From quantitative tightening to quantitative crypto: How policy shifts are rewriting market rules

From quantitative tightening to quantitative crypto: How policy shifts are rewriting market rules

The Federal Reserve’s less hawkish stance is acting as a catalyst for renewed investor confidence across both traditional and digital asset classes. This shift is occurring as part of a broader recalibration of macro expectations, liquidity dynamics, and institutional posture toward risk.

For those engaged in the evolution of financial systems, particularly at the intersection of decentralised infrastructure and macro policy, the current moment offers insight into how legacy market frameworks are beginning to accommodate the emerging crypto native paradigm, albeit cautiously.

The Fed’s latest policy update, which shows a more dovish tilt relative to earlier guidance, has brought a degree of optimism to markets already sensitive to changes in interest rate trajectories. The decision to implement a 25 basis point rate cut, along with a pause in quantitative tightening, signals that central authorities believe inflationary pressures may be easing enough to allow a recalibration of monetary policy.

This shift coincides with an increase in US initial jobless claims, which rose by 44,000 to 236,000 in the week ending December 6, 2025, exceeding forecasts. Such labour market softness strengthens the case for a more accommodative stance from the Fed, consistent with UOB’s projection of two rate reductions in the second and third quarters of 2026, bringing the Fed Funds Target Rate to 3.25 per cent by the end of 2026.

Equity markets showed a mixed reaction, reflecting relief over the Fed’s stance and caution regarding ongoing macro uncertainties. The Dow Jones rose 1.34 per cent, the S&P 500 gained 0.21 per cent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq declined 0.26 per cent. This divergence suggests a rotation away from growth-oriented equities toward value and cyclical exposures. A similar dynamic is visible in crypto markets, where Bitcoin’s dominance has increased to 58.75 per cent.

Investors appear to be favouring established, large-cap digital assets as relatively safer options within a volatile risk landscape. This preference for perceived stability aligns with broader portfolio strategies that emphasise quality US equities while leaning toward non-US value and mid-cap exposures.

Fixed income markets also responded positively to the Fed’s policy shift, with US Treasury yields declining. The ten-year yield fell more than 1 basis point to 4.14 per cent, and the two-year yield dropped more than 3 basis points to 3.52 per cent. These movements indicate growing investor appetite for longer duration assets as yield differentials narrow and the path of future rate cuts becomes clearer. Bond yields are becoming attractive again from a strategic perspective, supporting allocations to high-quality fixed income as a counterbalance to equity and crypto volatility.

In foreign exchange markets, the US dollar weakened, with USD/JPY falling 0.3 per cent to 155.48 in its second consecutive session of decline. This weakness is consistent with expectations of further Japanese yen strength as the Bank of Japan signals plans to raise rates in December, narrowing the yield gap with the US.

In commodities, divergent trends emerged. Brent crude fell 1.49 per cent to close at US$61.28 per barrel as market attention shifted to potential progress in Russia-Ukraine peace discussions. Gold rose 1.2 per cent to US$2,880.08 per ounce, reinforcing its role as a defensive hedge in uncertain macro environments.

In Asia, regional equities mostly closed lower following the Fed’s rate cut announcement, though early trading showed mixed performance. The strategic outlook remains overweight on Chinese equities, using a barbell approach that combines exposure to tech innovators and high dividend plays.

Against this macro backdrop, the crypto market rose 2.28 per cent in the last 24 hours, maintaining a seven-day uptrend of 0.3 per cent, though still 9 per cent below its 30-day average. This rebound appears driven not by retail speculation but by institutional momentum and favourable liquidity conditions.

Binance continues to lead global Bitcoin trading volume with a 35.4 per cent share, reflecting its established infrastructure and role as a liquidity hub. More notably, JPMorgan’s execution of a debt deal on Solana during Breakpoint 2025 marks an important moment in institutional adoption of blockchain infrastructure beyond asset speculation. This suggests Solana can support more complex financial instruments, strengthening its credibility among traditional finance participants.

