August 11th, 2025

Ether soars past US$4,300, gold hits US$3,400: Is a new duty rule about to crash the market?

A wave of cautious hope surrounding a potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire has buoyed global risk sentiment, propelling US stock markets to their strongest weekly performance since June. The S&P 500 climbed 0.8 per cent, the Nasdaq surged one per cent, and the Dow Jones edged up 0.5 per cent, primarily driven by a rally in big technology stocks. This optimism stems from reports of diplomatic engagements, including a confirmed meeting between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, which has sparked speculation about a possible de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Such a development could alleviate a significant geopolitical overhang, fostering a more favourable environment for risk assets. This positivity is tempered by uncertainties in US monetary policy, trade dynamics, and the evolving role of cryptocurrencies, particularly stablecoins, in reshaping global finance.

The US stock market’s recent gains reflect a broader market narrative of resilience amid geopolitical and economic crosscurrents. The technology sector, a perennial driver of market momentum, has been at the forefront, with companies like Nvidia and AMD playing pivotal roles. Reports indicate that these chipmakers have agreed to remit 15 per cent of their China chip sales revenue to the US government to secure export licenses, a move that underscores the intricate balance between national security and economic interests.

This agreement, while facilitating continued access to the lucrative Chinese market, has sparked debate about its legality under the US Constitution, which prohibits export taxes. Critics argue it could set a precedent for unconventional trade policies, while supporters view it as a pragmatic compromise to maintain technological competitiveness. The deal highlights the strategic importance of semiconductors in global trade, particularly as tensions between the US and China intensify. Despite these complexities, the tech-driven rally in US equities signals investor confidence in the sector’s long-term growth prospects, even as trade uncertainties loom.

In the bond market, US Treasuries experienced a decline last Friday, with yields rising by 3 to 5 basis points across the curve in a subdued trading session. Investors remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s leadership transitions, particularly President Trump’s nomination of Stephen Miran, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, for a Fed governor role. This appointment has fuelled speculation about a potential shift toward a more dovish monetary policy stance, as Miran’s economic philosophy aligns with Trump’s preference for lower interest rates to stimulate growth.

The US Dollar Index, which dipped 0.22 per cent, later recovered some ground following this news, reflecting market sensitivity to Fed leadership changes. The anticipation of upcoming inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due on Tuesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) report on Thursday, adds another layer of complexity.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, suggesting that a September rate cut is less likely and will hinge on macroeconomic data, have tempered expectations for immediate easing. These reports will be critical in shaping the Fed’s policy trajectory, as persistent inflationary pressures could force a more hawkish stance, impacting both equity and bond markets.

Geopolitical and policy developments have also swayed commodity markets. Gold prices surged to nearly US$3,400 per ounce after a US government agency ruled that gold bars would be subject to duties, triggering volatility in bullion markets. The White House’s promise of a forthcoming clarification has done little to quell uncertainty, as investors grapple with the potential cost implications for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Meanwhile, Brent crude prices remained unchanged after a volatile session, reflecting the market’s indecision amid ceasefire optimism and ongoing geopolitical risks. The stability in oil prices suggests a wait-and-see approach, as traders assess whether reduced tensions in Eastern Europe could ease supply concerns or if other global factors, such as US tariffs, might sustain price pressures.

In Asia, equity indices opened with mixed performance, signalling varied regional responses to global developments. US equity index futures, however, point to a positive opening, suggesting that the momentum from last week’s rally may persist. This divergence underscores the fragmented nature of global risk sentiment, where local economic conditions and policy responses shape market outcomes.

For instance, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has benefited from a recovery in Chinese technology stocks, driven by President Xi Jinping’s public engagement with tech leaders, signalling a potential easing of regulatory pressures. This contrasts with mainland China’s more subdued market performance, highlighting the nuanced dynamics within Asian markets.

The cryptocurrency market has emerged as a focal point of investor enthusiasm, propelled by significant policy shifts in the US Bitcoin soared past US$121,000, and Ethereum reached US$4,300, fuelled by President Trump’s executive order exploring the inclusion of cryptocurrencies in 401(k) retirement accounts. This move, which also considers private equity, could unlock substantial demand by opening millions of American retirement portfolios to higher-risk assets.

Spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have outpaced Bitcoin ETFs, attracting US$461 million in inflows over the past week, reflecting robust institutional interest. Ethereum’s price, now 11 per cent below its all-time high of US$4,878, may continue to outperform Bitcoin if these inflows persist. The influence of large corporate treasuries, as noted by industry expert Anndy Lian, underscores their role in driving price action. Lian’s assertion that investors should remain steadfast as long as these treasuries continue buying highlights the market’s reliance on institutional momentum.

Stablecoins, a subset of cryptocurrencies pegged to assets like the US dollar or Bitcoin, are reshaping the competitive landscape between the US and China. In Hong Kong, new legislation aims to position the city as a global hub for stablecoins and Web3 technologies, which leverage blockchain for decentralised internet applications. This strategic pivot seeks to restore Hong Kong’s stature as a financial powerhouse amid intensifying global competition.

In the US, the Trump administration’s embrace of cryptocurrencies, bolstered by campaign support from crypto advocates, signals a proactive approach to integrating digital assets into mainstream finance. The passage of stablecoin regulations in both jurisdictions underscores their potential to revolutionise global finance by offering stable, blockchain-based alternatives to traditional currencies. This rivalry carries risks, as stablecoins could disrupt monetary policy frameworks and challenge the dominance of fiat currencies like the dollar and renminbi.

From a personal perspective, the convergence of these developments paints a picture of a world at a financial crossroads. The optimism surrounding a potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire offers a glimmer of hope for stabilising global markets, but the path forward remains fraught with uncertainty. The US stock market’s resilience, driven by technology giants, reflects a broader trend of innovation outpacing geopolitical and economic headwinds. The reliance on tech stocks raises concerns about market concentration and vulnerability to sector-specific shocks.

The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on rate cuts, coupled with upcoming inflation data, suggests that monetary policy will remain a critical determinant of market direction. The cryptocurrency surge, particularly in stablecoins, signals a transformative shift toward decentralised finance, but it also introduces new risks, including regulatory ambiguity and market volatility. The US-China rivalry over stablecoins and Web3 technologies underscores the strategic importance of digital innovation, but it also highlights the potential for economic fragmentation if competitive tensions escalate.

As markets continue to evolve, adaptability and informed decision-making will be paramount in capitalising on emerging opportunities while mitigating inherent uncertainties.

Source: https://e27.co/ether-soars-past-us4300-gold-hits-us3400-is-a-new-duty-rule-about-to-crash-the-market-20250811/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

August 8th, 2025

Bitcoin soars to US$116K: Is US$200K next thanks to Trump?

Global risk sentiment has cooled recently, and the reasons are pretty clear. Investors are getting nervous about an overheated market, a phrase that surfaces when asset prices surge quickly, sometimes too quickly, sparking fears of a looming correction. After a robust rally across multiple markets, many are opting to lock in gains rather than push their luck.

This shift is evident in the US stock markets, which ended mixed overnight. The S&P 500 slipped 0.1 per cent, the Dow Jones dropped 0.5 per cent, while the Nasdaq climbed 0.4 per cent. To me, this divergence paints a picture: tech enthusiasts are still betting big, but other sectors are retreating, hinting at wider unease. It feels like a party where some are still grooving, yet others are inching toward the door.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England made waves on Thursday, trimming interest rates by 25 basis points to four per cent. The decision squeaked through with a 5-to-4 vote, underscoring the economic tightrope they’re walking. Governor Bailey shed some light, suggesting borrowing costs could keep drifting down since inflation might not linger.

However, he tempered that with a warning, noting the next cut’s timing remains up in the air. I see this as the BOE’s balancing act, supporting growth without rekindling inflation. For markets, this blend of decisiveness and hesitation adds complexity. Investors crave certainty, and Bailey’s cautious tone likely didn’t soothe many jitters.

