December 16th, 2025

Crypto faces triple threat: Senate stall, macro jitters, and technical breakdown

The crypto market’s stumble reflects a confluence of structural, technical, and macro forces that have converged with unusual intensity over the past 24 to 48 hours. This pullback lies a triple threat: regulatory inertia in Washington, a violent unwind of speculative leverage across derivatives markets, and the fracturing of key technical support levels that have historically anchored bullish sentiment.

Together, these dynamics have amplified risk-off behaviour across digital assets, pushing the broader market into a 4.12 per cent decline in just one day and extending weekly losses to nearly five per cent. This correction is not merely a knee-jerk reaction to volatility but a manifestation of deeper vulnerabilities that have built up during the recent rally toward all-time highs.

The most immediate catalyst stems from Washington, where the US Senate Banking Committee formally postponed any vote on comprehensive crypto market structure legislation until early 2026. This deferral effectively kills any chance of meaningful regulatory clarity before the next presidential term, leaving the industry in a state of prolonged ambiguity. For years, market participants have pinned hopes on a legislative framework that would delineate jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, provide safe harbours for token issuers, and establish clear rules for spot and derivatives markets.

The delay dashes those expectations and reinforces a narrative of institutional caution. Evidence of this caution surfaced immediately in ETF flows, where US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded US$158.8 million in net outflows during December, signalling a retreat by institutional allocators. Even more telling was the US$19.4 million outflow from Ethereum ETFs on December 15 alone, led by ETHA, which underscores waning confidence in the second-largest digital asset amid both regulatory headwinds and technical deterioration.

Compounding this policy vacuum is a dramatic deleveraging event across the crypto derivatives landscape. Total derivatives volume exploded by 59 per cent to US$330.57 trillion, with perpetual swaps alone surging 166 per cent over 24 hours, a clear sign of speculative fever. But as price momentum stalled, that leverage turned toxic. Bitcoin liquidations spiked to US$174.7 million, a 58 per cent increase from the prior day, with long positions bearing 94 per cent of those losses.

Ethereum fared no better, suffering US$164.5 million in long-side liquidations as its price tumbled 6.65 per cent. The presence of extreme leverage ratios, with some platforms still offering up to 1001x, is particularly destabilising in this environment, as even minor price movements can trigger cascading margin calls. With open interest still sitting at an elevated US$789 billion, the market remains vulnerable to further forced selling should the downward momentum persist, especially if macro data or external catalysts fail to restore confidence.

Technically, the situation has deteriorated to a critical juncture. Bitcoin now hovers dangerously close to its two-year simple moving average at US$82,800, a level that has historically marked the onset of prolonged bear markets when breached on a weekly close. The broader crypto market capitalisation has slipped below its 30-day moving average of US$3.06 trillion, and the 14-day Relative Strength Index for the aggregate market sits at 36.91, edging toward oversold but still lacking a clear reversal signal.

Perhaps most concerning is the position of long-term holders, specifically the cohort that acquired coins between six and 12 months ago. This group now faces unrealised losses of 11.6 per cent, a threshold that often prompts distribution as conviction wanes. Ethereum’s own technical picture has darkened further with a decisive break below its 200-week moving average near US$2,800, a long-standing pillar of support that, once lost, tends to accelerate downside momentum in multi-month cycles.

Macro crosscurrents have not provided much relief. Equity markets, particularly US tech, are showing signs of fatigue as investors brace for a dense cluster of economic data, headlined by today’s November jobs report. Consensus expectations call for a modest 50,000 payroll gain, but the range is unusually wide, spanning from a contraction of 20,000 jobs to an addition of 127,000. More significantly, the unemployment rate is projected to tick up to 4.5 per cent, a move that could complicate the Federal Reserve’s narrative around labour market resilience.

While a softer report might revive hopes for early 2025 rate cuts, the market remains sceptical given recent hawkish commentary from Fed officials. This uncertainty has kept the VIX anchored in the mid-teens with elevated skew, reflecting demand for downside protection. Meanwhile, the strong correlation between crypto and the Nasdaq, measured at plus 0.89 over the past 24 hours, means that any equity market weakness is likely to spill over into digital assets.

