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Gold jumps 6.1 per cent to US$4,946 as geopolitical tensions override dollar weakness: What about Bitcoin?

Gold jumps 6.1 per cent to US$4,946 as geopolitical tensions override dollar weakness: What about Bitcoin?

Investors grew cautious about artificial intelligence potentially creating fiercer competition within the software sector, which kept sentiment fragile even as the partial United States government shutdown concluded late Tuesday after President Trump signed a funding agreement negotiated with Senate Democrats.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia made a decisive move by raising its key interest rate to 3.85 per cent from 3.60 per cent, marking the first major economy to tighten monetary policy this year after determining that inflation pressures remained stubborn enough to require renewed restraint. This divergence in global central bank approaches highlights an uneven economic landscape, with some regions facing persistent price pressures while others are preparing for easing cycles later this year.

United States equities retreated decisively, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.34 per cent, the S&P 500 dropping 0.84 per cent, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite declining 1.43 per cent. The selloff centred on software stocks following Anthropic’s release of Claude Co-work plug-ins, which amplified fears about competitive disruption in an already crowded artificial intelligence ecosystem.

Investors rotated capital toward economically sensitive sectors seeking broader exposure beyond concentrated technology holdings. This shift pushed the VIX Index to 18.00, its highest level in two weeks, signalling rising anxiety about near-term market direction. The uneven nature of the United States’ recovery suggests merit in considering alternatives to the standard S&P 500, such as an equal-weighted index or low-volatility strategies that provide more balanced sector representation while maintaining exposure to select cyclicals, such as financials and industrials, alongside defensive healthcare segments.

Treasury yields moved lower as the equity selloff gathered momentum, with the two-year note falling 0.2 bps to 3.570 per cent and the 10-year yield declining 1.2 bps to 4.265 per cent. This inverse relationship between stocks and bonds reflected a classic risk-off rotation, with investors seeking safety in fixed-income assets amid turbulence in the technology sector.

The move supports a strategic approach of extending bond duration to the five to seven-year range while accumulating high-quality investment-grade debt, particularly from developed and emerging-market sovereign and corporate issuers. These instruments offer attractive real yields in an environment where central banks may begin to ease later this year, though timing remains uncertain given persistent inflation dynamics in some economies.

Currency markets reflected subtle shifts in global risk appetite, with the United States Dollar Index declining 0.20 per cent to 97.437 as the greenback weakened against nearly all G10 counterparts. The euro strengthened to 1.1819 against the dollar, gaining 0.2 per cent, while the Japanese yen continued its struggle with USD/JPY, rising 0.1 per cent to 155.75.

This yen weakness stemmed from expectations of a strong election victory for Prime Minister Takaichi, which raised concerns about Japan’s fiscal sustainability and long-term debt trajectory. The broader dollar downtrend appears intact, with further Federal Reserve easing expected to dominate currency movements through the remainder of the year, potentially supporting additional gains in EUR/USD while pressuring USD/JPY lower on a broad dollar basis.

Commodity markets displayed sharp reactions to geopolitical developments, with Brent crude oil rising 1.6 per cent to settle at US$67/bbl after reports emerged that the United States Navy shot down an Iranian drone approaching an American aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea.

This incident reignited tensions between Washington and Tehran, raising immediate fears of supply disruptions. Precious metals surged dramatically, with gold advancing 6.1 per cent to US$4,946/oz and silver climbing 7.4 per cent to US$85/oz. These gains reflected classic safe-haven demand as investors sought protection amid rising geopolitical risks and equity market volatility, though the underlying outlook for oil remains cautiously negative given structural supply dynamics.

Asian markets diverged positively from their Western counterparts, with regional indices gaining ground, lifted by the strength of precious metals and optimism surrounding a newly announced United States-India trade agreement. South Korea’s Kospi Index led regional advances with a remarkable 6.8 per cent jump, fuelled by a powerful rally in chipmaker semiconductor and memory chip-related stocks.

China’s Shanghai Composite added 1.3 per cent, while Taiwan’s TWSE closed 1.8 per cent higher, demonstrating resilience in technology manufacturing hubs despite weakness in United States tech shares. This divergence suggests regional markets may be pricing in different growth trajectories or benefiting from sector-specific catalysts that offset broader global risk aversion.

The cryptocurrency market declined 2.05 per cent to US$2.59T over 24 hours, primarily driven by a Bitcoin-led liquidation cascade that revealed the asset class’s tight correlation with traditional equities. Bitcoin’s drop below the psychologically critical US$74,000 level triggered a wave of forced closures on overleveraged long positions, with liquidations surging 149 per cent to US$263.49 million within a single day.

