Tag Archives: bitcoin

Why Bitcoin’s move to US$63K has nothing to do with crypto and everything to do with Iran

Why Bitcoin’s move to US$63K has nothing to do with crypto and everything to do with Iran

Bitcoin recently climbed 0.96 per cent to reach US$62,994.44 over the last 24 hours. This slight outperformance against a flat broader market highlights a profound shift in investor psychology. We currently witness a strong correlation between digital assets and traditional risk instruments. This dynamic proves that macroeconomic forces now dictate cryptocurrency price action far more than isolated blockchain developments.

These movements through a lens of institutional liquidity and macroeconomic correlation. Speculative financial activities like cryptocurrency trading often resemble gambling, but they offer better odds than traditional casinos when participants understand the underlying macroeconomic drivers.

The current rally stems primarily from improved global sentiment rather than any fundamental upgrade to the Bitcoin network. We must look at the broader economic picture to understand this price discovery phase. Recognising these underlying patterns allows us to separate genuine market shifts from temporary noise.

The primary catalyst for this renewed risk appetite is the easing of geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran. President Donald Trump stated on July 9 that Iran wants to negotiate a deal. This single comment immediately lowered oil prices and softened United States Treasury yields. Traders quickly realised that a broader military conflict remains unlikely.

Consequently, lower energy costs reduce the urgency for inflation hedging. This environment drastically improves liquidity conditions for speculative assets. When bond yields drop, capital naturally flows toward higher-risk instruments in search of better returns.

The market operates on these predictable liquidity cycles. We see this exact pattern repeat whenever geopolitical fears subside, and central bank policies hint at future easing. Investors simply rotate capital back into risk assets to capture yield. This relentless pursuit of returns defines the modern financial landscape and drives continuous asset price inflation.

Traditional equity markets clearly reflected this shift in sentiment on July 9. The S&P 500 climbed 60.93 points to close at 7,543.64, representing a 0.81 per cent gain. The Nasdaq Composite surged even higher, adding 336.24 points to reach 26,206.89, a 1.30 per cent increase. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also posted solid gains, rising 139.02 points to finish at 52,487.41.

Technology and artificial intelligence stocks led this charge in the American markets. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF jumped 2.5 per cent, while Micron Technology shares skyrocketed 4.5 per cent. Investors viewed the recent semiconductor sell-off as a prime buying opportunity. This massive influx of capital into technology shares perfectly mirrors the recovery we see in digital assets. Both sectors thrive on cheap liquidity and optimistic forward guidance. When the cost of capital decreases, valuation multiples expand across the board, benefiting growth-oriented companies the most.

Global markets followed this American optimism into the Asian trading sessions. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed steadily, mirroring the Wall Street rally. South Korea experienced a massive surge, with the Kospi index rallying three per cent. SK Hynix drove this Asian momentum by raising US$26.5 billion in a massive American depositary receipt offering on the Nasdaq. This colossal capital raise underscores the insatiable global demand for artificial intelligence and semiconductor infrastructure.

International investors clearly recognise the long-term value of these technology sectors. This global capital flow reinforces the macroeconomic thesis driving both traditional equities and digital assets. We operate in a deeply interconnected global financial system where liquidity flows seamlessly across borders and asset classes.

Within the cryptocurrency ecosystem, we observe a clear defensive rotation toward high-liquidity assets. Bitcoin dominance rose to 58.35 per cent as capital fled smaller, riskier altcoins. The broader market sentiment remains deeply fearful, with the Fear and Greed Index sitting at a dismal 28. Despite this pervasive fear, spot trading volume held steady while derivatives volume plummeted 19.94 per cent.

This divergence tells a very specific story. Selective spot buying drove the recent rally, with no leveraged speculation. Smart money accumulates positions quietly when the masses panic. We need to see a rebound in stablecoin trading volume to confirm that fresh capital enters the ecosystem.

Until then, we merely witness existing capital reshuffling within the Bitcoin network. Observing these internal flows provides crucial insights into the true health of the broader digital asset ecosystem. Commodity and bond markets further validate this risk-on narrative.

United States crude oil settled at US$71.83 a barrel, while Brent crude dropped to around US$76 a barrel. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.55 per cent, signalling a flight away from safe-haven government debt. Markets stabilised after an initial jump in oil prices when the interim ceasefire announcement caused temporary panic.