Geopolitical developments add another layer of complexity. US negotiators have reportedly offered Ukraine security guarantees resembling NATO’s Article 5 as part of a potential peace framework, a move that has dampened safe-haven demand for gold and crude oil. Ukrainian peace hopes, combined with Trump’s assertion that a settlement is closer than ever, have triggered a selloff in commodities and shifted risk appetite toward equities and away from defensive assets.

However, this optimism remains fragile, especially with central bank meetings looming from both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. The pound has softened ahead of the BoE decision, while the yen has firmed just below 155 against the dollar, suggesting that currency markets are also navigating a delicate balance between monetary policy divergence and geopolitical risk.

Against this backdrop, the crypto market finds itself at an inflexion point. The confluence of regulatory delay, leverage collapse, and technical fragility has created a self-reinforcing feedback loop that could deepen losses unless offset by countervailing forces. One such force could come from institutional accumulation.

MicroStrategy’s recent US$980 million Bitcoin purchase demonstrates that some large players view this dip as a strategic entry opportunity. If other corporate treasuries or ETF sponsors follow suit, particularly if today’s jobs data supports a dovish pivot, the market could stabilise above the US$82,800 threshold. Conversely, if payroll numbers come in hot and reinforce the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance, risk assets across the board may face renewed pressure, dragging crypto lower alongside tech equities.

I believe today’s decline is not an isolated event but a symptom of deeper structural imbalances. The next 48 hours, anchored by the US jobs report and central bank commentary, will likely determine whether this pullback evolves into a deeper correction or sets the stage for another leg higher on renewed institutional demand.

Source: https://e27.co/crypto-faces-triple-threat-senate-stall-macro-jitters-and-technical-breakdown-20251216/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

November 28th, 2025

Crypto’s triple threat: Exchange hack, technical rejection, and Fed policy fog

The crypto market’s 1.24 per cent decline over the past 24 hours reflects a convergence of distinct yet interlocking pressures: security vulnerabilities, technical resistance, and macroeconomic ambiguity. All of this unfolds against the backdrop of a quiet US holiday week. While the broader seven-day trend remains in positive territory at plus 4.26 per cent, the short-term retracement underscores the fragility of risk sentiment in an environment where liquidity thins, correlations tighten, and geopolitical shocks reverberate through digital asset markets with amplified force.

This week’s bearish tilt lies in the Upbit hack, a stark reminder that even regulated, institutionally backed exchanges remain high-value targets for sophisticated threat actors. On November 27, South Korea’s largest cryptocurrency platform confirmed a theft of US$30.4 million in digital assets, with early forensic evidence pointing squarely to North Korea’s Lazarus Group. This attribution carries weight not only because of its geopolitical implications but also due to the group’s notorious track record of targeting crypto infrastructure to fund regime activities.

The market’s immediate reaction, a plunge into Extreme Fear as measured by the Fear & Greed Index dropping to 20, demonstrates how legacy concerns about custody and exchange security continue to haunt an asset class striving for mainstream legitimacy. Investors responded by rotating capital toward perceived safe havens within the crypto universe, notably Bitcoin, whose dominance rose to 58.61 per cent. This flight to relative stability highlights a recurring pattern. When trust in centralised intermediaries erodes, decentralised base-layer assets often benefit, even if only temporarily.

Compounding this security-driven caution was a decisive technical breakdown in Bitcoin’s price structure. For days, US$92,000 had served as a critical psychological and structural resistance level. The failure to sustain a breakout above this threshold triggered a cascade of algorithmic sell orders, resulting in US$20.41 million in liquidations, predominantly short positions caught off guard by the initial dip but unable to recover as momentum faded. Technical indicators further reinforced the bearish undertone. While the 14-day RSI at 42.63 remains technically neutral, it shows a clear loss of upward momentum, slipping from overbought territory earlier in the week.

Meanwhile, the MACD histogram, though still positive at plus 20.24 billion, presents a troubling divergence. Price action contradicts the bullish signal implied by the indicator, suggesting a weakening of buyers’ conviction. Compounding the issue, derivatives open interest fell by nearly 5 per cent, signalling that leveraged traders are stepping back, a classic sign of risk aversion ahead of major macroeconomic events.

