SUSHI / BTC prediction: SushiSwap showing signs of life despite shrinking exchange market share

SUSHI / BTC prediction: SushiSwap showing signs of life despite shrinking exchange market share

SUSHI is well poised to see growth. These are the additional comments that I have.

Let’s track back to around two weeks ago. GoldenTree Asset Management has invested $5.3 million into SUSHI governance token. During that period of time, investors were all excited about the news. Social media mentions spiked to around 0.851%. They gained 14% in 24 hours back then.

5 days ago, we saw a plunge of around 20% when they announced their newly appointed CEO, Jared Grey. He was being accused of being involved in a couple of scam projects and once sexually assaulted a horse. The token price went down to around $1.0962 at that point. Jared has since written his statement and shared it on his personal Medium page to address all the allegations. The token has since traded higher to $1.51 this morning.

All these price movements are driven by news and this is no way sustainable. The need for SUSHI to continue to build, find new niches and new products are important for its growth. SushiSwap started with a “vampire attack” if you remember, it has drawn so much attention back then, personally I hope to see that kind of drive back to the platform.

Retail investors got to know this. In order for SUSHI to grow, SushiSwap got to continue growing in popularity. As much as I believe decentralised exchanges are the way forward, the competition is very high and it is ever changing. SUSHI or not, it all depends on how strong your team is. I look forward to their new developments.

SUSHI / BTC prediction: SushiSwap showing signs of life despite shrinking exchange market share

 

Since facing major losses in the crypto winter of 2022 cryptocurrencies have been struggling to resurface. Bitcoin (BTC) is down by 70% since its November 2021 highs while SushiSwap’s SUSHI fell by 94% since its all-time high of 14 March 2021, as of 21 October.

How do the two tokens trade against each other and what does the SUSHI to BTC forecast suggest amid the current bear market? Here we take  a look at the SUSHI/BTC pair and some of the factors that may shape its exchange rate.

What is SUSHI/BTC?

SUSHI/BTC is the exchange rate between SUSHI, the native cryptocurrency of the decentralised exchange (DEX) platform SushiSwap, and BTC, the native coin of the Bitcoin Network.

Joerg Hansen, Caiz Development GMbh’s CEO, told Capital.com that the SUSHI to BTC value is calculated in the same way that a fixed exchange rate is calculated and is based on the rates of up to 100 exchanges.

Bitcoin is the pioneer cryptocurrency launched in 2009 by a creator or group of creators using the anonymous nickname Satoshi Nakamoto. BTC is built, distributed, exchanged and stored on a collective network known as a blockchain, and the token is used for peer-to-peer payments.

The cryptocurrency is secured by a Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism, which is how new bitcoins are mined. Miners gain BTC as rewards for solving mathematical equations that confirm whether a BTC transaction is legitimate.

Approximately every four years or once every 210,000 mined BTC blocks, the blockchain goes through a halving event, which is when the rewards given to miners are cut in half, decreasing the amount of bitcoins in circulation.

SushiSwap is a decentralised finance (DeFi) platform that aims to solve what it describes to be “the inability of disparate forms of liquidity to connect with markets in a decentralized way”. It creates automated liquidity pools through which anyone can swap a crypto token based on the ERC-20 Ethereum protocol for another ERC-20 token.

The platform’s Japanese food-themed ecosystem was launched in 2020 by an anonymous creator who calls themself Chef Nomi. The software is running on the Ethereum blockchain, and is often compared to other similar platforms like Uniswap (UNI) and Balancer (BAL).

SushiSwap uses a number of products to achieve full liquidity and decentralisation, and allows users to exchange, earn, lend and borrow digital assets, stack yields and leverage funds. In addition, SushiSwap has smart contract capabilities, which means it also supports the creation of non-fungible tokens (NFTs).

SUSHI coins are rewarded to users for maintaining liquidity on the platform. They can also be used for staking and governance.

SUSHI has a maximum supply of 150 million coins. Meanwhile, BTC’s maximum supply is capped at 21 million.

SUSHI to BTC price history

The SUSHI to BTC exchange rate surged by more than 235% in the first four days following its launch, up from 0.0002201BTC on 19 August 2020 to 0.0007436BTC, its all-time high. The SUSHI value in USD surged by 250%.

The SUSHI/BTC price chart shows that SUSHI was quick to dip against BTC as the exchange rate’s value lost over 95% of its gains in the following months, down to 0.00003331BTC by mid-November 2020.