US Bitcoin ETFs recorded US$223 million in inflows, the highest in 20 days, indicating renewed institutional demand for regulated crypto exposure. These flows act as a gauge of professional investor sentiment and show that macro tailwinds are influencing capital allocation decisions. Bitcoin’s price action, however, remains closely tied to equity movements, with a 0.85 correlation to the S&P 500. This dependence highlights a vulnerability: despite gaining institutional legitimacy, crypto has not yet separated itself from traditional risk-on and risk-off dynamics. The recent drop in Bitcoin to US$109,000 during a tech sector selloff illustrates this.

Another factor is the sharp rise in derivatives leverage. Perpetual futures open interest increased 11.6 per cent to US$87.9 billion, while funding rates rose 102 per cent within 24 hours. Bitcoin liquidations reached US$95 million, with 77 per cent coming from short positions, indicating strong bullish momentum but also heightened risk of a leveraged long squeeze. The seven-day RSI of 53 suggests scope for further upside if momentum persists and macro conditions remain supportive.

In conclusion, the current rally reflects a combination of institutional engagement and macro liquidity. However, it continues to unfold within a structure still linked to traditional markets. The Fed’s shift provides short-term support, but sustainability depends on whether crypto can develop independent price drivers rooted in utility, adoption, and network effects.

Key levels to watch include Bitcoin’s US$93,000 resistance and the ETH/BTC ratio, which could indicate altcoin rotation. Solana’s ability to maintain institutional interest after Breakpoint will also be important. While conditions have improved, the market’s structural dependencies and elevated leverage call for cautious optimism rather than strong enthusiasm.

 

Source: https://e27.co/from-quantitative-tightening-to-quantitative-crypto-how-policy-shifts-are-rewriting-market-rules-20251212/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Co-Creating the Rules: How Crypto Firms Are Shaping A Sustainable Future With Government

Co-Creating the Rules: How Crypto Firms Are Shaping A Sustainable Future With Government

The crypto world moves fast, with blockchain innovations popping up constantly while governments take their time to respond. As a member of Bitcoin class 2012/13, and having followed its wild rides and the crashes of major exchanges for more than a decade, I’ve noticed a real shift. Crypto firms are starting to view regulators not as enemies to dodge, but as allies in creating a stable and innovative ecosystem. This change feels like a key moment in the industry, especially now when global markets crave clear rules amid all the volatility, scandals, and crypto’s growing ties to traditional finance. In my opinion, proactively jumping in is essential for building legitimacy, driving growth, and avoiding the regulatory hurdles that have slowed progress in the past.

The industry’s approach to government relations has evolved significantly, focusing on shared wins rather than clashes. Crypto companies are acting as links, developing initiatives that match up with public goals like steady economies and protecting users. This involves sharing expertise on blockchain applications, participating in key discussions, and supporting government-connected initiatives, such as those from NGOs, schools, and think tanks. From where I sit, this teamwork gets at a basic fact. Governments are not out to kill crypto; they just protect against dangers like scams, money laundering, and wild market swings. By offering insights and tools, firms can clear up the tech’s mysteries, aiding officials in making smart rules rather than quick shutdowns. With crypto weaving deeper into everyday finance these days, this kind of alliance is crucial. Companies that connect early are not only cutting risks, but they are also helping set the standards.

A smart ladder of connections is taking shape in the sector, aiming at groups from top federal offices down to local city leaders, covering lawmakers, executive branches, and oversight bodies. This layered plan fits the patchy world of rules, where country-wide policies can bump against state or town-level actions. Outside official channels, efforts reach into schools, research groups, community organizations, global bodies, news outlets, advocacy teams, and legal pros. In the wary atmosphere after blowups like FTX, casting this wide web is key to earning trust. For example, think tanks and universities can churn out studies that sway laws, while media and nonprofits spread good stories. Crypto outfits are also nurturing projects tied to public groups and stepping in as fixers during troubles, which strikes me as a clever move toward real-world good. This full-spectrum outreach fights the idea of crypto as just a gamble, framing it as a way to boost access to money and spark new ideas.

