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Bitcoin’s US$61,789 breakdown: Why geopolitics just overrode every technical indicator

Bitcoin’s US$61,789 breakdown: Why geopolitics just overrode every technical indicator

Today, Bitcoin trades at US$61,789.80, reflecting a 1.36 per cent decline over the past 24 hours. This drop mirrors a broader 1.17 per cent contraction in the total crypto market capitalisation. Mainstream commentators attribute this movement entirely to a sudden risk reaction.

My independent analysis reveals a more complex convergence of geopolitical shocks and institutional liquidity drains. The immediate catalyst for this sell-off is escalating tensions in the Middle East. President Donald Trump announced a military response after Iran shot down an Apache helicopter. This geopolitical shock instantly triggered a flight from risk assets across global markets.

Bitcoin behaved precisely as a correlated risk asset in this environment, dropping to an intraday low near US$60,892 before buyers stepped in. We see this exact same behaviour in traditional equities. The S&P 500 briefly dipped 2.2 per cent on the news before recovering into the close. Major benchmarks finished mixed, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed only a marginal gain. This tight correlation between cryptocurrency and traditional tech-heavy indices confirms that institutional algorithms currently treat digital assets as an extension of the broader risk complex.

Structural weaknesses in institutional demand continue to suppress price action beyond the geopolitical headline. U.S.-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds extended their outflow streak, underscoring a persistent lack of buy-side conviction. Analysts at Wintermute correctly point out that this environment reflects weak institutional inflows rather than outright panic.

This specific dynamic makes establishing a durable bottom incredibly difficult. Concurrently, the market experienced a severe leverage flush. Traders lost over US$112 million in Bitcoin long positions within a single day. This forced liquidation accelerated the downward momentum and punished overextended speculators.

I have always viewed highly leveraged crypto trading as a form of gambling with slightly better odds than a casino. The liquidations simply represent the house collecting its due. The removal of this excess leverage clears the order book and sets the stage for potentially less volatile price discovery in the coming sessions. We must also contextualise this crypto sell-off within the broader global macroeconomic environment to fully grasp the implications. Technology stocks face their own headwinds. The 3.6 per cent drop in Apple shares following the final World Wide Developer Conference keynote from CEO Tim Cook highlights these pressures. Shares had already fallen close to two per cent on Monday due to poor market reception of the Siri artificial intelligence update.

The market now turns its attention entirely to the macroeconomic data driving central bank policy. The government will release the May United States Consumer Price Index report on June 10. This print serves as the primary directional catalyst for the near term. Consensus expects headline inflation to rise to 4.2 per cent.

This expectation follows an April inflation reading of 3.8 per cent year-on-year. That April figure marked the highest level since 2023. A massive 17.9 per cent jump in energy costs largely drove that previous spike. If the May data prints cooler than expected, we could see a relief rally pushing Bitcoin toward the US$64,000 resistance level. Conversely, a hot inflation reading will reinforce hawkish monetary policy and likely force a retest of the critical US$60,000 support zone.

From a technical perspective, the current market structure demands careful observation from all active market participants. Bitcoin currently trades below key moving averages and maintains a bearish short-term trend. The Relative Strength Index on the 14-day timeframe sits at 23.89. This deeply oversold condition suggests that a technical bounce remains highly probable. A cooler inflation print could fuel a rally targeting the US$64,000 level, which aligns perfectly with the 78.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level. If buyers fail to defend the US$60,000 support, the price will likely cascade toward the next major liquidity zone around US$55,000. Traders must watch the US$64,000-US$66,000 supply zone closely. A decisive reclaim of those levels would provide the first technical confirmation of strengthening momentum.

Global trade and corporate spending metrics provide further context for this market environment. China reported robust May exports, rising 19.4 per cent year on year, and imports jumped 27.4 per cent. This beat expectations and widened the trade surplus to US$103.22 billion. Meanwhile, Bank of America warns clients to take profits because seven of its 10 bear-market signposts have been triggered. They highlight that hyperscaler capital expenditure will soon hit 100 per cent of operating cash flow. This contrasts starkly with the 40 per cent ratio from 2023.

