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Bitcoin falls 3.12% to $75,697.61: Did Washington just kill the rally?

Bitcoin falls 3.12% to $75,697.61: Did Washington just kill the rally?

The digital asset market stumbled through a bruising 24-hour stretch as two outside forces collided with a market already stretched by borrowed money. Bitcoin lost 3.12 per cent to trade at US$75,697.61. Ethereum fell 4.49 per cent to US$2,399.07. Both underperformed a flat broader market.

A procedural vote in the United States Senate on September 15 failed to advance the CLARITY Act, a bill that would have clarified how regulators treat digital tokens. Hours later, investors braced for a Federal Reserve policy meeting on September 16, with markets pricing a high probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike. That combination of legislative disappointment and fears of monetary tightening proved too heavy for prices to bear.

The CLARITY Act had offered something rare, a legislative path toward clear rules. Its failure did more than postpone a decision. It told the trading community that Washington remains divided over how to oversee digital assets. Without a clear framework, exchanges and token issuers continue to face conflicting signals from agencies.

That uncertainty weighs on sentiment because it raises the cost of doing business and makes long-term planning difficult. When the Senate declined to advance the bill, traders who had positioned for progress faced a sudden void. They responded by reducing exposure, and that reduction fed on itself.

Macro anxiety added another layer of pressure. The Federal Reserve has spent months tightening financial conditions, and a rate hike makes borrowing more expensive for everyone. Risk assets suffer first when money becomes costlier. Bitcoin and Ethereum trade like risk assets in moments of stress, regardless of the arguments about their long-term value.

The central bank meeting on September 16 became the immediate focal point. A less hawkish signal could offer relief. A firm hike could confirm the worst fears. Investors did not wait to find out. They sold first and planned to ask questions later. The Fed does not need to surprise the market to cause damage. The mere expectation of tighter policy can pull capital away from speculative bets.

Leverage turned a difficult session into a cascade. The total crypto market cap fell by 3.26 per cent, suggesting a broad, beta-driven move rather than a Bitcoin-specific issue. Within that broad decline, forced selling took over. Liquidations wiped out over US$226 million in Bitcoin long positions in 24 hours, a 163 per cent spike.

Liquidations across the market reached approximately US$146 million in long positions, with Ethereum and Bitcoin leading the forced selling. The mechanics are familiar. Traders borrow to amplify gains. Prices dip. Margin calls arrive. Traders sell to meet those calls. Selling pushes prices lower. More margin calls follow. This feedback loop can push prices well below fair value in a short window.

Bitcoin now sits at a technical crossroads. The intraday low of US$75,600 has become the most important level. If Bitcoin holds above that support, a relief rally toward US$77,000 resistance is possible. That scenario becomes more likely if the Fed signals a less hawkish stance than markets fear.

A break below US$75,600 would open the door to a deeper correction, with the next zone near US$74,000 as a possible target. Social media sentiment remains divided, with a net score of 4.7 on a zero-to-ten scale. That reading reflects cautious uncertainty rather than panic. Traders appear to be waiting for the Fed before committing to a direction. The 4.7 reading does not indicate capitulation. It indicates a market holding its breath.

Ethereum faces a similar set of pressures with its own technical twist. The asset broke below the lower support trendline of an ascending channel. A daily close below US$2,380 could signal further weakness toward US$2,200. If Ethereum can reclaim and hold above the US$2,380 to US$2,400 zone, it may attempt to stabilise between US$2,380 and US$2,500. The trend is bearish in the very short term, and direction hinges on macro news and key technical holds. Ethereum does have structural tailwinds.

Strong demand from exchange-traded fund inflows and a shrinking supply of exchange-traded funds would normally provide support. In this environment, immediate macro and sentiment headwinds have overwhelmed those tailwinds. That does not erase their importance, but it does show how quickly liquidity and leverage can dominate the narrative. Those tailwinds matter over months, not hours. In a leveraged sell-off, they provide little comfort to traders facing margin calls.

My own view is that this episode exposes a stubborn truth about digital assets. The industry has spent years arguing that Bitcoin and Ethereum offer a hedge against inflation and political dysfunction. When the Senate failed to advance a crypto-specific bill and the Fed prepared to raise rates, both assets fell in lockstep with technology stocks and other speculative holdings.

