Trump’s Tehran warning rattles markets, crypto soars

Trump’s Tehran warning rattles markets, crypto soars

On Monday, the world breathed a tentative sigh of relief as fears of an escalating conflict between Israel and Iran subsided, cooling global risk sentiment and lifting US stock markets. Yet, the calm was short-lived, as President Donald Trump’s unexpected call for the evacuation of Tehran jolted markets in early Asian trading on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision loomed large, and bond yields adjusted to shifting sentiments. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, XRP, and Solana captured headlines with their compelling narratives.

Below, I’ll unpack these developments and offer my point of view on what they mean for the broader market landscape.

Geopolitical winds and market reactions

The easing of tensions between Israel and Iran on Monday provided a much-needed respite for global markets, which had been on edge over the prospect of a broader Middle Eastern conflict. This shift in sentiment was palpable in the US stock markets, where the Nasdaq climbed 1.5 per cent, the S&P 500 gained 0.9 per cent, and the Dow Jones rose 0.7 per cent. Investors appeared to interpret the de-escalation as a signal that immediate risks were contained, allowing risk assets to rebound.

However, this optimism was tested early Tuesday when Trump’s provocative statement about evacuating Tehran reignited uncertainty. Asian equity indices displayed a mixed response, and US equity index futures pointed to a lower open, reflecting the fragility of the recovery.

From my perspective, this push-and-pull dynamic underscores a broader truth: geopolitical risks remain a wildcard capable of upending market stability at a moment’s notice. While the US stock market’s resilience on Monday suggests that investors are willing to look past short-term noise, Trump’s rhetoric serves as a reminder that sentiment can shift rapidly.

The early Asian market jitters suggest that global investors remain on high alert, and any escalation could prompt a swift return to risk-off behavior. For now, the situation appears to be a contained disruption rather than a systemic threat, but the unpredictability of such events warrants close monitoring.

The bank of Japan’s steady hand

The focus shifted to the Bank of Japan (BoJ), where analysts unanimously expected the central bank to maintain its current monetary policy stance. This decision to pause aligns with the BoJ’s cautious approach amid a complex global economic environment. Inflation pressures have eased in some regions, but trade tensions and currency fluctuations persist, complicating the outlook.

The BoJ’s dovish posture stands in contrast to the more hawkish leanings of the Federal Reserve, which has been wrestling with persistent inflation and the prospect of tighter policy. For markets, the BoJ’s announcement is essentially a non-event, unlikely to spark significant volatility given the consensus forecast. However, it reinforces the divergent paths central banks are taking, a trend that could influence currency dynamics and capital flows in the months ahead.

The BoJ’s decision reflects a pragmatic recognition of Japan’s unique economic challenges, including sluggish growth and a strong yen that hampers exports. By holding steady, the BoJ avoids rocking the boat at a time when global markets are already contending with geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties.

That said, this divergence from other central banks could put additional pressure on the yen, potentially benefiting Japanese exporters but complicating the BoJ’s long-term strategy. For global investors, the BoJ’s pause is a footnote in a broader narrative of monetary policy fragmentation, with implications that may only become clear as other central banks make their next moves.

Bonds, currencies, and safe havens

The bond market offered further insight into the shifting risk sentiment. The 2-year US Treasury yield stabilised around 3.97 per cent, while the 10-year yield rose by five basis points to 4.44 per cent, reversing some of the risk-off rally seen in Treasuries the previous Friday.

This adjustment suggests that investors are recalibrating their expectations, moving away from a flight to safety as geopolitical fears ease. The US Dollar Index (DXY), however, painted a picture of indecision, rallying briefly to 99 before slipping back to 98. This volatility underscores the entrenched downward trend in the US dollar, driven by uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next steps and the broader US economic outlook.

Gold and Brent crude, traditional barometers of risk, also reflected the cooling tensions. Gold retreated to US$3,390 per ounce, while Brent crude fell to US$73.25 per barrel, signalling that demand for safe-haven assets was waning, at least temporarily. Yet, the early Asian market reaction to Trump’s Tehran statement suggests that these assets could see renewed interest if tensions escalate again.

