RWA) tokenization sector has also seen a significant redemption, thanks to its promise of bringing traditional finance onchain to create more liquidity and accessibility for investment products.

RWA tokenization refers to financial and other tangible assets minted on the immutable blockchain ledger, increasing investor accessibility and trading opportunities around these assets.

The launch of BlackRock’s Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) was a pivotal moment for the RWA tokenization sector, according to Edwin Mata, co-founder and CEO of Brickken, who told Cointelegraph:

“BlackRock’s launch of BUIDL on Ethereum was a defining moment, demonstrating how blockchain could deliver real, tangible value to the financial world. It was more than a technological experiment — it restored credibility and trust in the blockchain ecosystem.”

BlackRock’s tokenized treasury fund surpassed $500 million market capitalization as the first such fund to reach this milestone in July 2024.

BlackRock’s BUIDL surpassed the Franklin OnChain US Government Money Fund (BENJI) as the world’s largest tokenized treasury fund in late April — less than six weeks after it launched on March 15. BUIDL has held the top position ever since.

BUIDL’s price is pegged 1:1 with the US dollar and pays daily accrued dividends directly to investors each month through its partnership with real-world asset tokenization platform Securitize.

The tokenized fund brought more transparency, liquidity and accessibility to already trusted financial products, added Mata:

“The crypto industry has faced criticism for its speculative nature and lack of integration with traditional financial systems. BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world, proved that blockchain could enhance, not replace, traditional finance.”

In other notable developments for the RWA sector, Tezos has launched the world’s first Uranium marketplace on the blockchain, enabling retail investors access to tokenized Uranium for the first time in history.

Moreover, RWAs are unlocking new investor opportunities in the $700 billion reinsurance sector following the launch of Nayms, a crypto-native (re)insurance marketplace leveraging RWA tokenization to offer tokenized investor access to insurance risks.

The RWA sector could see more than 50-fold growth by 2030, according to predictions from some of the largest financial institutions and business consulting firms compiled in a Tren Finance research report.

Most firms predict that the RWA sector may reach a market size of between $4 trillion and $30 trillion.

If the sector achieves the median prediction of about $10 trillion, it would represent more than 54 times growth from its current value.

The year 2024 marked a significant resurgence for the crypto industry in terms of valuations and mainstream trust. Ripple’s legal victory and increasing interest in memecoins and RWAs showcase the industry’s growing legitimacy for retail participants and regulators worldwide.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/redemption-arcs-2024-ripple-victory-memecoins-rwa