That correlation is not accidental. The same investors trade these assets. They use the same leverage. They react to the same macro signals. Until the sector develops a deeper base of non-speculative demand, it will remain vulnerable to decisions made in Washington and at the Federal Reserve. That dependence is not a flaw in the technology. It is a feature of the investor base.

The path forward is easy to describe and hard to execute. Bitcoin needs to defend US$75,600. Ethereum needs to defend US$2,380. If those levels hold after the Fed announcement, a relief rally is possible, but it will be fragile. If they break, the next targets are US$74,000 for Bitcoin and US$2,200 for Ethereum.

The market outlook is cautiously bearish for Bitcoin and bearish for Ethereum. The key watch is whether these assets can defend their support levels after the Fed decision, or whether macro fears trigger a deeper correction.

For now, the wise approach is to wait for the Fed, watch the reaction around those key levels, and monitor whether open interest and funding rates stabilise. That stabilisation would signal that the deleveraging is complete. Until then, prices remain in a precarious position. Forces outside any blockchain’s control hold it hostage. A single press conference can reshape the short-term path for both assets.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-falls-3-12-to-75697-61-did-washington-just-kill-the-rally-20260916/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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The Fed is the real crypto story, Bitcoin and Ethereum are just following

The Fed is the real crypto story, Bitcoin and Ethereum are just following

We have entered a cautious stretch. Bitcoin has slipped 0.72 per cent over the past 24 hours to US$76,697.14. Ethereum has fallen harder, down 1.95 per cent to US$2,474.93. This pullback reflects a broader market decline of 0.99 per cent. The dominant force behind this move is macro uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September 16 interest rate decision.

Traders are pricing in a high probability of a rate hike. That expectation has triggered risk-off sentiment across financial markets. A cascade of leveraged long liquidations has added pressure. My own view is simple. This is not a crypto story right now. This is a Fed story.

Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading as risk assets. Their next major move will come from the central bank, not from their own networks or adoption trends. The market-wide nature of this decline matters. Bitcoin does not show a unique weakness. It follows the same liquidity and policy expectations that shape other risk assets. That is why I focus on the Fed rather than on crypto-specific headlines.

Bitcoin’s decline looks modest on its own. Its alignment with the broader market matters more. The total crypto market cap has fallen 0.99 per cent. Bitcoin’s 0.72 per cent drop closely mirrors that move. This correlation tells me Bitcoin is following market beta rather than reacting to a coin-specific catalyst. The derivatives data shows a sharp spike in liquidations, up 1,331.93 per cent in 24 hours. That number sounds dramatic. This is a symptom of the sell-off and a leverage flush, not the primary cause. Forced selling from over-leveraged longs can accelerate a decline. It does not create the original spark. The provided data did not show a clear secondary driver for Bitcoin. I found no specific news event, exploit, or technical failure that explains the move independently of the macro backdrop.

The near-term path for Bitcoin depends on one level. The US$76,000 support zone is critical. If Bitcoin holds above US$76,000, a rebound toward US$78,500 is possible. A break below that support would risk a drop to US$74,000. This makes the Fed’s decision and its commentary on September 16 the key watch point. The market is in a holding pattern. Bitcoin sits at the centre of that wait. There is no need to overinterpret the small percentage decline. The larger signal is that traders have reduced risk ahead of a major policy event. Liquidity expectations and rate projections now matter more than short-term chart patterns for the largest cryptocurrency.

Ethereum faces a more difficult setup. Its 1.95 per cent decline to US$2,474.93 means it has underperformed a slightly weaker Bitcoin. The primary driver is a technical rejection at the US$2,530 to US$2,550 resistance zone. That area has drawn attention from multiple analysts as a critical ceiling. Ethereum tested it and failed to break through. This rejection occurred alongside rising Treasury yields and tightening macro expectations for a Fed rate hike. Those forces dampen appetite for risk assets like crypto. The provided data showed no clear coin-specific catalyst.

The move aligns with broader macro-driven caution. In my view, Ethereum’s underperformance makes sense. It faced a technical barrier and macro headwinds at the same time. Ethereum’s failure at resistance carries more weight because it happened during a macro-sensitive window. Traders already faced rising Treasury yields. A high probability of a Fed rate hike made them less willing to chase a breakout. The rejection at US$2,530 to US$2,550 gave them a reason to sell.

