熊市依旧在前进,比特币(BTC)能否逆转下行趋势?

熊市依旧在前进,比特币(BTC)能否逆转下行趋势?

自 2021 年 11 月创下历史新高以来,世界上最大的加密货币比特币( BTC ) 已贬值 70% 以上,与广泛的加密货币市场一致。严酷的加密货币冬天是由通胀飙升、经济衰退担忧中的避险情绪以及 TerraUSD (UST) 稳定币的崩盘引发的。

加密货币先驱会再次出现吗?我们来看看推动 2023 年及以后的 BTC/USD 预测的关键因素。

什么是比特币?

BTC/USD 是比特币兑美元的汇率。BTC to USD衡量购买一个比特币需要多少美元。

比特币创建于 2009 年,是第一个去中心化的数字货币,充当点对点支付系统。它不使用中央机构或银行来管理交易,而是“由网络共同组织”。

加密货币是由化名中本聪的匿名个人或一群人发明的。此后,它已成为最受欢迎的数字资产之一。第一个 BTC 代币,即所谓的创世区块,于 2009 年 1 月开采。

比特币的区块链使用工作量证明 ( PoW ) 共识机制,由矿工验证 BTC 交易以换取 BTC 奖励来保护。这个过程被称为加密挖掘。

这些奖励在每挖出 210,000 个区块或大约每四年一次减半事件后减半,从而减少流通中的整体 BTC 代币数量,并通过减少供应来提高加密货币的价格。

最近的减半事件发生在 2021 年 5 月 11 日,当时比特币的区块奖励减少到 6.25BTC。下一个减半事件估计发生在 2024 年。

除了作为“电子现金的点对点版本”之外,比特币现在还被用作价值存储。比特币的最大供应量为 2100 万个代币。

BTC价格历史

自 2009 年推出以来,BTC 花了大约 8 年时间才飙升至 1,000 美元以上。2017 年,该加密货币表现良好,从 2017 年 1 月初的 1,044.4 美元到 2017 年 12 月 20 日的 17,760.3 美元,在一年内上涨了 1,600% – 创历史新高。

然而,2018 年初的大幅抛售干扰了比特币的价格,到 2018 年 2 月 8 日,比特币的价格跌至 7,637.86 美元。到 2018 年 12 月 10 日,比特币继续下跌至 3,000 美元。

加密货币在 2019 年 7 月初再次达到顶峰,在短时间内超过 12,000 美元,随后损失超过 58% 的价值,到 2020 年 3 月 13 日跌至 5,000 美元。

2021 年,加密货币再次迎来了历史上最大的牛市。到 2021 年 1 月 8 日,该代币的价值约为 39,000 美元。2021 年 4 月 16 日,比特币达到了 63,258.51 美元的第一个峰值——飙升了约 62%。BTC 的价格继续上涨,在 2021 年 11 月 9 日达到 67,549.74 美元的历史新高。

2022 年,该代币经历了迄今为止最严酷的加密冬天之一,自 2021 年 11 月的高点以来下跌了近 72%,目前(10 月 12 日)徘徊在 19,000 美元。是什么塑造了 BTC/USD 的预测?

加密货币市场在 2022 年受到多种因素的影响,例如乌克兰战争、TerraUSD (UST) 稳定币崩盘和通胀上升。Castle Funds 总裁兼首席投资官 Peter Eberle 告诉 Capital.com:

“2022 年上半年对股票、债券和加密市场来说是可怕的。俄罗斯入侵乌克兰、美国政策制定者缓慢意识到通胀是真实的、然后积极转向加息、中国新冠政策导致的供应链问题等宏观因素的汇合,都导致整个市场出现大幅抛售。 ”

Eberle 补充说,Terra 的“崩盘”导致其姊妹加密货币 LUNA 随后下跌,“造成跨多个平台的级联清算”,不仅影响了 BTC/USD 价格,还影响了包括三箭资本和摄氏度在内的多家对冲基金网络。

6 月 9 日,比特币一度突破 31,000 美元,但很快就变成了抛售,导致比特币损失了 90% 以上的小幅收益,10 天后跌至 19,000 美元。从那时起,BTC 一直在波动,交易价格在 23,000 美元至 19,000 美元之间。

