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Can Ethereum clear US$2,672 this week and unlock a run to US$3,000?

Can Ethereum clear US$2,672 this week and unlock a run to US$3,000?

Ethereum gained 8.79 per cent over the last seven days. In 24 hours, Ether added 0.97 per cent to US$2,653.19. That performance beat Bitcoin’s 0.32 per cent gain. The wider crypto complex rose 1.04 per cent to US$2.81T.

The seven day move is not a random spike. It sits inside a strong shift into smaller tokens, especially Layer-1 and infrastructure names. The market shows a 66 per cent correlation with the Nasdaq-100 QQQ over seven days. That link signals a tech-driven and growth-sensitive tape. ETH rides that wave. It also faces a clear technical ceiling.

The rotation story is the primary pillar. Bitcoin dominance fell to 58.55 per cent. Capital moved from BTC into high-beta assets. Layer-1 tokens like NEAR gained 82 per cent weekly, and AVAX led the charge.

The Layer-1 category rose 6.96 per cent in seven days. The Data Availability narrative surged 75.18 per cent. Those numbers show traders hunt for outperformance beyond majors. ETH, as a leading alternative, benefits from this shift. The Altcoin Season Index increased 29.73 per cent over the past week. That gauge supports what price action shows.

Money moves down the risk curve. My take is that ETH’s 8.79 per cent seven day gain is a core part of this rotation, not the most explosive part. NEAR’s 82 per cent gain grabs headlines. ETH offers size, liquidity, and a cleaner institutional story. For many allocators, ETH is the safer way to express an altcoin view.

Technical momentum gives ETH its own fuel. The asset holds above its 50-week moving average near US$2,542. Its 24h trading volume rose 13.78 per cent to US$11.11B. That volume confirms buyer interest. The RSI-14 sits at 66.12. That reading suggests bullish momentum without being overbought. This is a healthy setup.

A rally on rising volume carries more weight than a quiet drift higher. Immediate resistance is the recent swing high of US$2,663.05. Key support is US$2,550 to US$2,575. If ETH holds that zone, the next target is US$2,950-US$3,000.

A daily close below US$2,550 would invalidate the near-term bullish structure and risk a deeper pullback toward US$2,400. The weekly close relative to the US$2,672 Fibonacci level is the most important trigger. In my reading, US$2,672 is the gatekeeper. A weekly close above it opens a clear path toward US$3,000. A failure there could trap late buyers and force consolidation.

Sentiment and flows support the move. The Fear & Greed Index is at 73, which signals Greed. US spot Bitcoin ETF AUM has grown to US$98.78B from US$86.37B a month ago. That growth indicates steady institutional accumulation. Positive ETF flow sentiment and technical breakouts amplify the rally. Leverage remains subdued. That reduces immediate squeeze risk. My view is that subdued leverage makes this rally less fragile than a leverage-driven melt-up.

It also means the move lacks forced buying from short squeezes. Sustainable upside needs continued spot demand and consistent ETF inflows. Daily ETF flow data matters here. Consistent inflows could provide a floor for the broader market and help ETH hold its support.

Macro correlation is the wild card. ETH shows 66 per cent correlation with the Nasdaq-100 ETF QQQ over the past week. The broader crypto market also shows 66 per cent correlation with QQQ over seven days. That shared link points to a macro-driven move. Growth expectations and tech-sector sentiment influence both assets.

The upcoming Glamsterdam network upgrade, with its Sepolia testnet scheduled for October 6, could renew fundamental interest in ETH. That gives ETH a coin-specific catalyst beyond the rotation trade. This catalyst could help ETH separate from pure beta if it arrives alongside stable macro conditions. If macro conditions shift, the same 66 per cent correlation could work against ETH. A growth scare would hit tech stocks and crypto together. So ETH’s bullish case rests on more than its own chart.

Bitcoin remains the anchor. The immediate trend hinges on BTC holding the US$81,000-US$82,000 support level. If BTC holds, altcoins like NEAR could test the next resistance near US$4.50. ETH could extend to US$2,950-US$3,000. If BTC breaks below US$79,000, profit-taking in altcoins may follow. That would likely pull ETH back toward its US$2,550-US$2,575 support zone.

A deeper break would risk US$2,400. ETH’s 8.79 per cent seven day gain is impressive, but it is conditional. Bitcoin dominance at 58.55 per cent shows rotation is real. BTC still sets the tone. A sharp drop in BTC would deflate the sector shift. So I watch BTC around US$81,000 as closely as I watch ETH around US$2,550.