The bond and currency movements indicate a market in transition, caught between relief at de-escalation and wariness of new risks. The DXY’s lack of clear direction mirrors this ambivalence, and I suspect we’ll see continued choppiness until a stronger macroeconomic or geopolitical catalyst emerges.

The crypto ecosystem: Bitcoin’s dual narrative

Turning to cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC) is at the centre of a fascinating duality: rising mining costs juxtaposed against a price surge fuelled by institutional adoption. The median cost of mining a single Bitcoin is estimated to have climbed above US$70,000 in Q2 2025, up from US$52,000 in Q4 2024 and US$64,000 in Q1 2025—a nearly 9.4 per cent increase from the prior quarter.

This escalation, driven by higher network hashrate and energy prices, poses a challenge for miners, particularly those with less efficient operations. Profit margins are shrinking, and the depreciating value of mining rigs adds another layer of complexity to the issue. Yet, with Bitcoin trading above US$108,000 on Monday, most miners still enjoy a buffer, though efficiency remains a top priority for public mining companies.

The price surge was catalysed by JPMorgan’s trademark filing for “JPMD,” a digital asset platform for trading, payments, and issuance, alongside ongoing optimism around Bitcoin ETFs. BTC rose over three per cent from the prior day, briefly topping US$108,000, a move that analysts attribute to growing Wall Street support for digital assets.

Technical indicators suggest Bitcoin is attempting to shed overbought conditions, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing signs of weakening bullish momentum. Still, the short-term outlook remains positive, supported by the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50) and strong ETF flows.

My take? Bitcoin’s rally reflects a powerful convergence of institutional momentum and macroeconomic tailwinds, but the rising cost of mining introduces a counterweight. Miners will need to innovate or consolidate to remain profitable, and while the current price provides breathing room, a sustained drop below US$70,000 could put pressure on the network.

For now, the institutional narrative, exemplified by JPMorgan’s move, outweighs these operational challenges, signalling that Bitcoin’s role as a store of value and investment asset is solidifying. A retest of all-time highs seems plausible if ETF inflows and favorable conditions persist.

XRP’s ambitious leap

XRP, the token tied to Ripple, posted a striking six to seven per cent gain, driven by renewed ETF buzz and Ripple’s bold vision to become a global liquidity rail. CEO Brad Garlinghouse’s claim that XRP could handle 14 per cent of SWIFT’s payment volume has raised eyebrows, but the numbers offer some credibility.

Experts note that XRP’s efficient protocol could process such volume using just 0.019 per cent of its circulating supply—around 11 million tokens daily—thanks to its low-cost, fast-settlement design. The annual burn rate from transaction fees would be a mere 5,000 XRP, highlighting its scalability potential. However, achieving this requires regulatory clarity, bank partnerships, and widespread adoption—hurdles that remain daunting.

XRP’s surge is a mix of speculative enthusiasm and genuine long-term potential. The ETF chatter is a near-term driver, but Ripple’s ambition to disrupt global payments taps into a real need for efficiency in cross-border transactions. SWIFT’s dominance won’t erode overnight, and regulatory headwinds could slow progress, but XRP’s price action suggests investors are betting on its future. It’s a high-stakes play with significant upside if Ripple can execute, though patience will be key.

Solana’s quiet strength

Solana (SOL) held steady above US$150, lacking the fireworks of Bitcoin or XRP but bolstered by institutional confidence. Cantor Fitzgerald’s “overweight” rating for Solana-focused firms highlights its increasing influence in decentralised finance (DeFi) and Web3.

While its price didn’t spike, Solana’s resilience signals a maturing ecosystem that’s attracting developers and investors seeking alternatives to Ethereum’s high costs. Solana’s steady performance is a quiet strength, positioning it as a dark horse in the crypto race. Although it may not garner headlines daily, its institutional backing suggests a solid foundation for sustained growth.

Tying it all together

The global financial landscape is a tapestry of competing narratives. The cooling of Israel-Iran tensions lifted markets on Monday, only for Trump’s statement on Tehran to inject fresh uncertainty. The BoJ’s pause reflects caution amid global divergence, while bonds and currencies adjust to a tentative shift to risk-on.