US treasuries and the dollar’s dance

In the bond world, US Treasuries stumbled on Thursday after a tepid 30-year auction. Lackluster demand drove yields higher across the curve: the 30-year yield edged up 0.6 basis points to 4.826 per cent, the 2-year yield rose 1.4 basis points to 3.728 per cent, and the 10-year yield increased 1.2 basis points to 4.250 per cent.

What’s triggering this sell-off? I’d argue it’s investors reassessing their positions. Weak demand for long-term bonds often signals worries about future inflation or doubts about growth. People want more yield to commit their cash, and that ripples outward. This ties into those overheated market concerns, suggesting some are gearing up for turbulence.

The US Dollar Index throws in a curveball. It held steady on Thursday but dipped again on Friday, marking six straight sessions of losses, the longest streak since March 2024. A softening dollar stands out because it cuts both ways. It can boost US exports and pad corporate profits, yet it also hints at waning global faith, perhaps a drift from dollar assets. Combined with the Treasury sell-off, I wonder if investors are hunting for safer or juicier returns elsewhere.

Gold, oil, and Asian markets

Commodities offer their own narrative. Gold rose 0.8 per cent to US$3,396 per ounce, capitalising on the dollar’s slide. It’s a textbook play, when the dollar weakens, gold steps up as a safe haven. I view this as investors playing defence amid the uncertainty clouding stocks and bonds.

On the flip side, Brent crude fell 0.7 per cent to US$66.43 per barrel. Traders appear to be on edge, awaiting a Trump-Putin meeting. Given Russia’s oil clout, any news there could jolt supply and prices. I’d bet this dip is more about anticipation than a demand shift.

Asian stock markets sparked some optimism, ticking up at Friday’s open. US equity futures also hinted at a firmer stateside start. After Wall Street’s mixed cues, this feels like a cautious bounce. It suggests some are wading back in, perhaps thinking the profit-taking has peaked or that moves, like the BOE’s cut, might stabilise things. Still, it’s too early to call it a turnaround, more like a breather.

Bitcoin’s moment in the spotlight

Now, let’s focus on Bitcoin, which surged 1.87 per cent to US$116,731 in the last 24 hours, outpacing the broader crypto market’s 3.27 per cent gain. That’s a notable leap, and I think three key factors are at play: US policy shifts, corporate strategies, and technical signals. Let’s unpack them.

US policy tailwinds

US policy is shaking things up. Trump’s push to allow crypto in 401(k) accounts is ambitious. If it happens, it could tap into US$9 trillion in retirement funds for crypto. That’s massive, and it’s got institutions buzzing. Picture millions funnelling retirement savings into Bitcoin, and it’s a demand explosion. There’s also a draft executive order aiming to prevent banks from freezing out crypto firms.

Regulatory murkiness and banking woes have long hampered crypto’s mainstream rise, so this could open the floodgates for institutional cash. Plus, the GENIUS Act, targeting stablecoin rules, is on my radar. If it passes, it could bolster crypto stability. To me, these moves scream institutional green light, and Bitcoin’s price reflects that hope.

Corporate Bitcoin strategies

Companies are diving in deep. Cipher Mining has launched new Texas facilities, achieving a 16.8 EH/s capacity and holding US$112 million in Bitcoin. That stash strengthens the network and shrinks supply. Less Bitcoin floating around with steady or rising demand typically lifts prices.

Then there’s WiMi, a Nasdaq firm, pouring US$212 million into Bitcoin derivatives and short-term crypto bets. That’s not just hodling, it’s a calculated play, showing corporates are embracing crypto strategically. This is Bitcoin maturing from a fringe asset to a balance-sheet staple, a bullish sign.

Technical breakout setup

The charts are buzzing too. Bitcoin’s been forming a bullish flag since peaking at US$123,000 in July, a sharp rise followed by a consolidation, hinting at another jump. Support is solid at the 50-day moving average of US$113,154, a level traders obsess over.

Breaking US$117,350 could target that US$123,000 high again. The RSI at 56.55 suggests room to climb, though the MACD at -444.94 flashes bearish caution. I think it’s a toss-up: a breakout could ignite a rally, but a drop below US$113,000 might spark a pullback. Traders are likely salivating over the possibilities.