These megacorporations will soon spend every dollar they generate on AI infrastructure. Investor demand in other sectors shows an immense appetite for new tech ventures. SpaceX’s initial public offering demand now reportedly approaches 4 times oversubscribed levels. Commodity markets also reflect this complex web of geopolitical and economic pressures across the globe today. Oil retreated after the US Energy Secretary noted that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is increasing. This observation eased the supply premium created by tensions with Iran.

The confluence of geopolitical stress and institutional selling has driven Bitcoin lower. A sustained reversal requires either diplomatic de-escalation or a positive macroeconomic surprise from the inflation data. I will continue to monitor these structural shifts independently and look past the mainstream narratives. Identifying the true drivers of value in this evolving financial landscape demands rigorous analysis and a forward-looking perspective. The market is at a critical inflexion point, with macroeconomic data set to dictate the next major price move.

Based on what I see and referencing the historical cycle structures, US$44,XXX represents a high-probability macro floor, but it is the deep end, not the baseline, of the expected bottoming range.

Source:
 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

From US$60K to US$55K: The data pointing to Bitcoin’s next leg down

From US$60K to US$55K: The data pointing to Bitcoin’s next leg down

Bitcoin currently sits at US$62,864.20 and presents a truly fascinating case study in market manipulation and leveraged gambling. Many retail participants mistakenly view the recent price action as a genuine recovery. The current rally completely lacks genuine structural support. The US$60,000 level demonstrates weak buying pressure, and we have witnessed three lower lows since mid-May. This technical reality signals that large buyers simply refuse to accumulate at these prices. Derivative mechanics, rather than underlying utility or true decentralisation, dictate this market.

The recent price spike originates directly from a massive and highly coordinated liquidation event. Exchanges aggressively wiped out roughly US$599 million of leveraged positions in a single 24-hour window. Short sellers absorbed the vast majority of this pain, accounting for approximately US$455 million of the losses, while long traders lost US$144 million.

Total liquidation figures across various platforms range between US$588 million and US$655 million, with short losses exceeding US$500 million. This violent repricing pushed the total crypto market capitalisation from US$2.06 trillion to roughly US$2.19 trillion. Bears who piled into short positions near the bottom took severe damage. Their forced buybacks artificially propelled the rally higher. This dynamic perfectly illustrates my long-held belief that speculative trading in both crypto and traditional stocks operates primarily like a casino, where leverage dictates immediate price action.

We must examine the sentiment driving these leveraged bets to understand the fragility of this rebound. The preceding week saw Bitcoin drop nearly 14 per cent and briefly trade below US$60,000. That severe drawdown pushed the Fear and Greed Index into extreme fear territory, registering a reading in the mid 10s. Market participants positioned themselves heavily for a continued collapse. Such extreme positioning usually precedes a violent correction in the opposite direction once the initial catalyst exhausts itself.

Derivatives data reveal that open interest actually rose by nearly US$1 billion during this period, indicating that traders simply reloaded their leverage rather than stepping aside. High leverage combined with extreme pessimism creates a highly volatile environment. The market merely flushed out the crowded bearish positions, resetting the board for the next directional move.

Despite the flashy rebound, the underlying data points to further downside. Technical and on-chain metrics show deep conflict, but the bearish signals carry more weight. Institutional flows continue to register as negative, proving that smart money refuses to chase this relief rally. Furthermore, realised losses currently stand at US$174 billion. This figure sits below the US$211 billion peak we observed during the last bear market, but it still represents massive capital destruction.

The recent rally looks increasingly like a classic bull trap. A move toward US$55,000 looks far more likely as the market seeks true price discovery. Traders who mistake this short squeeze for a macro trend reversal will likely face severe consequences.