In the crypto world, Bitcoin’s institutional surge contrasts with mining challenges, XRP rides a wave of ambition, and Solana quietly builds momentum. My point of view? We’re in a period of heightened volatility and opportunity, where geopolitical shocks and innovative leaps coexist. Markets will remain sensitive to headlines, but the crypto space, buoyed by institutional adoption, offers a compelling growth story.

Watch for Bitcoin’s next move, XRP’s regulatory path, and Solana’s DeFi traction. They could shape the narrative well into 2025.

 

Source: https://e27.co/trumps-tehran-warning-rattles-markets-crypto-soars-20250617/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j

Wall street soars, crypto surges: 2025 market trends explained

Wall street soars, crypto surges: 2025 market trends explained

As I reflect on the state of global financial markets in mid-May 2025, I’m struck by the delicate balance of hope and caution that defines this moment. The numbers tell a story of resilience and volatility: Wall Street’s indices show mixed signals, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbing 0.7 per cent, the S&P 500 inching up 0.1 per cent, and the Dow Jones slipping 0.2 per cent.

Across the Atlantic, European markets are similarly subdued, with the FTSE 100, DAX, and Stoxx 600 all posting modest declines. Commodities like spot gold, Brent crude, and iron ore are trending downward, while Bitcoin, ever the wildcard, nudges up slightly to US$103,780.

These figures, while seemingly disparate, weave a narrative of a world grappling with the aftermath of a tumultuous economic period, buoyed by breakthroughs in US-China trade relations and tempered by lingering concerns about inflation, overbought markets, and shifting investor sentiment. As someone who’s spent years observing markets, I see this as a pivotal moment—one where opportunity and risk are two sides of the same coin.

Let’s start with Wall Street, where the mood feels cautiously optimistic. The recent news of slashed tariffs between the US and China has been a shot in the arm for investors. After months of trade war rhetoric and economic uncertainty, the agreement to reduce tariffs—US tariffs on Chinese goods dropping to 30 per cent from as high as 145 per cent, and China’s retaliatory tariffs falling to 10 per cent from 125 per cent—has sparked a rally that’s pushed the S&P 500 back into positive territory for 2025 for the first time since March.

The Nasdaq, driven by its tech giants, is now within striking distance of erasing its year-to-date losses, having surged 30 per cent from its April low. This turnaround is nothing short of remarkable, especially considering the headwinds of early 2025: fears of a US economic slowdown, tariff-induced inflation, and a tech sector battered by concerns over AI hype and overvaluation.

Yet, here we are, with stocks like Nvidia and Tesla leading the charge, each gaining over four per cent today after a five per cent surge yesterday. Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta are also riding the wave, though Apple, Amazon, and Broadcom have hit a slight speed bump.

From my perspective, this tech-led rally is both exhilarating and unnerving. Nvidia’s dominance in the AI chip space and Tesla’s electric vehicle innovations have made them Wall Street darlings, but their meteoric rises raise questions about sustainability. The S&P 500’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signalling overbought conditions, a warning that the market may be due for a breather. I can’t help but feel a twinge of déjà vu, recalling past tech booms that promised endless growth only to stumble when valuations outpaced fundamentals.

Still, the broader economic context offers some reassurance. A government report showing US inflation at a four-year low in April suggests the Federal Reserve might have more room to manoeuvre, potentially pausing rate hikes or even signalling cuts later in 2025. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming remarks will be crucial, as investors hang on his every word for clues about monetary policy. For now, I’m cautiously bullish on tech, but I’d be keeping a close eye on earnings reports and macroeconomic data to gauge whether this rally has legs.

Across the pond, European markets are less enthusiastic. The FTSE 100, DAX, and Stoxx 600 each slipped by 0.2 per cent to 0.5 per cent, reflecting a broader pullback after a strong run fuelled by optimism over global trade progress. The Stoxx 600’s decline was led by consumer goods and healthcare, though banks and industrials held up better, buoyed by rising bond yields and infrastructure hopes. Standout performers like Burberry, which soared 17 per cent after a stellar Q4 update, show that individual companies can still shine amid a lackluster market.

