February 25th, 2025

Global markets on edge: Trade wars, tariffs, and crypto chaos in focus

It is clear that the world is navigating a complex and uneasy landscape. I will be sharing my observations for 25 February 2025. Monday’s choppy trading session on Wall Street painted a vivid picture of the uncertainty gripping investors, with major US equity indices finishing the day as a mixed bag.

The MSCI US index slipped 0.6 per cent, dragged lower by a 1.5 per cent drop in the information technology sector, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq took an even sharper hit, tumbling 1.2 per cent. What’s driving this jittery sentiment?

Trade war fears are casting a long shadow, fuelled by President Donald Trump’s latest comments on sweeping tariffs targeting imports from Canada and Mexico, set to kick in next week after a month-long delay expires. Add to that his memorandum aimed at curbing Chinese investment in key American sectors like tech and energy, and you’ve got a recipe for heightened global risk aversion.

Let’s start with the trade war angle, because it’s the elephant in the room. Trump’s insistence that tariffs on Canada and Mexico “will go forward” has sent ripples through markets already on edge. These aren’t small players—Canada supplies roughly 60 per cent of US crude oil imports, while Mexico is a critical cog in the North American supply chain, particularly for auto parts and manufacturing.

A 25 per cent tariff on these imports, as Trump has hinted, could jolt consumer prices for everything from gasoline to cars, stoking inflation fears at a time when the Federal Reserve is gearing up to digest key inflation data later this week. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a Fed favourite, is on the horizon, and any sign of tariff-driven price spikes could complicate its delicate balancing act between growth and inflation control.

Markets are already pricing in this tension, with US Treasury yields dipping slightly—10-year yields fell 2 basis points to 4.40 per cent, and 2-year yields hovered around 4.17 per cent. It’s a subtle shift, but it signals investors seeking safety amid the storm.

Across the Atlantic, there’s a glimmer of stability amidst the chaos. Germany’s federal election on Sunday delivered a win for Friedrich Merz and the conservative CDU/CSU coalition, a result that’s been met with cautious optimism. Merz’s victory sidesteps the extremes of populist upheaval, offering a steady hand to Europe’s largest economy at a time when trade tensions could easily spill over into the Eurozone.

German stocks have seen a modest lift from this outcome, though broader European indices like the Stoxx 600 haven’t escaped the tariff-related gloom, shedding 0.7 per cent earlier this week. It’s a reminder that while domestic politics can provide a buffer, the interconnectedness of global trade means no one’s fully insulated from Trump’s tariff salvo.

Over in Asia, the mood is decidedly sour. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index dropped 0.91 per cent on Monday, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s CSI 300 relinquishing early gains to close down 0.58 per cent and 0.22 per cent, respectively. Chinese tech stocks, already battered by regulatory scrutiny and a slowing domestic economy, took another hit as Trump’s memorandum targeting Chinese investment in US tech and energy sectors added fuel to the fire.

This isn’t just about tariffs—it’s a broader signal of escalating US-China rivalry, with strategic sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy caught in the crosshairs. Early trading in Asia this morning showed indices still in the red, though US equity futures are hinting at a potential rebound when Wall Street opens later today. It’s a classic push-and-pull—risk-off sentiment clashing with bargain-hunting optimism.

Commodities, meanwhile, are telling their own story. Gold climbed 0.4 per cent to a record high on Monday, a clear sign that safe-haven demand is surging as investors brace for turbulence. Brent crude nudged up 0.5 per cent, buoyed by fresh US sanctions on Iran and OPEC’s pledge to offset overproduction, though the bigger picture remains murky.

Tariffs on Canadian oil could tighten North American supply chains, potentially pushing prices higher, but a broader trade war might dampen global demand, pulling them back down. It’s a tug-of-war that’s keeping oil traders on their toes. The US Dollar Index, meanwhile, held steady at 106.66, reflecting a market that’s not yet ready to bet big on either a flight to safety or a risk-on rally.

Now, let’s pivot to the crypto corner, where the mood is even bleaker. Ether, Solana, and Dogecoin are reeling, down 5 per cent, 8.3 per cent, and 7 per cent respectively, as the sector licks its wounds from last week’s massive hack—the biggest in its history. Since mid-December, most altcoins have shed 30-80 per cent of their value, according to Arca, a digital asset manager.

Bitcoin’s holding up better, hovering around US$94,300, but the broader crypto market is under siege. The guilty plea from OKX, a major exchange, for violating US anti-money laundering laws doesn’t help—it’s a US$505 million reminder of the regulatory risks still haunting the space.

