July 11th, 2025

Trump’s trade barriers and crypto bets: Rewriting the rules of global markets

I’ve been closely following the latest developments surrounding US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and cryptocurrency policies, especially as they unfold in 2025. The query at hand calls for a comprehensive analysis of how these policies are shaping global markets, and I’m eager to dive into the data, reflect on the implications, and offer my perspective.

With Trump’s recent announcement of heightened blanket tariffs and his administration’s surprising embrace of cryptocurrencies, the world is witnessing a fascinating interplay of protectionism and financial innovation.

Trump’s tariff escalation: A seismic shift in global trade

Let’s start with the tariffs, which have once again thrust trade tensions into the spotlight. On Thursday, in an interview with NBC News, President Trump revealed plans to ramp up blanket tariffs on most US trading partners from the current 10 per cent to a proposed 15 per cent or even 20 per cent. This escalation builds on an already aggressive trade stance, which saw the average applied US tariff rate climb to an estimated 27 per cent between January and April 2025, a level unseen in over a century.

But Trump didn’t stop there; he also singled out Canada, threatening a 35 per cent tariff on its imports starting in August, with a warning that retaliation would trigger even higher rates. This isn’t just rhetoric; it’s a calculated move to protect American industries and address trade imbalances, though the consequences are rippling far beyond US borders.

The immediate market reaction was telling. Global risk sentiment took a hit on Friday morning, with Asian equity indices trading flat and US equity futures signalling a lower open. This follows a volatile period earlier in the year when Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs,” dubbed “Liberation Day” on April 2, 2025, sent shockwaves through financial markets. Japan’s Nikkei 225, for instance, plummeted 7.8 per cent in a single day, and analysts now project a 0.8 per cent reduction in Japan’s GDP due to these measures.

Export-dependent economies like South Africa are scrambling to diversify their markets, while major trading partners, China, Canada, and the European Union, have retaliated with their own tariffs. China’s duties on US goods have soared to 125 per cent, and Canada has slapped a 25 per cent tariff on non-USMCA-compliant vehicles. This tit-for-tat escalation is fracturing global trade networks, and it’s hard not to see the parallels with the trade wars of Trump’s first term.

Economically, the tariffs are a double-edged sword. On the downside, they’ve driven up costs across the board. In the US, consumer prices rose by 2.4 per cent in 2025, with apparel prices surging 17.0 per cent and food costs increasing by 2.6 per cent. Businesses, caught in the crossfire, are passing these higher import costs onto consumers or absorbing them at the expense of profit margins.

Supply chains, already strained by years of disruption, are being forced to adapt yet again. Some companies are relocating production, others are seeking alternative suppliers, and many are simply scaling back.

The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its 2025 global growth forecast, citing these tariffs as a key factor, and there’s a growing chorus warning of a potential recession. For the US itself, estimates suggest a long-term GDP hit of up to eight per cent, a steep price to pay for protectionism.

There’s an upside, or at least an intended one. Trump’s tariffs aim to shield domestic industries, particularly manufacturing, from foreign competition. By making imported goods more expensive, the policy could stimulate domestic production and job growth.

Steel and aluminum tariffs, now at 50 per cent, and a 25 per cent duty on imported cars are designed to breathe new life into American factories. Whether this will work in practice is debatable—supply chain complexities and higher costs could offset any gains but the intent is clear. I can’t help but wonder if this is a last stand against an unstoppable tide or a genuine pivot toward self-reliance.

The cryptocurrency boom: Trump’s unexpected ally

Now, let’s pivot to a very different story: Trump’s embrace of cryptocurrencies, which has sent shockwaves of another type through global markets. On Thursday, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of US$116,046.44, breaking its earlier record of US$113,734.64, and it’s up 24 per cent for the year. This rally isn’t just a fluke. It’s fuelled by a combination of institutional demand and a policy shift that’s caught many by surprise.

Back in March 2025, Trump signed an executive order establishing a strategic reserve of cryptocurrencies, a bold signal that the US government is no longer just tolerating digital assets but actively endorsing them. Add to that the appointment of crypto-friendly figures like SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins and White House AI czar David Sacks, and you’ve got a regulatory environment that’s rolling out the red carpet for blockchain innovation.

The drivers behind this surge are multifaceted. A weakening US dollar, with the Dollar Index hovering at 97.576, has investors seeking alternatives. Global liquidity is abundant, and institutional capital is pouring in, think hedge funds, pension funds, and even banks jumping on the crypto bandwagon.

Galaxy’s analysis of market dynamics since June 2025 points to geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainty as catalysts, with Bitcoin emerging as a standout performer. When Trump’s tariff announcement briefly sent Bitcoin below US$76,000 amid a broader risk-off move, it quickly rebounded, underscoring its resilience. Binance CEO Richard Teng and VanEck’s Mathew Sigel are bullish, suggesting Bitcoin could become a reserve asset if the dollar’s dominance wanes further.

