Markets on the move: Trade talks, housing slumps, and crypto whales stirring

Markets on the move: Trade talks, housing slumps, and crypto whales stirring

The European Union and the United States are inching closer to a trade deal that’s been keeping everyone on edge. The big headline is a proposed 15 per cent tariff on EU goods heading into the US. That’s a hefty number, but it’s not as brutal as the 30 per cent or even 50 per cent tariffs that were floating around earlier in Trump’s talks.

According to Reuters, diplomats say this deal might mirror one the US just struck with Japan, with some carve-outs for things like aircraft, alcoholic spirits, and medical devices. The EU’s been scrambling to make this palatable, offering to drop its own tariffs to zero on certain items. It’s a high-stakes chess game, and the final move depends on what Trump scribbles on his notepad next.

But the EU isn’t just sitting back waiting for the hammer to drop. They’ve got a counterpunch ready: €93 billion in tariffs on US goods, set for a vote this Thursday. Think poultry, cars, planes, and even tech services, all in the crosshairs. France is pushing hard for this, and there’s broad support to flex the EU’s anti-coercion tool if Trump cranks the tariffs up to 30 per cent. It’s a bold stance, showing the EU is not afraid to hit back. I think this brinkmanship could either force a better deal or spark a messy trade war, depending on how far each side’s willing to push.

Across the Pacific, Japan’s playing a different game. They’ve pledged a massive US$550 billion investment in the US, opening their markets to American goods as part of a new trade pact. That’s a huge win for the US, and it’s got a ripple effect, with a deal involving the Philippines in the mix too. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent seems pretty chill about it all, saying there’s no rush to shake up the Federal Reserve leadership. It’s a sign the focus is squarely on trade and growth right now.

Closer to home, the US housing market’s throwing us a curveball. Existing-home sales dropped 2.7 per cent in June 2025, hitting an annual rate of 3.93 million units, the lowest since September 2024. Analysts were expecting 4.01 million, so this miss stung. Single-family homes took the brunt, falling three per cent, while condos and co-ops held steady at 360,000 units.

Here’s the kicker: despite fewer sales, the median home price soared to a record US$435,300. To me, that screams affordability issues. People want homes, but the prices are out of reach, and it’s a red flag for the broader economy if this keeps up.

Equities: Markets riding the trade wave

Now, let’s talk stocks, because the markets are loving this trade optimism. In the US, it’s a mixed bag but mostly upbeat. On Wednesday, the Dow climbed 1.14 per cent, the S&P 500 gained 0.78 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.61 per cent, all fuelled by hopes of smoother trade relations and solid earnings from big players.

Thursday’s futures were a bit of a rollercoaster, though. Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures ticked up 0.4 per cent and 0.1 per cent, thanks to Alphabet jumping two per cent. But Tesla’s 4.5 per cent tumble after weak auto revenue numbers and IBM’s five per cent slide from missing Q2 software targets dragged Dow futures down 0.3 per cent. It’s a tug-of-war, but the overall vibe is positive.

Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng’s on fire, surging 408 points, or 1.6 per cent, to 25,538 on Tuesday. That’s four straight gains and the highest close in nearly four years. Everything from tech to consumer goods is riding the wave, and traders are buzzing about upcoming US-China talks in Stockholm. Add in rising turnover in China’s markets and a four-month peak in margin financing, and you’ve got a recipe for bullishness.

Japan’s stealing the show, though. The Nikkei 225 rocketed 3.51 per cent to 41,171, and the Topix jumped 3.18 per cent to 2,926 on Wednesday, hitting one-year highs. Trump’s trade deal with Japan, tied to that US$550 billion investment and a 15 per cent tariff on their exports, lit the fuse.

Automakers went wild, Toyota up 14.3 per cent, Honda 11.2 per cent, and Nissan 8.3 per cent. Financials and industrials joined the party too. I see this as a classic case of markets betting big on trade unlocking growth, but it’s worth wondering if the hype might cool if deals stall.

FX, commodities and fixed income

Switching gears to currencies, the Australian dollar’s having a moment, climbing to 66 cents. That’s a nice little lift, and it’s all about the risk-on mood sweeping through markets. When trade talks look promising, investors get bold, and the Aussie dollar tends to catch that wind. It’s a small but telling sign of how interconnected these global shifts are.