Yet, there’s a silver lining in South Korea, where the Financial Services Commission (FSC) just greenlit a roadmap for institutional investors to dive into digital assets. Starting in the second half of 2025, corporates can open real-name accounts to sell crypto for fiat, with plans to expand access gradually. Blockchain advisor Anndy Lian’s bold prediction—that this could vault South Korea to the top of global crypto trading by year-end—might seem ambitious, but it underscores the shifting tides in institutional adoption.

So, where does this leave us? From my vantage point, the global risk sentiment feels like a tightrope walk. The tariff threats are real and imminent, with Canada and Mexico bracing for impact next week. The US economy, already navigating a post-pandemic recovery, could face higher costs and slower growth if trade frictions escalate, though Trump’s camp would argue it’s a necessary move to protect American jobs.

China’s tech clampdown adds another layer of complexity, potentially accelerating a decoupling that’s been years in the making. Yet, there are counterweights—Germany’s political stability, South Korea’s crypto pivot, and the resilience of safe-haven assets like gold suggest pockets of calm amid the storm.

I can’t help but see this as a pivotal moment. The data backs up the unease: equity indices are faltering, yields are softening, and crypto’s taking a beating. But there’s also a case for cautious optimism—US futures are pointing up, and Asia’s losses could be a buying opportunity for the bold. My take? We’re in for a bumpy ride, but markets have a way of finding their footing.

The real test will come later this week with those US inflation numbers—if they’re hotter than expected, all bets are off. For now, I’d keep an eye on gold and the dollar, the quiet sentinels of a world holding its breath.

Source: https://e27.co/global-markets-on-edge-trade-wars-tariffs-and-crypto-chaos-in-focus-20250225/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

February 11th, 2025

Global risk sentiment holds steady amid tariffs, AI optimism, and crypto shifts

The financial landscape is navigating an ever-shifting environment, with risk sentiment holding steady despite significant macroeconomic developments on 11 February 2025.

One of the most notable events in recent days has been President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all steel and aluminium imports, a move that includes key trading partners like Mexico and Canada without any exemptions. This policy, enacted under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, has sent shockwaves through global markets, raising fears of potential trade conflicts and their broader economic fallout.

Trump has also hinted at the possibility of further increasing these tariffs and suggested the introduction of reciprocal tariffs, which could be announced as early as today or Wednesday. These developments have heightened market uncertainty as investors and analysts closely monitor whether these threats will materialise and how they might reshape global trade dynamics.

At the same time, the US corporate earnings season has provided a stabilising force, with strong performances from American companies reinforcing confidence in the economy’s underlying health.

However, the interplay between these macroeconomic and microeconomic factors, alongside other global trends such as Japan’s potential reclassification of cryptocurrencies and significant Bitcoin acquisitions by firms like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), paints a multifaceted picture of the current financial environment.

In this article, I will explore these developments in detail, analyse their potential impacts, and offer my perspective on how they shape the global risk sentiment.

Tariffs and market reactions

Let’s start with the tariff announcement, which has dominated financial news and market discussions in recent days. President Trump’s decision to impose a 25 per cent tariff on steel and aluminium imports under Section 232—a provision that allows the president to restrict imports deemed a threat to national security—marks a significant escalation in US trade policy.

Unlike previous tariff actions, which often included exemptions for key allies, this move explicitly excludes Mexico and Canada, two of the United States’ largest trading partners. This lack of exemptions has raised concerns, as it signals a more aggressive and unilateral approach to trade policy. Trump’s comments over the weekend and his warning that tariffs could “go higher” have added to the uncertainty, with market participants now bracing for the possibility of reciprocal tariffs.

Reciprocal tariffs, if implemented, would involve matching the tariff rates of other countries on US exports, potentially triggering retaliatory measures from affected nations. The timing of these potential announcements—possibly today or Wednesday—has kept markets on edge, as investors weigh the risks of a broader trade conflict.

From a market perspective, the immediate reaction to the tariff news has been varied. US equity indices, as measured by the MSCI US Index, rose by 0.7 per cent on Monday, with strong performances in the energy sector (+2.2 per cent) and information technology (+1.5 per cent). This resilience suggests that, for now, investors are focusing on the positive fundamentals of American companies rather than the potential negative impacts of tariffs.

The US earnings season has been particularly strong, with many companies surpassing expectations despite what analysts had considered a high bar. This strength in corporate fundamentals has provided a buffer against the macro uncertainties, supporting risk sentiment in the short term.