Technical indicators present a cautiously bullish near-term outlook with significant overhead resistance. Bitcoin currently consolidates just below the major resistance level of US$64,700. The 50-day simple moving average sits at US$65,624, presenting the first major hurdle. The 200-day simple moving average looms even higher at US$74,225, confirming that the medium-term structure remains corrective.

If buyers maintain control and hold the price above US$62,500, we could easily test that US$64,700 resistance. A break below US$61,300 opens the door for a swift drop toward US$60,000. The immediate direction hinges entirely on the US$1.4 billion options expiry happening today, July 10. Market makers will defend their positions aggressively around these key levels.

Traders must watch the daily close closely to confirm the next major trend. Ignoring these critical technical boundaries often leads to severe capital destruction in highly volatile markets. Traders quickly factored in a potential return to diplomatic negotiations. This entire sequence of events highlights the predictable nature of human psychology in financial markets. Fear drives prices down, and relief drives them back up.

As we navigate this complex landscape, we must rely on independent analysis rather than mainstream narratives. The convergence of macroeconomic policy, geopolitical events, and technical market structure will ultimately determine the future of our global financial infrastructure. True decentralisation requires us to understand these macro forces deeply.

We must also remain vigilant against the rise of Central Bank Digital Currencies, which threaten to introduce unprecedented surveillance into our daily financial lives. Preserving privacy and maintaining true decentralisation demand that we master these complex dynamics to successfully navigate the inevitable shifts in our rapidly evolving financial system.

 

Source: https://e27.co/why-bitcoins-move-to-us63k-has-nothing-to-do-with-crypto-and-everything-to-do-with-iran-20260710/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Why US$1.4 billion in Bitcoin longs could drag Bitcoin down to US$53,500?

Why US$1.4 billion in Bitcoin longs could drag Bitcoin down to US$53,500?

Bitcoin recently experienced a 1.94 per cent decline over a 24-hour period, settling at US$62,359.14. This downward movement underperformed a slightly weaker broader market. The mainstream narrative often attributes such drops to random market sentiment or fleeting panic. A deeper analysis reveals a precise combination of macroeconomic shocks and derivatives mechanics driving this specific price action. The current environment demands that we separate genuine structural shifts from the noise of leveraged speculation.

The primary catalyst for this recent selloff stems directly from escalating geopolitical friction between the United States and Iran. President Donald Trump declared the existing ceasefire with Iran completely over on July 8 and explicitly warned of potential military strikes. This rhetoric immediately sparked intense fears regarding severe oil supply disruptions across the Middle East. Crude prices spiked, triggering a massive risk-off shift across global financial markets. Traditional investors fled to safety, and Bitcoin traded exactly like a risk asset in this highly charged environment.

The digital currency sold off alongside equities as macro uncertainty dominated trader psychology. The market will continue suppressing risk appetite until traders price in a clear de-escalation in this specific geopolitical rhetoric. Global supply chains remain highly sensitive to Middle Eastern stability, and any hint of armed conflict instantly reprices risk assets across every major exchange and traditional brokerage.

A severe derivatives liquidation cascade significantly amplified the downward price movement beyond the initial geopolitical headline. The sharp initial drop triggered massive forced closures of leveraged positions across major exchanges. Data indicates that these platforms liquidated approximately US$71.24 million in Bitcoin positions within that 24-hour window. Long positions accounted for the vast majority of these closures. This forced selling created a vicious feedback loop that punished late buyers. Overleveraged bulls watched their positions evaporate while automatic market selling accelerated the decline.

I have always viewed excessive leverage in crypto as a form of gambling. The current liquidation event perfectly illustrates the danger of ignoring this fundamental truth and relying on borrowed capital. Exchanges automatically execute these market orders the moment margin requirements fail, completely removing human discretion from the equation and ensuring maximum pain for late participants.

This brings us to the widespread confusion surrounding liquidation heatmaps and the glaring US$1.4 billion in Bitcoin longs currently sitting in the danger zone. Many retail traders mistakenly believe this massive liquidity magnet guarantees a price visit to US$53,500. They fundamentally misunderstand the core mechanics of these charts. A liquidity magnet simply represents a zone where leveraged positions concentrate heavily. If the price moves toward this zone, forced liquidations create a cascade of selling that accelerates the move.