In the commodities corner, US copper futures are flexing some serious muscle, hitting a record premium of nearly 30 per cent over London Metal Exchange prices. Why? Supply’s tight, demand’s up from infrastructure projects, and trade tensions are messing with the usual flow. Copper’s a bellwether for industrial activity, so this spike tells me the US economy’s got some juice, even if it’s wrestling with global disruptions.

For the bond crowd, the 10-year US Treasury yield’s making waves, climbing back above its 200-day average. That’s a shift worth noting. It suggests investors are feeling more confident about growth, shrugging off the housing slump for now. Higher yields can mean tougher borrowing costs ahead, but they also reflect a bet on a stronger economy. I’m curious how long this optimism holds if trade talks hit a snag.

Crypto: The Bitcoin whale stirs

Finally, let’s dive into the wild world of crypto. A Bitcoin whale just made headlines, moving a US$469 million stash after sitting on it for 14 years. Back in 2011, this investor, or maybe a company, scooped up over 3,962.6 BTC, per Arkham Intelligence data. It barely budged until Thursday morning Eastern Time, when it shifted to a fresh wallet with no prior action. No exchange tags, no big clues, just a massive move that’s got everyone guessing. Is it a cash-out? A security shift? We don’t know yet.

Bitcoin’s been flirting with a breakout, but it’s stuck under a key ceiling on the long-term power law chart. This isn’t your typical indicator, it uses logarithmic scales on price and time to map BTC’s wild ride. Right now, US$122,000 is the line in the sand. Break that, and we could see a full-on bull run. I think this whale’s timing is no coincidence; it’s a signal that big players are watching the same levels we are. Crypto’s still a rollercoaster, but moments like this remind us how much potential and risk are baked in.

My take on all this

Stepping back, I see a world economy that’s buzzing with possibility but teetering on some shaky ground. The trade deals with the EU, Japan, and beyond are pumping life into stocks and currencies, and that’s exciting. Copper’s premium and rising yields back up the growth story. But the housing data’s a buzzkill, affordability’s a real hurdle, and it could drag consumer spending down if it festers. Crypto’s a wildcard, that whale move could be a spark or just noise.

My gut says we’re in a sweet spot for now, but any misstep in trade talks could flip the script fast. What do you think, are we riding a wave or waiting for a wipeout? Either way, it’s a hell of a ride!

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/markets-on-the-move-trade-talks-housing-slumps-and-crypto-whales-stirring-20250725/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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What’s next for markets: Navigating trade threats, earnings, crypto and central bank signals

What’s next for markets: Navigating trade threats, earnings, crypto and central bank signals

Reports indicate that US President Donald Trump has intensified his demands on the EU, pushing for tariffs of at least 15 per cent to 20 per cent on imports from the bloc after weeks of negotiations aimed at securing a new trade deal. This bold move has subdued global risk sentiment, as investors grapple with the prospect of a potential trade war that could disrupt supply chains, elevate costs, and hinder economic growth worldwide.

I view this as a pivotal moment that could redefine international trade dynamics and impact a broad range of markets, from equities to cryptocurrencies.

The catalyst: Trump’s tariff demands and their broader implications

Trump’s escalation of tariff demands marks a significant shift in US-EU trade relations. After weeks of talks, the insistence on a 15 per cent – 20 per cent tariff suggests a hardening stance, potentially unravelling years of efforts to maintain relatively open trade between these economic powerhouses. This move reflects a broader strategy of economic nationalism, prioritising domestic industries over global cooperation.

However, it’s a high-stakes gamble. The EU, a major trading partner for the US, may retaliate with its tariffs, sparking a tit-for-tat escalation that history shows rarely benefits anyone in the long run. The mere threat of such a trade war has already injected uncertainty into markets, as businesses and investors brace for higher costs and reduced profitability.

The global risk sentiment, already fragile due to geopolitical tensions and uneven post-pandemic recovery, has taken a noticeable hit. Investors are shifting toward a risk-off stance, prioritizing safety over chasing high returns. It isn’t surprising that trade wars tend to dampen economic growth by disrupting the flow of goods and increasing inflationary pressures.

My view is that while Trump’s demands may aim to protect American jobs, they risk alienating allies and destabilizing an interconnected global economy at a time when resilience is sorely needed. Let’s examine how this sentiment is unfolding across various markets.

Equity markets: A mixed bag of caution and resilience

The major US equity indexes closed last Friday with a mixed performance, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff threats. The S&P 500 dipped slightly by 0.01 per cent, a negligible decline that hints at cautious optimism in some corners.