“在第二季度末,业内许多人都在等待众所周知的‘下一只鞋要掉’,但幸运的是事情平静了下来,”Eberle 指出。

蒙古生产力组织首席数字顾问、《NFT:从零到英雄》的作者 Anndy Lian 表示,比特币的价格取决于美联储 ( Fed ) 会议的结果和货币政策收紧的决定,以及最新的通胀数据如生产者物价指数(PPI)和消费者物价指数(CPI)。

“不过,我并不悲观。矿业公司经历了艰难时期。尽管哈希率很高,但比特币的价格并没有显着上涨。这表明矿工们并没有通过堆积网络来获得比特币的巨大收益,他们相信,由于网络已被证明具有持久力,挖矿业务将会做得很好。”

Capital.com 的季节性研究显示,从历史上看,10 月一直是加密货币的好月份,自 2011 年以来,10 月比特币的价格变化平均上涨了 14.6% 。然而,事实证明今年有所不同。Castle Fund 的 Eberle 指出:

“2022 年第三季度,加密市场出现整合,而股票和债券继续下滑。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 6.2%,比特币下跌 2%,但波动性显着降低,更广泛的加密货币市值增长 8.5%。”

Eberle 补充说,比特币兑美元的预测目前主要关注宏观事件,特别是美联储的利益决定、俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突的未来结果以及定于 11 月 8 日举行的美国中期选举。此外,Eberle 还添加了一些关于比特币过去减半事件的历史展望:

“2015 年 BTC 在减半前 547 天触底,而 2018 年则在 517 天前触底。下一个减半估计发生在 2024 年 4 月或 5 月,因此如果历史重演,我们应该接近下一个牛市的开始。”

BTC预测 2022 年及以后

尽管最新的价格走势下跌,但基于算法的预测服务Wallet Investor在撰写本文时(10 月 12 日)给出了看涨的 BTC/USD 预测。该网站指出,BTC 是“一项非常好的长期投资”。

根据对过去价格表现的分析,WalletInvestor 预测 BTC/USD 可能在 2023 年交易价格为 25,373.90 美元,并在 2027 年飙升至 47,496.74 美元。

DigitalCoinPrice支持积极的 BTC / USD 预测,但在接下来的几年中增长速度更快,预计到 2022 年底该加密货币将达到 24,206.47 美元,到 2023 年底达到 43,340.43 美元。

其对 2025 年的 BTC/USD 预测显示,该加密货币平均达到 77,238.07 美元,2027 年达到 94,929.40 美元。该平台对 2030 年的长期 BTC/USD 预测预计该加密货币平均将飙升至 266,189.92 美元。

Lian 确实分享了对 BTC 兑美元预测的看涨情绪:

“比特币价格徘徊在 19,400 美元左右,上周上涨 1.9%。缩小,它在过去 30 天里上涨了 1%。除非我们看到标准普尔 500 指数跌至 3200 点,否则比特币可能跌破 13,000 美元区域,否则我认为未来几周它将继续横盘整理。”

然而,Lian 指出,要强调的一个积极方面是比特币的哈希率继续飙升。

请注意,BTC/USD 预测可能是错误的。不应使用分析师和基于算法的预测来替代您自己的研究。

始终在交易前对股票进行自己的尽职调查,查看最新消息、广泛的分析师评论、技术和基本面分析。请注意,过去的表现并不能保证未来的回报。永远不要交易你不能承受损失的钱。

在加密行业你想抓住下一波牛市机会你得有一个优质圈子,大家就能抱团取暖,保持洞察力。如果只是你一个人,四顾茫然,发现一个人都没有,想在这个行业里面坚持下来其实是很难的。

 

Source: https://www.sohu.com/a/592238863_121420475

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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What Are The Best Metaverse Tokens To Invest In?

What Are The Best Metaverse Tokens To Invest In?

With Facebook changing its name to Meta and top investor Cathie Wood CEO of Ask Invest predicting that the future market value of metaverse would be in trillions of dollars, is it worth ‘getting in on the ground floor’ and investing in metaverse tokens? It’s worth having an investor approach, of course, not just being swept along by these headline announcements, but in such an innovative technology how do you decide what’s worth investing in? We’ve therefore compiled a watchlist of metaverse tokens that we believe will play a significant role in realizing the metaverse’s potential to become a trillion-dollar industry.