We cannot analyse cryptocurrency in a vacuum, as digital assets correlate highly with traditional macroeconomic forces. The recent crypto volatility mirrors the exact same pressures battering Wall Street. Traditional markets finished mixed recently, but the underlying breadth tells a much darker story. The S&P 500 managed a mere 0.30 per cent gain after rising as much as 1.13 per cent in early trade. The Dow Jones Industrial Average actually fell 0.16 per cent. This weakness follows a brutal Friday session where the Nasdaq plummeted 4.18 per cent, marking its worst performance since April 2025. A stronger-than-expected May jobs report triggered this equity rout, forcing traders to reprice their interest rate expectations.

The bond market perfectly captures this shifting macroeconomic reality. The US two-year yield jumped 10 basis points immediately following the jobs report. Fed funds futures now price in 21 basis points of rate hikes by the end of the year, a significant increase from the 13 basis points priced prior to the employment data. This rising cost of capital directly pressures risk assets across the board. Investors clearly recognise that higher borrowing costs will inevitably compress corporate valuations and reduce speculative appetite across all asset classes. When traditional finance tightens, liquidity dries up in the crypto casino. We also see this pressure in commodities, where Brent crude oil whipsawed between US$94 and US$98 following direct military exchanges between Israel and Iran. Global capital faces immense stress from both inflationary pressures and geopolitical instability.

Global equity markets show even more severe fractures when we look beyond US indices. The KOSPI index tumbled 8.2 per cent, triggering a trading halt as investors aggressively dumped tech stocks amid rising inflation concerns. Wall Street strategists attempt to project optimism to calm the masses. Citigroup recently raised its S&P 500 target to 8,100 from 7,700, citing stronger earnings forecasts. Nvidia executives publicly frame the global tech selloff as a buying opportunity. Tech companies also provide shiny distractions, with Micron bouncing 9.8 per cent after sliding 13 per cent the previous day, and Google ordering 3 million AI chips from Intel for 2028 production. These corporate manoeuvres mask the fundamental reality that the market faces a flood of mega IPOs and equity offerings that threaten to overwhelm available buyer capital. SpaceX also saw its initial public offering become well oversubscribed before order books closed on Wednesday afternoon.

The current market environment perfectly encapsulates the profound flaws of our centralised financial system. Whether participants trade Bitcoin on a crypto exchange or buy tech stocks on the Nasdaq, they actively engage in the exact same speculative gambling where leverage and macroeconomic manipulation dictate the outcomes.

 

Source:
 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Why US$60K is the most important number in crypto right now

Why US$60K is the most important number in crypto right now

Bitcoin gained 2.62 per cent to reach US$63,048.16 over a 24-hour period. This price action closely tracks a 2.51 per cent rise in the total crypto market capitalisation. The entire digital asset market simply rebounds from multi-week lows. The Fear and Greed Index currently sits at an extreme fear reading of 15.

This metric confirms that broad market sentiment dictates the price action rather than any catalyst specific to Bitcoin. The broader market still remains down over 12 per cent for the week. We witness a relief rally operating within a larger downtrend. Participants must watch for sustained growth in market capitalisation above US$2.2 trillion to confirm a genuine shift away from bearish momentum. We must look past these temporary fluctuations and focus on the underlying network fundamentals.

Derivatives activity provides the mechanical explanation for this sudden upward push. Bitcoin open interest rose five per cent in the last 24 hours. This metric indicates fresh capital entering leveraged positions. Concurrently, liquidations totaled US$108.03 million. This figure represents a 19.41 per cent increase from the prior day. These numbers point directly to a squeeze of highly leveraged short positions during the upward move.

The price rise was significantly amplified by forced buying as the market liquidated these shorts. Traders should monitor the average funding rate for a flip from negative to positive. Such a shift would signal growing bullish leverage and confirm the strength of this derivatives-fueled bounce. I always treat these leveraged squeezes as speculative gambling where the odds temporarily favour the bulls. The underlying trend requires much more than a short squeeze to reverse.