The Nasdaq, buoyed by tech-heavy stocks, edged up by 0.05 per cent, suggesting that investors still see resilience in technology sectors less immediately tied to trade flows. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.32 per cent, reflecting greater concern among traditional industries, like manufacturing, that could bear the brunt of tariff-related disruptions.

Looking beyond the US, Asian equity markets ended mostly higher last Friday but opened mixed in today’s early trading session. This inconsistency mirrors the global nature of the trade tensions, with some regions hopeful for a resolution and others wary of the fallout.

Interestingly, US equity index futures are pointing to a higher open today, which could indicate a short-term rebound or simply a pause in the pessimism. From my perspective, this mixed response suggests that while markets aren’t in full panic mode, there’s an undercurrent of unease.

Investors appear to be hedging their bets, waiting for clearer signals, perhaps from upcoming earnings or policy announcements, before committing fully to a bullish or bearish outlook.

Bond markets: A flight to safety

The bond market offers a clearer picture of investor sentiment. Yields on US Treasuries ended lower last Friday, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping four basis points to 4.42 per cent and the two-year yield falling by the same margin to 3.87 per cent. Since yields move inversely to bond prices, this decline signals a surge in demand for these safe-haven assets.

Two factors appear to be driving this shift: dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and lower-than-expected consumer inflation expectations from the University of Michigan sentiment survey.

Waller’s comments likely hinted at a more accommodative monetary policy, a soothing prospect amid trade uncertainties. The Michigan survey, showing tempered inflation outlooks, further eases pressure on the Fed to hike rates aggressively, making Treasuries even more attractive.

In my opinion, this flight to safety underscores a market bracing for turbulence. Investors are prioritising capital preservation over riskier bets, a classic response to geopolitical and economic headwinds. It’s a prudent move, but it also highlights the fragility of confidence right now.

Currency and commodities: Safe havens shine

The foreign exchange and commodities markets are equally telling. The US Dollar Index slipped by 0.27 per cent, a modest retreat that aligns with the dovish Fed signals and a broader risk-off mood. A weaker dollar often accompanies uncertainty, as investors diversify into other currencies or assets. Gold, the quintessential safe-haven, rose by 0.4 per cent to US$3,353 per ounce, a clear sign of heightened anxiety.

I see this uptick as a natural reaction, gold thrives when trust in fiat currencies or economic stability wavers, and Trump’s tariff demands certainly fit that bill.

Meanwhile, Brent crude oil edged down by 0.3 per cent, a subtle but significant move. Oil prices are sensitive to demand expectations, and this dip suggests markets are factoring in a potential economic slowdown if trade barriers escalate. These shifts, while small, are early warning signs. If trade tensions persist, we could see more pronounced movements in commodities, particularly if global growth forecasts sour.

Cryptocurrencies: A divergent path

Turning to cryptocurrencies, the picture is more nuanced. Bitcoin, after reaching a record high of US$123,218 last week, has entered a consolidation phase between US$116,000 and US$120,000. As of Monday, it’s trading around US$117,800.

Technical indicators paint a cautious outlook: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has fallen from an overbought level of 70 to 64, signalling a fading of bullish momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) nears a bearish crossover. If Bitcoin slips below US$116,000, it might retest its 50-day Exponential Moving Average at US$110,297. But a close above US$120,000 could spark a rally back toward its peak.

Ethereum, by contrast, is showing strength. It surged 26.40 per cent last week, closing above a key resistance at US$3,730 on Sunday, and hovers around US$3,739 as of Monday. With an RSI of 86, well into overbought territory and a bullish MACD crossover from early July still holding, Ethereum’s momentum is robust. If it holds above US$3,730, the US$4,000 mark is within reach. Ripple’s XRP, finding support at US$3.40, also hints at a potential rally continuation.

From my perspective, cryptocurrencies are carving out a distinct narrative. Unlike traditional markets, they’re less directly tied to trade policies, offering a hedge against uncertainty. Ethereum’s surge, in particular, suggests that investor appetite for digital assets remains strong, perhaps driven by innovation and decentralisation rather than macroeconomic fears. That said, Bitcoin’s sideways trading reflects indecision; traders are waiting for a catalyst, and Trump’s tariffs could indirectly sway sentiment if they tank broader markets.