But just as importantly we’ve set our stall out by asking investors to consider metaverse tokens in terms of the wider thesis about what adds value from a web3 perspective. Apart from having a clear purpose or problem they are trying to solve, not just a white paper and a cute explainer video, they need to have a strong community foundation. Of course, every crypto startup talks the talk when it comes to community. But having a Discord server busy with airdrops and users waiting for the next price pump isn’t going to make it in the longer term. What is worth looking for when assessing which metaverse project to invest in is the degree to which they are actually community-owned, and how well they share the revenue and the control with their users.

 

Zilliqa (ZIL)

Flying somewhat under the radar has been Layer 1 blockchain Zilliqa, notable as the first Layer 1 to use sharding to solve the blockchain scaling problem that Ethereum has faced. What’s interesting is that with a recent change in leadership, and a new CEO with Ben Livshits who comes from the Brave browser, Zilliqa has already announced that is launching its own metaverse, ‘Metapolis’.

The obvious challenge for Metapolis will be its competitors Decentraland and Sandbox that currently have captured the majority of the blockchain metaverse users. Despite the current depressed value of the ZIL in 2022, the plans for a landmark event at the start of April, built around Zilliqa’s “position as the first layer-1 to build multiple commercial avenues of Web3” look exciting. The Q2 landmark event, which is built around Zilliqa’s “position as the first layer-1 to build multiple commercial avenues of Web3” is also a great opportunity for the Zilliqa team to organize PR and messaging – getting the consistency in messaging and confidence in its delivery should be a significant driver in the value of the ZIL token. The price of the token has been on a downward decline from a price on CMC of $0.2376 in mid-April 2021 to $0.0456 on 22 March 2022. But by the same token, this could be an ideal time to buy the dip in light of the Metapolis launch, the succession of new hires being announced, and the publicity surrounding the event itself.

It’s instructive that Ethereum’s co-founder Joseph Lubin recently criticized Zilliqa rival Solana for over-generous rewards to users validating transactions on the network. Solana Labs responded that “simply looking at protocol revenue doesn’t tell the full story of the long-term performance” of a blockchain’s economic model. That also begs the question as to whether in the longer term Zilliqa sufficiently incentivizes its mining community. After all the key to web3 isn’t merely community-engaged, but community ‘ownership’ in terms of the token structure and for governance.

 

Axie Infinity (AXS)

The growth of play-to-earn gaming, led by Axie Infinity, where engagement with a younger generation of gamers in countries like the Philippines shows how this can make a real financial difference to people’s lives. This is also why the role of DeFi in the metaverse, can be so important in providing people with a low-cost way to earn, save and send money from person to person. Back in October last year it hit a $3 billion equity valuation. Token Terminal estimates AXS is driving about $28.9 million in weekly revenue. Annualized, this equates to $1.5 billion in revenue, which is comparable to blockbuster games in the traditional gaming sector. Last month, Axie reduced production of its main in-game rewards to avoid what its blog post describes as “total and permanent economic collapse.” These changes should make a positive difference. However, as the chart from CoinMarketCap shows, the value appears to correlate heavily to the price of Bitcoin.

Tracking the price of AXS vs BTC (AXS: see green trend line; BTC orange trend line)

 

Decentraland (MANA)

Decentraland is an Ethereum-based blockchain-powered virtual-reality pioneer. Decentraland has the largest market capitalization in the metaverse space, and as one of the early adopters, the company is well-positioned to maintain its dominance in this space. Decentraland is divided into LAND parcels that are NFTs, and LAND ownership gives users complete control over what they build. In total there are 90,601 land parcels, and the LAND NFTs can be purchased using Decentraland’s native token MANA.

Users in Decentraland can use MANA tokens to buy and develop land, as well as some of the game’s tools to create spaces and works of art. Users are free to create whatever they want. Decentraland also holds various entertainment activities regularly, with users able to attend parties, play games, and visit digital art exhibitions. Decentraland recently hosted the world’s first multi-day music festival, with many well-known artists performing. Adding to the utility, as reported by Motley Fool, this month it will host Metaverse Fashion Week from March 24–27, featuring global brands, including Tommy Hilfiger, and Dolce & Gabbana.