The market outlook is bullish, with momentum and conditions. ETH’s rise continues its recovery trend. Solid volume and technical breaks back it. It rides a wave of altcoin rotation. The Altcoin Season Index, the Layer-1 gain, the Data Availability surge, and NEAR’s 82 per cent weekly move all confirm that capital seeks risk. The Fear & Greed Index at 73 and the ETF AUM growth to US$98.78B from US$86.37B add institutional backing. The 66 per cent correlation with QQQ adds macro sensitivity.

My final view is cautiously bullish but not blind. ETH can target US$2,950 to US$3,000 if it holds US$2,550 to US$2,575 and if BTC stays above US$81,000. The weekly close above US$2,672 is the signal that would confirm a clear path higher. A daily close below US$2,550 would flip the near-term bias.

The real question is whether altcoin leadership can hold if macro conditions shift. The evidence today supports continuation. The levels make the risk clear. ETH’s 8.79 per cent 7-day gain is a strong move. It remains a momentum trade with defined triggers. I would stay constructive while that floor holds and turn cautious if BTC loses US$79,000 or ETH closes below US$2,550.

Source: https://e27.co/can-ethereum-clear-us2672-this-week-and-unlock-a-run-to-us3000-20260921/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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The CLARITY Act vote could send crypto to US$2.73T or crash it to US$2.6T

The CLARITY Act vote could send crypto to US$2.73T or crash it to US$2.6T

Asian and global stocks declined today as the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield climbed above the critical five per cent threshold. That level pressures risk assets because it raises the discount rate applied to future corporate earnings. Semiconductor shares sold off sharply, dragging technology-heavy indices from Tokyo to New York. Investors are weighing two overlapping concerns.

The first is whether the pace of artificial intelligence growth can justify current valuations for chipmakers and related companies. The second is the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, which begins today. Markets widely price in a 25-basis-point rate hike. The combination of higher borrowing costs and uncertain earnings trajectories for AI-exposed firms created a risk-off tone across global markets.

The 10-year Treasury yield crossing 5 per cent represents more than a psychological milestone. It signals that bond investors demand greater compensation for holding longer-duration debt. For technology and semiconductor stocks, whose valuations often rely on profits projected years into the future, a higher discount rate compresses present value calculations. Those projected earnings become less attractive relative to safer alternatives. This dynamic explains why the semiconductor sector led declines even as other parts of the market showed more resilience.

Wall Street’s weakness in technology and semiconductors set the stage for downward pressure in Asia. Markets in the region opened lower and struggled to find footing throughout the session. The spillover effect was direct because many Asian economies integrate deeply into the global semiconductor supply chain.

Chipmakers and equipment suppliers in South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan felt the brunt of the selling pressure. Concerns about the pace of AI growth compounded the yield-driven valuation reset. Investors questioned whether the massive capital expenditure on AI infrastructure would translate into revenue and earnings at the pace and scale implied by current stock prices.

Commodity markets offered a mixed picture against this equity backdrop. Oil prices remained elevated near US$107 to US$108 per barrel for Brent crude, with persistent Middle East supply anxieties providing support. The elevated oil price adds another layer of inflation risk that the Federal Reserve must weigh as it deliberates policy.

Spot gold softened to around US$4,290 per ounce. Gold’s modest decline amid equity weakness and elevated oil prices suggests that some investors are liquidating assets to cover losses elsewhere. Another possibility is that the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset rises as Treasury yields climb.

The Federal Reserve’s policy meeting is the central event that markets brace for. Markets widely expect a 25-basis-point rate hike, so the decision itself may come as little surprise. The real focus will be on the Fed’s forward guidance and any signals about the terminal rate. If the Fed suggests that rates will remain higher for longer, equity markets could face renewed pressure. Any hint that the hiking cycle is nearing its end could provide relief. The behaviour of the 10-year note around 5 per cent will be critical. A sustained break above that level could trigger further de-risking across portfolios.

Turning to digital assets, the crypto market displayed a contrasting dynamic despite the broader risk-off environment in traditional equities. Bitcoin rose 1.58 per cent to US$78,119.75 over 24 hours, outperforming a flat technology sector. The total crypto market capitalisation increased 1.6 per cent to US$2.66 trillion.

This divergence is notable given the strong 72 per cent correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500. The primary catalyst for crypto’s resilience was political rather than macro. The US Senate scheduled a cloture vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act for September 15 at 2:15 PM Eastern Time. This bill seeks to delineate regulatory authority between the SEC and CFTC, providing legal clarity for major digital assets.