This brings us to the third pillar of today’s market dynamics: macro correlation and policy uncertainty. Despite the US equity markets being closed for Thanksgiving, crypto did not trade in isolation. Its seven-day correlation with the Nasdaq-100, measured via the QQQ ETF, has surged to an unusually tight 0.92. This near-perfect linkage means that even in the absence of US equity trading, crypto remains hostage to the same macro narratives driving tech stocks, namely, the path of Federal Reserve policy. Recent US jobs data came in stronger than expected, tempering market expectations for aggressive rate cuts.

While UOB still anticipates a 25 basis point reduction at the December 17 FOMC meeting, the probability has softened from near-certainty to approximately 85 per cent. This shift matters deeply for crypto, which has increasingly functioned as a risk-sensitive asset class. The slowdown in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, dropping to just US$21 million on November 26 compared to US$128 million on prior high-volume days, reflects institutional hesitation. With the Fed entering its pre-meeting blackout period this weekend through December 12, 2025, traders are left to navigate a policy vacuum, relying on lagging indicators and thin holiday liquidity to set prices.

That thin liquidity has magnified market volatility. Total 24-hour trading volume across major exchanges fell by 21.5 per cent, a typical seasonal pattern during US holidays, but one that exacerbates price swings when large orders enter the market. In such environments, even modest sell pressure, whether from hacked assets being offloaded or leveraged positions unwinding, can trigger outsized moves. This dynamic is particularly acute in crypto, where market depth remains shallower than in traditional equities or FX markets, despite growing institutional participation.

Within this short-term turbulence, structural undercurrents remain supportive. The broader macro environment still points toward impending monetary easing. Bond markets signal renewed appetite for fixed income, with UOB noting that spread widening has made quality bonds attractive again, a precursor to rate cuts. Meanwhile, the US dollar has held steady, and Asian currencies are gaining modest ground, buoyed by easing trade tensions and a stable Chinese yuan. These factors create a more favourable external backdrop for risk assets, including crypto, once the immediate fog of uncertainty lifts.

Looking ahead, three variables will dictate the market’s next directional move. First, developments in the Upbit investigation could either calm nerves if authorities confirm containment and recovery efforts or deepen panic if stolen funds begin circulating widely. Second, Bitcoin’s ability to hold the 89,080 dollar level, which corresponds to the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement of its recent rally, will serve as a critical technical support.

A breakdown below this level could invite further liquidations and test deeper support zones. Third, and most importantly, Friday’s release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will offer the clearest signal yet on whether December’s anticipated rate cut remains on track. A softer print would likely reignite risk appetite across equities, bonds, and crypto alike, while a hotter-than-expected reading could extend the current period of caution.

In sum, today’s dip is not a reversal of trend but a recalibration, a moment of hesitation amid overlapping uncertainties. The crypto market, now deeply enmeshed in the global macro framework, cannot escape the gravitational pull of Fed policy, tech sector sentiment, or geopolitical risk. Its resilience over the past week, despite the Upbit breach and technical rejection, suggests underlying demand remains intact.

The challenge for market participants lies in distinguishing transient noise from structural shifts. In a world where digital assets increasingly mirror traditional financial cycles, patience and precision will determine who navigates this transitional phase most successfully.

Source: https://e27.co/cryptos-triple-threat-exchange-hack-technical-rejection-and-fed-policy-fog-20251128/

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

September 2nd, 2025

Global markets navigate political fault lines as technical rebound meets institutional crosscurrents

While US markets observed the Labour Day holiday, the quiet trading session masked underlying tensions simmering across multiple continents.

Europe on edge: France’s political turmoil spreads to bonds

European bond markets experienced broad-based weakness, particularly in France, where the spectre of a confidence vote threatening the stability of the government sent ripples through sovereign debt markets. The spread between French and German 10-year yields, a critical gauge of perceived risk within the Eurozone’s core, stabilised at 79 basis points. This figure, while slightly below the August 27 peak of 82 basis points, the highest level since January, remains deeply concerning.