Looking ahead, the sector’s step-by-step plans show why this method maps out wins. Companies are showcasing their setups, like research units, decentralized groups, and funding arms, to officials who often do not grasp the field deeply. Regulators I have talked to own up to those blind spots. By giving details on how things work and market info, firms teach without pushing sales, setting up for fair watchdogs. Jumping into open feedback sessions lets the industry shape new rules, like in worldwide drives for uniform systems. Getting hands-on in trade groups acts as a voice box, pulling in base-level views and spreading learning tools. Teaming with think tanks and schools to craft policy write-ups plants crypto views in debates, even if companies stay in the background.

Tactics for handling cross-office rules leverage crypto’s global reach, accelerating information exchanges beyond traditional paths. Showing up at big meetings not to hawk but to highlight pledges to good deeds, such as blockchain for public help, fits a pattern I have spotted. Authorities warm to players who put society first. Broadening outreach past buzz to local, rule-maker-friendly tales of business and charity work is way past due. The field’s current spin often comes off as inward-looking, skipping chances to spotlight true effects. Linking with advocates gives a push and previews, reading official steps quickly. Putting money and startup help into public aims tightens bonds, since joint interests breed commitment. Mingling with other players, from big outfits to legal crews, builds tough webs for growth or slumps. Launching these bit by bit, as constant work, mirrors the truth that ties are long hauls, not quick dashes.

The industry’s backup strategies highlight ongoing soft spots in this changing setup. When bad news hits, like lists of no-gos or tight reins, firms rally lawyers for straight talks with overseers, scoop local scoops, sync quick messages, and tweak things like ads. If lots of players get dinged, a joint push without spilling too many secrets can stand up to oversteps together. In calm spells, inside checks on stuff like partners and area rule-following keep things primed. From my spot, this readiness points out the fuzzy areas crypto still threads, but it also hints at hope. Through steady chats, firms can head off blowups and grow talks.

In pushing this forward-thinking way, I lean on proof that teamwork brings real upsides. For starters, sharper rule paths boost openness and steady checks, pulling in big-money backers and calming markets. These links foster setups that fire up new ideas while beefing up safety, faith, and money reach around the world. Officials zeroing in on user shields, safety, and honesty find overlap with sector aims, cutting down splits. Take cases like Coinbase, which teams with governments as a go-to crypto middleman, easing dives into the tech. Standard Chartered has joined crypto groups to roll out stablecoins, blending digital bits into banks. Even U.S. ideas for a country-wide Bitcoin stash show official hugs when sparked by sector tips. These back my case for linking up. The flip side, pushing back, has sparked shutdowns in spots like China and parts of Europe.

I stand strong for this path, even if it risks too much control, watering down crypto’s spread-out core. But right now, as crypto mixes into finance with cries for oversight, alliances are vital for growing up. As someone watching this arena, I figure copying these moves across the board could flip crypto from a rule pain to a base of world money flows. The trick is doing it right, mixing push with duty in shifting world plays. If handled well, the field will not just hang on, it will boom, helping creators, funders, and folks everywhere.

Source: https://www.benzinga.com/Opinion/25/11/48750239/co-creating-the-rules-how-crypto-firms-are-shaping-a-sustainable-future-with-government

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j

Keep Calm: Hong Kong’s Stablecoin Rules Explained

Keep Calm: Hong Kong’s Stablecoin Rules Explained

Let’s be clear about Hong Kong’s new stablecoin regime. After months of poring over statutes, speaking with regulators, and sifting the louder myths from the quieter facts, the signal is finally audible through the noise. Much of the commentary mistakes a drizzle for a monsoon. If you’ve been fretting about whether Tether suddenly needs a Hong Kong license, or whether buying USDT at a neighborhood shop has become illicit, exhale. What follows is a plain-English guide to what the rules actually do—no hedging, no techno-mystique, just the architecture as written. Think of it as a field note from someone who’s read the fine print so you don’t have to.