Prediction markets assigned a 31 per cent chance of passage for the CLARITY Act, which requires 60 votes to advance. Despite the uncertain outcome, traders positioned for reduced regulatory risk. A secondary factor amplified the crypto move. A sharp short squeeze in Ethereum wiped out US$105 million in shorts within one hour, with US$74 million of that total in ETH shorts. Total crypto liquidations reached US$109 million in that same hour. Over a 24-hour period, a derivatives flush cleared more than US$81 million in Bitcoin positions, a 100.83 per cent spike that reduced immediate selling pressure.

The crypto market’s technical picture mirrors the binary nature of its political catalyst. Bitcoin found support at the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of US$77,968 after bouncing from a swing low of US$76,367.37. If Bitcoin holds above that support, it could retest resistance at US$79,000 to US$80,000.

A break below US$76,370 risks a drop toward US$74,000. For the total crypto market cap, the pivot point sits at US$2.66 trillion. The next key resistance is the swing high of US$2.73 trillion. The 24-hour RSI of 56.04 suggests room for further upside if momentum continues, while the 30-day uptrend stands at 22.81 per cent. The 30-day SMA at US$2.61 trillion represents a downside level to watch.

The Altcoin Season Index rose 2.7 per cent, and the US Strategic Crypto Reserve narrative outperformed the broad market by 1.43 per cent today. These rotations indicate that capital is flowing into high-beta sectors ahead of the regulatory catalyst. Ethereum’s ability to hold above US$2,600 will be a key gauge of rotation sustainability, as will Bitcoin’s dominance relative to other cryptocurrencies, which currently sits at 29.55 per cent.

The Federal Reserve’s rate decision on September 16 serves as the immediate macro trigger for both traditional and digital assets. Markets expect a hike. For equities, the combination of a 5 per cent 10-year yield and the Fed’s intent to tighten financial conditions creates a challenging backdrop.

The AI growth narrative, which powered much of the 2026 rally in semiconductor stocks, now faces scrutiny. Investors want evidence that AI investments generate returns, not just promises. For crypto, the path higher depends on conquering resistance levels and on renewed demand from spot Bitcoin ETF flows. That demand is necessary for a sustained breakout.

In conclusion, global markets find themselves at an inflection point defined by three forces.

  • The first is the 5 per cent threshold on the US 10-year Treasury yield, which resets valuations across risk assets.
  • The second is the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting and its guidance on rates.
  • The third is the political process surrounding crypto regulation, which has temporarily decoupled digital assets from equities.

Asian and global stocks declined today because the first two forces dominate near-term sentiment. The crypto market’s resilience hinges on a binary political event that could quickly reverse if the Senate vote fails.

For now, the market outlook remains one of tense consolidation, awaiting macro and political clarity. The key watch is whether spot Bitcoin ETF flows turn positive again after last week’s US$462.7 million outflows, providing the demand needed for a sustained breakout.

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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Bitcoin drops to US$76,796.54 as 91% S&P 500 correlation exposes crypto’s macro trap

Bitcoin drops to US$76,796.54 as 91% S&P 500 correlation exposes crypto’s macro trap

The crypto market is working through a sharp pullback. In the last 24 hours, total market cap fell 1.74 per cent to US$2.62T. Bitcoin led the decline. The largest digital asset dropped 1.87 per cent to US$76,796.54. This move did not happen alone. It tracked a broader sell-off across traditional finance. The 91 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 shows macro forces are driving price action. That link matters because crypto is trading as a risk asset, not as a safe haven.

The US PPI for August arrived on September 10 and served as the main trigger. Annual inflation reached 5.4 per cent. That result came in above expectations. The data revived fears that the Federal Reserve will raise rates or keep policy tight. Treasury yields moved higher. Stocks, gold, and crypto all fell at the same time. Bitcoin sold off as liquidity concerns and weaker investor appetite hit risk markets. The next test is the CPI report on September 11. That print will shape the odds of a rate hike before the Fed meeting on September 15-16.

Market structure made the drop worse. A wave of long liquidations hit the derivatives market. Over 24 hours, forced liquidations closed US$96.53M in BTC positions. Long bets made up 90 per cent of that total. Total open interest had risen 10.84 per cent before the move. New leverage had entered the system. When prices turned lower, forced selling created a feedback loop. That loop added downward pressure beyond what the inflation report alone would suggest. The same pattern appeared across the wider market. BTC liquidations totalled US$96.53M over 24 hours, up 16.35 per cent. Open interest across derivatives rose 9.11 per cent to US$462.13B. High leverage remains a clear risk.

Sentiment has cooled. The Fear & Greed Index fell from 75 last week to 67. That shift moved the mood from extreme greed to caution. The total market cap broke below its pivot point of US$2.61T. It also fell under its seven-day moving average of US$2.67T. The August rally has lost momentum. The sector is now in a corrective phase as speculative heat leaves the market. The RSI(7) sits at 30.02. That reading suggests the market is nearing oversold territory. If buyers return, the decline could slow.