Forced selling from derivative liquidations amplified Ethereum’s decline. Liquidations wiped out over US$8.9M in ETH positions recently. One post highlighted US$8.9M in ETH liquidations at the US$2,523 level. The majority came from longs. That kind of forced selling creates short-term downward pressure. It does not necessarily reflect a fundamental shift in sentiment. A flush of over-leveraged traders exacerbated the drop. This is a common feature in volatile markets. This as a leverage cleanout rather than a verdict on Ethereum’s long-term value. The technical rejection gave the initial push. The liquidation cascade turned that push into a faster slide.

The near-term outlook for Ethereum is neutral to bearish while it remains below US$2,550. If ETH holds above the US$2,450 support, it could regroup for another attempt at the US$2,550 resistance. A decisive break below US$2,450 would target the next significant support zone around US$2,350 to US$2,400. Short-term moving averages converge in that zone. The critical event remains the Federal Open Market Committee meeting concluding September 16.

Market-implied probability for a hike is high. That creates uncertainty. The Fed’s policy statement and any changes in rate projections will likely drive the next significant move across crypto markets. My bias here is cautious. Ethereum needs to defend US$2,450 through the Fed announcement. A hawkish surprise could trigger a deeper correction toward US$2,350. I would treat the US$2,450 support as the line that separates a pause from a deeper move. A hold there keeps the current range intact. A break there shifts the focus to US$2,350 to US$2,400.

My point of view on this entire setup is that the crypto market is trading on macro beta, not on its own fundamentals. Bitcoin’s slight dip is a function of macro-driven, market-wide risk aversion ahead of a key Fed meeting. A flush of leveraged long positions amplified that move. The move lacks a distinct, coin-specific catalyst.

Ethereum’s pullback combines a failed technical breakout with pre-Fed risk reduction. Derivative liquidations added fuel. I would watch Bitcoin at US$76,000 and Ethereum at US$2,450. Those levels define the near-term battle lines. If support holds, both assets can attempt rebounds. Bitcoin could target US$78,500. Ethereum could retest US$2,550. If support breaks, Bitcoin risks US$74,000. Ethereum risks US$2,350 to US$2,400.

The broader market outlook is neutral to cautious for Bitcoin and cautiously bearish for Ethereum. The Fed’s interest rate decision and forward guidance on September 16 will set the tone for Bitcoin and other risk assets. Until that event passes, I expect choppy, headline-driven price action. The modest Bitcoin decline does not alarm me on its own. The Ethereum underperformance deserves more attention because it combines technical rejection, macro pressure, and a leverage flush. Both assets are waiting on the same catalyst. That catalyst is the Fed. The market has already moved into a defensive stance. Now it waits to see whether the central bank confirms or challenges that caution.

 

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Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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Why a strong jobs report hit Bitcoin and Ethereum harder than the stock market

Why a strong jobs report hit Bitcoin and Ethereum harder than the stock market

The cryptocurrency sector currently faces macroeconomic headwinds that dictate valuation changes across all major digital tokens. Bitcoin recently declined by 1.34 per cent to US$79,113.15 in a single 24-hour period. Ethereum followed a similar trajectory, dropping 1.17 per cent to trade at US$2,487.12. This synchronised pullback is clear evidence that digital assets no longer operate in an isolated ecosystem. Instead, they function as highly sensitive instruments that react directly to traditional economic indicators and central bank policies.

Market participants must understand these deep correlations to navigate the current environment successfully. Bitcoin currently demonstrates a 93 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 over the past week. This extremely high correlation perfectly illustrates my view that top-tier cryptocurrencies now function as macro assets that closely track shifts in liquidity and interest rate expectations.

A surprisingly strong United States employment report triggered this latest wave of selling pressure. The economy added 162,000 jobs in August, significantly exceeding analyst expectations. This robust labour market information immediately altered market expectations regarding monetary policy. Traders now assign an implied probability of around 60 per cent to a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Rising Treasury yields and a strengthening US Dollar naturally put pressure on risk assets across the board. Strong economic data directly contradicts participants’ hopes for a dovish pivot by the central bank.

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum react identically to these shifting global liquidity expectations. The second-largest cryptocurrency mirrors this broader beta move, dropping in tandem with the leading digital coin. Buyers and sellers currently maintain a delicate equilibrium as institutional players digest the robust employment numbers. Market participants must recognise that traditional financial metrics currently dictate the pace of changes in digital asset valuations.