Conversely, Alstom’s 17 per cent plunge on weak guidance underscores the risks of disappointing investors in a jittery environment. As someone who’s always admired Europe’s economic diversity, I find this mixed performance unsurprising. The continent is navigating its own challenges—Germany’s industrial output is up, but the UK housing market is slowing, and Norway’s central bank is holding rates steady as inflation lingers above target.

The prospect of US tariffs easing is a positive, but European investors seem to be locking in gains rather than betting on a sustained rally. I’d look for opportunities in undervalued sectors like industrials, where long-term growth potential might outweigh short-term volatility.

Commodities paint a more sobering picture. Spot gold, down 0.1 per cent to US$3,182 per ounce, is stabilising after a 2.3 per cent drop that took it to a one-month low. This pullback, driven by more substantial bond yields and a resilient US dollar, has dented gold’s safe-haven appeal. Brent crude, falling 1.3 per cent to US$65.25 per barrel, is reeling from profit-taking and concerns about demand recovery, especially after a report showed US crude inventories rising significantly. Iron ore, down 0.6 per cent to US$101.15 per tonne, is holding up better, supported by optimism about Asian construction demand, particularly in China.

As someone who’s always viewed commodities as a barometer of global economic health, I know these declines signal caution. The US-China trade deal should, in theory, boost demand for oil and metals, but the market seems skeptical about the pace of recovery. Gold’s retreat, meanwhile, suggests investors are less worried about systemic risks than they were earlier in the year. I’d watch China’s industrial activity and OPEC+ discussions closely, as they’ll likely dictate the next moves for oil and metals.

Then there’s the crypto market, where Bitcoin and Ethereum are stealing the spotlight. Bitcoin, up 0.2 per cent to US$103,780, is flirting with its all-time high, driven by institutional buying despite retail interest lagging. Analysts predict a surge in retail activity if Bitcoin breaks US$109,350, a level that could trigger FOMO-driven buying. Ethereum, at US$2,616, has been the real standout, surging over 50 per cent in May and pushing its market dominance toward 10 per cent.

However, warning signs are flashing: Ethereum’s RSI has been at its most overbought level since May 2021, and a bearish divergence on the four-hour chart hints at a possible 10-15 per cent correction. As someone fascinated by crypto’s evolution, I see this as a classic case of exuberance meeting reality. Ethereum’s rally, fuelled by its growing role in decentralised finance and NFTs, is impressive, but overbought signals suggest a pullback could be imminent.

Still, some analysts view this as a “buy-the-dip” opportunity, with targets of US$3,500-US$3,800 if support holds. I’m intrigued by the institutional-retail dynamic—while retail investors have been net sellers of Bitcoin in 2025, institutions are piling in, signalling confidence in crypto’s long-term potential. Given its fundamentals, I’d be cautious about jumping in at these levels but would consider accumulating on a dip, especially in Ethereum.

Looking beyond the numbers, I’m struck by the broader implications of this moment. The US-China trade deal is a rare bright spot in a year marked by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. It’s a reminder that diplomacy, however imperfect, can move markets. But the deal’s success hinges on follow-through—will Trump and Xi Jinping build on this momentum, or will old rivalries resurface?

Meanwhile, Asian markets show signs of fatigue, with Japanese and Australian stocks dipping as the Wall Street rally loses steam. China’s tech sector, exemplified by Tencent’s robust revenue growth, is a bright spot, but the broader region seems to be pausing for breath.

As a global citizen, I’m hopeful that easing trade tensions will foster stability, but I’m realistic about the challenges ahead. Inflation, while cooling, remains a wildcard, and the Fed’s next moves will be critical. Retail investors, whether in stocks or crypto, navigate a market that rewards boldness but punishes complacency.

In conclusion, the markets in May 2025 feel like a tightrope walk—exhilarating, precarious, and full of potential. The tech rally, trade deal optimism, and crypto surge are reasons to be hopeful, but overbought signals, commodity declines, and European caution remind us that nothing is certain.