For Bitcoin, the immediate test is the US$76,000 to US$76,350 range. This zone reflects the average cost basis for active investors. Buyers have defended it many times. If the price holds above this support, Bitcoin could stabilise and trade between US$76,000 and US$79,400 before the CPI release. A decisive break below US$76,000 would open a path toward US$73,000. A close above US$79,400 would signal a return to the uptrend.

For the total market, the path depends on the US$2.59T level. That level matches the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci support. A hold there could lead to range-bound trading between US$2.59T and US$2.67T. A daily close below US$2.59T would target the next support at US$2.51T, the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci level. A US$2.67T reclaim would indicate stabilisation. The market remains in a corrective phase within a larger uptrend. It is still up 19.65 per cent over 30 days. The key question is whether support attracts buyers or whether liquidations drive a deeper flush.

Macro data will likely decide the next move. The CPI release is the major cue. A hot reading could extend the risk-off mood and trigger another leg down. A cooler reading could give buyers a reason to step in. The correlation with the S&P 500 reached 91 per cent and 92 per cent in two readings. The link with gold reached 87 per cent. This highlights how sensitive crypto has become to macro liquidity sentiment. This is not a market-moving story on its own. It is moving with the broader financial system.

On the regulatory front, Senate Republicans released a revised CLARITY Act. The bill runs 630 pages. It aims to establish a federal framework for digital assets while tightening regulations on non-decentralised DeFi and stablecoins. Senator Cynthia Lummis led the effort. The text includes more than 100 changes requested by Democrats. It rebrands Title I as the Lummis-Gillibrand Responsible Financial Innovation Act of 2026. Lawmakers designed the bill as a broad federal framework rather than a narrow crypto adjustment.

The revised bill would split oversight between the SEC and CFTC. It would formalise how regulators would oversee exchanges, brokers, and protocols. It introduces detailed language for non-decentralised finance protocols that people or groups can control or materially alter. Those protocols would have to register with the CFTC. The text narrows DeFi rules to spot and cash digital commodities. For DeFi, the bill draws a line between genuinely decentralised protocols and those that are decentralised in name only. Participating in governance or security councils does not, by itself, constitute control. Protocols that identifiable actors can steer would be subject to CFTC registration and rulemaking. That rulemaking would focus on spot and cash digital commodity markets and address concerns about prediction markets and similar products.

Payment stablecoins would face a ban on passive interest or yield on idle balances. The bill would still allow activity-based rewards under negotiated language in Section 404. The White House and industry regard this compromise as settled. Bank lobbying continues. Developer protections remain. They aim to shield non-controlling software authors from being treated as money transmitters simply for publishing code.

If Congress enacts it, major DeFi and stablecoin projects operating in the United States would need clearer compliance strategies. Many pure-protocol developers could gain a safer legal footing. This mix could reshape compliance planning for large platforms while offering greater protection for developers who do not control user funds or protocol decisions.

The next step is a cloture vote on 15 September 2026. The motion requires 60 senators to agree to proceed. Republicans hold 53 seats. At least seven Democrats or independents must support it. Some Democratic aides call unresolved ethics disputes the biggest stumbling block. Law enforcement and banking groups push competing changes to ethics and stablecoin language. Prediction markets and research desks assign relatively low odds that the bill will become law in 2026. Failure at this stage could push comprehensive US crypto legislation back several years. That outcome would leave SEC and CFTC rulemaking as the main path for crypto regulation. Confidence in the text and vote timing is moderate because multiple independent reports agree. Political outcomes remain uncertain.

The revised CLARITY Act is the most concrete attempt so far to give US crypto markets a formal federal rulebook, especially for DeFi, exchanges, and stablecoins. Whether it advances on 15 September will shape how quickly US based projects can plan around stable rules rather than piecemeal regulation. Crypto users should watch that vote and any follow-up agency rulemaking as key signals for the regulatory regime they will face.

In my view, the current dip is a natural cooldown after a strong monthly rally, which a leverage unwind sharpened. The high correlation with traditional markets shows that crypto remains sensitive to macro liquidity sentiment. The near-term outlook is cautiously bearish. Momentum has shifted to sellers. Stability depends on holding the key support zone. Bitcoin must defend US$76,000 in the hours leading up to the CPI release. If it fails, macro fears could trigger another leg down. If it holds, the market may find room to consolidate and wait for clearer data.

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-drops-to-us76796-54-as-91-sp-500-correlation-exposes-cryptos-macro-trap-20260911/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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