For global markets, this is a game-changer. Cryptocurrencies are no longer a fringe experiment. They’re increasingly seen as a hedge against traditional market risks. Gold, up 0.3 per cent to US$3,324.63 per ounce, is still a safe haven, but Bitcoin’s meteoric rise suggests it’s stealing some of that thunder.

The potential is enormous: greater adoption could drive financial inclusion, spur innovation, and even reshape cross-border trade. Imagine a world where businesses use crypto to bypass tariff-laden banking systems, cutting costs and speeding up transactions.

However, there are risks as well; volatility remains a hallmark of the market, and regulatory gaps leave room for fraud and manipulation. Plus, the energy demands of crypto mining are a growing environmental headache, something I’ve seen spark heated, albeit with less focus than it deserves.

The interplay: Tariffs meet crypto in a global tug-of-war

Here’s where it gets really interesting: how do tariffs and cryptocurrencies interact? At first glance, they seem like opposites—one rooted in old-school protectionism, the other a symbol of borderless innovation. But dig deeper, and there’s a fascinating dynamic at play. The economic uncertainty sparked by tariffs could be turbocharging crypto’s appeal.

When trade tensions flare and markets wobble, as seen in Friday’s retreat in global risk sentiment, investors often look for hedges. Bitcoin’s decentralised nature, unbound by any single economy, makes it an attractive refuge. I’ve seen this before, during the 2018-2019 US-China trade war, when Bitcoin surged as traditional assets faltered. In 2025, with tariffs hitting harder, that pattern could intensify.

Conversely, crypto might soften the tariffs’ blow. If businesses adopt blockchain for cross-border payments, they could sidestep some of the costs and delays tied to traditional finance. A US importer facing a 20 per cent tariff on goods might use crypto to settle with a supplier faster and cheaper, easing the sting.

But let’s not overstate this, crypto’s still young, and its scale is limited. Most trade still flows through banks, and regulatory hurdles loom large. Additionally, the tariffs could indirectly harm crypto; higher costs for imported mining equipment from China, for instance, might squeeze miners and developers.

If I had to bet, I’d say crypto’s rise will outlast the tariff storm, though not without a wild ride.

For now, buckle up!

Source: https://e27.co/trumps-trade-barriers-and-crypto-bets-rewriting-the-rules-of-global-markets-20250711/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

June 20th, 2025

CNA Explains: Singapore’s tightened crypto licensing rules – ‘closing the door’ or ‘raising the bar’?

SINGAPORE: The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has moved to tighten its regulation of unlicensed cryptocurrency firms operating in the country.

Digital token service providers based in Singapore that only serve overseas markets will need to be licensed by Jun 30 – or they’ll have to suspend or cease their unregulated activities here.

Why is MAS doing this?

Experts told CNA the authority was closing a loophole in the industry.

“It’s a step towards consistency,” said intergovernmental blockchain advisor Anndy Lian, adding that ensuring digital token service providers meet the same standards could bolster trust.

Prior to the regulation, providers targeting overseas markets could sidestep licensing requirements and exploit “lighter oversight” while operating from Singapore, he noted.

“This move levels the playing field and likely reflects pressure to align with global anti-money laundering efforts,” said Mr Lian.

Mr Adrian Ang, a partner at Allen & Gledhill’s financial services department, added that it was necessary to support standards set by the global money laundering and terrorist financing watchdog, the Financial Action Task Force.

“Without regulation, the anonymity, speed and cross-border nature of their activities make this sector highly vulnerable to criminal abuse,” he said.

How will firms be affected?

As of Jun 19, MAS has granted digital payment token licences to 33 institutions, including major players like Coinbase and OKX.

While unlicensed digital payment token services can still apply for a local license, MAS has said that it has “set the bar high” and will “generally not issue” one.

Bitget and Bybit are among the top ten exchange operators by volume that do not have a Singapore licence.

A Bloomberg report said Bitget will relocate staff to jurisdictions such as Dubai and Hong Kong, and that Bybit has plans to follow suit.

But experts pointed out that it is the smaller firms that will feel the heat.

While larger firms have in-house legal and compliance departments and experience in dealing with licensing frameworks, smaller and mid-sized players face an “uphill task,” said Mr Mike Chiam, a fintech lawyer at Foxwood LLC.

“Many of them relied on operating from Singapore under a ‘non-retail, overseas-only’ assumption. That assumption no longer holds,” he said.

For these firms – which include unlicensed crypto exchanges, over-the-counter brokers and decentralised finance projects targeting overseas markets – compliance costs, legal restructuring or a complete shutdown are on the table, he added.

Mr Lian, who knows of many small firms trying to shift out of Singapore since early June, agreed that added compliance costs and processes weigh heavily on these.

“I’ve seen startups struggle with similar red tape elsewhere, and it risks pushing innovation to less regulated regions if not handled carefully,” he said.