Ethereum dramatically underperformed, falling 24 per cent over seven days, which weighed heavily on the broader Layer 1 ecosystem, while the Fear and Greed Index plunged to 14, indicating extreme fear across digital asset markets. The 92 per cent correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 underscores how macro liquidity conditions now dominate cryptocurrency price action more than idiosyncratic blockchain developments.

The near-term market trajectory hinges critically on whether Bitcoin can stabilise above US$74,000. A successful defence of this support level could catalyse a relief bounce toward US$77,200 to US$78,400, particularly if the United States spot Bitcoin ETF flow data shows renewed institutional accumulation.

Conversely, a decisive break below US$74,000 may accelerate selling pressure toward US$72,850, intensifying the current downtrend. The market exists in a fragile sentiment-driven state where technical factors like leveraged position unwinds interact with macro correlations, leaving little room for sector-specific catalysts to drive independent price action.

This confluence of factors paints a picture of markets navigating a delicate transition period. Technology volatility rooted in competition over artificial intelligence intersects with divergent global monetary policies and persistent geopolitical risks.

While US equities face headwinds from concentrated sector exposure, Asian markets show resilience, driven by semiconductor strength and optimism about trade deals. The cryptocurrency market’s sharp liquidation cascade ultimately reflects its current status as a risk asset tightly coupled to broader liquidity conditions rather than a diversifying alternative.

Investors would be wise to maintain balanced portfolios with quality fixed income allocations, defensive equity segments, and selective exposure to economically sensitive sectors, while carefully monitoring key technical levels in both traditional and digital asset markets. The path forward demands vigilance regarding central bank communications, earnings results, and geopolitical developments that could rapidly reshape risk sentiment across all asset classes.

 

Source: https://e27.co/gold-jumps-6-1-per-cent-to-us4946-as-geopolitical-tensions-override-dollar-weakness-what-about-bitcoin-20260204/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Asian markets flash red while US stocks climb, Bitcoin rebound: The divergence explained

Asian markets flash red while US stocks climb, Bitcoin rebound: The divergence explained

Markets found their footing today as a surprising burst of strength in American manufacturing activity recalibrated investor expectations across asset classes. The US ISM manufacturing survey for January delivered an unexpected leap from 47.9 in December to 52.6, well above the 48.5 estimate and the highest level since August 2022.

This single data point acted as an anchor for risk sentiment, lifting US equities: the Dow Jones climbed 1.05 per cent, the S&P 500 added 0.54 per cent, and the Nasdaq gained 0.56 per cent. Chipmakers and AI-related companies led the advance, while smaller-cap stocks surged sharply, reflecting a broadening of market participation beyond the narrow leadership that has characterized recent sessions. The VIX Index retreated to 16.34, signaling diminished anxiety among options traders even as the underlying catalyst suggested an economy with more momentum than previously assumed.

This resilience in risk assets despite stronger economic data presents a nuanced picture of market psychology. Typically robust manufacturing numbers would pressure equity valuations by reinforcing expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates, yet Treasury yields absorbed the news with measured moves. The two-year yield rose 4.9 basis points to 3.572 per cent while the ten-year climbed 4.2 basis points to 4.277 per cent. The modest rate repricing suggests investors are separating near-term data strength from a firmly entrenched expectation of Federal Reserve easing later this year. Markets appear to be pricing a pause in early 2026, coinciding with Jerome Powell’s scheduled departure as Fed Chair in May, followed by two anticipated rate reductions in the second and third quarters. This forward-looking stance allows equities to rally on current strength while bonds gradually reposition in anticipation of eventual monetary accommodation.

The US dollar capitalised on this dynamic, strengthening against all G10 currencies with the Dollar Index climbing 0.66 per cent to 97.632. The greenback’s advance drew additional support from a pronounced sell-off in precious metals as investors rotated out of traditional safe havens. Gold tumbled 4.8 per cent to 4661 dollars per ounce while silver plunged 7 per cent to 79 dollars per ounce. This flight from metals into dollars created a self-reinforcing cycle of dollar strength visible in major pairs. The euro weakened against the dollar, closing at 1.1791, down 0.5 per cent, while the Japanese yen extended its decline, with USD/JPY rising 0.55 per cent to 155.63. Concerns about fiscal sustainability following projections of a strong election win for Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi added pressure on the yen, creating a divergence between US and Japanese monetary trajectories.

Commodities faced headwinds beyond the dollar’s strength. Brent crude fell 4.4 per cent to settle at 66 dollars per barrel as easing tensions between the US and Iran removed a geopolitical premium from oil prices. This move aligned with a cautiously negative outlook for crude given its sensitivity to diplomatic developments.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market staged a technical rebound, rising 2.65 per cent to a total valuation of 2.64 trillion dollars. This recovery followed a violent weekend deleveraging event that flushed over two and a half billion dollars in liquidations, primarily from overextended long positions. The bounce reflected an oversold condition rather than a fundamental shift with Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 holding at 85 per cent, underscoring the macro-driven nature of the move. Select altcoins, including Hyperliquid, surged on project-specific catalysts, but the broader market remains fragile, hinging on Bitcoin’s ability to defend the 73,000 to 78,000 dollar support zone.