From my vantage point, this is a time to stay informed, diversify, and be ready for volatility. Whether it’s buying the dip in Ethereum, eyeing undervalued European industrials, or waiting for clarity on Fed policy, the opportunities are there for those who tread carefully. As always, the market mirrors human hope and fear, and right now, it’s reflecting both in equal measure.

 

Source: https://e27.co/wall-street-soars-crypto-surges-2025-market-trends-explained-20250515/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j

Market wrap: Consumer confidence drops, markets rise, Bitcoin ETF soars

Market wrap: Consumer confidence drops, markets rise, Bitcoin ETF soars

US President Donald Trump’s softened stance on auto tariffs has led to persistent concerns over weakening US economic data. Reports that Trump signed orders to mitigate the impact of his auto tariffs through credits and relief on material levies, combined with hints from his trade team about a potential deal with a foreign trading partner, have bolstered risk sentiment.

This development has provided a temporary reprieve from the intense market volatility that has characterised much of April 2025, driven by fears of escalating trade wars. However, softer-than-expected US economic releases, including a widening trade deficit and declining consumer confidence, underscore the fragility of the current recovery.

As investors digest these mixed signals, major asset classes—from equities to bonds, commodities, and cryptocurrencies—are reflecting a market caught between hope for de-escalation and apprehension about economic slowdown. With key data releases like the US first-quarter GDP and China’s April manufacturing PMI on the horizon, the coming days promise to be pivotal for global markets.

The US equity markets closed Tuesday’s session with modest gains, reflecting the tentative optimism surrounding Trump’s tariff adjustments. The S&P 500 rose 0.58 per cent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.75 per cent, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.55 per cent.

These gains, while modest, mark a shift from the sharp sell-offs earlier in the month, when Trump’s aggressive tariff announcements sent the S&P 500 and Nasdaq into correction territory, with declines exceeding 10 per cent from their February highs. The Dow, less exposed to tariff-sensitive tech sectors, has been relatively resilient but still faced significant pressure, dropping nearly 12 per cent since Trump’s inauguration.

The market’s reaction to the tariff relief suggests investors are cautiously pricing in the possibility of negotiated trade deals, particularly after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signalled openness to discussions with foreign partners. However, the persistence of a 10 per cent baseline tariff on most imports and heightened duties on China (now at 145 per cent) keeps uncertainty alive, tempering the rally’s momentum.

Tuesday’s data releases painted a concerning picture. The US trade deficit widened to US$162.0 billion in March, up US$14.1 billion from February’s US$147.8 billion, reflecting the disruptive impact of tariffs on global trade flows. This widening gap, coupled with retaliatory tariffs from major partners like China (84 per cent on US goods) and the European Union, raises fears of a prolonged trade war that could further erode US export competitiveness.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 86.0 in April, marking its fifth consecutive monthly decline and hitting the lowest level since January 2021. This persistent erosion of consumer sentiment, driven by tariff-induced price increases and economic uncertainty, signals potential headwinds for consumer spending, a critical driver of US GDP.

Economists at Goldman Sachs have raised their recession probability to 35 per cent, citing tariffs as a significant drag on growth. These weak indicators contrast sharply with the market’s upbeat response to tariff relief, highlighting the disconnect between short-term sentiment and longer-term economic risks.

Fixed-income markets also reflected this cautious mood. The 10-year Treasury yield retreated 4 basis points to 4.17 per cent, and the 2-year yield fell 2 basis points to 3.65 per cent. This pullback follows a volatile period where yields surged to 4.4 per cent amid tariff-driven inflation fears. The decline in yields suggests investors are seeking safety in bonds, driven by concerns over economic slowdown and the potential for foreign governments to sell off Treasury holdings in retaliation for US tariffs.

The US Dollar Index, however, edged up 0.23 per cent to 99.24, supported by relative strength against a basket of currencies despite a broader weakening trend in 2025. The dollar’s resilience may reflect lingering confidence in US economic fundamentals, though its year-to-date decline of over five per cent underscores investor unease about tariff-induced disruptions.