What about employees?

Mr Chiam said a common question he’s had to deal with relates to whether employees whose job scope involves dealing with digital tokens must relocate.

Based on his law firm’s understanding from employees’ enquiries, it has found that such workers are generally not affected by MAS’ stricter rules, he said.

Practically speaking, employees working for digital token firms do not have to relocate – or at least, that is not the legislative intention, Mr Chiam added.

“On a positive note, employees appear to be interested in knowing how to better comply with regulations and keep abreast of such updates – overall a heightened awareness of the regulatory stance,” he said.

An employee from MEXC, who requested anonymity, observed that other centralised exchanges have introduced additional know your customer (KYC) checks and anti-money laundering (AML) frameworks.

These policies verify customers’ identities, to prevent illicit activity and to comply with global regulations.

Although MEXC does not have a local licence, the employee said his colleagues in Singapore have not been significantly affected.

“There are some observed changes within the compliance and legal teams, but for the most part, it is still business as usual,” he said.

An employee from Bitget, who also requested anonymity, claimed that about ten members of the customer service team were laid off earlier in June.

CNA has reached out to MEXC and Bitget for comment, as well as other firms listed in Singapore but not licensed by MAS.

What does it mean for the industry here?

Ms Angela Ang, who heads Asia Pacific’s policy and strategic partnerships at blockchain intelligence company TRM Labs, said that while Singapore’s approach to crypto may not resonate with everyone, it has been “very consistent”.

“Firms that are not operating this specific kind of business model should not be unduly alarmed. Crypto businesses can still obtain licences here if they are prepared to have a substantive presence, including servicing Singapore customers,” said Ms Ang.

She added that the industry has had “significant runway” to make preparations since the Financial Services and Markets Act was passed in April 2022.

In a media release on Jun 6, MAS also said its position has been “consistently communicated” for a few years since its first response to public consultation issued in February 2022.

It added that based on available information, it was aware of a “very small number” of providers affected.

Allen & Gledhill’s Mr Ang agreed that most crypto firms here should have already undertaken licensing considerations prior to commencing their business, as licensing requirements have been “in force for many years.”

Ultimately, the move should not be misread as Singapore turning hostile to digital assets, Mr Chiam said.

“Instead, the law is making it clear: If your fintech wants to use Singapore’s framework and reputation, you must meet Singapore’s standards,” he said.

“In that sense, Singapore isn’t closing the door – it’s raising the bar.”

Source: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/crypto-licensing-mas-cna-explains-5186446

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

January 20th, 2025

US Crypto Transactions Face New Tax Reporting Rules

According to Cointelegraph, cryptocurrency transactions in the United States will soon be subject to third-party tax reporting requirements, marking a significant shift in regulatory oversight as digital asset valuations continue to rise. Starting in 2025, centralized crypto exchanges (CEXs) and other brokers will be required to report sales and exchanges of digital assets, including cryptocurrencies, as per the final regulation published by the US Internal Revenue Service (IRS). This move is intended to assist investors in filing accurate tax returns related to digital asset transactions and to address potential noncompliance issues within the digital currency sector, according to an IRS report issued in June 2024.

Some investors view this regulatory change as an overreach, potentially driving more users towards decentralized trading platforms. Anndy Lian, an author and intergovernmental blockchain expert, highlighted the risk of users migrating to decentralized platforms like Uniswap or PancakeSwap. Lian noted that this shift could create a paradox where the IRS’s efforts to increase tax revenue might inadvertently push users towards environments where tax enforcement is currently challenging. Reflecting the crypto industry’s backlash, the Blockchain Association filed a lawsuit against the IRS in December 2024, arguing that the rules are unconstitutional as they include decentralized exchanges (DEXs) under the ‘broker’ term, thereby extending data collection requirements to them.

While crypto transactions on decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols are currently difficult for tax authorities to trace due to the absence of central intermediaries, advancements in blockchain analytics could make DeFi transactions more traceable by 2027, according to Lian. He suggested that while decentralized systems pose challenges for tax enforcement now, future developments in blockchain analytics and regulatory measures could alter this landscape. To prevent a potential exodus of users, Lian emphasized the need for specialized tax brackets that consider the high volatility and significant retail participation in the crypto market, arguing that treating crypto gains the same as traditional capital gains may not always be equitable.

The rising valuations of cryptocurrencies have also attracted the attention of other jurisdictions. European retail investors should prepare for taxation following the implementation of the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework, as noted by Dmitrij Radin, founder of Zekret and chief technology officer of Fideum, a regulatory and blockchain infrastructure firm. Radin stated that retail users will be required to provide information and data, which will be scrutinized, leading to increased taxation for most Europeans. MiCA, the world’s first comprehensive regulatory crypto framework, went into full effect for crypto-asset service providers on December 30.

Source: https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/01-16-2025-us-crypto-transactions-face-new-tax-reporting-rules-19018556510562