Historically, such widening indicates heightened investor anxiety about fiscal sustainability and political cohesion. The French situation is not merely a domestic issue; it directly impacts the broader European project. A collapse of the current government could derail crucial budget negotiations and reignite fears about the Eurozone’s structural fragility, potentially forcing the European Central Bank into an uncomfortable position between managing inflation and preventing a sovereign debt flare-up.

The market’s nervousness reflects a very real possibility that political paralysis could lead to delayed fiscal adjustments, increasing the risk of a ratings downgrade and further capital flight from French assets.

Indonesia’s market shock: Politics trigger capital flight

Turning eastward, Indonesia emerged as a focal point of volatility. Its main stock index, the Jakarta Composite Index, plummeted 3.6 per cent on Monday, marking the steepest single-day decline in nearly five months. This sharp selloff was directly attributable to escalating political tensions following the recent presidential election.

The specific nature of these tensions involves contested results and legal challenges that have cast doubt on the smooth transition of power, a critical factor for emerging market stability. Investors reacted swiftly and severely, withdrawing capital perceived as exposed to potential policy uncertainty or social unrest.

The immediate consequence extended beyond equities; yields on Indonesia’s 10-year government bonds surged to their highest level in almost three weeks. Rising bond yields signal increased borrowing costs for the government and corporations, tightening financial conditions within the economy.

This dual pressure on stocks and bonds creates a challenging environment for the Bank of Indonesia, which must now weigh the need to potentially support the rupiah and contain inflation against the risk of further stifling economic growth. Indonesia’s vulnerability highlights a recurring theme in emerging markets where political instability can rapidly translate into significant financial market stress, deterring foreign investment and increasing the cost of capital across the board.

Commodities react to sanctions and safe-haven demand

Commodity markets displayed a more mixed picture. The US Dollar Index held relatively steady at 97.81, reflecting a temporary pause in the greenback’s recent trajectory as traders awaited key US economic data. Gold, however, saw a modest increase of 0.8 per cent, climbing to US$3476 per ounce.

This movement suggests a slight shift towards safe-haven assets, possibly driven by the European political anxieties and broader global uncertainties, even if the US market holiday limited overall activity. Brent crude oil futures rose 1.0 per cent to settle at US$68 per barrel.

This gain stemmed from a specific supply disruption: Saudi Arabia and Iraq halted crude oil shipments to a refinery in western India following European Union sanctions. While the immediate impact on global supply appears contained, it underscores the persistent vulnerability of energy markets to geopolitical friction and the complex interplay of international sanctions.

The incident serves as a reminder that regional political conflicts can quickly constrict supply chains, creating localised price spikes even amidst generally stable global oil fundamentals. Early Tuesday trading saw Asian equity indices open higher, potentially reflecting a degree of relief or positioning ahead of anticipated US economic data releases later in the week, though this initial move requires confirmation as trading volumes increase.

Crypto divergence: Bitcoin finds support, Ethereum stumbles

The cryptocurrency sector presented a stark contrast between Bitcoin and Ethereum, revealing divergent market dynamics.

Bitcoin edged up 0.81 per cent over the past 24 hours to US$109,151, slightly outperforming the broader crypto market which saw only a negligible 0.03 per cent gain. This minor recovery, while modest, carries significance as it occurred against a backdrop of a 3.5 per cent monthly decline.

The technical structure provided the immediate catalyst. Bitcoin stabilised just above a critical pivot point at US$108,804 after its Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicated oversold conditions, climbing from 38.59 to 40.56. This technical rebound suggests short-term traders actively bought the dip near this psychological and technical support level, anticipating a bounce.

Simultaneously, institutional activity offered a glimmer of positive sentiment. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded substantial inflows totalling US$550 million during the week, a notable figure given the prevailing market uncertainty. This institutional accumulation, even amidst volatility, signals continued long-term conviction from major players, providing a structural underpinning for the asset. However, the broader technical picture remains cautious.

Bitcoin continues to trade below all key moving averages, including the 7-day Simple Moving Average at US$110,039, indicating that the dominant momentum trend is still bearish. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, while showing slowing selling pressure at -625, remains firmly in negative territory.