Asian markets told a contrasting story opening the week deep in negative territory as regional investors trimmed risk exposure amid the precious metals collapse and crypto volatility. South Korea’s Kospi Index tumbled 5.3 per cent, triggering an intraday trading halt amid anxiety over potential US tariff actions. China’s Shanghai Composite fell 2.5 per cent while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng retreated 2.2 per cent, reflecting regional sensitivity to shifts in global risk appetite. These losses highlighted the uneven nature of the global recovery, with emerging Asian markets reacting more sharply to risk-off signals than their US counterparts. Yet the divergence proved temporary as Asian indices traded higher by Tuesday morning, with US futures pointing upward, suggesting the initial sell-off represented an overreaction to weekend events rather than a structural breakdown.

President Trump’s announcement of a US-India trade deal added a geopolitical dimension to the session. The agreement immediately lowers reciprocal tariffs with the US, reducing the US rate on Indian goods from 25 per cent to 18 per cent, while India eliminates its tariffs and non-tariff barriers on American products. This development signals a pragmatic recalibration of trade policy that could ease supply chain friction and support manufacturing activity going forward. The deal arrives at a time when markets are seeking catalysts beyond monetary policy to sustain economic momentum, making its timing particularly relevant for cyclical sectors like industrials and financials.

My perspective on this market configuration centres on sustainability. The rally in US equities driven by manufacturing strength and trade optimism faces a fundamental test in the months ahead. Strong data today supports risk assets, but persistent strength could delay the Fed easing cycle that markets have priced in for mid-year. The bond market’s muted reaction to the ISM surprise suggests investors believe this manufacturing rebound is isolated rather than the start of a broad-based acceleration. I view the current environment as a transitional phase in which markets balance near-term resilience against medium-term vulnerability, particularly in labour markets, where weakness is expected to manifest ahead of anticipated rate cuts.

The crypto rebound exemplifies this fragility. A 2.65 per cent gain after massive liquidations represents technical exhaustion, not renewed conviction. The market’s tight correlation with the S&P 500 confirms it is a risk asset rather than a diversifier. True stabilisation requires Bitcoin to hold above 78000 dollars and spot ETF outflows to moderate, neither of which has occurred decisively. Similarly, the dollar’s strength may prove temporary if Fed easing materialises as expected, though near-term momentum favours continued greenback resilience.

Looking forward, the path of least resistance for markets depends on whether the manufacturing rebound broadens into other sectors or proves ephemeral. Investors should monitor labour market indicators closely, as any deterioration would validate the Fed’s easing narrative, supporting both bonds and equities. In the interim, a barbell approach makes sense, overweighting quality fixed income with five to seven-year duration while maintaining exposure to select cyclicals and defensives within equities. The recovery remains uneven and fragile, but the combination of strong data trade progress and technical rebounds has created a window of stability that markets are using to reposition for the next phase of the cycle. How long this window remains open depends on whether economic strength proves durable or gives way to the softening that monetary policy anticipates.

 

Source: https://e27.co/asian-markets-flash-red-while-us-stocks-climb-bitcoin-rebound-the-divergence-explained-20260203/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Gold hits US$5K and crypto bleeds: What comes next?

Gold hits US$5K and crypto bleeds: What comes next?

As global markets opened for trading on Monday, January 26, investors found themselves navigating a landscape shaped by escalating geopolitical friction, shifting monetary expectations, and a historic surge in gold prices that eclipsed the psychological US$5,000 per ounce threshold. The confluence of these forces has created a volatile yet revealing moment in financial history. This moment reflects not only immediate market reactions but also deeper structural anxieties about the stability of traditional financial systems, the role of safe-haven assets, and the fragile confidence underpinning both equities and digital assets.

Gold’s ascent to over US$5,000 an ounce marks more than just a new record. It signals a profound loss of faith in fiat stability and institutional safeguards. This rally did not emerge in isolation. It unfolded against a backdrop of weakening US dollar sentiment, driven by fears of Japanese intervention in currency markets and renewed speculation about potential US tariffs targeting Greenland. A move that, while seemingly niche, underscores the broader trend of economic nationalism and strategic resource competition. In such an environment, capital naturally seeks refuge.

Gold, with its millennia-long reputation as a store of value, becomes the default destination when trust in policy predictability erodes. The strength of gold-related equities in Hong Kong, which helped propel the Hang Seng Index to its fourth consecutive gain, further illustrates how this flight to safety is translating into real portfolio allocations across Asia.