Here’s the frame: the Stablecoins Ordinance took effect on August 1. Serious teams moved ahead of that date because the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) spent years laying the groundwork and finalized its guidance only recently. The core principle is straightforward. If you’re issuing new fiat-referenced stablecoins—think USDT or USDC-style instruments pegged to a sovereign currency—you need the HKMA’s blessing. No license, no minting in Hong Kong. Full stop.

The biggest misconception is scope. These rules are not a blanket on every imaginable interaction with a stablecoin. They are tightly aimed at issuance—the moment a token is created and enters circulation. When the law describes “regulated activity,” it means minting, not downstream trading. If baking bread is issuance, groceries and restaurants are secondary markets. The ordinance regulates the bakery, not the bodega. Swapping USDT at a Hong Kong OTC desk or trading it on a local exchange does not, by itself, breach the rulebook. A great many people have been panicking over the wrong thing.

Which brings us to Tether and Circle, the familiar elephants in the room. Do USDT and USDC need Hong Kong licenses? No. And it’s not a matter of corporate intransigence; it’s baked into the statute. The ordinance targets stablecoins issued in Hong Kong and pegged to the Hong Kong dollar. USDT and USDC are minted offshore and reference the U.S. dollar. Unless those firms decide to launch a brand-new HKD-pegged product from within Hong Kong—a prospect for which they’ve shown no appetite—they fall outside the framework as written. That’s not defiance; it’s design.

So what counts as “in Hong Kong”? Not where someone clicks “mint” on a laptop. The analysis looks at the whole enterprise: legal domicile, where operations are run, where reserves are held, and how and to whom the product is marketed. A Cayman-registered firm that runs its day-to-day from a central office, holds reserves with local institutions, and pushes its product to Hong Kong users is very likely within the HKMA’s remit. Blockchains may be borderless; businesses are not.

That naturally leads to the term “active promotion.” The Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) has long drawn a line here: marketing to Hong Kong residents without the right approvals is risky. But “active promotion” is more than merely having a website that loads in Kowloon. It looks like targeted campaigns at Hong Kong users, accepting local payment rails, publishing Chinese-language materials aimed at this market, running roadshows or community events here, and regularly pitching local platforms or investors. If your sales team courts Hong Kong exchanges and you host meetups in central, that’s active promotion. If your site is globally visible but you do nothing to cultivate Hong Kong users, you’re far less exposed. Intent matters; you can’t “accidentally” market to Hong Kong.

Another point lost in the rumor mill: the HKMA can’t conjure new obligations by fiat. Any expansion of regulated activities must be announced through the Hong Kong Gazette. This is not creeping, back-channel rulemaking. It’s a transparent process with public notice. So if someone warns you that “OTC desks might be randomly banned next month,” they’re trading in speculation, not law. The ordinance sets the perimeter; widening it requires due procedure.

On licensing, this is where theory meets practice. Unlike many financial licenses, you don’t just download an application packet and hit “submit.” You first sit down—formally—with the HKMA. That pre-application conversation is a filter. Supervisors will test your model: how you mint and redeem, how reserves are safeguarded, how audits work, and how you’d handle stress. Why the gatekeeping? Because Hong Kong doesn’t intend to franchise dozens of interchangeable issuers. The HKMA has said as much: the market cannot sustain a crowd of “USDC-but-with-a-new-name” projects. They want serious operators with real systems, not façades.