SUSHI to BTC price chart, 2020 – 2022

At the start of 2021, SUSHI/BTC jumped 317.5% from 0.0001001BTC on 8 January 2021 to 0.0004179BTC on 5 February 2021, in line with a hike in the SUSHI price in USD as the platform announced the launch of MISO, a suit of open-source smart contracts.

SUSHI to USD price chart, 2020 – 2022

The bull trend in the SUSHI to BTC price chart lasted for the following five months and by 19 May 2021 the exchange rate reached 0.0005008BTC, up by 19.8% as the SUSHI ecosystem became compatible with the Polygon blockchain.

Following the positive trend, SUSHI/BTC fell by 60.2% down to 0.0001994BTC by 26 June 2021 and continued to fluctuate for the following four months seeing minor losses and gains.

By 16 September 2021, SUSHI/BTC reached 0.0003152BTC but within a month fell by 40%. Around this time, the BTC value in USD was picking up the momentum, surging by around 55% to reach its all-time high of $64,158.12 on 13 November 2021, up from $41,551.27 at the end of September 2021.

The SUSHI to BTC exchange rate continued to further decline and reached 0.0001069BTC by the beginning of December 2021. By the end of the month, the rate surged by 103% to 0.0002174BTC as the platform launched a migration to the Optics V2 bridge, but the trend was short lived.

In line with recent negative market sentiment, SUSHI/BTC has lost over 65% of its value with the pairing’s current exchange rate trading at  0.00006957BTC as of 21 October.

Caiz Deveopment’s Hansen noted that in terms of technical analysis, the SUSHI/BTC price is struggling:

“Based on technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and important simple and exponential moving averages, SUSHI is currently in neutral territory and Bitcoin in a bearish one, which suggests that now is a bad time to exchange Sushi for Bitcoin.”

News driving SUSHI/BTC

At the start of October, Golden Tree Asset Management announced that it will stake $5.3m into SUSHI. Anndy Lian, chief digital advisor at the Mongolian Productivity Organisation and author of NFT: From Zero to Hero, told Capital.com that the announcement sparked enthusiasm in the online SUSHI community, but the hype was short-lived. Lian explained:

“Five days ago, we saw a plunge of around 20% when [SUSHI] announced their newly appointed CEO, Jared Grey. He was being accused of being involved in a couple of scam projects and once sexually assaulting a horse. The token price went down to around $1.0962 at that point,” Lian noted.

On 11 October, a Twitter user under the handle YannickCrypto alleged in a series of tweets that Grey was involved in a series of scam projects between 2012 and 2020. The user added that they met Grey in 2019. Other users chimed in, alleging that the CEO had also engaged in bestiality with a horse.

Grey addressed the scam allegations, saying they were “100% untrue”. But SUSHI did not resurface.

Caiz Deveopment’s Hansen told Capital.com that “sharply rising interest rates” have also been “poisonous” for the SUSHI to BTC exchange rate, as well as the declining trading volumes on cryptocurrency exchanges. He noted:

“Another important reason is the huge competition in the crypto exchanges. Since the bitcoin peak, the volume of the exchanges has fallen up to 60% this year. You can see a clear decline in crypto exchanges and coins like SUSHI because you don’t earn as much in fees at the moment.”

SUSHI/BTC forecast for 2022, 2023 and beyond

Based on the analysis of past performance, as of 21 October, the algorithm-based forecasting service Wallet Investor predicted that SUSHI/USD could fall to $0.0663 in 2023. The platform did not provide a price prediction for 2027.

In terms of its BTC price forecast, the site saw BTC/USD trade at $25,101.65 in 2023 and reach $46,783.81 by 2027.

While Wallet Investor did not provide a direct SUSHI to BTC forecast, data suggested that the exchange rate could be 0.0000025098BTC in 2023.

DigitalCoinPrice predicted that SHIB/USD could rise to $1.63 by the end of 2022. The site’s data, as of 21 October, showed that the coin was expected to trade at $2.18  in 2023 and $3.49  in 2025. Its long-term prediction saw the coin reaching $7.32 in 2030.

The site also gave an upbeat BTC/USD forecast, expecting the coin to grow to $24,108.19 by the end of 2022, $31,466.60 in 2023, $49,830.68 in 2025 and surpass $105,000 in 2030.