 

The Sandbox (SAND)

Sandbox is similar to Decentraland in that users can use SAND tokens to purchase land, build houses, and share games on the purchased land. Sandbox has announced several collaborations in recent months, including top NFT marketplace OpenSea, Snoop Dogg, and The Walking Dead. At the same time, it recently completed a US$93 million round of financing led by Softbank, a leading investor in the blockchain space. There are three billion SAND tokens, and a third of its total supply is circulating at $3.06. Compared to MANA, SAND has been hit harder by the market downturn, with a drop in the last month alone from $4.20 in early Feb to $2.90 on March 7, a 30% decrease. However, recent price aside the fundamentals suggests SAND is a good bet for the future, based on a successful implementation of their project roadmap to date.

Coming back to the guiding thesis about the importance of community ownership for the longer-term viability of metaverse tokens one of the key benefits of Sandbox is that it’s decentralized both in name and in terms of its community governance. Indeed, the play-to-earn approach type revenue is shared throughout the gaming ecosystem via tokens, while Sandbox users can earn a passive income by charging other users to access their land. With both rewards and fees paid in SAND underline how this core web3 approach to community ownership supports the value of the SAND token to investors.

 

Somnium Space (CUBE)

Somnium Space is another metaverse ecosystem BigONE believes is worth investigating. Somnium space’s goal is to create an immersive metaverse. Users can buy lands, customize their avatars, and invest in real estate in Somnium, which was founded in 2017. Gemini supports the Somnium space, and the FTX exchange recently built a metaverse headquarters on the Somnium space.

In the last month, its native token $CUBE’s price movement has been very similar to SAND’s. The market capitalization of CUBE is $59 million, with 12.5 million circulating supply out of a total supply of 100 million. Somnium Space is ideal for users to build their real estate using their builder tools and create custom avatars using the Unity SDK. In addition, in 2019 they partnered with Sony to allow users to create full embodiment avatars of themselves in minutes alongside any 3D models for Somnium Store. Sony’s VR store in Somnium Space was among the world’s first.

 

Investing in the future of the metaverse

By providing more incentives and giving back to users, the metaverse will constantly flip the script and change how things will be done. BigONE anticipates a more transparent, open, and fully decentralized experience from the vibrant creative landscapes and avatars. The landscape itself will be visually stunning, a virtual place where the imagination is no longer constrained. Clearly, the development of a fully functional metaverse has the potential to fundamentally alter how people interact with the digital world. A collective virtual experience would reimagine the creative industry and open new doors for creators, gamers, and artists. BigONE Chairman Anndy Lian said: “The metaverse is here to stay, it’s clear the success already of Sandbox and Decentraland shows it has tremendous potential to bring people together. That potential in terms of GameFi we can see with Axie Infinity’s play-to-earn gaming which is making a real difference to people’s lives. However, there remain obstacles to its growth. Countries like China and South Korea have had laws about converting in-game tokens into fiat currency for nearly 15 years, for instance.

“However, I believe like any disruptive paradigm-shifting technology, which is attracting the attention of global players such as Facebook and governments keen to keep control of the internet, there are risks involved. But I’m optimistic that the decentralized community-owned development of an interoperable metaverse will deliver lasting value to both users and investors,” Lian added.

 

Any references to projects in this article are purely for information and should not be deemed financial advice, or promotional.

 

 

Original Source: https://metaverseinsider.tech/2022/04/25/what-are-the-best-metaverse-tokens-to-invest-in/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Nikkei Asia: South Korea’s incoming president vows big cryptocurrency push

Nikkei Asia: South Korea’s incoming president vows big cryptocurrency push

SEOUL/SINGAPORE — South Korean President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol will take office in May with no business experience but strong ideas on one of the most contentious subjects in finance, cryptocurrencies.

Yoon, a former top prosecutor who emerged victorious last week in the closest vote for the top office in the country’s history, has promised to allow initial coin offerings, or ICOs, as part of his broader cryptocurrency pledges.

A member of the conservative People Power Party, he has also vowed not to impose taxes on cryptocurrency trading gains of up to 50 million won ($40,000), treating them the same as stock winnings.

Yoon’s proposals were welcomed by cryptocurrency advocates who expect obstacles to be removed and the door opened to increased opportunities in blockchain technology-based assets.