Teams that have gone through these preliminaries report a consistent hierarchy of concern: protect users first, everything else second. Reserve quality sits at the top—cash and cash equivalents that are liquid, high-grade, and cleanly custodied. Segregation is scrutinized: are customer assets bankruptcy-remote? Redemption mechanics are stress-tested: can users get out, at par, under pressure? One applicant spent multiple meetings walking through their audit pipeline—frequency, independence, scope. The message is blunt: if you cannot prove, not merely promise, that your token is fully and transparently backed, don’t queue up.

What about non-HKD stablecoins? The current rules are deliberately narrow: they explicitly target HKD-pegged products. A U.S. dollar-referenced coin issued from Hong Kong is not automatically captured unless it’s being actively marketed here as a payment instrument. That leaves a gray band that the HKMA will almost certainly address over time. For now, a euro-pegged token issued in Hong Kong but aimed solely at European users likely sits outside the scope. Start touting it to Hong Kong consumers as a way to pay for dim sum, and you’ve crossed into regulated territory.

This targeted approach distinguishes Hong Kong from the EU’s MiCA, which sweeps far more broadly. Hong Kong’s priority is the stability and credibility of the Hong Kong dollar. That’s strategically sensible. You do not want a proliferation of unofficial “digital HKD”s fragmenting the monetary system. It also means day-to-day usage of the big, dollar-referenced incumbents—USDT among them—remains largely unaffected. Markets haven’t convulsed because, for most users, little changes in the near term. The sharper impact will be on would-be issuers of local-currency tokens.

Timing matters. The ordinance cleared LegCo in May and took legal effect on August 1. With the law now in force, the pre-application and formal filing process is underway. Expect the first approvals, if any, to arrive no earlier than early 2026. The HKMA has signaled—as clearly as regulators ever do—that speed will not be the metric. That’s a feature, not a bug. Fast-tracked licensing has gone poorly elsewhere; Hong Kong is opting for methodical vetting.

For ordinary residents, the near-term impact is modest. Your ability to buy USDT or USDC is not suddenly curtailed. The meaningful change will come if local firms begin offering HKD-pegged tokens for everyday payments. Those products will require HKMA approval, and rightly so. Imagine taxi apps, supermarkets, or utility providers each pushing their own “digital HKD.” Without guardrails, you’d get fragmentation and confusion. The ordinance is an anti-chaos measure as much as a pro-innovation one.

A final plea against absolutism: this framework is neither an existential threat to crypto nor a magic wand for financial modernization. It is a pragmatic, bounded attempt to protect monetary stability while creating a lane for credible innovation. When the HKMA says the market can support only a handful of issuers, it isn’t stinginess; it’s prudence. You don’t need twenty digital Hong Kong dollars. You need one or two that the public can trust.

The deeper story is cultural. Hong Kong is pivoting from crypto spectacle to institutional plumbing. After the carnage of 2022, the city is choosing guardrails first and productization later. That may feel slow to the “move fast and break things” set, but ask anyone burned by opaque reserves and imploding pegs whether deliberation is a vice or a virtue. This is what learning looks like.

So, practical advice. First, map your activity honestly against the ordinance: are you issuing or merely facilitating use? Second, if issuance is anywhere in scope, start or continue the pre-application dialogue with the HKMA now; it’s already in effect. Third, treat Telegram lore and X threads as background noise and rely on the published guidance. The statute itself reads like legal spaghetti, but the HKMA’s plain-language materials are, refreshingly, actually plain.

The regime is not perfect—no regime is—but it is necessary. Stablecoins now function as critical rails for the broader digital-asset economy; leaving them ungoverned invites familiar disasters. By focusing on the HKD, Hong Kong is protecting its monetary core without strangling optionality elsewhere. The real test will come when the first applications are approved or rejected. That’s when we’ll see just how tight the screws really are. Until then, trade the anxiety for accuracy. When the subject is money, clarity isn’t a luxury—it’s the whole point. We’ve done enough guessing. It’s time to deal in facts.

 

Source: https://intpolicydigest.org/keep-calm-hong-kong-s-stablecoin-rules-explained/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j