DigitalCoinPrice’s SUSHI to BTC forecast for 2022 expected the pair to reach 0.0000676119BTC and 0.0000692798BTC in 2023. The site’s SUSHI/BTC forecast for 2025 stood at 0.0000700372BTC. Its long-term SUSHI/BTC forecast for 2030 was 0.0000697143BTC.

Hansenalso  gave a bullish SUSHI to BTC price outlook:

“In my opinion, the SUSHI/BTC price will climb beyond what we have seen so far, mainly because of its popularity and resilience despite it being around since the beginning stages of DeFi.”

In order for SUSHI to regain past losses, the platform must continue to develop and “find new niches and new products”, Lian said. He added:

“SushiSwap started with a ‘vampire attack’ if you remember, it has drawn so much attention back then…As much as I believe decentralised exchanges are the way forward, the competition is very high and it is ever changing. SUSHI or not, it all depends on how strong your team is. ”

Remember that analysts’ and algorithm-based predictions can be wrong and shouldn’t be used as a substitute for your own research.

Always conduct your own due diligence on a cryptocurrency project before trading, looking at the latest news, a wide range of analyst commentary and technical analysis. Note that past performance does not guarantee future returns. And never trade money you cannot afford to lose.

 

Source: https://capital.com/amp/sushi-btc-prediction-sushiswap-bitcoin-exchange-market-share

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S01 E44 – Episode 44: Anndy Lian, author of “NFT: From Zero to Hero”

S01 E44 – Episode 44: Anndy Lian, author of “NFT: From Zero to Hero”

Anndy Lian, a best selling author, joins the Podcast to discuss his newly released book called NFT: From Zero to Hero, where he aims both at the general public that wish to learn about NFT basics but also those who wish to use this technology to develop and build with it.

His book has been out for 2 months and has already sold over 9000 copies and became for the second time a bestselling author. He is also an advisor to companies and governments.

NFT stands for non-fungible token. Unlike standardized and fungible tokens that can be split almost an infinite number of times (such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other interchangeable tokens), NFTs are unique in nature. For example, Peter’s one BTC and Jane’s one BTC are basically the same in function, property rights, and interests. Still, an NFT can contain more unique information, including videos, pictures, and music, allowing its creator to assign more value to it.

Therefore, NFTs are ideal for recording and storing ownership of digital products, including artworks, games, and collectibles.

He talked about his way of thinking, how he works his way in the crypto industry and talked about IOTA too.

Find out more at: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4eVVP7874kvRXjtit8Atyp?si=lF28RLCLRZiWe6C45jkcPw&nd=1

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如何识别 NFT「洗盘交易」?

如何识别 NFT「洗盘交易」?

今年,一半以上的 NFT 交易量是「左手倒右手」。

原文标题:《The scourge of NFT wash trading — and how not to get suckered in

撰文:ANNDY LIAN

编译:Katie 辜

对金融人士来说,「洗盘交易」(wash trading)并不是一个新词。加密货币也以相同的买入和卖出手法来回进行「洗盘」, NFT  市场亦是如此。「洗盘交易」使得 NFT 爱好者很难衡量市场对某一系列的真正兴趣,还夸大和扭曲了交易量,对交易平台的分析也造成误导。

那如何用链上数据来识别「洗盘交易」,检测可疑活动呢?

什么是「洗盘交易」?

洗盘交易是一种市场操纵形式,投资者同时买卖同一种金融产品,在市场中制造误导。

在 NFT 交易中,当同一用户作为 NFT 交易的买卖双方时,就会发生「洗盘交易」。与传统证券不同,NFT 市场不受政府监管,地址背后的真实身份难判别。因此,洗盘交易在 NFT 市场非常普遍。

为什么有人洗 NFT?

NFT 领域「洗盘」的背后有两个主要动机。

1)获取平台奖励

一些 NFT 市场,如 X2Y2,根据活跃用户的交易量给予他们回报(以协议代币的形式),以此来奖励他们。洗盘交易者利用这一点,通过产生大量虚假交易量来最大化他们的回报。反过来,这很容易欺骗想要根据流动性定量分析 NFT 藏品或市场的用户。

2)创造价值或流动性的假象

为了制造一种流动性的假象和特定 NFT 藏品的虚高价值,一些无良创造者转向洗盘交易来欺骗买家。当真正的买家被骗以抬高的价格从他们那里购买 NFT 时,他们就会从中获利。这种类型的洗盘交易者用新的钱包地址隐藏他们的活动,这些地址由中心化交易所钱包自筹资金。这种类型的洗盘交易产生的交易量相对较小,对市场的破坏性不如第 1 类洗盘交易。

「洗盘交易」是怎样进行的?