Commodities markets, meanwhile, faced downward pressure. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, tumbled 0.8 per cent to US$3,315 per ounce as signs of easing US-China trade tensions reduced demand for hedges against uncertainty. Despite this dip, gold remains up 19 per cent in 2025, buoyed by earlier tariff-driven volatility that pushed prices above US$3,160 in March. Brent crude slid 2.44 per cent to US$64 per barrel, reflecting dual pressures: investor anticipation of an OPEC+ production increase and fears that tariffs will dampen global fuel demand.

The oil market’s decline, with Brent hitting a nearly four-year low earlier this month, underscores the broader economic concerns weighing energy markets. These commodity movements highlight the market’s sensitivity to policy shifts and macroeconomic trends, with oil particularly vulnerable to global growth expectations.

In Asia, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index rose 0.4 per cent on Tuesday, and most Asian equity indices opened higher on Wednesday, buoyed by the US market’s gains and hopes of de-escalating trade tensions. However, the region remains on edge, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 10 per cent for the first quarter and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng suffering a 13.2 per cent single-day drop earlier in April, its worst since 1997.

Constrained by Trump’s escalating tariffs, China’s markets have shown muted gains, with Goldman Sachs lowering its 2025 GDP growth forecast for China to four per cent from 4.5 per cent due to trade headwinds. The upcoming release of China’s April manufacturing PMI will be closely watched for signs of resilience or further slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.

The cryptocurrency market, meanwhile, offered a counterpoint to the broader caution. Bitcoin rose one per cent on Tuesday, approaching US$95,500 before encountering resistance. This uptick follows a volatile period where Bitcoin plunged 10 per cent to below US$78,000 after Trump’s initial tariff announcements. The current momentum, driven by anticipation of Trump’s trade deal rhetoric and his upcoming Michigan rally, suggests Bitcoin is benefiting from its perceived role as a hedge against policy uncertainty.

Posts on X have noted safe-haven flows into Bitcoin alongside gold during peak trade fears. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF set a record with US$970 million in single-day inflows, part of an eight-day buying spree in Bitcoin ETFs that underscores robust institutional demand. However, large redemptions from Fidelity and Ark Invest tempered aggregate deposits to US$591 million, indicating mixed sentiment among investors.

Altcoins outperformed Bitcoin, with Ethereum and Cardano gaining two per centeach, signalling a higher risk appetite among crypto investors. This divergence suggests a shift toward speculative assets, possibly driven by expectations of economic stimulus in response to weakening US labor and consumer data.

Job openings fell to 7.2 million in March, below the 7.5 million forecast, and consumer confidence hit a four-year low, conditions that historically precede Bitcoin rallies. Some analysts project Bitcoin could reach US$140,000 by October 2025 if stimulus measures materialise, though such forecasts hinge on unpredictable policy outcomes.

Looking ahead, the first reading of the US first-quarter GDP and China’s manufacturing PMI will be critical in shaping market direction. A weaker-than-expected GDP could amplify recession fears, potentially triggering further safe-haven flows into bonds and cryptocurrencies.

Conversely, a robust PMI from China could bolster Asian equities and ease concerns about global growth. Trump’s Michigan rally, where he is expected to tout his administration’s first 100 days, will also draw scrutiny for clues on trade policy and Bitcoin alignment, given his cabinet’s recent pro-crypto signals.

In my view, the market’s optimism is fragile, resting on the hope that Trump’s tariff relief and potential trade deals will avert a deeper economic downturn.

The persistent weakness in US economic data and the ongoing trade frictions with China suggest that volatility is far from over. Investors are right to remain cautious, as the interplay of tariffs, inflation, and consumer sentiment could tip the US economy into recession if not carefully managed.

The cryptocurrency market’s resilience, particularly Bitcoin and altcoins, offers a speculative outlet for risk-tolerant investors, but it is not immune to broader economic shocks. I see the coming weeks as a critical juncture, where clarity on Trump’s trade strategy and the trajectory of global growth will determine whether markets can sustain this tentative recovery or succumb to deeper uncertainty.

 

Source: https://e27.co/market-wrap-consumer-confidence-drops-markets-rise-bitcoin-etf-soars-20250430/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j