However, the longer-term implications of tariffs cannot be ignored. Tariffs on steel and aluminium could increase input costs for industries such as manufacturing, construction, and automotive, potentially squeezing profit margins and stoking inflation. If reciprocal tariffs are introduced, US exporters could face higher costs in foreign markets, further complicating the economic outlook.

Turning to the bond market, US Treasury yields ended Monday’s session with mixed results. Shorter-term yields, such as the two year and seven year, edged lower, reflecting some caution among investors about the near-term economic impact of tariffs.

Conversely, longer-term yields, including the 10-year (+0.2 basis points to 4.497 per cent) and 30-year (+1.4 basis points to 4.707 per cent), inched higher, suggesting that investors expect inflationary pressures from tariffs to persist over the longer term. This divergence in yield movements highlights the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next moves. Tariffs, by increasing costs and potentially delaying rate cuts, could complicate the Fed’s efforts to balance inflation and growth.

The US Dollar Index, meanwhile, rose by 0.3 per cent, reflecting safe-haven demand amid the tariff-related uncertainty. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, surged by 1.7 per cent to a fresh record high, underscoring investor concerns about geopolitical and economic risks. In the energy market, Brent crude oil prices rose by 1.6 per cent, supported by signs of a tighter market and geopolitical tensions, including Russia’s failure to meet its OPEC+ quota and rising natural gas prices in Europe.

Asian markets and crypto regulations

In Asia, the HSCEI index rose by 2.1 per cent for the third consecutive day, driven by optimism surrounding DeepSeek’s AI model and a perception that tariff tensions might be less severe than feared. However, early trading sessions on Tuesday showed mixed results for Asian equity indices, with US equity futures pointing to a lower open. This divergence highlights the uneven impact of tariff-related developments across regions.

While US markets have been buoyed by strong earnings, Asian markets remain more exposed to trade risks, given their reliance on exports. The resilience of risk sentiment in Asia, particularly in China, can also be attributed to positive developments in the AI sector, with companies like DeepSeek demonstrating resilience despite trade tensions. However, the broader implications of tariffs on global supply chains and economic growth remain a concern, particularly for export-dependent economies.

Shifting focus to other global developments, Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) is considering a significant regulatory change that could reclassify cryptocurrencies as securities. This potential shift, which could take effect by 2026, would have far-reaching implications for retail investors and the broader financial ecosystem. By classifying crypto as securities, Japan aims to strengthen investor protections, lower taxes on crypto investments, and enable domestic funds to invest in tokens.

This move could also pave the way for the approval of crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including spot Bitcoin ETFs, which would attract institutional capital and boost market liquidity. Posts on X have highlighted the FSA’s plans, with some users speculating on the potential for tax cuts and ETF approvals.

However, these reports remain inconclusive, and the FSA’s final decision will depend on a comprehensive review of existing regulations. If implemented, this reclassification could position Japan as a leader in the global crypto market, potentially offsetting some of the negative sentiment surrounding tariffs.

Another notable development in the crypto space is the recent acquisition by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) of 7,633 Bitcoin for US$742 million between February 3 and February 9, at an average price of US$97,255 per Bitcoin. The firm now holds 478,740 Bitcoin, worth over US$46 billion, with an average purchase price of US$65,033 per Bitcoin.

This acquisition, representing 2.2 per cent of Bitcoin’s total supply, underscores the growing institutional interest in cryptocurrencies as a store of value and hedge against inflation. Strategy’s aggressive Bitcoin strategy has been closely watched by investors, with some viewing it as a bullish signal for the crypto market.

However, the timing of this acquisition, amid tariff-related uncertainty and rising gold prices, raises questions about the firm’s risk management approach. While Bitcoin has historically been seen as a safe-haven asset, its volatility and correlation with risk assets like equities could complicate its role in a tariff-driven market environment.

Balancing risk and optimism

From my perspective, the current global risk sentiment is a delicate balance between optimism and caution. On one hand, the strength of US corporate earnings and positive developments in sectors like AI and crypto provide a foundation for resilience. The MSCI US Index’s gains, driven by energy and tech, reflect confidence in the underlying fundamentals of the economy.

Similarly, Japan’s potential reclassification of crypto and Strategy’s Bitcoin acquisition signal growing institutional acceptance of digital assets, which could support risk sentiment in the longer term. On the other hand, the tariff announcement and the threat of reciprocal tariffs introduce significant uncertainty.

Tariffs, by increasing costs and disrupting supply chains, could stoke inflation and weigh on economic growth. The mixed performance of US Treasury yields, the surge in gold prices, and the rise in Brent crude oil all point to heightened concerns about the macroeconomic outlook.

