The crypto market woke up on August 3 with a modest but telling pair of gains. Bitcoin climbed 0.55 per cent to US$63,220.03 over the past 24 hours while Ethereum advanced 1.07 per cent to US$1,871.70. The broader sector added 0.70 per cent. On the surface, these figures suggest a quiet recovery. Dig beneath them and a far more complex picture emerges, one shaped by leveraged speculation, geopolitical relief, and a fragile institutional backdrop that could shift at the first sign of macro turbulence. This moment is not a genuine turning point but a tense equilibrium in which traders are placing bets ahead of catalysts that have not yet materialised.
Bitcoin tells the more cautionary story. The single most striking data point is the 34.4 per cent surge in perpetual futures open interest to US$372.31B within one day. The average funding rate more than doubled to +0.0075 per cent. These numbers reveal that traders are aggressively rebuilding long positions and paying a premium to maintain them. In plain terms, the market is borrowing heavily to push prices higher. I find this deeply significant because it suggests the current uptick is supported by very little organic spot demand. When leverage drives price action, the rally tends to be fast and brittle. A sudden shift in sentiment or a spike in funding costs can trigger a cascade of liquidations that erases gains in hours.
What makes the Bitcoin picture even more fragile is the absence of institutional backing. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded US$265M in outflows on August 2. Capital is leaving these products rather than entering them. At the same time, the broader market sentiment index sits at 35, firmly in Fear territory. News flow remains dominated by negative developments, such as the Coldcard exploit. I interpret this combination as a warning sign. Traders are piling into derivatives while institutional money walks away. That divergence has historically preceded sharp corrections. The price may grind higher in the short term, but without spot buying to validate the move, I see limited upside before a potential pullback.
Technically, Bitcoin faces resistance at its 7-day simple moving average near US$63,613, followed by the more formidable US$64,500 to US$65,000 zone. A floor rests at US$62,000. A break below that level risks a slide toward US$60,000. The U.S. jobs report scheduled for August 7 will likely determine the market’s direction. Cool employment figures could ease expectations of Federal Reserve tightening and give bulls a reason to push higher. Hot numbers would reinforce the case for elevated rates and pressure risk assets including crypto. The jobs report will be the single most important near-term catalyst for Bitcoin, far more impactful than any technical level on its own.
Ethereum presents a different narrative. Its 1.07 per cent gain slightly outpaced the broader sector and appears tied to a genuine macro catalyst rather than pure leverage. President Donald Trump cancelled planned military strikes against Iran, contingent on a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Bloomberg reported this development, and markets responded immediately. The cancellation reduced the oil price risk premium, lowered inflation fears, and lifted spirits across risk assets including crypto. I view this as a legitimate relief rally. Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum’s move has a clear external trigger that explains why buyers stepped in.
Beyond geopolitics, Ethereum benefits from tangible institutional demand. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs attracted US$365.17M in net inflows during July, marking their strongest month in 2026 and reversing prior outflows. Derivatives activity adds another layer of conviction. The average funding rate increased 32.48 per cent to +0.0062929 per cent, indicating rising long positioning and speculative bullishness. This combination of ETF flows and derivatives engagement is more encouraging than what Bitcoin currently offers. It suggests that at least some capital is flowing into Ethereum through traditional investment channels rather than purely through leveraged bets.
Ethereum is testing a floor in the US$1,850-US$1,870 range. Holding this zone is critical for another attempt at the US$1,880 to US$1,910 ceiling, which aligns with the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at US$1,875.40. A failure to hold would target the next demand area near US$1,750. The August 12 U.S. inflation report represents the next major macro trigger. Cooler readings could reinforce expectations for Fed easing and support further advances. A hot print would likely renew hawkish expectations and weigh on prices. In my opinion, Ethereum has a slightly better risk-reward setup than Bitcoin right now because its gains rest on a broader foundation of institutional flows and geopolitical relief rather than leveraged speculation alone.
Stepping back, I see both assets caught in a waiting game. The sector lacks a powerful fundamental driver to push a sustained directional move. Bitcoin leans on derivatives leverage that could evaporate quickly. Ethereum leans on macro sentiment, which could reverse just as quickly if geopolitical tensions reignite or inflation disappoints. The total crypto market cap rose just 0.70 per cent, which tells me that conviction remains thin. Traders are positioning but not committing.
My view is that the next two weeks will define the trajectory for both assets through the rest of August. If Bitcoin holds US$62,000 and absorbs the August 7 jobs report without a breakdown, a test of US$64,500 to US$65,000 becomes plausible. If it loses that floor, the path toward US$60,000 opens quickly. For Ethereum, the key is whether it can convert the US$1,880-US$1,910 ceiling into new support after the August 12 inflation release. Success there would signal a potential shift in trend. Failure would likely drag the price back toward US$1,750.
I remain cautiously neutral with a slight lean toward Ethereum over Bitcoin in the immediate term. The reason is straightforward. Ethereum has multiple pillars of support, including ETF inflows, geopolitical relief, and rising derivatives activity. Bitcoin has leverage and little else. In a market starved for conviction, the asset with broader backing tends to outperform when conditions tighten. That said, neither asset has broken free of its recent range, and I would not chase either one aggressively until volume confirms a genuine breakout. The smartest approach right now is patience, tight risk management, and close attention to the macro calendar. The next catalyst is coming. The question is whether traders will be positioned correctly when it arrives.
Source: https://e27.co/why-i-am-leaning-ethereum-over-bitcoin-right-now-despite-the-hype-20260803/
Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.
Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.
An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.