Meanwhile, US stock futures pointed lower at the open, reflecting investor caution ahead of a critical earnings week. The tech sector, long the engine of market returns, now stands at a crossroads. Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple are all scheduled to report results, and their performance will likely dictate whether the Nasdaq can sustain its narrow 0.28 per cent gain from Friday, January 23, when it closed at 23,501.24. That modest advance stood in stark contrast to the broader market malaise. The S&P 500 barely held onto a 0.03 per cent rise to finish at 6,915.61, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 285.30 points, or 0.58 per cent, to 49,098.71, dragged down by a nearly 4 per cent drop in Goldman Sachs. These divergences suggest growing selectivity among investors, who are increasingly unwilling to reward broad market exposure without clear earnings justification, especially in a climate where macro risks loom large.

In Asia, policymakers are responding with strategic moves aimed at reinforcing regional financial autonomy. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s decision to double the size of its RMB Business Facility to RMB200 billion (US$28 billion) is a deliberate step toward deepening offshore renminbi liquidity and reducing reliance on the US dollar in trade and settlement. This aligns with China’s long-term goal of internationalising its currency, particularly as geopolitical tensions incentivise alternative financial architectures. Meanwhile, Singapore’s central bank is expected to hold its monetary policy steady, reflecting a more cautious stance in a region where inflation dynamics remain manageable but external shocks could quickly alter the calculus.

The cryptocurrency market, however, tells a different story, one of fragility and systemic vulnerability. Over the past 24 hours, the total crypto market cap fell by 1.9 per cent, extending a seven-day decline of 6.94 per cent. Despite retaining a modest 0.63 per cent gain for the month, the recent slide reveals how quickly sentiment can turn when trust is breached.

Two major security incidents acted as catalysts. In South Korea, prosecutors confirmed a phishing attack led to staggering losses of seized Bitcoin, while in the US, 40 million dollars worth of crypto was stolen from government-controlled addresses. These were not random hacks. They targeted institutions entrusted with custody of digital assets, raising urgent questions about the adequacy of current safeguards. When even state-held crypto proves vulnerable, retail and institutional participants alike reassess their exposure.

This erosion of confidence triggered a cascade of forced selling. In just 24 hours, 145 million dollars in Bitcoin long positions were liquidated, a staggering 4,829 per cent increase from baseline levels, with longs accounting for 98 per cent of all liquidations. Simultaneously, open interest in Bitcoin derivatives rose by 14 per cent, indicating that traders had piled into leveraged bets just before the downturn. The result was a classic deleveraging spiral.

As prices dipped below key technical supports, margin calls triggered automated sell-offs, which pushed prices lower, triggering more liquidations. Funding rates have turned slightly negative at minus 0.001 per cent, suggesting that short-term sentiment has shifted bearish, though not yet into panic territory. Still, the speed and scale of the unwind reveal how thin the line remains between orderly correction and disorderly collapse in highly leveraged crypto markets.

From my view, these developments underscore a pivotal tension in today’s financial ecosystem. There is a growing divergence between traditional safe-haven behaviour and the still-unproven resilience of digital alternatives. Gold’s record high reflects centuries of accumulated trust, while crypto’s sharp pullback exposes its continued dependence on speculative leverage and institutional credibility, both of which remain works in progress. The thefts from government-held wallets are particularly damning because they strike at the very premise that regulated custody can mitigate risk. If even federal agencies cannot secure digital assets, what hope do exchanges or self-custody solutions offer to the average investor?

Moreover, the timing could not be more consequential. With the US Senate set to discuss a new crypto bill this week, regulators now face immense pressure to respond, not just with rhetoric, but with concrete frameworks that address custody standards, transparency, and systemic risk. A reactive crackdown could deepen the selloff, while a measured, innovation-friendly approach might restore some confidence. But given the current mood, shaped by both geopolitical uncertainty and market fragility, any misstep could accelerate capital flight from digital assets toward time-tested stores of value.

Today may be remembered not just for gold’s historic milestone, but as a stress test for the entire architecture of modern finance. Traditional markets are grappling with slowing momentum and earnings uncertainty. Asian economies are quietly building parallel financial rails. The crypto sector is confronting its Achilles’ heel, the gap between technological promise and operational reality. For investors, the path forward demands discernment. Blind faith in either legacy systems or decentralised ideals is no longer tenable. Instead, survival and profit will belong to those who can navigate this hybrid landscape with eyes wide open, recognising that true resilience lies not in ideology, but in adaptability.

 

Source: https://e27.co/gold-hits-us5k-and-crypto-bleeds-what-comes-next-20260126/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j