My point of view

So, what’s my take? The global market’s in an odd place, edgy but not collapsing. Profit-taking and the Treasury sell-off signal hedging, not a mass exodus. The BOE’s cut and Bailey’s wariness fit a world where inflation lingers like a stubborn guest. Gold’s rise and the dollar’s dip are classic safe plays, while oil’s drop feels like geopolitical suspense. Asian markets and US futures show grit, but I’d need more to call it a trend.

Bitcoin’s the one I can’t shake. Those US policy shifts could rewrite the game, drawing in big money like never before. Corporate moves from Cipher and WiMi reinforce that heavyweights are buying in. The technicals are tantalising, poised for a move, but direction’s unclear.

I’m bullish long-term, the fundamentals are compelling, yet I’d urge traders to watch those levels closely. We’re at a junction where macro nerves collide with crypto’s breakout shot. My hunch is Bitcoin’s got staying power, but the broader market’s still sorting itself out. Stay sharp.

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-soars-to-us116k-is-us200k-next-thanks-to-trump-20250808/

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

August 6th, 2025

The perfect storm: Jobs plunge, tariffs hit, and crypto volatility soars

Global risk sentiment has taken a noticeable hit recently, and it’s not hard to see why. A weaker-than-expected US ISM services PMI report for July, dropping to 50.1 from 50.8 in June, has raised eyebrows. Any reading below 50 signals contraction, and while 50.1 is just above that line, it’s a close call that suggests the services sector, a massive chunk of the US economy, is losing steam.

Firms are cutting jobs too, with the employment index plunging to 46.4, one of the lowest levels since the pandemic shook things up. This points to tepid demand and rising costs squeezing businesses, and it’s a red flag for anyone watching the broader economic picture.

Then there’s the trade situation, which feels like throwing fuel on an already flickering fire. President Trump has put out word that he’s gearing up to slap tariffs on chips and pharmaceuticals, with the latter starting small but potentially ramping up to a jaw-dropping 250 per cent down the road.

He’s also planning to hike tariffs on Indian goods substantially, and he means to do it fast, within the next 24 hours. These moves could rattle global supply chains, jack up prices for everything from tech to medicine, and sour trade ties with a big player like India. Markets hate uncertainty, and this is a textbook case of it.

The US stock markets didn’t waste time reacting. The S&P 500 dropped 0.5 per cent, the Dow Jones edged down 0.1 per cent, and the Nasdaq took a 0.7 per cent hit. Investors are clearly jittery, pulling back from riskier bets as they digest the economic slowdown signals and the tariff threats. US Treasuries, meanwhile, had a mixed day after two sessions of gains.

The 10-year yield ticked up 1.8 basis points to 4.210 per cent, while the 30-year yield slipped 1.1 basis points to 4.780 per cent. That split tells a story of its own, hinting at confusion over where interest rates and inflation might head next, especially with talk of a Federal Reserve rate cut picking up steam.

Speaking of the Fed, the US Dollar Index, or DXY, is hanging out near recent lows, closing slightly down at 98.78 after last Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. A softer dollar could give US exports a boost, but it also means imports might get pricier, which could stoke inflation just when the economy looks shaky. Gold, always a go-to when things feel uncertain, climbed 0.2 per cent, riding the wave of that weaker dollar and bets on a Fed rate cut coming soon.

On the flip side, Brent crude took a 1.3 per cent dive to US$67 a barrel, thanks to news that the Kremlin might pause air strikes to dodge Trump’s threat of secondary sanctions. That’s a geopolitical chess move that could steady oil prices or shift the conversation with the US, depending on how it plays out.

While the US markets nursed their wounds, Asian stock markets caught a second wind on Tuesday. Investors over there are feeling optimistic, pricing in a 90 per cent chance of a Fed rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. That kind of monetary easing could pump some life into global growth, and Asian markets opened higher this morning, shrugging off the gloom stateside. US equity index futures suggest a mixed open back home, so it’s clear the world’s not moving in lockstep on this one.

