The 2 reports describe a risk-off episode from different angles. Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $74,577.82 in 24 hours while the broader crypto market dropped 1.52% to $2.5 trillion. That move underperformed a wider market that fell 1.98% and was 91% correlated with the S&P 500 over the past week. This decline reflects a technical deleveraging shock layered on top of a macro risk-off move. Liquidation data explains the speed, and macro data explains the direction.
The primary cause was a cascade of leveraged long liquidations. More than $1 billion in crypto leveraged positions closed in the 24 hours leading up to November 6, and Bitcoin accounted for $224.65 million of that total. Long positions made up the vast majority, with a report putting longs above 88% and another at 96%. Bitcoin long liquidations spiked over 3339% in 24 hours to $224.65 million. That spike matters because forced selling creates a feedback loop. Traders who expected higher prices had to exit, and their exits pushed prices lower, which triggered more exits. The market had grown over-leveraged on the long side. This is why the move looked violent rather than orderly. The rapid unwind suggests a flush of speculative excess, and such a flush can sometimes clear the way for a more stable base. The immediate signal to watch is stabilization in Bitcoin’s 24-hour liquidation totals, which spiked by over 3300%. A return to normal levels would point to reduced selling pressure. The average funding rate also plunged 75%, which can help signal when leveraged selling pressure may subside.
Secondary causes split into 2 connected channels. The first came from traditional risk assets. The Nasdaq fell 5.5% on November 5 amid concerns about AI-sector growth, and Bitcoin’s high correlation with tech stocks dragged crypto lower. The other came from institutional flows. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock’s, saw multi-day net outflows, with a reported $104.97 million sale adding direct sell-side pressure.
A separate report also pointed to regulatory uncertainty after U.S. authorities moved to block transactions involving MEXC Global and alleged $16 billion in illicit activity. That headline added to the risk-off tone. My view is that the regulatory item matters less for its direct size than for its timing. It arrived while the market was already fragile, and it likely reduced liquidity and confidence. The move did not come from blockchain-specific news. It came from sensitivity to traditional risk assets, institutional flow trends, and a sudden regulatory headline. The 2 reports differ in emphasis, but they agree on the transmission path. A macro shock hit risk assets, ETF outflows added supply, and the liquidation engine amplified the result.
Near-term outlook hinges on a price floor and macro data. Bitcoin traded below its key 7-day and 30-day Simple Moving Averages. Its 200-day Simple Moving Average stood at $73,187.78, serving as a major floor. The immediate catalyst is the US October Consumer Price Index report on November 10. A hotter-than-expected print could renew rate fears and pressure risk assets. A cooler reading might offer relief. On the market-cap side, the crypto sector tested a critical floor between $2.49 trillion and $2.5 trillion, which aligned with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A hold above that floor and a reduction in liquidation volume could pave the way for a short-term rebound. Failure to hold could lead to a test of the 200-day moving average near $2.48 trillion. Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim $2.56 trillion, the 78.6% Fibonacci level, and subsequent ETF flow data would help gauge institutional conviction. The asset needs to reclaim the 7-day Simple Moving Average near $77,159 to signal a potential recovery. The key zone is $73,188 to $74,795. A decisive break below could trigger another leg down. This zone matters because it sits close to both the Bitcoin 200-day level and the market-cap floor. That overlap gives traders a clean line to watch.
My point of view is that bearish pressure is real but narrower than the headline suggests. The sell-off looks primarily like a technical deleveraging event, magnified by thin weekend liquidity and regulatory headlines. The long liquidation flush may be nearing exhaustion, but the overall trend remains weak until key resistance levels return. I would not treat a brief bounce as a trend change. I would want to see liquidation totals normalize, funding rates stabilize, and Bitcoin defend the 200-day Simple Moving Average near $73,188. I would also want ETF flows to stop subtracting from demand. The macro side is equally important. The 91% correlation with the S&P 500 over the past week tells me Bitcoin is trading as a risk asset right now. That means the CPI release on November 10 can matter more than any crypto-specific headline. If inflation data comes in hot, rate fears could renew pressure on risk assets and make the $73,188 floor test more likely. If inflation data comes in cool, relief could help Bitcoin stabilize and attempt a reclaim of the 7-day Simple Moving Average near $77,159. I see the regulatory headline as a timing issue rather than the root cause. It made an already crowded trade more vulnerable. A relief bounce can happen without a full trend reversal, and I would treat it as a chance to see whether leverage has truly reset.
Bitcoin’s decline combines a macro risk-off event and an internal deleveraging shock. The liquidation flush may be nearing exhaustion, but the trend remains weak until key resistance levels return. The central question is whether Bitcoin can defend its 200-day Simple Moving Average following the US CPI release, or whether breaking it opens the door to deeper losses. The market needs time and calmer leverage conditions more than it needs a dramatic catalyst. A quiet stabilization in liquidation totals and funding rates would do more for the outlook than a sharp relief rally that rests on thin liquidity. The next few sessions should reveal whether this was a flush or the start of a deeper repricing.
https://e27.co/bitcoin-tests-us73188-can-the-200-day-line-stop-the-slide-20261109/
Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.