A noteworthy development in this context is Block, co-founded by Jack Dorsey, joining the S&P 500 index this week. Formerly Square, Block is deeply entrenched in the crypto space through its Bitkey self-custody Bitcoin wallet and Proto Bitcoin mining products.

Since last summer, it has been reinvesting 10 per cent of its Bitcoin profits in BTC on a monthly basis and has open-sourced its treasury blueprint. This move not only elevates Block’s profile but also bridges the traditional finance and cryptocurrency sectors. It’s a sign of the growing legitimacy of digital assets. Block’s inclusion could bolster confidence in Bitcoin, especially if trade tensions prompt investors to seek alternative stores of value.

Looking ahead

The week ahead will be critical. The US earnings season expands to include the ‘Magnificent Seven’ tech giants: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla. Their performance could either offset trade-related gloom or amplify it if results disappoint.

The European Central Bank meets Thursday, with rates expected to hold steady, but its commentary will be dissected for clues on how it views the tariff threat. Economic data, from inflation to manufacturing, will also shape the narrative.

This is a time for vigilance. The interplay of earnings, central bank moves, and economic data will either stabilise markets or deepen the uncertainty. I’d lean toward a balanced approach of holding safe havens like gold and Treasuries while keeping an eye on crypto’s upside potential.

Non-financial advice as always.

 

Source: https://e27.co/whats-next-for-markets-navigating-trade-threats-earnings-crypto-and-central-bank-signals-20250721/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j

Trump’s trade barriers and crypto bets: Rewriting the rules of global markets

Trump’s trade barriers and crypto bets: Rewriting the rules of global markets

I’ve been closely following the latest developments surrounding US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and cryptocurrency policies, especially as they unfold in 2025. The query at hand calls for a comprehensive analysis of how these policies are shaping global markets, and I’m eager to dive into the data, reflect on the implications, and offer my perspective.

With Trump’s recent announcement of heightened blanket tariffs and his administration’s surprising embrace of cryptocurrencies, the world is witnessing a fascinating interplay of protectionism and financial innovation.

Trump’s tariff escalation: A seismic shift in global trade

Let’s start with the tariffs, which have once again thrust trade tensions into the spotlight. On Thursday, in an interview with NBC News, President Trump revealed plans to ramp up blanket tariffs on most US trading partners from the current 10 per cent to a proposed 15 per cent or even 20 per cent. This escalation builds on an already aggressive trade stance, which saw the average applied US tariff rate climb to an estimated 27 per cent between January and April 2025, a level unseen in over a century.

But Trump didn’t stop there; he also singled out Canada, threatening a 35 per cent tariff on its imports starting in August, with a warning that retaliation would trigger even higher rates. This isn’t just rhetoric; it’s a calculated move to protect American industries and address trade imbalances, though the consequences are rippling far beyond US borders.

The immediate market reaction was telling. Global risk sentiment took a hit on Friday morning, with Asian equity indices trading flat and US equity futures signalling a lower open. This follows a volatile period earlier in the year when Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs,” dubbed “Liberation Day” on April 2, 2025, sent shockwaves through financial markets. Japan’s Nikkei 225, for instance, plummeted 7.8 per cent in a single day, and analysts now project a 0.8 per cent reduction in Japan’s GDP due to these measures.

Export-dependent economies like South Africa are scrambling to diversify their markets, while major trading partners, China, Canada, and the European Union, have retaliated with their own tariffs. China’s duties on US goods have soared to 125 per cent, and Canada has slapped a 25 per cent tariff on non-USMCA-compliant vehicles. This tit-for-tat escalation is fracturing global trade networks, and it’s hard not to see the parallels with the trade wars of Trump’s first term.

Economically, the tariffs are a double-edged sword. On the downside, they’ve driven up costs across the board. In the US, consumer prices rose by 2.4 per cent in 2025, with apparel prices surging 17.0 per cent and food costs increasing by 2.6 per cent. Businesses, caught in the crossfire, are passing these higher import costs onto consumers or absorbing them at the expense of profit margins.

Supply chains, already strained by years of disruption, are being forced to adapt yet again. Some companies are relocating production, others are seeking alternative suppliers, and many are simply scaling back.

The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its 2025 global growth forecast, citing these tariffs as a key factor, and there’s a growing chorus warning of a potential recession. For the US itself, estimates suggest a long-term GDP hit of up to eight per cent, a steep price to pay for protectionism.