The crypto angle: Bitcoin, altcoins, and market mood

Now, let’s zoom in on the cryptocurrency market, where things are just as messy but with a twist of their own. Bitcoin recently slid to US$112,000, and normally, you’d expect altcoins to perk up when the big dog stumbles, maybe even kick off an altcoin season. That hasn’t happened this time. Solana’s down 9.45 per cent over the past week, XRP’s off 5.48 per cent, and Dogecoin’s taken a 10.80 per cent beating. The altcoin crowd isn’t catching a bid, and that’s got people wondering what’s up.

Over the last 30 days, Bitcoin’s dominance, its share of the total crypto market cap, has slipped by nearly 5.5 per cent. Meanwhile, Ether’s been on a tear, jumping 40 per cent. You’d think that might mean traders are diving into riskier assets, but the broader altcoin slump tells a different story. It looks more like folks are cashing out Ether’s gains rather than piling into the next big thing.

The OTHERS index, which tracks altcoins outside the top 10 by market cap, crashed 18.7 per cent in just 10 days before bouncing back a bit. That’s a clear sign of investors running from the high-risk, high-reward corners of the market, mirroring the cautious vibe globally.

Bitcoin itself is holding the spotlight, though, and not without reason. Its price just retested a key weekly uptrend line, a level that’s sparked big moves before. Back in early 2023, it broke out of a downtrend after a similar retest and shot up over 95 per cent. In 2024, it did it again, climbing 171 per cent past US$73,000.

Now, in August 2025, it’s bounced off that same ascending support, and analysts are eyeing a short-term target of US$123,300, with a longer-term goal of US$150,000. There’s even talk of an inverse head and shoulders pattern on a 2-day chart, a bullish setup that could push Bitcoin to US$170,000 if it plays out. Volume’s backing the breakout, moving averages are turning up, and the neckline at US$110,000 is holding as support. That’s a 40-50 per cent upside from where we sit, which is no small potatoes.

Adding fuel to the fire, a whale has placed a massive leveraged long bet on Bitcoin, and parabolic chart projections are floating around, hinting at another wild ride. Big bets like that can juice the market, but they also bring volatility, and a wrong move could spark liquidations. Still, the technicals are lining up for a potential rally, and history suggests this trendline retest could be the start of something big.

Piecing it together: What’s driving all this?

So, what’s the bigger picture here? The global risk retreat ties straight back to the US economy, showing cracks. The services sector slowdown and job cuts signal weaker growth ahead, and Trump’s tariff plans are stirring the pot, threatening to disrupt trade and hike costs. Stock markets in the US are feeling the heat, while Asia’s betting on a Fed lifeline to keep things humming. Gold’s up, oil’s down, and the dollar’s soft, all classic moves when uncertainty reigns.

In crypto, the story’s a bit split. Altcoins are floundering, suggesting investors are playing it safe or pocketing gains rather than chasing the next moonshot. Bitcoin, though, looks poised for a breakout, backed by solid technicals and some heavy hitters betting big. It’s a tale of two markets, caution on one side, opportunity on the other.

My take: Risks and rewards in a shaky world

Here’s where I weigh in. The US data is worrisome, no doubt, and those tariffs could make a challenging situation worse, hitting consumers and businesses alike. But the Fed’s got room to step in, and if they cut rates, it could cushion the blow and give markets a lift, especially outside the US. Asia’s already banking on that, and they might be onto something.

Crypto’s trickier. Altcoins look stuck, and I wouldn’t hold my breath for a sudden rally there. Too many folks are sitting on the sidelines or cashing out. Bitcoin’s another story. The setup feels legit, and if it breaks out, US$150,000 or even US$170,000 isn’t crazy talk. That said, the macro risks, like a deeper US slowdown or a trade war flare-up, could derail it. Leverage in the mix makes me nervous, too. Volatility cuts both ways.

For anyone playing these markets, it’s about balance. Keep an eye on the Fed, watch how those tariffs land, and don’t sleep on Bitcoin’s next move. Diversifying’s smart, there’s too much up in the air to go all-in anywhere.

Source: https://e27.co/the-perfect-storm-jobs-plunge-tariffs-hit-and-crypto-volatility-soars-20250806/