Institutional flow data presents a more fragile picture of the current market structure. ETF assets under management experienced slight outflows. The total dropped from US$105.32 billion last week to US$102.05 billion currently. This capital withdrawal contradicts the retail frenzy we see in the derivatives market. The immediate technical path hinges entirely on holding the US$62,000 support level. A successful defence of this floor could propel the price toward the US$65,000 resistance zone.

The market needs a daily close above US$64,500 to signal stronger bullish conviction. Without this conviction, the asset risks falling back into the US$60,000 to US$64,000 consolidation range. The trend appears to be stabilising right now, but it remains highly vulnerable amid a multi-week decline. I monitor these ETF flows closely because they reveal the true appetite of traditional finance amid macroeconomic uncertainty. Smart money moves cautiously before major economic announcements, and this behaviour perfectly illustrates that approach.

We cannot analyse these crypto movements in a vacuum because traditional macroeconomic forces dictate global liquidity. The tape repriced everything on Friday when the May jobs report came in hot and wages firmed. This data landed on a market already nervous about inflation.

The last Consumer Price Index print stayed uncomfortably high in annual terms. Producer Price Index readings remain warm, and the current tariff regime continues feeding into prices. A strong labour market and sticky inflation lead to only one conclusion. The Federal Reserve possesses no room to cut rates and has a real reason to maintain a hard stance. The market performed the mathematics in real time. Market participants pulled forward rate-hike expectations, the 10-year yield jumped toward 4.71 per cent, and the US$ broke higher. Gold and equities subsequently took the hit. This environment highlights the inherent flaws in centralised monetary policy. Policymakers react to past data instead of anticipating future realities, creating endless cycles of boom and bust.

This inflation reckoning arrives right before the first Federal Open Market Committee meeting for the new leadership. Markets trade the May data through the lens of Kevin Warsh. He serves as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve and took the oath on May 22. Jerome Powell remains a voting Governor. Warsh will preside over his first meeting from June 16 to 17.

The market already decided what it expects from this transition. With a hot labour market, sticky inflation, and tariffs still in the system, a new Chair who built his reputation as an inflation hawk has every incentive to come out hard. He needs to establish credibility from day one. This logic drives the current repricing of rate hikes. A hot Consumer Price Index print hands Warsh the cover to sound hawkish and keeps the USD bid. A soft reading provides the only thing that can take the edge off this move. We will see exactly what kind of leader he truly is very soon.

This macroeconomic tightening also accelerates the push toward decentralised alternatives. As central banks tighten their grip to fight inflation, they simultaneously accelerate the development of Central Bank Digital Currencies. I view these retail digital currencies as ultimate surveillance tools and mechanisms of control. They represent the exact opposite of the financial freedom that Bitcoin provides. When traditional institutions restrict liquidity and monitor every transaction, the value proposition of a permissionless network becomes undeniable. The current inflationary environment forces policymakers into a corner. They must choose between crushing the economy with high rates or allowing inflation to erode the currency.

This dilemma drives visionary individuals and institutions toward assets that operate outside their direct control. The resilience of the Bitcoin network during these periods of extreme monetary tightening proves its viability as a sovereign store of value. People increasingly recognise that true ownership requires absolute independence from government interference and centralised banking systems.

The underlying architecture of Bitcoin demonstrates remarkable structural integrity despite this overwhelming macroeconomic pressure. The psychological floor of this market reveals itself in the order book dynamics. Bid density increases significantly by 42 per cent as the price approaches the US$60,000 threshold. This metric correlates perfectly with the Glassnode Production Cost Metric and the Miner Shutdown Price. Staying above US$60,000 is the mission now.

 

Source: https://e27.co/why-us60k-is-the-most-important-number-in-crypto-right-now-20260608/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j