There’s an upside, or at least an intended one. Trump’s tariffs aim to shield domestic industries, particularly manufacturing, from foreign competition. By making imported goods more expensive, the policy could stimulate domestic production and job growth.

Steel and aluminum tariffs, now at 50 per cent, and a 25 per cent duty on imported cars are designed to breathe new life into American factories. Whether this will work in practice is debatable—supply chain complexities and higher costs could offset any gains but the intent is clear. I can’t help but wonder if this is a last stand against an unstoppable tide or a genuine pivot toward self-reliance.

The cryptocurrency boom: Trump’s unexpected ally

Now, let’s pivot to a very different story: Trump’s embrace of cryptocurrencies, which has sent shockwaves of another type through global markets. On Thursday, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of US$116,046.44, breaking its earlier record of US$113,734.64, and it’s up 24 per cent for the year. This rally isn’t just a fluke. It’s fuelled by a combination of institutional demand and a policy shift that’s caught many by surprise.

Back in March 2025, Trump signed an executive order establishing a strategic reserve of cryptocurrencies, a bold signal that the US government is no longer just tolerating digital assets but actively endorsing them. Add to that the appointment of crypto-friendly figures like SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins and White House AI czar David Sacks, and you’ve got a regulatory environment that’s rolling out the red carpet for blockchain innovation.

The drivers behind this surge are multifaceted. A weakening US dollar, with the Dollar Index hovering at 97.576, has investors seeking alternatives. Global liquidity is abundant, and institutional capital is pouring in, think hedge funds, pension funds, and even banks jumping on the crypto bandwagon.

Galaxy’s analysis of market dynamics since June 2025 points to geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainty as catalysts, with Bitcoin emerging as a standout performer. When Trump’s tariff announcement briefly sent Bitcoin below US$76,000 amid a broader risk-off move, it quickly rebounded, underscoring its resilience. Binance CEO Richard Teng and VanEck’s Mathew Sigel are bullish, suggesting Bitcoin could become a reserve asset if the dollar’s dominance wanes further.

For global markets, this is a game-changer. Cryptocurrencies are no longer a fringe experiment. They’re increasingly seen as a hedge against traditional market risks. Gold, up 0.3 per cent to US$3,324.63 per ounce, is still a safe haven, but Bitcoin’s meteoric rise suggests it’s stealing some of that thunder.

The potential is enormous: greater adoption could drive financial inclusion, spur innovation, and even reshape cross-border trade. Imagine a world where businesses use crypto to bypass tariff-laden banking systems, cutting costs and speeding up transactions.

However, there are risks as well; volatility remains a hallmark of the market, and regulatory gaps leave room for fraud and manipulation. Plus, the energy demands of crypto mining are a growing environmental headache, something I’ve seen spark heated, albeit with less focus than it deserves.

The interplay: Tariffs meet crypto in a global tug-of-war

Here’s where it gets really interesting: how do tariffs and cryptocurrencies interact? At first glance, they seem like opposites—one rooted in old-school protectionism, the other a symbol of borderless innovation. But dig deeper, and there’s a fascinating dynamic at play. The economic uncertainty sparked by tariffs could be turbocharging crypto’s appeal.

When trade tensions flare and markets wobble, as seen in Friday’s retreat in global risk sentiment, investors often look for hedges. Bitcoin’s decentralised nature, unbound by any single economy, makes it an attractive refuge. I’ve seen this before, during the 2018-2019 US-China trade war, when Bitcoin surged as traditional assets faltered. In 2025, with tariffs hitting harder, that pattern could intensify.

Conversely, crypto might soften the tariffs’ blow. If businesses adopt blockchain for cross-border payments, they could sidestep some of the costs and delays tied to traditional finance. A US importer facing a 20 per cent tariff on goods might use crypto to settle with a supplier faster and cheaper, easing the sting.

But let’s not overstate this, crypto’s still young, and its scale is limited. Most trade still flows through banks, and regulatory hurdles loom large. Additionally, the tariffs could indirectly harm crypto; higher costs for imported mining equipment from China, for instance, might squeeze miners and developers.

If I had to bet, I’d say crypto’s rise will outlast the tariff storm, though not without a wild ride.

For now, buckle up!

 

Source: https://e27.co/trumps-trade-barriers-and-crypto-bets-rewriting-the-rules-of-global-markets-20250711/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j