The market only reaches this destination if sufficient selling pressure exists. Without overwhelming downward momentum, the market leaves that magnet entirely untested. Smart traders utilise these maps to identify where volatility might explode rather than treating them as absolute price predictions. Price action ultimately depends on the balance between genuine spot demand and speculative leverage, not merely on the location of clustered margin positions.

We must evaluate both the bearish and bullish arguments objectively to understand the true market structure. The bearish case relies heavily on the crowded long positions sitting below the current price. Bitcoin is currently struggling to reclaim the US$64,000 level, and leverage continues to build across the ecosystem. Bears argue that a flush toward the largest liquidation cluster will inevitably reset the market and clear out the excess speculation. The bullish case highlights the strong spot buyers actively defending the US$60,000 to US$62,000 region.

Several analysts point out that the larger liquidity pockets actually sit much closer to the US$55,000 to US$57,000 range. Growing optimism around potential interest rate cuts provides a strong fundamental backdrop. Dip buyers have sufficient capital to absorb selling pressure before a deeper cascade begins. Institutional accumulation patterns suggest that major players view these dips as prime accumulation opportunities rather than reasons to panic and exit their positions.

Technical indicators provide further clarity on this battle between spot demand and leveraged positioning. The market recently rejected Bitcoin at the US$63,600 resistance level. The asset now tests the key Fibonacci 50 per cent retracement level situated at US$62,497.95. A large cluster of long positions sits dangerously close to the US$61,000 mark. A drop into this specific zone could easily trigger another violent liquidation wave.

Market participants must also closely watch the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes. These minutes have the power to sway rate-cut expectations and provide the next major macro catalyst. The current trend shows decidedly bearish characteristics in the very short term. The broader market is actively seeking a definitive directional signal to guide the next major leg. Central bank communications often dictate the broader liquidity environment, making these documents essential reading for anyone managing substantial digital asset portfolios.

The combination of a sudden macro shock and a derivatives flush has undeniably pushed Bitcoin lower and created substantial bearish pressure. The path forward hinges entirely on two critical factors. First, the market needs clear geopolitical developments to remove the macro overhang. Second, Bitcoin must demonstrate the ability to defend its major support levels. The immediate key watch centres on whether the asset can reclaim and hold above the US$62,500 level.

A successful defence here opens the door for a rebound toward US$63,600. A daily close below US$62,000 invites a much deeper correction toward the US$60,000 to US$59,000 support area. Real spot demand will ultimately overpower reckless leveraged positioning. Those who understand this distinction will navigate the current volatility with precision, while the gamblers will simply provide the liquidity for the next major directional move in this endlessly fascinating market.

 

Source: https://e27.co/why-us1-4-billion-in-bitcoin-longs-could-drag-bitcoin-down-to-us53500-20260709/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Why Bitcoin’s record on chain activity is not the price guarantee you think it is

Why Bitcoin’s record on chain activity is not the price guarantee you think it is

Bitcoin has retreated by 0.52 per cent over a 24h period, sliding to US$63,593.12 and underperforming a generally flat broader market. This downward movement stems primarily from a firm technical rejection at key resistance zones alongside cooling momentum following a strong weekly rally. Sellers emerged to halt the July advance, which had reached 8.4 per cent before hitting a known technical ceiling near US$65,800. Compounding this technical slowdown is a notable 13.95 per cent drop in 24h trading volume, indicating reduced buying conviction after the market booked four consecutive daily gains last week.

Beyond the immediate price action and cooling technical indicators, underlying demand metrics point to broader institutional hesitation in Western markets. United States spot demand remains structurally subdued, as evidenced by the Coinbase premium remaining negative for over 50 days. This persistent discount suggests that domestic retail and institutional investors are withholding aggressive buy orders, leaving spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund flows highly inconsistent. At the same time, aggregate open interest in Bitcoin futures markets has declined. This reduction in open interest signals that speculative leverage is actively leaving the market rather than expanding, leaving recent price gains vulnerable to pullbacks without a strong institutional bid to support the base.