由于第一种「洗盘交易」对 NFT 交易数据的干扰性,我们用从链上数据来识别。要理解这种类型的洗盘交易,我们必须先理解 X2Y2 和 LooksRare  的代币奖励系统。X2Y2 和 LooksRare 每天根据地址的交易量(作为市场平台每日总交易量的一部分)向卖方和买方分发代币。代币奖励每天都是固定的,所以洗盘交易者可以进行洗盘交易,并在每日分配重置时重复获得奖励代币。

图 1 显示了 X2Y2 市场上的一个洗盘交易活动示例。

图 1——NFT 系列 Dreadfulz 的洗盘交易例子(来源: Footprint Analytics)

从上图中我们可以看到,同一个 NFT(ID 164)相同的两个钱包之间在一天内多次来回购买,每笔交易的销售价格超过 300 ETH 。2022 年 9 月 1 日,这两个地址交易了 19 次,产生了 7228 ETH 的交易量,支付了 36.14 ETH 的 X2Y2 平台费用。而 Dreadfulz 的版税费率并不是在 X2Y2 上设定的。因此,没有支付创作者费用。洗盘交易者将选择零版税费的系列,以最小化他们的交易成本。

如何识别「洗盘交易」?

我研究了一些分析平台的检测方式。根据我自己的了解和分析,以下是一份可疑数据和活动的清单:

  1. 某一特定的 NFT 在同一地址每天交易超过 X 次,而其他收藏品则保持不变;
  2. 同一地址正在以高频方式进行同一 NFT 交易;
  3. 在没有营销或促销支持的情况下,NFT 系列以高频的方式进行自销;
  4. A 市场的平均历史交易价格是 B 市场的 X 倍;
  5. NFT 的销售价格比可供销售的最低价格 NFT 高 X 倍;
  6. 同一个钱包为买卖 NFT 的所有可疑钱包提供资金;
  7. 持续异常高的交易量。

上述假设并不完善,我希望与研究人员合作开发一种更全面的「记分卡」,可以更有效地确定 NFT 趋势和行为。随着时间的推移,追踪多个钱包以识别不同层次的关系的能力也至关重要。

顶级 NFT 藏品是如何进行「洗盘交易」的?

在图 2 中,Footprint Analytics 将他们的识别规则应用到 X2Y2 和 LooksRare 上交易量最大的 NFT 系列。

图 2——选定 NFT 系列的洗盘交易统计(来源:Footprint Analytics)

根据他们的规则,他们已经检测到这些系列的 95% 或更多的交易量是洗盘交易。洗盘交易在这些收藏品的交易量中占了极高的比例,这对收藏品的历史交易量和销售活动造成了误导。

图 3——蓝筹 NFT 系列的洗盘交易统计(来源:Footprint Analytics)

图 4——LooksRare 和 X2Y2 的洗盘交易数据(来源:Footprint Analytics)

图 5——Opensea、LooksRare 和 X2Y2 未经过滤的交易数据(来源:Footprint Analytics)

图 4 显示,LooksRare 和 X2Y2 上 94.71% 和 81.04% 的交易量是洗盘交易,这似乎与市场统计数据一致,如图 5 所示。我们可以从未经过滤的数据中看到,Looksrare 的每笔交易平均价格几乎达到 8.5 万美元,这是 OpenSea  均价的 90 倍左右,贵得离谱。

总结

图 6——OpenSea、LooksRare 和 X2Y2 的月度 NFT 销量数据(来源:Footprint Analytics)

从图 6 中可以看出,自 2022 年 1 月以来,几乎每个月 NFT 市场的月度交易统计数据的洗盘交易量占总交易量的比例都在 50% 以上。尽管总交易量较 1 月份的高点大幅下降,但 NFT 市场的洗盘交易量百分比每月保持相似。这强调了洗盘交易对准确的 NFT 交易数据的破坏性,以及「过滤」洗盘交易对的 NFT 数据分析的重要性。

 

 

Source: https://foresightnews.pro/article/detail/16762

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