In my view, the key question for markets is whether the positive microeconomic factors—such as strong earnings and innovation in AI and crypto—can continue to offset the negative macroeconomic risks posed by tariffs. While US markets have shown resilience so far, the potential for retaliatory measures from trading partners like China, Mexico, and Canada could escalate tensions and disrupt global trade.

For Asia, the optimism surrounding DeepSeek’s AI model and less severe tariff fears may provide temporary relief, but the region’s exposure to trade risks remains a concern. Japan’s potential crypto reclassification, if implemented, could be a game-changer, attracting capital and boosting sentiment. However, the success of this move will depend on the FSA’s ability to balance investor protections with market growth. Strategy’s Bitcoin acquisition, while bullish for crypto, also highlights the challenges of navigating a volatile market environment.

In conclusion, the global risk sentiment is supported by a combination of strong corporate fundamentals and positive developments in AI and crypto, but it remains vulnerable to tariff-related uncertainties. President Trump’s tariff announcement, under Section 232, has introduced significant risks, with the potential for reciprocal tariffs adding to the complexity. While US markets have been buoyed by earnings, the longer-term implications of tariffs on inflation, growth, and trade dynamics cannot be ignored.

In Asia, optimism surrounding AI and crypto provides a counterbalance, but the region’s exposure to trade risks remains a concern. Japan’s potential crypto reclassification and Strategy’s Bitcoin acquisition are positive signals, but their impact will depend on broader market conditions. As markets navigate this busy macro news backdrop, the interplay between microeconomic resilience and macroeconomic risks will shape the trajectory of global risk sentiment in the coming weeks and months.

Source: https://e27.co/global-risk-sentiment-holds-steady-amid-tariffs-ai-optimism-and-crypto-shifts-20250211/

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

February 10th, 2025

The Trump effect: Steel tariffs, Bitcoin surge, and the future of crypto in Japan and beyond

Global financial markets are navigating a complex landscape shaped by geopolitical tensions, domestic policy shifts, and the ever-evolving dynamics of technological innovation. President Donald Trump’s recent pledge to impose tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports has sent ripples through global markets, exacerbating already jittery sentiments about trade tensions.

This policy announcement, with broader economic indicators and the rise of cryptocurrency-related developments, presents a multifaceted scenario that demands careful analysis. As a journalist committed to rigorous research and factual reporting, I aim to unpack these developments, offering a comprehensive view of their implications while critically examining the narratives surrounding them.

President Trump’s announcement of a 25 per cent tariff on steel and aluminium imports has undoubtedly heightened global risk sentiment. This move, which Trump did not specify regarding its effective date, has added a layer of uncertainty to an already tense economic environment. Commodity currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars have felt the immediate impact, depreciating as markets react to the potential for escalated trade conflicts.

Similarly, Asian equities have experienced declines, reflecting broader concerns about the ripple effects of these tariffs on global supply chains and economic stability. The timing of this announcement, just before Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s semiannual congressional testimony, further amplifies its significance as investors and policymakers alike scrutinise the potential monetary policy responses to these trade developments.

In the United States, financial markets have responded with caution and resilience. The MSCI US index edged lower by 0.9 per cent, with the Energy sector outperforming despite broader market declines. This resilience in the Energy sector can be attributed to relatively stable oil prices, with Brent crude hovering around US$75 per barrel, even as markets weigh the implications of the new tariffs.

Meanwhile, US Treasury yields have risen, with the 10-year yield increasing by 6.1 basis points to 4.49 per cent and the two year yield climbing by 7.8 basis points to 4.29 per cent. These movements suggest a market expectation of tighter monetary policy or heightened inflationary pressures, possibly in response to the tariffs. The US Dollar Index has held firm, gaining 0.3 per cent, while gold prices continue their upward momentum, approaching US$2,900 per ounce, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid uncertainty.

Across the Pacific, Asian equities have displayed a mixed performance, with early trading reflecting the cautious sentiment pervasive in global markets. However, US equity index futures suggest a modestly optimistic opening, implying a 0.3 per cent higher start for US stocks. This divergence highlights the nuanced reactions across different markets, shaped by local economic conditions and the varying degrees of exposure to US trade policies.

In Singapore, for instance, DBS Group Holdings Ltd. shares reached a record high, buoyed by the announcement of an investor payout plan. This development underscores the resilience of certain financial institutions in Southeast Asia, even as broader market sentiments remain tentative.