While the short-term price action remains constrained by these technical ceilings and cooling derivatives markets, the underlying Bitcoin network is experiencing an unprecedented surge in utility. On-chain data indicate that Bitcoin is processing its highest sustained transaction volume in its 17-year history. The network is averaging approximately 670,000 transactions per day throughout 2026, nearly doubling last year’s activity and approaching prior all-time highs. A deeper analysis reveals that recent data indicate the network processes an average of 673,822 transactions per day. This broad-based rebound in usage is characterised by a high volume of small transactions and emerging applications, rather than by large-value transfers alone.

Specific daily metrics confirm the historic scale of this on-chain activity. According to block data, the Bitcoin network processed 862,979 transactions on June 23, 2026, marking the 3rd-busiest single day in the protocol’s history. This explosive activity lifted the daily average for June 2026 to 651,655 transactions, a 90 per cent increase over the June 2025 daily average of 342,866 transactions. Both the median and average daily transaction counts across 2026 now comfortably exceed the full-year totals for 2024 and 2025. This structural shift is driven largely by an increase in smaller transactions, alongside innovative use cases such as Bitcoin non-fungible tokens and timestamping services that write data directly to the blockchain.

This high transaction count introduces a complex dynamic for the ecosystem, as it reflects a diverse mix of traditional value transfers, exchange settlements, whale movements, and newer programmable applications. For everyday users, this elevated activity demands close observation of average fees, mempool sizes, and layer 2 sidechain congestion to determine if the base layer can handle the load. The current market outlook remains neutral to bearish below immediate resistance, though the primary trend hinges on the US$63,619 support level, which aligns with the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci regression. If Bitcoin can defend this support level, it sets up another potential run toward US$65,800, whereas a daily close below this level risks an immediate drop to US$61,377.

The market’s immediate direction is closely tied to broader macroeconomic shocks and sudden geopolitical escalations that are fracturing global investor confidence. Major global financial markets fell sharply as escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, combined with a steep semiconductor sell-off, broke the record-setting momentum on Wall Street. Following Iran’s targeting of three commercial tankers in the critical Strait of Hormuz, the United States military executed powerful retaliatory airstrikes. Simultaneously, the United States Treasury revoked a vital waiver that had previously allowed Iran to sell crude oil globally, triggering fears of severe supply disruptions and sending global energy benchmarks rocketing upward.

The impact of these energy market disruptions was immediate and volatile across global oil benchmarks. Brent crude surged by over five per cent to breach US$75.70 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 5.3 per cent to finish trading above US$72.20 per barrel. This inflationary energy shock hit equity markets precisely as technology stocks suffered an independent structural rout. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell significantly, led by a 4.65 per cent plunge in the PHLX Semiconductor Index. Investor confidence in long-term market dominance and pricing power evaporated after reports that a Chinese startup, DeepSeek, is independently developing its own artificial intelligence chip architecture, shaking the core growth thesis of established technology giants.

This shift in technology sector sentiment highlights a growing disconnect between blockbuster corporate earnings and loftier investor expectations. Samsung Electronics reported record preliminary quarterly profits, yet its stock still plunged 6.9 per cent in Asian trading, illustrating that market expectations for artificial intelligence build-out metrics have reached unsustainably high levels. The resulting sector pullback forced major tech components lower, with Micron falling 4.7 per cent and SanDisk retreating by 7.3 per cent. These equity losses were exacerbated by macro pressures in fixed-income markets, where the United States 10-Year Treasury yield edged up to 4.556 per cent, compressing stock valuations across high-growth sectors.

Faced with these overlapping pressures, investors are demonstrating severe caution ahead of the afternoon release of the Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the June meeting. This policy document represents the very first official communication issued under the leadership of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh. Market participants are waiting to see whether Bitcoin can reclaim its 7-day exponential moving average near US$62,702 or if macro comments will force a deeper flush toward lower support levels. I said the same yesterday, too.

The combination of technical resistance, weak spot demand, semiconductor sector anxiety, and escalating energy prices has forced a neutral range consolidation, proving that even record-breaking on-chain utility cannot completely shield digital assets from macro volatility.

 

Source: https://e27.co/why-bitcoins-record-on-chain-activity-is-not-the-price-guarantee-you-think-it-is-20260708/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j