This macro-driven selling pressure quickly exposed fragile conditions within the derivatives sector. Bitcoin recently attempted to reclaim the crucial US$80,000 psychological resistance threshold but stalled near US$79,700. This technical rejection sparked a severe cascade of leveraged long liquidations. Total crypto derivatives liquidations hit US$208 million within a single 24-hour window. Overextended long positions accounted for US$119 million of this total selling volume. I always warn participants about the dangers of excessive leverage during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty.

High leverage consistently amplifies routine pullbacks into violent localized crashes. This recent liquidation event clearly highlights the risks of overextending bullish positions in the face of strong economic data. Fragile derivatives conditions inevitably punish speculators who ignore the underlying macroeconomic reality. Overextended speculators suffered significant capital losses when the leading digital coin failed to sustain upward momentum above key psychological thresholds.

Bitcoin now faces several critical technical thresholds that will dictate its short-term trajectory. The asset must defend the immediate Fibonacci support at US$79,390, which marks the 61.8 per cent retracement level. A failure to hold this specific line invites a swift test of the recent swing low near US$78,685. The broader sector currently expects a consolidation range of US$78,000 to US$80,500. A definitive break below the US$78,000 support zone risks a deeper drop toward US$77,200 or potentially the US$77,200 to US$77,600 range.

Conversely, buyers who successfully reclaim the US$80,500 threshold could push the valuation toward a new target of US$82,000. Speculators must watch these boundaries closely to gauge underlying momentum and adjust their strategies accordingly. Participants should always respect these major technical barriers and avoid aggressive positioning until clear directional signals emerge from the daily charts.

Ethereum closely mirrors this broader beta move and reacts in the same way to the shifting global liquidity landscape. They currently consolidate within a tight technical range of US$2,450 to US$2,530. The daily relative strength index sits at 63.53, cooling off noticeably from previous overbought conditions. Daily trading volume also fell by 35 per cent, indicating a distinct slowdown in buying intensity across the network. I interpret these metrics as a sign that buyers and sellers currently maintain a delicate equilibrium near the US$2,500 threshold.

The network simply needs time to digest the strong August rally before committing to a definitive directional move. This consolidation phase allows the broader ecosystem to build a stronger foundation for future valuation appreciation. Institutional players utilise these quiet periods to accumulate positions without significantly impacting the daily order books.

Institutional demand provides a crucial foundation for Ethereum despite the current technical cooldown. United States spot ether exchange-traded funds attracted US$218.4 million in net inflows last week. This steady capital injection proves that large-scale players still accumulate the asset during valuation dips. Ethereum’s immediate path depends heavily on the US$2,475 support level and the US$2,550 resistance level.

A break below US$2,475 risks a significant drop toward the next key Fibonacci support at US$2,292 or potentially down to US$2,400. A sustained break above US$2,530 would signal returning strength and trigger the next upward leg. Participants must monitor these specific thresholds to anticipate the next major valuation movement and position their portfolios effectively. Strict adherence to these technical boundaries allows speculators to manage risk efficiently during periods of heightened macroeconomic uncertainty.

Underlying institutional strength also supports the broader Bitcoin ecosystem and prevents a total collapse in sentiment. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds pulled in a massive US$987 million last week. This remarkable inflow volume demonstrates that traditional finance participants continue to allocate capital to digital tokens despite short-term volatility. The entire crypto ecosystem now eagerly awaits the August Consumer Price Index report arriving on September 11.

This crucial inflation information will directly influence Federal Reserve policy expectations and determine the next major sector trend. A hotter inflation print will cement fears of rate hikes and further pressure valuations. A cooler reading might relieve the current macro pressure and allow risk assets to rebound strongly. Observers must prepare for both scenarios before the official information release.

Digital tokens trade almost entirely on global liquidity conditions, interest rate trajectories, and institutional risk appetite. Patience and strict adherence to technical thresholds will consistently reward disciplined speculators in this highly sensitive macro environment. The ongoing stalemate between steady exchange-traded fund inflows and looming central bank uncertainty defines this moment. Traders must strictly manage their risk and avoid aggressive leverage until the macroeconomic picture is fully clear.

Market observers must recognise that traditional financial markets currently dictate the pace of changes in digital asset valuations. Investors who ignore this reality will inevitably suffer unnecessary portfolio drawdowns during periods of intense macroeconomic volatility. The September 11 inflation data will decide whether the market breaks down toward lower support zones or resumes its broader upward trajectory.

 

Source: https://e27.co/why-a-strong-jobs-report-hit-bitcoin-and-ethereum-harder-than-the-stock-market-20260908/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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