Amid these traditional financial market dynamics, the cryptocurrency space has emerged as a significant focal point, particularly in Asia. The Korea Exchange chairman’s push for the adoption of cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) reflects a growing recognition of digital assets as a potential driver of market growth.

South Korea, a nation known for its technological innovation and significant cryptocurrency adoption, stands at a critical juncture. Embracing crypto ETFs could position the country as a leader in this burgeoning financial sector, potentially attracting substantial foreign investment and fostering innovation. However, this move also carries risks, including regulatory challenges and the inherent volatility of digital assets, which could undermine financial stability if not managed carefully.

The meteoric rise of Metaplanet Inc., a Japanese company that has pivoted from hotel management to Bitcoin investment, exemplifies the transformative potential of cryptocurrencies. Shares of Metaplanet have soared by over 4,000 per cent in the past year, making it the top-performing stock among Japanese equities and one of the highest globally. This extraordinary performance is largely attributed to the ripple effects of President Trump’s pro-crypto agenda, which has fuelled a surge in Bitcoin demand in Japan.

Metaplanet’s strategic shift to adopting Bitcoin as a primary treasury reserve asset, inspired by the playbook of MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor, has resonated with investors, particularly in a context where traditional financial assets are facing heightened uncertainty. The company’s ambitious plans to acquire 21,000 Bitcoin by 2026, supported by a US$745 million capital raise, further underscore its commitment to this strategy, positioning it as a potential leader in Asia’s cryptocurrency landscape.

However, this rapid ascent is not without its complexities. The volatility of Bitcoin, which recently hit a record high of US$109,241 before partially retracing, poses significant risks for companies like Metaplanet. Moreover, the high capital gains taxes on direct Bitcoin purchases in Japan—up to 55 per cent—make investing in stock proxies like Metaplanet an attractive alternative for small-scale and first-time buyers, particularly through programs like the Nippon Individual Savings Account. This tax structure, combined with the broader market dynamics influenced by Trump’s trade policies, creates a unique environment where investors navigate traditional and digital asset markets with heightened caution.

President Trump’s apparent obsession with cryptocurrencies, evidenced by his administration’s pro-crypto stance, has broader implications for global financial markets. Some analysts argue that Trump’s pledge to overhaul US financial regulations could present opportunities for the UK to lead in the crypto space in the United Kingdom. With its robust financial infrastructure and history of regulatory innovation, the UK is well-positioned to capitalise on any shifts in US policy that might create regulatory gaps or opportunities.

However, this optimism must be tempered by critically examining the challenges involved, including the need for robust regulatory frameworks to protect investors and ensure market stability. The UK’s ability to lead in this space will depend on its capacity to balance innovation with prudent oversight, a task made more complex by the global nature of cryptocurrency markets.

From my perspective, the interplay between traditional financial markets and the cryptocurrency sector underscores a broader shift in the global economic landscape. President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium, while aimed at protecting domestic industries, risk exacerbating global trade tensions and economic uncertainty.

This uncertainty, in turn, drives investors toward alternative assets like gold and Bitcoin, which are perceived as hedges against traditional market volatility. However, the rapid rise of companies like Metaplanet and the push for crypto ETFs in South Korea highlights the transformative potential of digital assets, even as they introduce new risks and regulatory challenges.

Critically examining the establishment narrative, it is essential to recognise that the enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies, particularly in the context of Trump’s policies, is not without its pitfalls. The volatility of digital assets, the potential for regulatory overreach, and the risk of market manipulation are significant concerns that must be addressed.

Moreover, the reliance on Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset, as seen with Metaplanet, raises questions about long-term sustainability and the broader implications for corporate governance and financial stability. While the allure of high returns is undeniable, the risks associated with such strategies cannot be overlooked.

In conclusion, the current global financial landscape is a tapestry of interconnected developments, from traditional trade policies and market dynamics to the disruptive potential of cryptocurrencies. President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium have heightened global risk sentiment, driving investors toward safe-haven assets and alternative investments like Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, the rise of Metaplanet in Japan and the push for crypto ETFs in South Korea reflect the growing influence of digital assets in shaping economic strategies. As these trends unfold, policymakers, investors, and journalists alike must approach them with a critical eye, balancing optimism with a rigorous assessment of the risks and opportunities they present.

The future of global finance will likely be defined by how effectively we navigate these complexities, ensuring that innovation is harnessed responsibly and sustainably.

Source: https://e27.co/the-trump-effect-steel-tariffs-bitcoin-surge-and-the-future-of-crypto-in-japan-and-beyond-20250210/