“We definitely welcome his stance as he is confident about boosting the industry,” said Yoon Seong-han, secretary-general at Korea Blockchain Association, a lobby group for cryptocurrency exchanges and other market participants. “As ICOs are banned now, we have no choice but to issue coins in Singapore and other countries. Ventures and startups will be able to raise money easily from investors [if the ban is lifted].”

Yoon the lobbyist is not related to the president-elect.

Singapore-based Anndy Lian, chairman of Netherlands-registered crypto trading platform BigONE Exchange, also welcomed Yoon’s stance. “He understands the importance of crypto,” Lian told Nikkei Asia. “He understands the future, and it is unstoppable.”

Stocks related to coins have rallied on Yoon’s victory over Lee Jae-myung of the center-left Democratic Party. Lee took a cautious stance toward cryptocurrencies. Lee agreed with Yoon on allowing coin issuances but was negative on treating cryptocurrencies the same as stocks.

Cryptocurrencies, which can and do go on huge price swings, have prompted concerns over how they can be effectively regulated.

Shares of Vidente, a telecom facility maker that owns a 34.2% stake in South Korea’s biggest cryptocurrency exchange Bithumb Holdings, jumped 11.3% over two days last week after Yoon was elected, before falling 5.37% on Monday and 2.39% on Tuesday.

According to South Korea’s financial regulator, the country’s cryptocurrency market reached 55.2 trillion won as of December, with average daily trading of 11.3 trillion won. More than 15.2 million people in the country have accounts with 24 cryptocurrency brokers. Of those registered, 5.6 million actually trade.

Traders in their 30s appear to be most enthusiastic, accounting for 31% of all buyers; followed by those in their 40s, at 27%; and those in their 20s, at 23%; according to a Financial Services Commission report released last month. By gender, two-thirds of users are men. More than half of users had cryptocurrencies valued at 1 million won or less, while 15% held 10 million won worth or more.

Stocks have traditionally been South Koreans’ favored investment vehicle. The country’s benchmark Kospi index in 2021 experienced a record year for initial public offerings, which totaled 17.2 trillion won. The index rose 3.63% last year and had a market capitalization of 2.2 quadrillion won.

Yoon’s electoral victory of less than a percentage point was largely propelled by support from socially and economically disaffected younger men, analysts say. This disaffection has been increasing due to high inflation, low growth and more recently soaring home prices.

The victor’s embrace of cryptocurrencies also comes as U.S. President Joe Biden last week signed an executive order ensuring responsible development of cryptocurrencies and other digital assets.

“We must reinforce United States leadership in the global financial system and in technological and economic competitiveness, including through the responsible development of payment innovations and digital assets,” the White House said in a statement, describing one of the order’s objectives.

Yoon can implement part of his cryptocurrency policy through presidential orders, but his no-tax vow will need the National Assembly to revise a tax law. The legislature will also need to pass a bill to set up an agency to regulate digital assets.

This will require cooperation from incumbent President Moon Jae-in’s dominant Democratic Party, which has a majority of 300 seats in the legislature.

At least some of what Yoon proposes is likely to be achieved, according to Han Dae-hoon, an analyst at SK Securities.

“I expect Yoon’s policy to nurture cryptocurrencies is likely to be realized with the new government,” Han wrote in a note on Monday. “But we will not know until we see it.”

In Singapore, Yoon’s openness to crypto has been met with some skepticism. Although the city-state has positioned itself as an Asian hub for digital assets, its financial regulator has been selective in offering operating licenses to crypto players; only a handful of companies have been allowed to do business in the country.

Anson Zeall — emeritus-chair of the Association of Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Enterprises and startups Singapore, a lobby outfit for over 400 businesses — said it remains to be seen how many of Yoon’s promises will be fulfilled.

“Action speaks louder than words,” he told Nikkei Asia. “We need to see what they [South Korea] come up with.”

Lian of BigONE Exchange voiced a similar sentiment.

“Singapore’s menu still has its advantages,” he told Nikkei. “[South] Korea’s money control[s] needs to be relooked [at] in order for crypto to move up another level, so Singapore is still in an advantageous position.”

 

Original Source: https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Cryptocurrencies/South-Korea-s-incoming-president-vows-big-cryptocurrency-push

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j