The critical juncture now lies at the US$110,000 psychological and technical resistance level. A sustained break above this mark could trigger significant short-covering and attract fresh buying, potentially altering the near-term trajectory. Conversely, failure to hold above US$108,804 risks a retest of the June swing low near US$107,271, deepening the correction.

Ethereum told a markedly different story, falling 2.26 per cent to US$4,307.74 and significantly underperforming the broader market. Two primary forces drove this weakness. First, a decisive technical breakdown occurred as Ethereum breached the critical support zone at US$4,350 and the 100-hour Simple Moving Average around US$4,342. Such breaks often trigger automated stop-loss orders from algorithmic trading systems, accelerating the downward move.

The technical indicators confirmed the bearish shift. The RSI dipped to 42.24, showing weakening momentum, while the MACD histogram at -60.16 exhibited bearish divergence, meaning the price made a lower low but the momentum indicator did not confirm it strongly, often a sign of exhaustion before a potential reversal, though currently reinforcing the downtrend.

The immediate path of least resistance points lower, with the next significant support identified at the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level near US$4,344. A decisive close below this level could propel the price towards the stronger 50 per cent Fibonacci support at US$4,155. The second major factor was a substantial outflow from Ethereum ETFs.

On August 18, a significant US$196.6 million was withdrawn from these newly launched products, effectively reversing the positive momentum generated by earlier institutional interest. This outflow directly increased sell-side pressure in the spot market.

Compounding this, large holders, often termed whales, reduced their Ethereum holdings by approximately 1.2 million ETH, representing a value of roughly US$5 billion over the preceding 30 days. Such movements by major players historically erode market confidence and can trigger follow-on selling.

However, a nuanced detail offers a potential counterbalance. Smaller addresses, holding between 10 and 100 ETH often categorised as “sharks” representing active retail or smaller institutional players, accumulated a substantial 4.4 million ETH during the same period.

This suggests that while large entities retreated, a different segment of the market saw value at lower prices, potentially establishing a floor. The long-term picture retains a stabilising element, as approximately US$6.3 billion worth of Ethereum remains locked within the ETF structures, providing a foundational level of institutional support even during periods of outflow volatility.

A fragile global balance ahead

The convergence of these disparate market movements paints a picture of a global financial system operating under significant strain but not yet in crisis.

Political risks in Europe and Asia are actively pricing in potential instability, forcing investors to demand higher compensation for perceived sovereign and emerging market risks. Commodity markets react to both geopolitical friction and the underlying strength or weakness of the US dollar.

Within the volatile cryptocurrency sector, the divergent paths of Bitcoin and Ethereum underscore the maturation of the market. Bitcoin increasingly demonstrates characteristics of a macro asset, reacting to broader risk sentiment and attracting institutional capital flows even during downturns, while Ethereum remains more susceptible to technical breakdowns and specific product dynamics like ETF flows.

Traders globally are now intensely focused on upcoming US economic data, particularly the non-farm payrolls report. This data will be pivotal in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next moves on interest rates. A stronger-than-expected report could delay anticipated rate cuts, strengthening the dollar and increasing pressure on risk assets including equities and cryptocurrencies.

Conversely, weaker data could accelerate expectations for monetary easing, potentially providing relief across risk markets. The current environment demands constant vigilance. Thin holiday trading can amplify moves, political risks can escalate rapidly, and technical levels can trigger significant momentum shifts.

The stability observed in some areas, like the US Dollar Index, feels provisional, dependent on the next data point or political development. Investors must navigate a landscape where traditional correlations can fracture under stress, and localised political events can have outsized global financial repercussions.

The coming weeks will test whether the current market structure can absorb these pressures or if the underlying tensions will coalesce into a broader reassessment of risk across multiple asset classes. The path forward hinges on the interplay between political resolution, central bank communication, and the resilience of technical support levels holding firm against waves of selling pressure.

Source: https://e27.co/global-markets-navigate-political-fault-lines-as-technical-rebound-meets-institutional-crosscurrents-20250902/